An SEC filing from Monday showed that Alcoa management approved on May 15, 2013 the permanent shutdown and demolition of two potlines. The capacity being removed is 105,000 metric-tons-per-year the smelter located in Baie-Comeau in Québec, Canada with the remaining capacity of 280,000 metric-tons-per-year composed of two prebake potlines. The company showed that these are among the highest-cost smelting capacity in the entire Alcoa system.

Alcoa is postponing the construction of a new potline there in Baie-Comeau and will begin preparations for the upgrade by investing $100 million in the smelter over the next three years. The closure is projected to result in an immediate 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for this Baie-Comeau facility in Canada.

Alcoa showed that this was part of its 15-month review of 460,000 metric tons of smelting capacity that management is targeting to remove. The two Soderberg technology potlines will now be fully shut down by the end of the third quarter of 2013, with demolition and remediation activities starting in the fourth quarter of 2013 and expected to be closed by the end of 2015.

The charges look big, and frankly the company might want to consider how it uses these charges ahead. Management expects to record restructuring-related charges of between $190 million to $215 million, or $135 million to $155 million after-tax. These charges will remove another $0.11 to $0.13 from earnings per share)in 2013. Some 30% of those charges will be taken in the second quarter. Cash costs during 2013 are expected to reach about $100 million and here is a breakdown of the charges:

• $95 million to $105 million for employee–related costs;
• $55 million to $60 million for the accelerated depreciation of the potlines and related fixed assets;
• $35 million to $40 million for asset retirement obligations resulting from the planned demolition of the two potlines;
• and $5 million to $10 million for other related costs, net of scrap recovery.

Of all the charges disclosed, Alcoa represents that roughly $130 million to $150 million will result in future cash outlays. That figure includes $95 million to $110 million in 2013. Keep in mind that Alcoa has a market cap that is now down to $9.33 billion as a result of its shares not participating in the bull market. While Alcoa generated $23.7 billion in 2012 global sales, its net income attributable to common holders was only $191 million.

Alcoa shares are up 1.4% at $8.73 in late-Monday trading and the 52-week trading range is $7.90 to $9.93.

The key trend is that companies still are managing to meet or beat earnings expectations. Corporate revenues are coming in soft, to the point that the concerns cannot just be ignored. These soft revenue reports are even after many analysts had lowered sales expectations ahead of and during earnings season.

We have just lowered our own forecast for the payrolls expectations with unemployment this Friday, following weaker TrimTabs payrolls and ADP payrolls reports. Even construction spending is starting to cool off. Market technician Carter Worth of Oppenheimer recently indicated on CNBC that the market is even more bifurcated than it has been in the past going into this May cycle.

One bit of good news may be that Merrill Lynch sees several breakout stocks despite the Sell in May history. We are growing more concerned that companies are lowering their expectations for sales in the rest of 2013. Europe keeps reporting lower and lower growth, or worse outright worse into recession territory. Japan’s only saving grace is coming from a massive stimulus package from the Bank of Japan under Abe.

Our take is that the easier earnings and sales growth cycle has peaked, at the same time that the stock market is up well above 10% after the first 4 months of the year. The stock market is supposed to be a voting proxy for what things will look like six months or so into the future. And long-term bond yields are hitting back at very low levels rather than rising. At some point, investors may not be able to stomach the valuations they are paying for these so-called defensive stocks and for high-yield dividends that are getting less high by the day. Junk bonds just hit another cycle low, and we even called it a crush-depth valuation.

We are now already at about 70% of the S&P 500 Index companies that have reported. What are we supposed to consider when growth is anemic on earnings and sales growth is nonexistent? We now may be facing only 2.5% or 3% earnings growth ahead, depending upon which source you are focusing on.  The risks ahead are combined for big multinational players because of a high dollar value and weak organic demand from Europe and Asia.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was perhaps the biggest disappointment to us this whole earnings season if its drop was “only” about 10% from peak to trough. GE is the best yield of the DJIA conglomerates but shares were shelled after earnings. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is also showing no sales growth at all, and its “high” dividend hike was actually a severe disappointment to us. Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) has limited growth as well, and the only good news here on its earnings was that it was at least anticipated. Even United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) has taken it on the chin. More concern came in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and in J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) now that we have seen a serious bank call that the best has been seen for 2013 from financials. And what are you supposed to make of it if Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is out yet again looking to cut capacity even further that will result in layoffs.

The lower copper and oil prices have to be considered as well, as they signal economic weakness ahead. Oil inventories just came in at the highest reading ever since they started tracking them.

Investors keep buying up stocks. Maybe that will continue, but the strong performance at some point has to be based upon something more than that the Fed and Treasury will keep the money cheap and keep the asset buying and quantitative easing measures around perpetually.

Read Also: Biotech Bubble Against Big Pharma Valuations?

What is funny is that we here are not really scared of stocks and valuations in many instances. The problem is that this is very selective and there are many cross currents that do not add up in a logical manner for value investors right now. Maybe the ISM forecast of the U.S. avoiding a 2013 recession and a surprising rise of consumer confidence are all that really matter ahead for the bulls.

The first thing that Alcoa noted is that aluminum prices have fallen more than 33% from their peak in 2011. Facilities across the entire Alcoa system will be reviewed, but the focus will be on higher-cost plants and plants that have long-term risk due to factors such as energy costs or regulatory uncertainty. What the company is warning (or projecting) is that curtailments could affect as much as 11% of Alcoa’s global smelting capacity. That is on top of what is already 13%, or 568,000 metric tons, of smelting capacity idle as of now.

Alcoa said that it will consider a wide variety of alternative actions, like discontinuing pot relining to full plant curtailments or permanent shutdowns. The company also said that its alumina refining system will be reviewed to reflect any curtailments in smelting, as well as prevailing market conditions.

Alcoa has reconfirmed that a review of its primary metals operations is consistent with its internal 2015 goal of lowering its position on the world aluminum production cost curve by 10 percentage points and the alumina cost curve by 7 percentage points. Unfortunately, that means more furloughs or layoffs are likely coming down the pipe.

Chris Ayers, President of Alcoa’s Global Primary Products, said, “Because of persistent weakness in global aluminum prices, we need to review every option to maintain Alcoa’s competitiveness. Any action taken will only be done after a thorough strategic review and consultations with stakeholders.”

Shares of Alcoa stock are trading down 2%, at $8.33 so far this Wednesday, against a 52-week range of $7.90 to $9.93. Wall Street often rewards layoffs with a higher share price. Unfortunately, at some point an industry cannot keep scrapping and cutting its way to prosperity.

Alcoa remains one of the worst Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks of 2013 and shares are down almost 4% so far in 2013. For comparison, the DJIA is up about 13% so far this year.

The 2013 primer for “Sell in May and Go Away!” will be more concise and quick-hit. More detailed and recent background data is available in links, for a broader, fresh reading on each point.

Maybe this really was supposed to be a “Sell in April” call as the markets have become choppy after huge gains. Investors have high profits that they can still lock in, but many investors still have managed to miss the bull market without making much in profits outside of their bond funds. Due to attempts to chase returns and to catch up on missing five years of retirement investing, the first quarter saw record inflows of capital into stock funds, if you measure the past decade or so. The fact that interest is being rekindled in stocks actually may lead to some stabilizing support in May, even if the economic data remains spotty to cautious.

Corporate earnings are coming out mixed. The overall focus of just earnings and guidance is positive on the bottom line, but revenue growth for the major companies remains stodgy and hard to find this year. Weak international markets and emerging markets are playing into that, as is the rising value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

Economic readings are showing only modest growth or contraction. If you have looked at the various purchasing managers’ index readings and the regional Federal Reserve and regional economic reports, the sentiment is either in the red, showing contraction, or growth that remains so low that it might as well be contraction.

