As the third quarter is winding down, Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: SIX) capitalized on what was the tail end of summer. One key analyst is reflecting this in its most recent report, in which it supposes that the company has an upside of roughly 25%.

To reflect a greater mix of season pass attendance, Oppenheimer adjusted its model slightly. The firm lowered its third-quarter admissions per cap estimate and slightly increased its third quarter in-park spend per cap estimate. Oppenheimer believes Six Flags remains on track to achieve its Project 500 target of $500 million of modified EBITDA in 2015. As a result, Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating with a $56 price target, implying upside of 25% from current prices.

At the same time, the brokerage firm adjusted its third-quarter and full-year revenue estimates to $557 million and $1.214 billion, from $568 million and $1.225 billion, respectively. Oppenheimer adjusted its third-quarter admission per cap estimate to $25.86 from $26.51, owing to higher season pass mix. However, the firm increased its third-quarter in-park spend per cap estimate to $17.92 from $17.83, as certain initiatives such as all-season dining more than offset the deflationary impact of greater season pass attendance.

Oppenheimer expects that Six Flags can grow its third-quarter and full-year revenue by 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively, on the back of increased attendance from season pass and membership holders. In fact, the company reported a 32% year-over-year increase in the Active Pass Base at the end of June. This growth is consistent with management’s strategy to upsell guests to multi-visit passes as these guests generate higher revenue and cash flow (on a full-year basis) and provide a hedge against inclement weather.

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In its report, Oppenheimer finished it off by saying:

We continue to believe Six Flags will meet its Project 500 target of $500 million of modified EBITDA in 2015. Our 2015E modified/adjusted EBITDA are reduced to $502 million/$458 million, from $513 million/$469 million. Our 2016E is unchanged. Maintain Outperform and $56 price target.

Shares of Six Flags were up 1.1% at $44.85 on Thursday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $54.50 and a 52-week trading range of $31.77 to $51.09.

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