Posts for Ticker ‘ATI’

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ATI, APOL, AUO, ABX, BWLD, EXPD, HAL, JCOM, NOK, MTN)

These are the ten top analyst calls we have seen early this Tuesday morning with about two hours until the open:

Allegheny Tech (ATI) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Apollo Group (APOL) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
AU Optronics (AUO) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Barrick Gold (ABX) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Expeditors International (EXPD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Halliburton (HAL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
j2 Global (JCOM) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Nokia (NOK) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Vail Resorts (MTN) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
April 21, 2009

Posted on: April 21, 2009 – 6:51 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Stocks Which Doubled Market Performance (ATI, CMCSA, COH, FMCN, HPC, IPG, MICC, NEM, SNI, TIE, VMED)

Money_stack_picAs you will see today’s gains of 10% and more on both the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index, we wanted to explore which stocks greatly outperformed the markets today.  We’d note that it is rather odd to see that technology stocks measured by the NASDAQ were actually lagging the overall market today.

DJIA              9,065.12 (+889.35; +10.88%)
S&P500        940.51 (+91.59; +10.79%)
NASDAQ       1,649.47 (+143.57; +9.53%)

Below is a list of the stocks which outperformed by roughly double over the major index gains of the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100.  These stocks posted gains of 20% or more on the day, and we’d note that this list would actually be much larger if we included the financial stocks and REIT Stocks which we backed out for obvious reasons:

Read More »

Posted on: October 28, 2008 – 4:22 pm in HI/LOW, Index, , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (ATI, BIDU, DISCA, FHN, JNS, NOV, PTEC, RSH, SIGM, VRGY)

Down_arrow_red_2These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades we are seeing this Friday-crash morning:

  • Allegheny Tech (ATI) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Baidu.com (BIDU) Target Cut to $260 from $350 at Goldman Sachs.
  • Discovery Communications (DISCA) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • First Horizon National (FHN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Janus Capital (JNS) Cut to Underperform at FBR.
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Phoenix Tech (PTEC) Cut to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham.
  • Radio Shack (RSH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Sigma Designs (SIGM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Verigy (VRGY) Cut to Underperform at Oppenheimer.

Jon C. Ogg
October 24, 2008

Posted on: October 24, 2008 – 7:03 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club 7/25/2008 (SSP)(MNI)(CVG)(ATI)(CROX)(AFFX)

Sad_clownScripps (SSP) Newspaper stock takes big hit on earnings. Falls to $7.17 from 52-week high of $147.78.

McClatchy Newspapers (MNI) Another newspaper company with problems. Sells down to $4.30 from 52-week high of $26.43.

Convergys (CVG) Still dropping after downgrade, to $11.77 against 52-week high of $20.

Read More »

Posted on: July 25, 2008 – 3:49 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ADBE, ATI, CAT, HOTT, MOT, NWAC, UAUA, URI, VRSN, VMED)

These are ten of the analyst calls we are focusing on this Thursday morning:

  • Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) cut to Neutral at Cowen & Co.
  • Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) cut to Sell at UBS.
  • Hot Topic (NASDAQ: HOTT) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR.
  • Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Cut to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.
  • Northwest Airlines (NASDAQ: NWAC) Raised to Overweight from Equalweight at Lehman.
  • UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA) raised to Overweight at Lehman Brothers
  • United Rentals (NYSE: URI) cut to Neutral at UBS.
  • VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN) Cut to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Virgin Media (NASDAQ: VMED) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Jon C. Ogg
June 5, 2008

Posted on: June 5, 2008 – 6:47 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ANF, ATI, BCS, DTV, LVLT, MFB, RFMD, QLTI, TTWO, TRLG)

These are ten of the top calls we are seeing that could impact shares early this Thursday morning:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) started as Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
  • Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) Cut to Neutral From Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Barclays (NYSE: BCS) cut to Neutral at Collins Stewart.
  • DIRECTV (NYSE: DTV) downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein.
  • Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) raised to Neutral from Sell at Merriman Curhan Ford.
  • Maidenform Brands (NYSE: MFB) Cut to Sell from Neutral at UBS.
  • RF Micro Device (NASDAQ: RFMD) raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • QLTI Inc. (NASDAQ: QLTI) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: TRLG) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.

