Bing Predicts: NFL Week 7

October 18, 2017 by Steven M. Peters

The most head-scratching result came in the Sunday night game. Really, who would have predicted that the New York Giants would fly into Denver without six starters and pick up their first win of the season. Not many. Even Bing Predicts got that one wrong.

While there are upsets every week, Bing Predicts usually does a decent job of tabbing the winners. Week 6 was not as good, with Bing getting only five of the 14 picks correct. Hey, all the data in the world couldn’t predict that the Chiefs would fall to the Steelers or the Falcons would be upset by the Dolphins.

It’s not going to be much easier in Week 7.

Bing predicted only two teams in Week 7 to have a more than 70% chance of winning. Bing gave the Seahawks a 79% chance to win over the Giants, while the Tennessee Titans have a 78% edge on the Cleveland Browns.

Three trends have emerged in the first six weeks of the NFL:

  • Key players are getting knocked out for the season including Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and the latest is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a broken right collarbone.
  • Expect the unexpected.
  • The Cleveland Browns will lose. Bing is a perfect 6-for-6 predicting Browns’ losses and it’s predicting yet another loss for the team.

Bing’s NFL predictions use team and player statistics and web activity to build a statistical model that takes into account historical data and real-time information (like injuries, suspensions, and lineup changes). Finally, social sentiment adds a unique wisdom-of-the-crowd factor to the model. Learn more about Bing Predicts.

Click here to see all Bing weekly NFL predictions.
Click here to see the predictions for week 7 of the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
> Bing Predicts winner: Kansas City (67%)
> Kickoff time: 8:25 PM EDT (Thursday)
> Game spread: Kansas City -3
> Matchup history: Chiefs lead 62-52-2

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said it was a gut feeling to go for it on fourth down early in the fourth quarter at the Steelers’ 4-yard line. His gut was wrong and it was costly, leading to Kansas City’s first loss, 19-13. Still, Reid’s decision-making delivered five wins for Kansas City and is a big reason the Chiefs (5-1) are favored over the Raiders (2-4), who have lost four straight. Kansas City has beaten Oakland, its ancient and bitter rival, five consecutive times. In the loss to the Steelers, Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt’s three-game streak of 100 rushing yards or more was snapped. Quarterback Derek Carr returned after recovering from a broken bone in his back, but he threw two interceptions against just one touchdown pass. The sputtering Raiders offense is ranked 30th in the league, averaging 278.3 yards a game.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
> Bing Predicts winner: Buffalo (51%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Buffalo -3
> Matchup history: Buccaneers lead 7-3

The Bills (3-2) are rested after a bye week, ready and at home. They also have the stingiest defense in the league, giving up just 14.8 points per game. Those sound like good reasons for favoring them over the inconsistent Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3). The Bills’ Week 5 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals must have festered during their time off. Really, the Bengals? Now the Bucs should be worried because the Bills have something to prove.

The Bucs received good news as the X-rays on quarterback Jameis Winston’s right shoulder were negative, so he’s expected to play on Sunday. The Bucs looked awful in the first half of the loss to the Cardinals, when they were down 24-0 but fought back and lost 38-33. Just not a good day overall for Tampa Bay.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
> Bing Predicts winner: Carolina (63%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Carolina -3.5
> Matchup history: Bears lead 5-4-0

After six games we basically know nothing about the hot-and-cold Cam Newton and the Panthers (4-2). World beaters one week, struggling to find an offensive rhythm the next. After a superb win in Detroit in Week 5, Newton threw three interceptions and one touchdown in the loss to the Eagles. Will the real Cam please stand up?

Still, the Panthers are the favorites over the Bears (2-4), who beat the Ravens in OT on Sunday — despite giving up a 14-point lead, allowing two lengthy kick returns, and turning the ball over twice. Bears rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was just good enough (113 passing yards, one touchdown) in the win over the Ravens.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
> Bing Predicts winner: Tennessee (78%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Tennessee -7
> Matchup history: Browns lead 35-30-0

Despite having a short week to prepare after beating the Colts 36-22 Monday night, the Titans (3-3) are big favorites over the Browns. (Isn’t everyone?) Quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn’t his usual self. He tried to protect his strained hamstring and let his arm do all the work. With that strategy he found success, going 23 of 32 for a season-high 306 yards. That included a 53-yard game-winning touchdown pass to Taywan Taylor late in the game.

For Cleveland, perhaps Kevin Hogan is not the answer at quarterback. He threw three interceptions and just one touchdown pass in Cleveland’s 33-17 loss to Houston. In this topsy-turvy six weeks of the NFL season, one thing has remained constant — the Browns (0-6) still stink. It’s comforting to know some things remain the same, unless of course you live in Cleveland.

