Is Urban Outfitters About to Get Crushed?

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Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) watched its shares pull back on Tuesday after the retailer received a downgrade from Deutsche Bank. Although this stock has made great strides in just the past quarter, up 25%, Deutsche Bank’s Tiffany Kanaga believes that Urban Outfitters will be giving some of it back.

Since Urban Outfitters dipped in mid-August, the stock’s multiple has expanded about 3.5 turns, compared to consensus earnings for fiscal 2018. Deutsche Bank pointed out at this level the multiple sits above the three-year average and sharply defies the multiyear contraction trend.

As a result, Deutsche Bank downgraded Urban Outfitters to a Sell rating from Hold. The main driving force behind this downgrade is that the company has gained about 43% since mid-August, outperforming the S&P 500, which is only up 3%.

Keep in mind that the stock has dropped about 30% in the past 52 weeks. The stock has seen a similar performance looking back over the past five years.

Same-store sales for September are expected soon, and third-quarter financial results are coming next month. These could act as catalysts and push the stock back down. Other similar retailers (L Brands, Zumiez and Buckle) are a reporting their September sales shortly as well, which could give a clearer picture of what to expect from Urban Outfitters.

A few other analysts had this to say about Urban Outfitters:

  • Jefferies has a Buy rating with a $25 price target.
  • RBC has a Hold rating with a $21 price target.
  • BMO Capital Markets has a Hold rating and a $20 target.
  • SunTrust Banks has a Buy rating.
  • Morgan Stanley has an Equal Weight rating with a $19 target.
  • MKM Partners has a Sell rating and a $16 price target.
  • Merrill Lynch has a Buy rating with a $22 price target.
  • KeyCorp has a Buy rating with a $26 price target.

Shares of Urban Outfitters were last seen down about 4% at $22.95, with a consensus analyst price target of $21.11 and a 52-week trading range of $16.19 to $40.80.