Jon C. Ogg
April 24, 2008

Posted on: April 24, 2008 – 6:15 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (ATI, AIV, DELL, GPS, JTX, KSU, NDAQ, PRU, SIRI, AUY)

These are not the only analyst calls impacting stocks, but these are the top analyst calls that 247WallSt.com is focusing on this Friday in pre-market trading:

  • Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) cut to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen & Co.
  • Apartment Investment (NYSE: AIV) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Gap Inc (NYSE: GPS) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • NASDAQ OMX (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Started as Neutral at UBS.
  • Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) Raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman.
  • Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) raised to Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
April 4, 2008

Posted on: April 4, 2008 – 6:38 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs & Massive Steel Prices (X, NUE, ATI, STLD, SCHN, GNA, WOR, AKS, ROCK, RS, CMC)

Goldman Sachs is out with a call raising its steel company earnings targets after above expectation steel prices and tighter supplies that represent a physical steel shortage. It sees some US steel prices rising from $700 recent targets up to a new $850 target per short ton.  It also sees 2009 prices above 2008 prices and sees wider spreads with raw steel compared to scrap costs.

There was one lowered target on Olympic Steel, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZEUS).  Goldman Sachs is raising ZEUS earnings estimates for this year and next, but it is downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral because its shares are up more than 50% since being added as Buy in November.  It is raising the rating on U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) from neutral to Buy and it has raised targets as well, and it raised 2008 EPS from $11.10 to $14.80 and 2008 from $12.75 to $16.75.

Other estimates are raised in the sector:  Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) was maintained as Buy and saw a slight boost to earnings targets.  Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA), Gibralter Ind. (NASDAQ: ROCK), Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD), AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), and Commercial Metals (NYSE: CMC) are all neutral rated but saw estimates raised considerably considering the neutral ratings.

The firm is also positive on Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE), which it maintains a Buy rating on and raised estimates sharply on for this year and next.

Goldman Sachs has sell ratings on Worthington (NYSE: WOR) and Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN), although the firm even raised earnings estimates on those two names.

Jon C. Ogg
March 20, 2008

Posted on: March 20, 2008 – 7:29 am in Analyst Calls, Metals, , , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs on Steel & Metals in 2008 (NUE, ZEUS, RS, ATI, X, SCHN, AKS)

Goldman Sachs is out with a call covering the steel stocks.  We’ll be keeping this one shortened to keep it in a summary format.  Goldman is noting that US STEEL PRICES ARE SET TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2008.  It notes a short squeeze that should more than offset recessionary demand trends.  It also notes a trend in mini-mills where they will see higher scrap price costs in the near-term but will have wider margins later in 2008 and 2009.  Goldman also believes the integrated steel companies will see margin increases on an immediate basis.

Below are the stock calls seen in the steel and related sector:

  • Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) is its Top Pick in the sector;
  • and that is followed by Olympic Steel (NASDAQ: ZUES) and Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) as Buy ratings;
  • it also has Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) as Neutral ratings;
  • Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ: SCHN) was downgraded to the loathed SELL rating from an already lackluster Neutral rating.  It sees a 15% downside to its new price target of $47.00 as the premium to peers is unwarranted.
  • AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) is being removed from The Americas SellList and therefore being raised to a Neutral rating.  Its 2008estimates are being hiked to $4.25 from $3.30 and the 2009 estimatesare being raised to $3.85 from $3.35. 

Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2008

Posted on: January 16, 2008 – 9:17 am in Analyst Calls, Metals, , , , , , ,

Backward & Forward, Cramer In 2007 To 2008

2007 was one volatile year and for now it appears that will be the norm for at least the start of 2008.  Everyone’s favorite market pundit or least liked pundit is obviously Jim Cramer.  If you love Cramer or can’t stand him it really doesn’t matter.  He signed a new multi-year deal with CNBC recently.  Here are some of his major calls this year that will still be referred to in 2008:

Here were Cramer’s TOP 9 STOCKS FOR 2007, with a call broken down for each one.  Borat would say HI FIVE on some and NOT SO NICE on others, as would be expected.  Cramer’s 14,582 year-end DJIA target…..Friday’s close was 13,365.87……although we did hit 14,279.96 on OCT11, 2007.  Cramer also gave a batch of price targets on most of theDJIA components:

