Still No Greek Deal

The situation with Greece’s debt, which seemed better for a few hours as its leader met with European Union, European Central Bank and IMF officials in Brussels, is bad again. It appeared that those three groups would release the money Greece needs to cover its March obligations so as not to default. But that capital comes with strict restrictions, and the Greeks may be unable to accommodate them. Greece has to show its financiers that planned austerity programs are well underway and that all of the political powers in the country have endorsed them. That broad political endorsement is by no means assured as leaders jockey for the approval of sullen voters who believe austerity measures have gone too far.

Google Home Entertainment

Rumors have started to spread across the tech world that Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will release a home entertainment system that can stream music throughout people’s homes. The press has speculated that the world’s largest search company believes it can follow Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) into the hardware business. Apple is widely admired for its ability to marry devices with apps and entertainment. Google has started down the path of hardware integration with it purchase of handset firm Motorola (NYSE: MMI). Google may find the going rough, though. Most hardware companies have very modest margins, or make no money at all, as companies that make products to compete with the iPhone and iPad have already discovered.

Additional Job Cuts

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) and Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) are the latest multinationals to “reorganize” their businesses for the future. At Alcatel this means a cut of 1,800 people. At Pepsi it means dropping 8,700 workers. These restructurings are presented to investors and the press as ways to drive efficiency and margins. A look below the surface at most companies that take this path reveals that sales have faltered and management needs a way to show investors that they can make even modest returns.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The Hong Kong division of Alibaba may go private as part of a refinancing and a buyback of Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ: YHOO) shares. (Reuters)

Financial backers of Greece say they are concerned about whether a deal to lend the company more money will hold. (Reuters)

Economists concerned about the U.S. economy a few months ago change their opinions. (Reuters)

A fall off in investment bank activity hurts Barclays (NYSE: BCS) earnings. (Reuters)

China’s imports fall, raising demand concerns. (Reuters)

The new CEO of Sony (NYSE: SNE) will try to marry hardware and software for many of the firm’s products, just as he did with the PS3. (Reuters)

The head of Xstrata is under pressure to get a better deal for a Glencore merger. (Reuters)

A new settlement between banks and the government could help one million homeowners. (WSJ)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to launch a home entertainment system as it moves into the hardware space as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has. (WSJ)

An insider trading bill is broadly supported by Congress members. (WSJ)

Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) expands its use of web-based software products. (WSJ)

The FDA will speed the approval of biosimilar drug treatments. (WSJ)

An Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) reorganization could cost 1,800 jobs. (WSJ)

Weekly unemployment benefits numbers improve steadily. (WSJ)

Greek unemployment rises to 20.9%. (WSJ)

The head of the European Central Bank pushes banks to take inexpensive loans to stabilize eurozone financials. (WSJ)

Canada will allow uranium exports to China. (WSJ)

A Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS) and Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA) partnership to marry physical games with online ones. (WSJ)

Southern Co.’s (NYSE: SO) plan to build a reactor in Georgia receives NRC approval. (WSJ)

Apple’s market cap passes that of Google and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) combined. (WSJ)

New research suggests the education gap between rich and poor has widened. (NYT)

German officials are worried that the ECB has cut lending standards too much. (FT)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 7 points to 12,890.61 (0.05%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.39%) to 2,927.23, and the S&P 500 rose 0.15% or 2 points to 1,351.96.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including A123 Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) cut to ‘sell’ at Wunderlich; Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) cut to ‘hold’ at S&P Capital IQ; Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) reiterated as ‘hold’ with $15 target price at Cannacord Genuity; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) cut to ‘perform’ at Oppenheimer and named ‘Bull of the Day’ at Zacks; and 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) cut to ‘hold’ at Deutsche Bank. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) got a lift from a target price increase to $665, which we cover here. We’ve also got a story on how Apple gets 80% of the operating profit among all the phone makers.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is down -2.1% at $20.00 (here’s our coverage); American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) is down -8.74% at $5.50; Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is up 5.9% at $63.25; Dunkin’ Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: DNKN) is down -2.35% at $28.33; Lorillard Inc. (NYSE: LO) is up 9.8% at $124.46 after posting a new 52-week high of $127.68 earlier today; Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is down -3.6% at $64.37 (our coverage here); Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is up 2.8% at $80.08 after setting a new 52-week high of $80.99 earlier today; Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is nearly flat at $2.19 (additional coverage here); and Teradata Corp. (NYSE: TDC) is up 10% at $63.85 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today of $64.97.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU) is up more than 79% at $6.02. The sugar refiner and marketer said it is nearing a sale of one of its divisions.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is up 20% at $11.08. The solar panel maker is getting a big boost from a report that China will add about 3,000 megawatts of solar PV generation this year, although some analysts think the total will be double that. Other Chinese solar panel makers are also getting a nice bump from the news. We have another view of the sudden rise here.

Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is down more than -36% at $23.36 after posting a new 52-week low of $21.44 earlier today. The snack food maker will re-state accounting and that jeopardizes the deal to purchase the Pringles brand from Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG). See our coverage here.

Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) is down more than -15% at $20.82. The Internet coupon company posted weak earnings last night. See our coverage here.

