Posts for Ticker ‘JRN’

Rating the Top 25 Newspaper Websites 2009

newspaperThe struggle for large urban newspapers to stay in business has largely been an effort on the part of their managements to increase revenue on the Internet faster than it is lost in their print editions. It has become clear that the race is becoming one that newspapers are unlikely to win. Internet revenue for some online editions is actually dropping. Print advertising is going down as fast as it did in 2008. Several large newspapers including The Rocky Mountain News have folded in the last year. The owners of other papers, particularly The Boston Globe and The San Francisco Chronicle, have threatened to fold these properties unless workers are willing to accept significant cuts in people or compensation.

A few newspaper websites have extremely large numbers of visitors. Online research service Compete.com reported that NYTimes.com had nearly 15 million unique visitors in May. The New York Times Company (NYT) reported that its online revenue fell 8% to $42.2 million in the first quarter, despite the size of the flagship paper’s website and other online properties such as Boston.com, the website affiliated with The Boston Globe. Online revenue was only 12.8% of the company’s sales, hardly adequate to have a significant impact on a firm  in severe financial trouble. The Washington Post Company’s newspaper revenue associated with online publishing fell 8% to $23 million in the first quarter of 2009. Washingtonpost.com had 8.7 million unique visitors in May, which makes it a large website, but clearly not big enough. Newspaper publishing revenue at the Post was $160.9 million in Q1, down 22% from the same period a year ago. The company losing revenue that fast cannot afford to have its online revenue shrink and account for only 14% of total sales. Read More »

Posted on: June 15, 2009 – 8:36 pm in Editor's Picks, Entertainment, Internet, Media, Old Media, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AYR, ARST, GLS, HCBK, JRN, MAKO, PFCB, TLM, WAT, WW)

These are the top analyst upgrades and downgrades that 247WallSt.com is focusing on in pre-market trading this Wednesday morning:

  • Aircastle (NYSE: AYR) Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • ArcSight (NASDAQ: ARST) started as Outperform at Wachovia; started as Equal Weight at Lehman Brothers.
  • Genesis Lease (NYSE: GLS) Downgraded to Neutral from overweight at JP Morgan.
  • Hudson City Banc (NASDAQ: HCBK) Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR.
  • Journal Commun (NYSE: JRN) started as Outperform at Bear Stearns.
  • MAKO Surgical (NASDAQ: MAKO) Started as Market Perform at Wachovia; Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • P.F. Chang’s (NASDAQ: PFCB) Downgraded to Underperform From Market Perform at FBR.
  • Talisman Energy (NYSE:TLM) raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • Waters (NYSE: WAT) Raised To Overweight From Neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Watson Wyatt (NYSE: WW) raised to Buy from Hold at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
March 26, 20008

Posted on: March 26, 2008 – 6:05 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Data Differentiates Newspaper Vs. Online News Reader Characteristics (SCOR, JRC, MNI, NYT, JRN, GCI)

If you have read any of our commentary or probably most other commentary online, you know that newspapers are not exactly the next growth engine in the economy.  In fact, they are probably losing the same percentage of their client base at the same rate as Southern California loses smokers.  Tonight we saw a report out of comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) that outlines some of the differences between online news readers and newspaper readers.  You can read that full report from comScore here.

We actually run a newsletter called the "Old Media/New Media Newsletter" here that our own Doug McIntyre produces each week.  We make the case for or against certain media properties such as newspapers, radio, cable, television, and the internet.  Believe it or not, we actually just covered some newspapers that we identified as survivors.  Sure some we covered as likely funeral candidates as well.  This went out Sunday night to our readers and we’ve just taken it off embargo if you would like to read a copy. 

Companies mentioned in the report are Journal Register (NYSE: JRC), McClatchy (NYSE: MNI), Journal News (NYSE: JRN), Gannett (NYSE: GCI), The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO), and the New York Times (NYSE: NYT).  Not all of those are buys, but some will actually survive the secular trend working against the sector.  Take a Test ride.

Jon C. Ogg
March 13, 2008

Posted on: March 13, 2008 – 5:20 pm in Media, , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club: Merrill Lynch (MER)

The list is very long today, so this will have to be confined to the best of the worst.

Radian Group (RDN) Company provides services to mortgage lenders. Not a good business these days. Down to $13.84 from $67.35.

TOUSA (TOA) Home builder. Unsecured creditors have gotten themselves lawyers. Down to $.63 from 52-week high of $11.37.

Journal Communications (JRN) Newspaper company. Down to $8.54 from $14.

Merrill Lynch (MER) Bullish on America? Not today. Big brokerage hits $65.86 down from 52-week high of $98.68.

Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (ANPI) Cuts 2007 revenue outlook. Drops to $4.86 from 52-week high of $9.81.

