2012 Picks in Semiconductors from analyst Bobby Burleson:

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) reiterated Buy with $38 price target; Integrated Device Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDTI) reiterated Buy with $7.00 price target.

“While we remain concerned about near-term softness in PCs and communications and acknowledge the potential for another number cut, we believe the worst cuts are behind us. Heading into 2012, we like names with broad-end market exposure and low PC exposure like Analog Devices and Integrated Device Technology.”

2012 Picks in Communications Technology from analyst T. Michael Walkley:

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reiterated Buy with $560 price target; QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) maintained Buy with $74.00 price target; and Sierra Wireless, Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIR) with a $9.00 price target.

“While we anticipate global handset units will increase by 7% YoY in 2012 to 1.72B units, we anticipate much faster growth trends for the smartphone  market. In fact, we are modeling 481M smartphone units in 2011 ramping to 650M units in 2012, or 35% YoY growth.”

2012 Picks in New Media & Location Technology from analyst Jeff Rath:

Trimble Navigation Limited (NASDAQ: TRMB); Velti PLC (NASDAQ: VELT); KIT Digital, Inc. (NASDAQ: KITD); and Rovi Corporation (NASDAQ: ROVI).

“We fully expect the US Pay-TV service provider eco-system to undergo an accelerating change as cable providers roll out more robust OTT/Hybrid video offerings in response to growing competitive pressures, and in an attempt to stem ongoing losses of its core video subscribers.”

2012 Picks in Enterprise Software from analyst Richard Davis:

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) and Nuance Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN).

“Software companies – at least firms with next generation architectures – are in great shape. Cloud software accounts for less than 10% of installed code. Barring horrific economic headwinds, the “revolutionaries” on which we focus our coverage are very likely to gain market share at the expense of legacy competitors”

2012 Picks in Internet from analyst Michael Graham:

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) reiterated Buy with $725 price target and Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) listed as n attractive acquisition target and the firm has an organic (non-M&A) price target of $32.00 for the stock.

“We believe the underlying drivers will be growth in online advertising, eCommerce, mobile commerce, and social networking adoption.”

These are the picks we have been sent by Canaccord Genuity’s research relations.  The firm has many other picks in technology which did not make the 2012 list.

JON C. OGG

We have earnings previews for the following: Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI); Brocade Communication Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD); Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ); Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN); Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB); Nuance Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN); Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P); and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).  Estimates are from Thomson Reuters and these are broken out by day.

Monday

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) has estimates of $0.64 EPS and $728.17 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.60 EPS and $707.37 million in revenue.  With shares around $35.50, the 52-week range is $29.23 to $43.28.

Brocade Communication Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is not a market mover but it is still way off its year high while some of its peers have been calling things better in their business of late.  Estimates are $0.10 EPS and $527.38 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.11 EPS and $535.6 million in revenue.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) is hardly even in the midst of a turnaround.  Meg Whitman is still getting her hands around the business and Dell gave a mixed report of late.  Estimates are $1.13 EPS and $32.06 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $1.11 EPS and $31.44 billion in revenue. We will be looking at the company’s comments around manufacturing problems for drives for its PC around the flooding in Thailand.

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) has estimates of $0.31 EPS and $8.19 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.39 EPS and $8.17 billion in revenue.  At $19.50, its 52-week trading range is $15.46 to $20.12.

Tuesday

Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) has estimates of $0.79 EPS and $2.21 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.66 EPS and $2.16 billion in revenue.  Shares are right at $33.50 and the 52-week range is $29.69 to $35.66.  This one in the middle of a strategy change to get back to more flavorful soups and away from being such low-salt.

Nuance Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN) is also set for Tuesday and the speech-to-text software leader’s estimates are $0.41 EPS and $393.33 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are $0.38 EPS and $378.78 million in revenue.  At $24.00, the 52-week trading range is $15.56 to $26.97.

Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) is still kicking around after its IPO.  The online music playing company has estimates of -$0.01 EPS and $71.44 million in revenue; next quarter estimates are -$0.03 EPS and $82.25 million in revenue.  Its stock is around $12.55 and the post-IPO range has been $9.33 to $26.00.