Taleo Corp. (NASDAQ: TLEO) is up more than 17% at $45.62 after posting a new 52-week high of $45.71. The maker of cloud-based software is being acquired by Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). More coverage here and here.

Ceasars Entertainment Corp. (NASDAQ: CZR) is down about -3.8% at $14.80. The share price nearly doubled at yesterday’s IPO, to a high of $17.90, but the stock is coming back to earth today.

Stay tuned for Friday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto are speakingWe have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade report
• 9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report
• 2:00 p.m. – US Treasury budget report

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

Paul Ausick

Handset makers Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MMI), Sony Ericsson, LG Electronics, and HTC Corp. trail far behind in profits, with only Nokia, Samsung, and HTC posting any profit at all. Sony Ericsson posted an operating loss of -$317 million in 2011 and Motorola lost -$19 million. LG managed to break even.

In market share by operating system, Apple’s iOS trails the Android operating system from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), with 19% to Android’s 48% at the end of 2011. Canaccord Genuity estimates that at the end of this year, Android will hold 57% share to Apple’s 22%. The wild card here is Nokia’s coming introduction of new smartphones using the Windows Phone operating system from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Compared with profits, though, operating system market share doesn’t mean much, especially because Google distributes Android for free. And that free software is probably the only thing that allows Samsung and HTC to make a profit at all.

What gives Apple its staggering profit share is the company’s ability to price its iPhones at a premium other vendors’ offerings. Apple is clearly forcing its competitors to race to the bottom and compete with one another on price. Ericsson has already abandoned its joint venture with Sony. Why Sony plans to continue losing money probably has more to do with management egos than anything else.

Motorola, which is about to be acquired by Google, is also in a precarious position. Because Android doesn’t cost any of its competitors anything, the Google/Moto tie-up gains no advantage from the acquisition. HTC, which has fouled up its inventory management, might not have enough time to sort itself out. LG can hold on for a while because it is large enough to absorb some losses (-$266 million in the first 3 quarters of 2011), but there’s really no reason for the company to continue to bleed to death.

Samsung saw its share of the industry’s total operating profits fall from 26% in the third quarter of 2011 to 15% in the fourth quarter. And it looks like the third quarter was the aberration, probably due to impatient consumers who would have bought the iPhone 4S if it had been available by late September.

Samsung is expected to grow its market share from 19.5% in 2011 to 26.3% in 2012. That doesn’t really help much though, as Samsung’s problem is that its profit share is quite vulnerable. The company simply doesn’t have the thought leadership position in the smartphone marketplace and there is no way for the company to price its phones to yield maximum operating profits. Its position remains at the front of the line of also-rans.

Canaccord Genuity raised its price target for Apple to $665/share today, and we have more coverage on that here. Apple shares are up about 3.6% just before noon today, at $493.72 after posting a new 52-week high of $495.12.

Paul Ausick

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer; named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
AU Optronics Corporation (NYSE: AUO) targets raised by Nomura and also by Credit Suisse.
A123 Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) Cut to Sell at Wunderlich.
Elan Corp. (NYSE: ELN) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Cut to Hold at S&P Capital IQ.
Ingersoll-Rand plc (NYSE: IR) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Montpelier Re Holdings (NYSE: MRH) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) Resumed as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) Started as Overweight at Barclays.
Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Reiterated Hold with $15 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

See the new high $665 price target on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) from this morning.

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

Your email address

subscribe

terms and conditions

JON C. OGG

Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) posts earnings that trouble Wall St. and its shares fall by 10%. (Reuters)

A deal on mortgage data and foreclosures between five banks and state attorneys general is close to being done. The amount of the settlement will be about $25 billion. (Reuters)

Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) posts a drop in Q4 results. (Reuters)

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) posts poor results due to metal prices. (Reuters)

Levovo beats earnings forecasts as its market share rises, and it will produce a TV product for Chinese consumers. (Reuters)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to launch a cloud storage product. (WSJ)

The House probably will approve a bill to regulate insider trading by members of Congress and their staffs. (WSJ)

China and Canada to increase official trade relations. (WSJ)

China’s CPI rises to 4.5% in January — up from 4.1% in December. (WSJ)

Some car companies press sales in Indonesia as the number of drivers there surges. (WSJ)

Chrysler may set a deal with banks for consumer and dealer loans that would replace its relationship with Ally. (WSJ)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) tightens it approval process for apps used on the iPad and iPhone. (WSJ)

Petrobras (NYSE: PTR) estimates of its reserves and the P&L they may create could be too optimistic. (WSJ)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) buys much of AIG’s (NYSE: AIG) troubled bond portfolio, which dates back to 2008. (WSJ)

Two million homeowners could benefit from a $25 billion settlement over mortgages reached between five banks and the government. (NYT)

Car sales in China fall 24% in January. (NYT)

Young people are watching TV more and more on PCs. (NYT)

BP (NYSE: BP) is conversing with the U.S. government over claims from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and may settle. (Bloomberg)

Sarkozy’s approval ratings in France are near all-time lows for a president. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Change.org reports that 194,426 people have signed the electronic document. A note next to the petition claims that “Apple products are made in factories where conditions are so bad, it’s not uncommon for workers to permanently lose the use of their hands.”