Europe remains a serious point of weakness. Somehow the tiny banking island nation of Cyprus managed to dwarf the problems of Greece, Italy and elsewhere. Now we have France effectively in a recession again, and Germany’s reports are teetering back to recessionary levels. If these readings do not improve, then growth forecasts for later in 2013 will revert to recessionary projections. That is bad for exporters. The U.K. even lost another Triple-A rating.

China and emerging markets are less than robust. The recent International Monetary Fund and other international meetings point to emerging markets not being strong enough to support their internal growth projections. Growth in Brazil and Russia may be better than in India, but the whole BRIC complex is running below its capabilities. China has been called the growth engine of the world but it also is showing more manufacturing weakness as well.

Consumers are facing pressure. Weaker consumer sentiment has come after the start of higher taxes, but commodities may help stabilize the bleeding. Consumers have had to face higher payroll taxes and higher food prices. Overall inflation is tame. This is hurting sentiment and some spending measurements. The good news here is that lower oil prices will save consumers directly at the pump, which helps them have more spending money for restaurants, entertainment and other consumer spending issues. If oil prices remain low, this may be a stabilizing force against what would otherwise be a less than robust consumer. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and even Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) are all within 1% or so of multiyear highs in their share prices.

Broader economic barometer companies are faltering. Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) showed serious concerns about the year ahead for pre-infrastructure and mining outfits. The only saving graces were that investors already were figuring this into the share price and that the company will spend up to $1 billion to repurchase shares on the cheap. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) managed to meet many expectations, but this one had run up and valuation met what is obviously going to be slower growth ahead for this economic bellwether as well.

Banking excitement has petered out. The post-earnings reaction to banks has not carried the 2012 excitement much further into 2013. It is getting harder to find the same enthusiasm around Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Even a discount to book value argument has not yet handily changed after about four years of recovery. Jamie Dimon even warned of more regulatory action ahead.

Technology is waning for the bulls. The good news is that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) managed to hold up better than expected after earnings. The bad news is that Windows 8 has been partially blamed for a weak PC sales cycle that was the worst in years so far. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has lost its way and wrecked many investor fortunes who wanted to chase what was supposed to be a sure thing. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) showed not just that it had little growth, but contraction. It simply may have run out of room to grow.

Metals have been serious points of weakness. Both have hit multiyear lows, but gold has wrecked more market-oriented finances and weak miner trends may imply that gold has not found a new investor base yet. Copper forecasts have come down due to the global demand and supply issues, and copper is arguably one of the biggest leading indicators of them all for emerging market and Chinese expansion. Elsewhere in metals, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) manages to keep selling a very slow and targeted turnaround story, and its shares are still lower than before its recent earnings and guidance.

A Recent History of “Sell in May and Go Away!”

At the end of April of 2012, there was a long road of political hate ahead of the U.S. presidential election, with an economy that was still sluggish but avoiding recession. The labor data was still choppy, with unemployment at about 8.2% due to lower labor force participation rates. Earnings growth was slowing then as well, and Europe was actually even more of a concern in 2012 than it is in 2013. The good news is that equity values were attractive and the FOMC still had more quantitative easing measures in its pocket at the time, with the pledge of maintaining an “exceptionally low rate policy” through the end of 2014.

The year 2011 felt close to a repeat of 2010, with the worries not just about the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain), but about the possibilities of a U.S. debt rating downgrade, which did ultimately come. Housing was still in the tank and employment was not yet in a full-blown recovery in America. While the end of April to the end of May did see a drop of 800 points in the DJIA, from almost 12,900 in late April and early May to just above 12,000 by late May and 11,900 by late June, it was late July and August that were the cruel months for the DJIA as companies began to suffer serious earnings concerns. The DJIA bottomed out just under 10,600 in August. By late October the market was back above 12,000 again.

But 2009 was a very different year because the market was recovering from the crash and stocks were still benefitting from that move. Summer of 2010 has a nasty start as investors worried about a double-dip recession, as housing prices continued to sink and unemployment was still a prime concern. We also faced that punishing event called the “Flash Crash.” Another big distraction was BP PLC (NYSE: BP), for its disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, and America and the rest of the world was starting to consider some problems in nations called the PIIGS. The market peaked around 11,300 in late April and had sunk to a 9,800 by early May. Even around July 6, the DJIA was only near 10,200, and it was only back up to almost 10,500 after the end of August around Labor Day.

Caterpillar managed to post a profit of $880 million, or $1.31 per share, for the first quarter. That is down almost 45% from a year ago as sales were down about 17% at $13.2 billion. Note that Caterpillar already had warned of a challenging environment in 2013. Dealers have lowered inventory by $700 million in anticipation of weakness, and Caterpillar’s full-year guidance for 2013 was down to $7.00 in earnings per share on sales of $57 billion to $61 billion. The prior forecast was $7.00 to $9.00 per share on $60 billion to $68 billion in revenue.

Caterpillar has decided to use the share price weakness to its advantage and said that it will repurchase up to $1 billion in its shares during the second quarter. Again, we expected weakness, based on the economic reports being weak and due to how the stock price had been. The good news is that things were not even worse, which is why Caterpillar shares are up 1.2% at $81.40 in early Monday trading.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has many perceived overlaps with Caterpillar, but its stock was doing better due to agricultural demand. Deere is up 0.2% at $83.60 on Monday, but that is still way above its 52-week low of $69.51. Caterpillar shares are only about $3 above their 52-week low. Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY) is where we see the real ties to caterpillar in mining equipment. Its stock is down 0.4% at $53.98, and it has a 52-week range of $47.69 to $73.10. Our one concern on Joy Global is that it barely one-tenth of the size of Caterpillar.

Our largest concern is in the metals and mining markets. These shares all have been so weak that we think much of the bad news is already starting to get priced in here, as China is slowing again and as Russia and other emerging markets are having sporadic growth issues (or worse). What is driving the concern is that a bottoming out may take much longer than expected now. Investors looking to pile into metals and mining may have a lot more volatility and timing pain than they may have seen in the past as gold mining and other mining operations are being idled or slowed due to demand and price issues.

Take United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) as an example, with its drop of 1.3% to $16.17 so far on Monday. With a two-week range of $16.01 to $29.25, the share price is already telegraphing and pricing in weakness ahead. The concern that we face now is that there may be no sudden recovery. If the pricing here remains, then the stock market may be signaling that things will be weak for the rest of 2013. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is still down after its earnings, despite a tiny gain so far on Monday. At $8.10, its 52-week range is $7.90 to $10.01.

Even a more solid outfit like Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) is down 0.6% at $42.13, against a 52-week range of $34.23 to $48.60. This steel giant now may have more caution ahead as well, although management has historically been very good at managing to mitigate weakness by adding to strengths during leaner times.

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO) is a mining and processing giant when it comes to anything metal coming out of the ground. Some were hoping that bad news was priced in, but Caterpillar is perhaps one drag this morning as Rio Tinto ADRs are down 1.2% at $44.15, against a 52-week range of $41.59 to $60.45. Ditto for Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), where shares are down 0.45% at $28.10, against a 52-week range of $27.24 to $43.65. Take a look at any gold miner out there and you can see real weakness over the course of 2013.

China’s growth is slowing and it already has empty cities built up that remain empty. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has just spoken his concerned over the slowdown seen in Russia. Growth in India has been disappointing, and now we have seen that cement firms have decided to lower their capital spending plans, based on weak growth prospects. Fears have grown that even Brazil is not immune to weak China growth indications.