Wednesday

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has estimates of $1.43 EPS and $7.87 billion in revenue; next quarter estimates are $1.26 EPS and $6.17 billion in revenue.  At 74.50, Deere has a 52-week range of $59.92 to $99.80.
JON C. OGG

We have compiled the news summaries and the moves on each.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NYSE: ADI) is lower after reporting a rise in third quarter profits but warning that Q4 will be weak due to global uncertainty.  Shares closed at $31.35 and shares are down about 2% at $30.78.

Blue Coat Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BCSI) is getting crushed after it is forecasting a loss or gain of -$0.04 to $0.04 EPS versus estimates of $0.20 and higher.  It has also been downgraded or seen target cuts at many brokerage firms in research calls.  Shares are down 24% at $13.30, under the 52-week low of $14.91 and versus a $17.68 close yesterday.

Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) is up after reporting a 42% rise in earnings and word that it is making an acquisition of a retailer in Florida.  Shares are up over 7% at $13.50 in pre-market trading.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) beat on the bottom line but turned in light revenues and guidance was light on sales as well.  Shares are down close to 6% at $14.85 or so this morning on active volume.

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) may be worth more in a breakup according to Bloomberg as it discusses $3 billion value for the patents alone.  Shares are indicated up more than 10% above $2.50 this morning.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down on news that one of its top executives named Jens Meyerhoff is leaving the company after September 30.  Shares are down about 3% at $101.75 this morning.

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) is getting a bit of a bounce of 2.3% to $27.15 after a substantial loss on Tuesday after Merkel and Sarkozy proposed a financial transaction tax of some sort. Shares were as high as $28.52 yesterday and closed down at $26.54.

Photronics Inc. (NASDAQ: PLAB), which manufactures photomasks for the chip sector, managed to post earnings gains and shares are responding handily.  Shares closed at $5.62 and the pre-market trading is up 9% at $6.13 on thin volume.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is down on news that the FDA is extending its review of EYLEA (aflibercept injection) by three months.  Shares are down almost 5% at $54.68 in pre-market trading.

Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) is getting a big bounce after the office supplies retailer beat earnings and managed to forecast solid results ahead too.  This one has been sold off big from highs and shares are up about 8.5% at $15.43 on active pre-market volume.

Sunrise Senior Living, Inc. (NYSE: SRZ) popped last night and is indicated higher this morning after Jim Cramer on CNBC’s MAD MONEY said that it is a small and under-followed speculative company that could potentially make homegamers a lot of money.  Shares closed at $6.84 and the stock is indicated up around $7.25 this morning.

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JON C. OGG

Investors will be watching earnings reports from the following: Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS); LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK); Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW); Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI); Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL); Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD); TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX); Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT); Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE); DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS); JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ: JDSU); NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP); Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS); Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT); Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD); GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME); Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS); Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ); Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM); and Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD).

We did not include the consensus analyst price target this week because the data looks very skewed since it has not been fully updated to reflect the new estimates.

Monday, August 15

Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) has Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.25 EPS and $1.42 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.31 EPS and $1.36 billion in revenues.  Keep in mind that the consensus group is too small for us to have much faith in estimates.   Shares are trading around $42.50 and the 52-week trading range is $19.26 to $61.08.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) has Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.44 EPS and $716.37 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.33 EPS and $740.77 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $6.36 and the 52-week trading range is $4.97 to $15.10.  With the woes of solar and with the woes of Chinese accounting, LDK could be up huge or down huge.

