Monday is looking like a SWINE FLU speculative flu stock stock bonanza, and we want to caution about some of the lessons of scares in the past of SARS, bird flu, Mad Cow, and even hoof & mouth as similar references. The two approved drug treatments, not vaccines, which are being released are Tamiflu made by Roche (OTC: RHHBY) and Relenza made by GlaxoSmithkline (NYSE: GSK). Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) gets royalties from Roche for Tamiflu, and its shares are indicated north of $48.00 after a $45.80 close on Friday. There are also waves of tier-two and tier-three stocks which could move on this news, but be advised that we have seen these pops in the past from SARS and Bird Flu which were followed ultimately by lower share prices and many of the speculative players disappeared.
Of the tier-two stocks, you have BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) and Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX). Of the tier-three stocks you have Generex Biotechnology Corp. (NASDAQ: GNBT), Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL), AVI Biopharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVII), and Crucell NV (NASDAQ: CRXL). More descriptive data has been provided for each move. On another scale, Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD), the iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Market Index (NYSE: EWW), and The Mexico Fund, Inc. (NYSE: MXF) have exposure here as well.
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