The petition also requests that the Fair Labor Association, which Apple has joined and which monitors suppliers, print a list of Apple suppliers which violate its rules.

Those objecting to Apple’s labor practices do have a problem. The labor activity in China may have an effect on Apple’s brand, but so far, that has not happened. There have been no known protests at Apple retail outlets anywhere in the world. From a practical standpoint, Apple’s manufacturing process can barely keep up with demand when it releases new products.

The loss widening out was based upon the higher costs of the iPhone.  If our math is correct, the narrower loss is simply because they sold fewer iPhones against expectations.  How is that possible.  If one carrier is not going to drop your call with excess capacity, it is Sprint.

The company is taking a loss up front to get a gain in ongoing monthly subscriber service fees. Shares were apparently up over 4% earlier on, but the stock is up 1.6% at $2.49 in the pre-market at 8:43 AM EST.

With a 52-week range of $2.10 to $6.45, is it fair to still wonder if Sprint is truly a viable company.  The cost savings from network consolidations and its other operating cost efforts are only part of the help.  Sprint needs to figure out a way to win more subscribers, and more importantly it needs to ensure that it can make those customers profitable under even a base case subscriber scenario.

JON C. OGG

Yahoo! Shakeup

Four Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) directors will leave the battered internet portal company. Those departing include chairman Roy Bostock, who has been blamed for Yahoo!’s inability to get a good CEO and to set a strategy for the firm to recover from a weak internet advertising market. Yahoo! added two independent directors, Alfred Amoroso and Maynard Webb. Amoroso served as president and CEO of Rovi Corp. (NASDAQ: ROVI) until December 2011. Webb, the chairman of LiveOps, served as that company’s CEO until July 2011. Neither has particularly impressive credentials. But, even if either did, Yahoo! set no policy to solve its most immediate problems. It still has not disposed of its ownership positions in Yahoo! Japan or China e-commerce firm Alibaba. Neither stake does anything to help Yahoo!’s business operations. The disposal of the shares would add substantially to the firm’s balance sheet.

No Greek Fix

All of the participants in the resolution of the Greek sovereign debt crisis continue to refuse to act in a way that would bring the problem to a head. The European Central Bank apparently is willing to exchange some of its debt for new paper, the result of which would be to cut that southern European country’s debt load. Private investors have mostly agreed to terms to cut the value of their debts. Most Greek leaders have buckled to pressure to cut more government costs. Some of Greece’s unions continue to march in the streets to protest wage cuts. And, day after day, nothing is resolved.

Airbus and Boeing Woes

Two of the world’s newest commercial aircraft continue to have mechanical problems. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that a Qantas Airbus 380 super-jumbo has wing cracks. It is not the first of the planes to have the problem. Airbus has suggested an inspection of the model. In the meantime, some remain grounded. Some of Boeing’s (NYSE: BA) new Dreamliner 787 will not make it to airlines on schedule. Support structures in the aft fuselage of the plane have developed gaps. That could cause a series of inspections and a probable slowdown in factory production.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A House committee pushes through plans for a reconsideration of the Keystone XL pipeline. (Reuters)

The chairman of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to leave. (Reuters)

Nissan posts better earnings on strong sales. (Reuters)

An attempt to bolster money market funds may involve setting up a capital buffer and blocking redemptions for 30 days. (Reuters)

A hacker releases source code from security firm Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC). (Reuters)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) may close a transaction to allow the e-commerce company to stream premium video from Viacom properties. (Reuters)

The European Central Bank will change the treatment of its Greek debt to try to salvage a bailout deal. (WSJ)

Some large investors disapprove of a merger deal between Glencore and Xtrata. (WSJ)

General Motors (NYSE: GM) will again try to cut workers at Opel. (WSJ)

UBS (NYSE: UBS) to cut bonuses by 60%. (WSJ)

CalSTRS says it has concerns about the diversity of Facebook’s board. (WSJ)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) asks the European Telecommunications Standards Institute to set rules for patent licensing among mobile device companies. (WSJ)

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti believes Europe must move beyond austerity to plans that will help create growth. (WSJ)

U.S. businesses upgrade plants and move jobs back to the U.S. (WSJ)

European sales of U.S. companies rose in the fourth quarter, which may cause a problem this year as the region’s economy slows. (WSJ)

Six Spanish banks to set aside €11.8 billion because of real estate trouble in the country. (WSJ)

India becomes more open to foreign investment as its economy slows. (NYT)

As Greece fails to set a deal on its debt, more workers go on strike. (NYT)

U.S. stocks reach a six-month high. (FT)

Collateralized mortgage obligations, one of the causes of the credit crisis, are again popular investments for banks. (FT)

Prices for Canadian oil drop sharply as supplies surge. (FT)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) to fire 4,000 and move more production to Asia. (Bloomberg)

The Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) board rejects a $5.7 billion offer from Roche. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre