Chipotle Sinks on Updated Guidance

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) saw its shares drop on Tuesday after this burrito chain disclosed a downbeat sales outlook for the year. Ultimately, this guidance was not up to expectations, and Chipotle saw one of its largest sell-offs in 2017.

The company stated in a filing late Monday, which followed its investor gathering, that it expected 2017 same-store sales growth in the “high single digits” percentage range, below what the FactSet consensus calls for (10.1%). Operating costs for the second quarter are also expected “to be at or slightly higher” than the first quarter.

In filing, Chipotle said:

For the second quarter of 2017, we continue to expect food costs to be approximately 34.2% of sales, and marketing and promotion costs to be up approximately 20 to 30 basis points versus the first quarter of 2017 to 3.6%-3.7% of sales.   As a result, we expect other operating costs as a  percentage of sales for the second quarter to be at or slightly higher than reported for the first quarter.

For the full year, we continue to expect comparable restaurant sales increases in the high single digits, 195-210 new restaurant openings, and an estimated effective tax rate of approximately 39.0%.

Consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters are $2.39 in earnings per share (EPS) and $1.19 billion in revenue for the fiscal second quarter. For the fiscal year, consensus estimates call for $8.43 in EPS and revenue of $4.63 billion.

Excluding Tuesday’s move, the stock is actually up just over 21% year to date, while over the past 52 weeks the stock is up only 15%.

Shares of Chipotle were last seen down 6% at $430.38 on Tuesday, with a consensus analyst price target of $450.74 and a 52-week range of $352.96 to $499.00.