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) has Thomson Reuters estimates of $0.67 EPS and $14.78 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.35 EPS and $11.97 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $19.26 and the 52-week trading range is $18.97 to $27.45.  That 52-week low was hit on Friday.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDRX) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE: BHP) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE: BYD) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
KiOR, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIOR) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE: MAR) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Cut to Neutral at Baird; Maintained Neutral but cut target to $12 at Credit Suisse; Maintained Buy with $22 target at Argus.
Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB) Cut to Sell at Argus.
Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. (NYSE: SKH) Started as Underperform at BofA/ML.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) Reiterated Buy with $35 target at Argus.
Yandex N. V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Citrix Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CTXS) fell 10% after it announced it would buy Cloud.com. Analog Devices Inc (NASDAQ: ADI) fell 9% as other shares in its sector were punished by poor results

This is a much different list from our true tech-value stocks for the rest of this year.  We have identified how much these shares have dropped from their highs, but we have also looked at basic data concerning a forward P/E ratio for next year’s earnings and broken out the return on equity from Finviz.  When you look at the consensus analyst price target, the companies look even cheaper in most cases.  There is one caveat that has to be considered and that is that analysts will have to lower estimates through next week for the year ahead and that will of course change the valuations.  We are not looking for any immediate gains solely based on value.  The idea is to identify those situations where the drop has been enough and where the bad news may be close to priced in ahead of time.

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI)  recently closed at $36.56, down 15% from its 52-week high; about 10% of that loss has been in recent days. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 12 and a 27% return on equity (ROE).  Analysts still have a consensus target north of $45.00 versus a 52-week high of $43.28.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) recently closed at $12.64, down 26% from its 52-week high. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 9.2 and a 20.5% return on equity (ROE). Analysts have a consensus target of about $15.75.  As the big daddy of chip cap-ex, the Novellus news hit here as well.  The forward estimates are almost always low for Applied, so there is no reason to jump the gun thinking that large earnings multiple expansion is heading this way.  In fact, value is often a value trap here in Applied Materials and in many cap-ex stocks in the sector.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) recently closed at $6.34, down 32% from its 52-week high. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 8.4 and a 61% return on equity (ROE).  The big problem with AMD remains relevance.  This is the turnaround that just never seems to really turn around.  The math has looked “cheap for a while” and the value trap argument seems to prevail.

Cirrus Logic Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS) recently closed at $16.30, down well over 30% from its 52-week high and almost $10 shy of its $26.00 consensus analyst target. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 10 and a return on equity (ROE) of 62%.  With a $1.1 billion market cap, our biggest concern is that it is in the class of companies which could have “big hits and bad misses” when it comes to living up to earnings expectations.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) recently closed at $22.48, down just over 5% from its 52-week high. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 9.4 and a return on equity of 27%.  Intel has recently embarked on new initiative from tablets to security and to embedded systems.  Unfortunately, Intel falls into the same “tech utility” category and its nature is now entirely different from in the past.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) recently closed at $41.18, down 23% from its 52-week high. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 8.4 and a 25% return on equity.  The reason SanDisk trades with a cheap multiple is because the company’s leadership in flash memory is subject to great swings throughout the business cycle.  Another issue is that when SanDisk is in the middle of its 52-week range like this it offers a technical no-man’s land.  This is one that may not be dirt cheap value nor a value trap.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:  TXN) recently closed at $31.00, down over 15% from its 52-week high. The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 11.2 and a 31% return on equity.  With a large acquisition in the hopper, all we can do is consider the “value” on a standalone basis with serious caveats.

Xilinx Inc. (NASDAQ: XLNX) recently closed at $33.92 versus a 52-week high of $35.42, still well under 10% from highs.  The company has a forward price to earnings multiple of 14 and a 28% return on equity.  Unfortunately, this one just does not jump out in the screens other than its return on equity.

So, here are the comparable issues to consider.  Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MCHP) is now down about 20% from its 52-week highs, while Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) was down more than 20% from its 52-week highs.  As you can see, some chip stocks named here are down a similar amount but others still have a way to go.  It is very possible that “value” in semiconductors may still be more of a value trap until things normalize.

The ETF that rules in chipland is the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH).  With a price of $32.88, its 52-week trading range is $24.14 to $39.99.  An 11% discount from the 52-week high may entice some buyers, but there is still room to argue that this highly unbalanced ETF may not be close enough to “cheap” as of yet as Intel and Texas Instruments both have more than 20% of the weighting here.