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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
> Bing Predicts winner: New Orleans (67%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: New Orleans -3.5
> Matchup history: Packers lead 16-8-0

The Saints (3-2) are feeling good after a big win over the Lions, when their defense and special teams scored three touchdowns. It’s the first time since 2013 that New Orleans has been over .500 — that’s a long time in NFL years. While the Saints have shown signs of life and are the favorite in this matchup, it’s unlikely they would be if Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had not broken his right collarbone Sunday. After all, the game is at Lambeau Field, and the Packers (4-2) always seem to find a way to win in Green Bay.

Backup quarterback Brett Hundley will have a full week to practice with the first team. He threw three interceptions on Sunday in a loss to Vikings. He’s got to clean that up or the Packers will be forced to look elsewhere for a veteran backup quarterback.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
> Bing Predicts winner: Jacksonville (64%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Jacksonville -3
> Matchup history: Colts lead 22-10-0

The big difference between these two teams is that the Jaguars have a healthy starting quarterback while the Colts (2-4) are still waiting for the return of Andrew Luck. The favored Jaguars (3-3) also feature rookie running back Leonard Fournette, who has rushed for 311 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles might not be the long-term answer, but he has thrown more touchdown passes (eight) than Interceptions (five).

Luck, coming off shoulder surgery in January, has said there is no timetable for his return. They need him sooner rather than later. Indianapolis has other issues. The Colts have surrendered 685 points, the most in the league, and are yielding 410 yards a game, more than any team except New England.

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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
> Bing Predicts winner: Arizona (53%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Los Angeles -3.5
> Matchup history: Cardinals lead 38-37-2

Rams running back Todd Gurley had his third 100-yard plus rushing game in the road win over the Jaguars. But while most teams love home cooking, the Rams (4-2) see better results when in someone else’s kitchen. They are 1-2 at home so far, while 3-0 on the road. Maybe that’s why the Cardinals are favored.

Arizona also has a shiny new toy in running back Adrian Peterson, who is happy again. Thanks to a trade, he’s found a home with the Cardinals (3-3), where the early results show he’s a good fit. Peterson had 26 carries for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his first appearance. He’s staying in Larry Fitzgerald’s guest house when not playing, so it’s a good setup all-around for the veteran. Peterson just needs a little love and several carries every game.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
> Bing Predicts winner: Miami (55%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Miami -3.5
> Matchup history: Jets lead 54-49-1

These Dolphins can give the Jets all they can handle. (Did I just write that sentence?) Miami quarterback Jay Cutler seems to be warming up after he fashioned a second-half comeback in the upset win over the Atlanta Falcons, who were a 14-point favorite. Miami was down 17-0 at the half when Cutler led the charge with two touchdown passes and 20 second-half points for the 20-17 win. Chew on this — it was the first time all season the Dolphins (3-2) had scored more than 20 points. So even though the Jets are 3-3, they are getting little respect.

The Jets, who are 1-2 on the road, just have to put Sunday’s controversial non-touchdown catch behind them. Yes, Austin Seferian-Jenkins crossed the goal line plane with the ball, but it was ruled a fumble because he didn’t have complete control of the ball. It could’ve been the difference in the Jets’ 24-17 loss to the Patriots. Time to get over it.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
> Bing Predicts winner: Minnesota (64%)
> Kickoff time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Minnesota -5
> Matchup history: Ravens lead 3-2-0

No matter who the Vikings (4-2) start at quarterback, they can usually find a way to win. That’s why they’re favored over the Ravens (3-3). The Vikings are likely to start Case Keenum after he helped forge the 23-10 win over the Green Bay Packers. Sam Bradford, who was the starting quarterback, may have bigger troubles with his knee than first suspected. And after 14 months since his knee injury, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has finally been given clearance to practice, which is good news. Still it’s Keenum’s offense for now.

We know Joe Flacco is the quarterback for the Ravens. That’s too bad. He threw two interceptions and had no touchdown passes in the 27-24 overtime loss to the Bears. The Ravens’ pass offense is ranked 31st in the league, averaging 159.7 yards a game. The Ravens’ two touchdowns on Sunday were courtesy of punt and kick returns. So far this season, Flacco has twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdown passes (four).

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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
> Bing Predicts winner: Dallas (65%)
> Kickoff time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Dallas -4.5
> Matchup history: Series tied 17-17-1

While a 2-3 record is nothing for the Cowboys to crow about, it’s still better than the 49ers’ 0-6 record — the 49ers are one of two winless teams in the NFL. The Cowboys are coming off a bye week, which gives them an advantage even on the road. They thought they’d be playing the first of six games without running back Ezekiel Elliott, but he got a reprieve on his six-game suspension and that is obviously good news for the Cowboys.