Cramer’s Stock Picks FOR 5-YEARS OUT:

SOME LISTS: His list of recession proof stocks compared to ours.  We are updating our
Defensive Stocks For The First Half Of 2008" currently.  Cramer gave a huge list of companies he expects to benefit from the alternative energy traders (SGR, FWLT, BWA, OMG, FSLR, FTEK, WFR, TTEK, ZOLT, BP, SPWR, CY, CPST, ITRI)… Jim Cramer pondered which US companies China would want to acquire, about 3 months before sovereign funds started buying into US companies.  Cramer’s mortgage winners and losers…… Here were his MAJOR BULL MARKET STOCK PICKS(MHS, CVS, AGN, CELG, GENZ, CEPH, RIG, HAL, EMR, CAT, CMI, UTX, KO,PEP, CL, GS, SKS, VFC, UNP, CSX, BA), some of which are DJIAcomponents.  Cramer produced a "MUST OWN" list of stocks, many of whichare up significantly and some are down (WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE, QCOM)

Cramer spent lots of time on International stocks that most US investors might not cover on their own.  He made a big call on Mercadolibre (MELI) (also BIDU, GOOG) with some emphasis on buying immediately, right before it made a huge run up.  Cramer’s Hidden Video Game Investment Perfect World (PWRD, ATVI, ERTS, VIA) was one he said could run more than 50% for 2008.  Cramer made 5 TOP CHINESE PICKS (CEO, CHL, SSW, FMCN, BIDU, GMR).  We’ll see in 2008 if any of his Canadian OIL TRUSTS get acquired in 2008 (BTE, CNE, PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, GDI).  Cramer also went over his top picks from Europe for American investors (TOT, SI, ABB, PHG, BF)

ON TECHNOLOGY:  Cramer’s NEW HORSEMEN OF TECH…. will the list change in 2008???  Did Cramer Say $1,000.00 on Google, Or Is It $600.00? That was in May 2007.  Cramer Gave Monster Price targets to Baidu.com (BIDU, GOOG).. will these targets change in 2008? Cramer was very positive on all the GPS stocks,although we’d expect that Cramer will change his tune in 2008 now thatthe holiday madness is behind us (GRMN, UA, CROX, NVT, TRMB, SIRF).

Would it be fair not to include the Barron’s attack on Cramer from summer for those of you that criticize his every word?

ON WARREN BUFFETT…. Cramer noted that BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT in Canada may be the next Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK/A) NYSE: BAM). Cramer reviewed 10 Warren Buffett stocks for analysis and then reviewed 10 More Warren Buffett stocks:

Will his buyout of ALCOA (AA) prediction come true in 2008??? Cramer gave a list of stocks that had bought back so much stock that they might be taking themselves private.

Join our free email distribution list for other Cramer calls or for updates we send out regarding IPO’s, spin-offs, restructuring, reorganization, activist investors and more.

Happy New Years from the 247WallSt.com team!

Jon C. Ogg
December 31, 2007

Posted on: December 31, 2007 – 8:01 am in Cramer, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Week In Stock Buybacks (DELL, CROX, XOM, UNH, HNT, IMMR, ACXM, HAR, ATI, AYI, EPIC)

This might not be that unusual for a volatile week during earnings season, but this was a fairly active week for share buyback news announcements.  Some are new and some are continuations or expansions.  There is no way to cover all the share buybacks during earnings season, and we screened out the micro-cap stocks.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) is perhaps the biggest buyback coming down the pipe after this month.  It will now be clear to resume its major stock buyback now that it has become compliant again with having its restatement complete and SEC filings current. Dell even said it expects to resume its share repurchase program shortly after it reports its results for the third quarter (so after 11/29).  Goldman Sachs added Dell to its Conviction Buy List at the expense of H-P (NYSE:HPQ).

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) missed earnings expectations but noted that during the quarter, the company repurchased roughly 90 million shares of its own stock for about $7.8 billion.

CROCS Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) authorized a 1 million share buyback planafter Thursday’s major stock drop.  The board must have said, "Evenwith ugly shoes, these buyback things that companies have announcedseem to be well received by traders."  After traders sent CROX to the Everglades, the company might as well just save its cash.