Movie Gallery (MOVI) In Chapter 11. Drops to $.18 from 52-week high of $5.29.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 19, 2007 – 3:25 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , ,

Share Buyback Announcements Still Coming (HLF, GPS, WABC, JRN)

Today we continued to see companies announcing new or adding to existing share buyback plans.  These were the main announcements, although it may be worth noting that this does not include companies that have repurchased shares in the open market.  Below is a list of the buyback plans and some add-on notes with explanations or exceptions:

Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) said it was increasing its share buyback plan by $150 million to $450 million.  Of course it has requested an increase of $150 million in the revolving credit commitments pursuant to its existing Credit Agreement dated July 21, 2006. Including this increase, the company would have aggregate revolving credit commitments of $250 million. The company is pursuing this borrowing facility increase on a best efforts basis and expects it to be concluded by September 15, 2007.  Since authorization of the share repurchase program on April 17, 2007, the company has repurchased 5.2 million shares for an aggregate of $204 million, representing approximately 7 percent of the fully diluted share base as of that date.

Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) has added $1.5 Billion to its share buyback plan after earnings today, although an accelerated buyback looks like it will be to the founders.  The company expects that about $250 million (17%) of the $1.5 billion share repurchase program will be purchased from these Fisher family members.

Westamerica Bancorporation (NASDAQ: WABC), parent company of Westamerica Bank, announced that its Board of Directors approved a plan to repurchase, as conditions warrant, up to two million shares of the Company’s common stock on the open market or in privately negotiated transactions from time to time prior to September 1, 2008.  The repurchase plan represents approximately 6.8% of the Company’s common stock outstanding as of July 25, 2007, and the plan replaces the existing two million-share stock repurchase program, under which 576,000 remained available to purchase as of June 30, 2007.

This morning Journal Communications, Inc. (NYSE:JRN) announced that it has repurchased 3,200,000 shares of class B common stock from the Company’s founding family shareholder, Matex Inc., at $10.00 per share, for a total of $32.0 million.

Jon C. Ogg
August 23, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: August 23, 2007 – 4:13 pm in Stock Buybacks, , , ,

Newspaper Carnage Continues, But…. (NWS, DJ, TRB, MNI, GHS, JRN, NYT, GCI, SSP, BLC, LEE )

There has been a solid recovery in newspaper and media plays in recent weeks, for some obvious merger reasons.  But the continuously deteriorating fundamentals in the sector lend a credence that the sector is just getting a reprieve that is masking the obvious trend.

Despite the mini-rally seen of late in newspaper stocks, Goldman Sachs remains unchanged and suggests selling into strength in the newspaper sector.  The purchase of Tribune (TRB) at 10-times EBITDA by Sam Zell and the major premium buyout offer from News Corp. (NWS) to Dow Jones (DJ) are fueling the speculative fire for more deals in the sector. Goldman thinks the ad revenues in Q2 will be down in the 5% range for newspapers, which is the second worse performance since the recession impacted Q1 2002.

What is interesting is that Goldman notes that there ‘undoubtedly will be further consolidation’ in the sector, but expresses a ‘remain underweight’ stance because of downward revenue trends, operating margin pressure, and downward earnings revision bias.  It also notes that valuations are not enticing for a declining fundamental basis.

So how far off of lows are these companies? 

Company (Ticker)        Price Today    52-Week Range
Gannett (GCI)                   $58.75         $51.65-$63.50
McClatchy (MNI)               $27.90         $27.42-$45.29
EW Scripps (SSP)            $46.00        $40.86-$53.39
New York Times (NYT)    $25.85        $21.54-$26.90
Belo Corp. (BLC)              $22.30         $14.93-$22.94
Lee Entrprs. (LEE)            $24.92        $22.98-$25.13
Journal Comms. (JRN)    $13.80        $10.05-$14.00

If you read media publications in the sector, the trend has been that major metro publications are the ones that have been experiencing the rapid drop-off.  The rural and small city papers is where the mergers have been and where the strength has been.  It isn’t so much that these areas are just full of non-webby bumpkins because that isn’t the case.  It’s just that the farther and farther you get away from major population centers the live and daily information becomes decentralized and it easier to keep it focused in a newpaper and ‘weeklies’ type of local publication.  That lends credibility to GateHouse Media Inc. (GHS-NYSE), still a fairly recent IPO.

With some of the trends continuing and an economy that is slowing, it is hard to fall back in love with the sector.  But there has been so much damage and the ‘undoubted consolidation’ just makes it harder and harder to consider putting new funds to work in the companies that have not recovered.  Sure, there will be more carnage in the sector and there will probably be some extra erosion in the stocks of the ones that have less value. 

A year from now it is likely we’ll still be discussing the carnage in newpaper and print media trends.  But we might be discussing the trends of companies that have either merged or been taken private, or at least fewer public companies.  With an election in 2008, its still a toss-up if newspapers will stabilize or if the new-media will steal away so much that even a larger market may not help.  If you have read our work frequently you will probably recallreferences to "Less Bad Is Good," and this may be a trend to watch for (or maybe just hope for) inthe sector.  Perhaps digital paper will take newspapers to a new realm.

The verdict is still out, for now.

Jon C. Ogg
June 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 6, 2007 – 11:09 am in Media, , , , , , , , , , ,