San Francisco has had no luck at all so far. The 49ers’ last five losses have been by 3 or 2 points. The most recent was a 26-24 loss to the Redskins. Quarterback Brian Hoyer was benched at the half in favor of C.J. Beathard, who will start against the Cowboys. Is it a new day for the 49ers? It might take more than just a change at quarterback, but it’s a start.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
> Bing Predicts winner: Seattle (79%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Seattle -8
> Matchup history: Giants lead 9-8-0

Well, it’s no fun picking on the Giants now that they have won a game. Good move by coach Ben McAdoo to yield the play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan. And in Eli Manning’s defense, injuries have played a big role in the lousy start. Still, the Giants (1-5), who were playing without six starters, were able to dominate the Broncos 23-10 when no one gave them a chance. New York defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul finished with three sacks, while he’d only had 1.5 sacks in the first five games.

However, the Seahawks (3-2) are the big favorites in this one coming off their bye week. Seattle has won its last three meetings with the Giants. Before the time off, the Seahawks had won two straight. Seattle’s defense is sixth best in the league, allowing just 17.4 points per game, while the Giants’ offense averages 17.5 points per game, 28th in the NFL.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
> Bing Predicts winner: Pittsburgh (63%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Pittsburgh -6
> Matchup history: Steelers lead 60-35-0

It should be a good defensive matchup between the second-best defensive team in the NFL (Cincinnati allowing 262.8 yards per game) and the third-best (Pittsburgh allowing 272.0). But the Steelers (4-2) get the edge here. Perhaps that’s because they are coming off a tremendous 19-13 win over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bengals (2-3) couldn’t lose on Sunday because they had a bye. Prior to that, they had won two straight. Quarterback Andy Dalton still struggles with seven touchdown passes and six interceptions, although he’s improved over the first two weeks of the season when he had no touchdown passes and four interceptions. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger questioned himself less than two weeks ago over whether he still had “it.” Ask the Chiefs, apparently he does.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
> Bing Predicts winner: Los Angeles (55%)
> Kickoff time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: Denver -1
> Matchup history: Broncos lead 65-50-1

Don’t look now, but the Chargers have won two straight after an 0-4 start. They topped Oakland 17-16 on Sunday and they’ve got the edge in this one. Quarterback Philip Rivers had a strong outing, completing 25 of 36 passes for 268 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. Hunter Henry caught five passes for 90 yards in the victory over the Raiders.

The Broncos (3-2) were upset by the Giants on Sunday night when they were a 13.5-point favorite. That’s a loss that could linger or it could fire them up. Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian has had a rough stretch with two touchdown passes and four interceptions in the last three games.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
> Bing Predicts winner: New England (58%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sunday)
> Game spread: New England -4
> Matchup history: Patriots lead 8-6-0

Tom Brady set an NFL record with his 187th regular season win on Sunday, topping the Jets 24-17. Looks like he could notch No. 188 as his Patriots (4-2) are the favorite over the Falcons (3-2). While New England’s defense is ranked last in the league — yielding 440.7 yards per game — Brady has got the offense moving after a bit of a slow start this season. Of course that’s hardly a surprise for the defending Super Bowl champs. Tight end Rob Gronkowski had 83 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Jets.

After the Falcons started the season 3-0, they have dropped two, including Sunday’s upset by the Dolphins. Atlanta was favored by 14 points in that game. In the two losses, quarterback Matt Ryan has passed for two touchdowns and thrown three interceptions — very un-Ryan-like numbers.

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
> Bing Predicts winner: Philadelphia (66%)
> Kickoff time: 8:30 PM EDT (Monday)
> Game spread: Philadelphia -6
> Matchup history: Redskins lead 86-74-5

The Eagles (5-1) own the NFL’s longest current winning streak of four games. They look to make it five as favorites over the Redskins (3-2). Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz came up huge in the 28-23 win over Carolina, with 222 passing yards and three touchdown passes against a strong Panthers defense. Wentz ranks fifth among all quarterbacks, with 1,584 passing yards and is tied with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers for second in the NFL with 13 touchdown passes.

For the Redskins, running back Chris Thompson had his second receiving game of 100 of more yards in the 26-24 win over the 49ers. Washington has won three of its last four games, and quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown eight touchdown passes and just one interception over that span. The Redskins had beaten the Eagles five straight times until Philadelphia defeated Washington in early September.

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