Caterpillar shares may be positive after a weak earnings report because it was expected. Unfortunately, its guidance being this low is a signal on the broader global scale for mining and metals that we are more unlikely to see any sudden snap back or quick turnaround later in 2013. If we do not see one in late 2013, then that is likely to lower expectations even for 2014.

One key issue is that we have never updated our own DJIA 2013 upside target of 14,590 even though the DJIA went 300 points over that. Our value of the stock market will be updated soon. We still think stocks have not peaked for the year, but the bull market just got too far ahead of itself. We are seeing a front-running of the “sell in May and go away” mantra. Again, this is good news for long-term investors.

Earnings season is well into full swing and we have evaluated many DJIA stocks that have reported earnings. In doing so, we have seen which ones investors are likely to build positions in on weakness ahead and those that will require more selling or more weakness before investors start buying. We are evaluating the current price performance through earnings season and our expectations ahead on the following DJIA stocks: International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA).

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is the first big concern, as it is actually the largest weighting of all stocks in the DJIA. This drop of almost 7% to $193 is after closing at $207.15 yesterday. We analyzed earnings and the bottom line is that IBM just cannot grow. So how is that good news? IBM will have some trimming again in its ranks (layoffs), and it is likely to sell off a couple of underperforming drags on the business. The company’s services backlog rose by $1 billion to $141 billion. This takes IBM back to where the stock was at the start of 2013, and we expect a big dividend increase announcement and an even larger stock buyback announcement in the coming days. A $14 drop in the stock price may not mark the absolute bottom, but long-term investors are likely to start nibbling in here and may try to build a position in the coming weeks if they missed the run.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is a dominant economic force, but not so much when it comes to the DJIA because of the index being price-weighted. GE earnings were truly nothing to write home about, and the stock is down 4% at $21.78. Its chart performance ahead of earnings was signaling that the price rise of 14% from the end of 2012 to the $23.90 year high was running too far ahead of itself. But now shares are down almost 10% from their recent peak after a 4% drop to $21.75. With a 3.3% dividend yield that is higher than all major conglomerates, investors likely will view any further weakness merely as an opportunity to start nibbling and legging into the stock.

McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) is down 2% at $99.85 after its earnings disappointed. The reality is that McDonald’s just is unable to keep up with the gains made in prior years, and it could be in a no-growth era now. Its market value is $100 billion and is worth more than all of the public restaurant stocks combined. McDonald’s also trades at a P/E premium to the broader market. That being said, Mickey-D’s has a 3% dividend yield that is the envy of other defensive restaurant stocks. The pullback is still only $4.00 shy of the 52-week high, and we think that investors may not really get aggressive until (or if) this stock gets back down to $95 or so.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is set to report earnings Monday, but this industrial equipment giant just signaled another month of lower sales in its monthly update. The numbers are really bad, but not as bad as the drop in February: Asia/Pacific was down 24% in March, after being down 26% in February. Latin America was actually up 12% in March, after being up 3% in February. So on a down day, Caterpillar is up by 0.2% on what looks like bad news ahead of earnings. We do not expect a good earnings report, but the stock is barely $2 above the 52-week low and analysts still expect the stock to rise $27 from this base.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is actually up 3.5% at $29.82, despite earnings without excitement. We identified this as one of the DJIA stocks with the most upside for 2013, and so far it is living up to that. We had no illusions about the Windows 8 sales being great, but the software giant just is not as down and out as some have considered. That 3.2% dividend yield helps too.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) managed to show sales and earnings that managed to hold up better than the bears were expecting. One analyst even said he cannot see what the bears are hanging on to, and the company is trying to make its architecture sales growth ramp even further as it tries to really get into mobile. At $22.30, this is above the pre-earnings price, and the dividend yield is a whopping 4.2%. One word of caution is that the stock price is close to the consensus analyst target, but it is still down $7 from a 52-week high.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) has managed to not sell off, and the stock is back at a decade high. We cannot help but wonder how much lower the dividend yield of 4.2% will be able to go from share price appreciation, but that being said, it already went higher than what we expected. Investors are likely to step in if there are any real pullback opportunities here. The question we have is how much higher it can go if it leverages up further to take more of the Verizon Wireless stake from Vodafone.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) is still very important to the economy, but it is very low on the totem pole for DJIA stocks because of such a low price. We identified that its earnings were just not good enough because the stock rose so much this year and was the best DJIA stock of 2012. There is a huge discount to book value, and banking analysts Meredith Whitney and Dick Bove are calling for much higher prices.

Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) showed a drag on earnings due to the impact of currencies. There is still a secular threat to soft drinks in developed markets as well. With this stock still within pennies of a multiyear high, it seems that those who want to own Coke do own Coke. Also note that this beverage giant is trading at close to 20 times this year’s expected earnings.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has the recall and quality control issues behind it. Earnings allowed it to hit a new all-time yet again. Most of its business lines are growing, and currency did not kill its efforts. The 2.9% dividend is about to go up, and we expect that as soon as the coming week.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is still lower than it was when it reported earnings. The banking giant is still up 10% or so in 2013. The 3.2% dividend yield is keeping investors interested, and the consensus price target remains close to 20% implied upside at $55 on the stock. If this weakens further, investors likely will start nibbling in again over the coming weeks.

We already have said that Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) needs to lose its “earnings season indicator” status. This stock remains in the doghouse, as it is only 2% above the 52-week low. A turnaround here requires much patience and optimism. Investors are overlooking this one, but it has such a small DJIA weighting that it does not matter much to investors on a standalone basis.

The DJIA is down only about 300 points or so from its peak and is still up more than 10% for 2013. We would be careful in not trying to pick any firm or hard bottoms in any individual stocks. You saw how bad gold went recently for those who tried bottom fishing. Building a position can be done over weeks or even months. If “sell in May and go away” takes hold yet again in 2013, patience will be rewarded.

The U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.51% today, now at 82.321. The GSCI commodity index is up 0.7% at 632.31. WTI crude oil closed up 0.9% today, at $94.20 a barrel. Brent crude trades up 1.7% at $106.44 a barrel, following reports of an earthquake in Iran (more coverage here). Natural gas is down 1.4% today at about $4.03 per million BTUs. Gold settled up 0.9% today at $1,586.70 an ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 60 points to 14,673.46 (0.41%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 16 points (0.48%) to 3,237.86, and the S&P 500 rose 0.35% or more than 5 points to 1,568.59.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) maintained as ‘outperform’ with a price target of $600 at Credit Suisse; Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) started as ‘buy’ with a price target of $31 at Argus; First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC) started on “Conviction Buy” list with a price target of $47 at Goldman Sachs; Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) maintained as ‘hold’ at Argus; and Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS) started as ‘buy’ with a price target of $84 at Canaccord Genuity.

The only earnings results of note since last night came from Alcoa, which we’ve already noted. Shares are trading up 0.4% at $8.42.

Before markets open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear from PriceSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PSMT), Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX), Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), Jinkosolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), and Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN).

Some standouts among heavily traded stocks today include:

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is up 46.9% at $39.71 after posting a new 52-week high of $41.00 earlier today. The solar panel maker guided 2013 revenues and earnings above estimates and shares soared, pulling other solar stocks along for the ride. More coverage here.

J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) is down 12.2% at $13.93 after posting a new 52-week low of $13.90 earlier today. The department store retailer fired its CEO last night. More coverage here and here.

Vale SA (NYSE: VALE) is up 5.6% at $18.38. The world’s largest iron ore miner received an upgrade today and is expected to benefit from a proposed change in Brazilian tax law. Other basic materials stocks also posted gains today, including Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF).

