Retail

Why Coach Earnings Aren't Raising Investors' Spirits

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Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) reported fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 earnings Tuesday. For the quarter, the luxury goods maker posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 on revenues of $1.15 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $0.29 on revenues of $1 billion. Fourth-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.41 and $1.17 billion in revenues.

For the full year, Coach posted adjusted EPS of $1.98, compared with a total of $1.92 in the prior year. Full-year revenues were also up, at $4.49 billion compared with $4.18 billion a year ago. Analysts were forecasting EPS of $1.93 on revenues of $4.56 billion. Fiscal year 2016 included one additional week, which added $0.07 per share to earnings.

Coach shares have added more than 14% over the past 12 months, performing somewhat better than the S&P 500, which has risen by 12.6% in the same period. Operating margin improved by 200%, from 3.9% to 10.1% on a GAAP basis and by 39%, from 12.6% to 15.1% on a non-GAAP basis.

The company’s CEO, Victor Luis, said:

Our strong fourth quarter results – in which we achieved positive North America comparable store sales and drove increases across key financial metrics- capped a year where we returned the Coach brand to growth. … Most importantly, we achieved the expected inflection in profitability, as we leveraged our expenses on the growth in the business.

In its outlook for the 2017 fiscal year, Coach expects revenue to rise by low-to-mid single digits, including an expected benefit of 100 to 150 basis points related to currency exchange effects. Operating margin is forecast at 18.5% to 19% and net income and EPS are projected to grow at double-digit rates. Analysts have forecast 2017 EPS at $2.20 on revenues of $4.67 billion.

The company’s EPS outlook is a little below the current analyst forecast, while the revenue forecast is at the low end of Coach’s guidance. At best a mixed bag, and combined with the lower-than-expected revenues for the quarter and the full 2016 fiscal year will probably weigh on shares in Tuesday trading.

Shares traded down about 3.3% in Tuesday’s premarket, at $40.10 in a 52-week range of $27.22 to $43.71. The consensus 12-month target price for the stock was $43.59 before the report.

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