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI) Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of $500 million, and it increased ATI’s quarterly dividend by nearly 40% to $0.18 per share.  This is after a dismal earnings number.

Immersion Corp. (NASDAQ:IMMR) board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $50 million of the company’s common stock (nearly 3 million shares at current prices, with 30.1 million shares outstanding as of 10/31).  If the company lives up to it, that is an impressive buyback plan.  Unfortunately its earnings are quite spotty and expected to be that way ahead.

Epicor Software Corp. (NASDAQ:EPIC) Board of Directors has authorized up to $50 million for a buyback plan of its Common Stock that can be repurchased from time to time.

Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI) completed the spin-off of Zep Inc. (NYSE: ZEP) to the stockholders of Acuity Brands. Effective October 31, 2007, the Board of Directors of Acuity Brands authorized the repurchase of an additional 2,000,000 shares, or almost 5%, of its common stock. Also, Acuity has authorization to buy back a remaining 811,400 shares of outstanding common stock under the repurchase program announced in August of this year.  Baird just upgraded the company.

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) at the Board of Directors’ regular quarterly meeting, held on October 30, 2007 renewed and increased its Stock Repurchase Program up to 210 million shares of the company’s common stock. This includes approximately 50 million shares remaining under the previous buyback plan; at September 30, 2007 the Company had approximately 1.3 billion common shares of stock outstanding.

Health Net, Inc. (NYSE:HNT) board of directors approved a $250 million increase to the company’s share repurchase program. The company launched its share repurchase program in May 2002 with an initial authorization of $250 million.  On October 16, 2006, Health Net announced that its board of directors increased the size of the stock repurchase program to $450 million and now Health Net has approximately $346 million in remaining repurchase authority.

PACCAR’s (NASDAQ:PCAR) Board of Directors approved the repurchase of $300 million of its outstanding common stock. PACCAR has invested $978 million to repurchase 27.4 million shares and paid $1.73 billion in dividends during the last three years.

Harman International (NYSE:HAR) announced that it has repurchased4,775,549 shares of its common stock under separate accelerated sharerepurchase programs for a total purchase price of approximately $400million.  After a failed merger, what choices are there?

Acxiom Corp. (NASDAQ:ACXM) board of directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $75 million of the company’s common stock over the next 12 months.  After a failed merger, what choices are there?

Jon C. Ogg
November 2, 2007

Posted on: November 2, 2007 – 11:16 am in Stock Buybacks, The Week, , , , , , , , , , ,

Allegheny Warning Melts Metal (ATI, X, TIE)

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE:ATI) said today that it expects full-year 2007 earnings per share to be in the range of $7.00 to $7.25 per diluted share in anticipation of lower second half 2007 earnings than previously expected. ATI expects third quarter 2007 earnings to be in the range of $1.85 to $1.88 per diluted share and further impacts in the fourth quarter.  As far as how this compares to estimates: Annual estimates are $7.95; Q3 is $1.96; and Q4 is $2.05.

Here are the two biggies, neither of which are overly comforting for serious metals bulls: Softness in demand for standard stainless sheet is continuing because of higher inventories at certain mills and depots and volatile raw material costs. In addition, a significant reduction in raw material surcharges and indexes is expected from the rapid decline in the cost of nickel, nickel-bearing scrap, and titanium scrap.

Allegheny says it sees continuing growth in demand for our high-value products from the global aerospace and defense, chemical process industry, oil and gas, and electrical energy markets. Shipments under long-term agreements in these markets should continue to grow over the next several years. There is at least one refreshing part: "We do not anticipate a significant impact from the recently announced delay in the Boeing 787 Dreamliner schedule."  Allegheny also says the softness in demand for standard stainless sheet appears to be bottoming out and inventory levels at distributors are low by historic measures. Demand for these products should begin to improve in early 2008 once the high inventories at stainless mills and depots are reduced.

Shares of Allegheny closed down 4% at $106.65 in regular trading today, but shares are down another 9% at $97.00 in after hours trading.  As ATI is roughly an $11 Billion market cap, this is spelling trouble elsewhere: United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:X) fell 1.3% today but shares are down 3% at $103.50 in after-hours; Titanium Metals Corp. (NYSE:TIE) fell 1.3% today but are down another 3.3% at $31.98 in after-hours.