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher are giving speeches. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association weekly purchase applications
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 1:00 p.m. – 10-year note auction
• 2:00 p.m. – FOMC minutes
• 2:00 p.m. – U.S. Treasury budget

Alcoa beat earnings but was light on revenue. The company tried to maintain again that there would be 7% growth this year. The good news is that things actually are improving at the aluminum giant. The bad news is that this remains a restructuring story. Another reason we think that this company is overrated is because other companies have unseated its dominance.

Having a market cap of almost $9 billion hardly seems worthy of being one of 30 members of the DJIA. And with a share price less than $9, it is also a weakling on the DJIA, as the key investor index is price-weighted rather than market cap-weighted like the S&P 500.

Alcoa shares are down 1.4% at $8.27, but frankly the report seemed like one that, with the stock down about 5% so far in 2013, should have been good enough. That being said, Alcoa is no harbinger of earnings season, or when it is, then it is a coincidental reading rather than a leading indicator.

If you want companies that will beat earnings, Merrill Lynch offered a fresh list of eight large companies that it feels should beat earnings expectations during this earnings season.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) says its Focus was the number two car in the world in 2012 based on total sales. (Reuters)

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) will seek claims from NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) for the botched Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) initial public offering. (Reuters)

Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) will buy Microsoft Corp.’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) IPTV business. (Reuters)

Japan’s new stimulus program makes European bonds attractive. (WSJ)

News Corp.’s (NASDAQ: NWSA) Fox may pull its broadcast signal because it says Aero steals it to make money. (WSJ)

Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) cuts 150 jobs at its movie studio. (WSJ)

Lenders who finance the Portugal bailout want the country to make more cuts to get its next payment. (WSJ)

China’s consumer inflation drops to 2.1% in March. (WSJ)

Fisker Automotive may enter bankruptcy. (WSJ)

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) claims that J.C. Penney again violated its agreement with Martha Stewart Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO). (WSJ)

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) will launch a low-powered server to help its turnaround. (WSJ)

Google Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) plans to offer high-speed fiber in some regions may hurt cable. (WSJ)

Google’s competitors file complaints about its practices with EU regulators. (NYT)

Money management firm BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) says the Fed should cut back on QE3. (FT)

Alcoa Inc.’s (NYSE: AA) results are helped by demand for cars. (FT)

Trouble in the European Union causes German exports to drop in February. (Bloomberg)

Rumors of a buyout by Warren Buffet boost shares of Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP). (Bloomberg)

The aluminum giant reported earnings of $0.13 EPS net and $0.11 EPS on an adjusted basis, above the most recent Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.08 EPS on an adjusted basis. This is even above the estimate of $0.10 EPS (adjusted basis) from last week before it was taken down by analysts. Revenue for the first quarter was $5.83 billion, while the consensus was about $5.88 billion. Sequentially, that revenue is down 1% and it is down 3% year over year.

CEO Klaus Kleinfeld has just tried to sell the positive case for the company calling it a good and solid quarter. He also talked about creating value and making the upstream business better. The company ended the quarter with $1.6 billion.

Alcoa continues to project 7% global aluminum demand growth in 2013 along with essentially balanced alumina and aluminum markets. The aluminum giant also believes that 2013 will continue to be a slightly tighter market as the supply contracts. Alcoa reduced its surplus projection for aluminum from 535,000 metric tons in the fourth quarter to 155,000 metric tons this quarter based upon curtailments. Individual growth projections are as follows:

• aerospace 9% to 10%
• automotive 1% to 4%
• commercial transportation 2% to 7%
• packaging 2% to 3%
• building and construction 4% to 5%
• and industrial gas turbine 3% to 5%.

As a reminder for guidance ahead, the Thomson Reuters consensus targets for the second quarter are $0.14 EPS and $6.23 billion in revenue. For all of 2013, the consensus estimates are $0.53 EPS and $24.4 billion. Alcoa trades at about 15-times this year’s earnings estimates and just under 10-times the expected 2014 earnings estimates.

Alcoa shares closed up 1.8% at $8.39 and the shares are still looking for direction after earnings.