Earnings season is upon us.

Jon Ogg & Jim Berdou

Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS), the chip equipment and cap-ex player, managed to beat earnings but revenues were soft as the sales were down about 15% to $350.2 million with earnings coming in at $0.79 EPS.  We had estimates from Thomson Reuters of $0.76 EPS and $352.3 million.  That is not such a bad miss on revenues in the current climate, but Novellus said that bookings were down some 25% from the first quarter at $312 million and shipments fell by about 5% to $376.9 million.  The company said that its customers remain cautious and it also expects bookings to continue to fall as PC shipments are soft.  Its guidance for the coming quarter is now $0.60 to $0.75 EPS on $300 to $340 million in revenues, but Thomson Reuters had estimates of $0.86 EPS and $359.7 million in revenues.  Novellus is only a $3.5 billion market cap and its shares are down 5.6% at $33.75 in the after-hours.  Here is how peers in chip cap-ex are being hit:

• KLA-Tencor Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) -3% at $40.99 in after-hours $7B market cap);
• Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) -2.5% at $43.76 in after-hours ($5.5B market cap);
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) -0.5% at $12.90 indications ($17B market cap).

Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MCHP) confessed after the close that its sales be about $373.3 million for the quarter, down about 1.5% sequentially and down from a prior forecast for a gain of 1% to 5% sequentially, as its sales activity did not progress as well as expected.  Non-GAAP earnings were put at $0.53 to $0.55 EPS rather  than the prior range of $0.58 to $0.62 EPS.  More importantly, the company is seeing a broad weakness due to auto businesses and due to an inventory correction after Japan’s quake and tsunami.  The company also cited a weaker global economic condition and less-robust computing sector sales. The company is now targeting the September quarter sales to be lower sequentially by the low- to mid-single digits.  Microchip Tech is a $7 billion market cap company and its shares are down by 7.4% at $34.70 in the after-hours.  Here is how some larger peers in chipland are holding up:

• Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) -1.6% at $31.90 ($37B market cap);
• Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) -2.6% at $37.52 ($11.5 billion market cap).

On a broader note, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (NYSE: SMH) is down about 1.5% at $33.66 in the after-hours session and that is after a 1.4% drop in regular trading today.  Its 52-week range is $24.14 to $36.99.

These two companies today will not likely dominate earnings season entirely for technology and chip stocks, but they are early reporters and the comments may be interpreted in other aspects of tech as well.  Some of the larger companies may not be seeing the same news.  Still, these were the first reports for earnings season in the world of semiconductors and it is setting at least an overall cautious tone for the sector.

JON C. OGG

Air Lease Corporation (NYSE: AL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAG) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Raised to Outperform at BMO.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) Reiterated Sell at Argus.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Education Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: EDR) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) Maintained Underperform at BofA/ML.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Medtronic Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Cut to Sell at Argus.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Raised to Buy at Auriga.
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ: ODFL) Reiterated Strong Buy as Aggressive Growth at Zacks.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Raised Target to $41 as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Potash Cor. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Tesoro Logistics LP Common Unit (NYSE: TLLP) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo; Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse; Started as Buy at BofA/ML.
Universal Forest Products Inc. (NASDAQ: UFPI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Wisconsin Energy Corporation (NYSE: WEC) Cut to Hold at Argus.

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JON C. OGG

Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $53 at Gleacher & Co.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Reiterated Buy at BofA/ML.
Dana Holding Corporation (NYSE: DAN) Reiterated Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Raised estimates but Maintained Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Gildan Activewear Inc. (NYSE: GIL) Started as Buy at BofA/ML.
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Reiterated Outperform and Focus List at Credit Suisse; Maintained Buy with $28 target at Gleacher & Co.
IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) Reiterated Buy and Raised estimate at Argus.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) Raised to Neutral at UBS.
Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) Started as Buy with $33 target at UBS.
Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $125 at Argus.
Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Vodafone Group plc (NYSE: VOD) Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more. 

JON C. OGG