Jon C. Ogg
October 11, 2007

Posted on: October 11, 2007 – 4:56 pm in Earnings Warning, Metals, , ,

Boeing & The Aerospace Group: Set For Life (BA, GE, BEAV, ATI)

If you were born with a solid trust fund or if you won the lottery, you are probably set for the rest of your life.  If not, you will at least hope your name is Boeing (BA-NYSE) or that you do business with it.  The company has given some long-term figures for a 20-year outlook to 2026 and it is staggering.  Boeing has forecast that the worldwide demand over the next 20-years will be some 28,600 new airplanes with a total market value estimated at $2.8 Trillion.  The forecast last year to 2025 was for 27,210 new planes over the similar timeframe, with Russia and a few more markets being included.

There are of course some caveats, and you know pushouts can come at any time.  Asia Pacific is the largest increase and the rest is coming from increased passenger travel (traffic estimated up 5% annually) and increased cargo (traffic estimated up 6.1% annually).  Combined with the retained fleet, these new deliveries will result in a world commercial airplanes fleet of more than 36,400 airplanes by 2026.

On a delivery-dollar basis, the largest market is projected to be the Asia-Pacific region, with 36 percent of the $2.8 trillion total. North America will make up 26 percent of the delivery dollars, and Europe, Russia, and the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) will make up a total of 25 percent. Deliveries to airlines in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa will represent the remaining 13 percent of the delivery dollars between 2007 and 2026.  Here is the breakdown of the estimates, and keep in mind that this is the commercial non-private market only:

3,700 regional jets, below 90 seats;
17,650 single-aisle airplanes, 90-240 seats, dual-class;
6,290 twin-aisle airplanes, 200-400 seats, tri-class;
960 airplanes 747-size or larger, more than 400 seats, tri-class.

Also, the push is not solely on these super-jumbo jets and the focus is going to be on more fuel efficient planes.  The 90 to 400-seat categories will account for almost all of the growth in air travel over the next 20 years. Airlines will continue to accommodate that growth by adding frequencies and nonstop flights — not by flying larger and larger aircraft.  Boeing is focused on offering new airplanes that burn less fuel and spend less time in maintenance.

Some of the go-to aerospace supply companies like Allegheny Technologies (ATI-NYSE) that supply much of the aerospace metals and BEA Aerospace (BEAV-NASDAQ) that make airline interiors and seating have to think this is music to their ears.  General Electric (GE-NYSE) is probably already licking their chops over the engine and service pacts that this will translate into.

Jon C. Ogg
June 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 13, 2007 – 10:02 am in Aerospace, Airlines, , , ,

Market Trades For Super-Bulls, Chicken-Bulls, and Outright Bears

Stock Tickers: AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, BA, UTX, ATI, RTP, RIO, FLR, SGR, PEP, KO, BUD, CAG, HNZ, CPB, HRL, K, GIS, KFT, MCD, MRK, PFE, ALO, PYX, HME, WTR, SNH, SRZ, PG, CL, MO, RAI, CLX, NVO, BRK/A, FLO, DLM, PSQ, DOG, SSO, SH, BIL, IEI, TLT, TLH

There is more than enough bantering back and forth out there about the week’s sell-off in reaction to long-term interest rates and the Bill Gross predictions for potentially higher rates longer-term.  So, if you are a super-bull then you’d want to use the leadership stocks to pile surplus cash into thinking the world didn’t really change.  If you are a chicken-bull (want to buy but not overly aggressive and still cautious) then you want to buy defensive stocks.  If you’re a bear, well at least you get the 5% interest.  We wanted to provide at least a partial list of the bull and bear go-to picks ahead of the weekend when many will be doing extra amounts of reading.

Aggressive Bullish Picks

IF this was just an unwarranted sell-off that came because of a rate spook and if Mr. Gross is wrong, then you go hard and fast into what has been working before.  Aerospace, Infrastructure, Metals & Mining, very selective Tech.  So out of selective tech the two most obvious names are Apple (AAPL) and either Google (GOOG) or Research-in-Motion (RIMM).  In Aerospace the go-to names are Boeing (BA) and United Tech (UTX).  In metals its Allegheny Tech (ATI), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce ‘CVRD’ (RIO).  In infrastructure the go-to names are Fluor (FLR), Shaw Group (SGR).  This week Jim Cramer gave his New Four Horsemen of Technology and booted the old ones.

Defensive Stock Plays For Chicken-Bull

Because this sell-off is for a different reason, we have eliminated the power companies because of the tie being so geared toward higher rates.  We’ve also pulled out the debt collection companies because they ran so much after the last sub-prime scare.  Here was the first line of 20 defensive stocks back in February from the mini-Asian meltdown and here was the list of second-line defensive names.   This still leaves plenty of options, and we added in a few more.

First Line Defensive Stocks: Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), ConAgra (CAG), Heinz (HNZ), Campbell Soup (CPB), Hormel (HRL), Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), Kraft (KFT), McDonalds (MCD), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), P & G (PG), Colgate-Polmolive (CL), Altria (MO), Reynolds American (RAI), and Clorox (CLX).

Second-Line Defensive Stocks:  Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/a), Flowers Foods (FLO), Del Monte Foods (DLM), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Alpharma (ALO), Playtex (PYX), Home Properties (HME), Aqua America (WTR), and Senior Housing (SNH), Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ).

The Bearish Trades

If you are still bearish or are completely bearish, then you’ve got Treasuries and all of the inverse ETF funds.  Some of the negative market ETF trades that move invesrely are the SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ), SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG), ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO), SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH), and more.  For short-term rate ETF’s you have the fairly new STREETTRACKS SERIES TRUST Lehman 1-3 MO T-BILL (BIL).  The more liquid interest rate ETF’s that actually trade are the iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT), iShares Lehman 10-20 Year Treas Bond (TLH), iShares Lehman 3-7 Year T-Note (IEI), and more.

As a reminder, defensive stocks still tend to get hit when the market gets so bad that they throw out the baby with the bath water, but they usually start to fall less and less and are usually the first stocks that traders commit money to at the turns.  Defensive doesn’t mean immune.  Also, all of these are merely part of a partial list and the list could have easily been 3-times the size.   

Jon C. Ogg
June 8, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 8, 2007 – 2:14 pm in ETF, Economy, HI/LOW, Shareholder Issues, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Cramer Outlines Long-Term Growth in Aerospace

On today’s Wall Street Confidential video on TheStreet.com, Jim Cramer says that aerospace stocks are great buying opportunities on down market days like today and yesterday.  Aerospace is tied into a long-term cycle, not really part of the stock market.  Honeywell (HON) is even better than Boeing (BA). BEA Areospace (BEAV) is great on the interiors for planes.  Other great aerospace plays he gave were Brush Engineered Materials (BW), Allegheny Tech (ATI), Precision Cast Parts (PCP), and AAR Corp. (AIR).  He also gave some defense names, but the main point was on the long-term growth trends. 

For some conjecture, let’s hope that idf things ever slow down too much that waves of order cancellations don’t come into play like they have in past down-cycles.  If that happens, Cramer will probably remember that these aren’t permanent growth engines.  To prove a point, BEAV traded well under $5.00 at the lows during the last down-cycle in the sector.

Jon C. Ogg
June 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 6, 2007 – 1:37 pm in Aerospace, Cramer, , , , , , ,

Cramer’s ‘Must Own’ List

Stock Tickers: WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE, QCOM

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC Jim Cramer addressed the opportunity created by the big down day.  He thinks some stocks are so loved that hedge funds and mutual funds just keep buying.  These funds can’t buy what they want all at once any longer, so they just keep buying and then the smaller funds jump on board.  The other change is that the companies are shrinking because of buybacks.  On days like today they sold off and that’s an opportunity for you to buy.  The floats on these are small enough that they almost trade like small cap stocks.  He has a dozen of these stocks:

Whirlpool (WHR), Black & Decker (BDK), Allegheny Tech (ATI), General Cable (BGC), Honeywell (HON), American Standard (ASD), Johnson Controls (JCI), McDermott (MDR), Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Caterpillar (CAT) and Terex (TEX), and Deere (DE).

This follows up on yesterday’s feature by Cramer where he sort of touted this as a scam on Wall Street in Qualcomm (QCOM).

Jon C. Ogg
May 10, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 10, 2007 – 5:26 pm in Cramer, , , , , , , , , , , , ,