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Junior Gold/Silver Miners Surge (XRA, TGD, AXU, THM, GSS, ASM, FSM, AUMN, KGN, AEM, GG, IAG, GOLD, RGLD, GLD, GDX, GDXJ)

Paul Ausick — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 18:13:41 +0000

Of the top 25 price gainers today, 15 are gold or silver miners, most are the juniors, and all are up about 9%-12%. Recent weak US employment news and a pricey dollar-euro exchange is sending investors back into gold, and there’s no cheaper play than the small mining companies. Most still rely on a combination of borrowing and venture funding with occasional production revenue.

The leading gainer is Exeter Resource Corp. (AMEX: XRA) which is up 12.6% at $2.05 in a 52-week range of $1.69-$5.79. The exploration stage company looks for gold and copper and owns a 100% interest in a project in Chile. The Canadian-based company reported no revenue in 2010.

Timmins Gold Corp. (AMEX: TGD) is up 12.6% at $1.89 in a 52-week range of $1.45-$3.44. Another Canadian-based development stage company with properties in Mexico, Timmins posted about $91 million in revenues in 2011.

Alexco Resource Corp. (AMEX: AXU) is up 11.3% at $5.12 in a 52-week range of $4.23-$9.32. Another Canadian firm with operations in Canada, the company reported revenue of about $42 million in 2011.

International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (AMEX: THM) is up 11.6% at $3.62 in a 52-week range of $2.40-$8.58. The Canadian-based company owns a 100% interest in an Alaskan gold project and reported no revenue in 2011.

Golden Star Resources Ltd. (AMEX: GSS) is up 10.4% at $1.17 in a 52-week range of $0.90-$3.12. Based in Colorado, the companies holds interest in African and South American mines and reported revenue of $471 million in 2011.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (AMEX: ASM) is up 10.5% at $1.36 in a 52-week range of $1.12-$3.36. The Canadian firm has interests in Canada and Mexico and reported no revenue in 2011.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (NYSE: FSM) is up 10.6% at $4.29 in a 52-week range of $3.10-$7.67. The Peruvian-based firm owns gold and silver properties in Mexico and Peru. The company reported revenue of $110 million in 2011.

Golden Minerals Co. (AMEX: AUMN) is up 9.8% at $3.82 in a 52-week range of $3.24-$20.99. The Colorado-based company holds properties in Mexico and South America and reported revenue of about $1.8 million in 2011.

Keegan Resources Inc. (AMEX: KGN) is up 9.3% at $3.59 in a 52-week range of $2.35-$9.63. The Canadian firm explores for gold in West Africa and reported no revenue in 2011.

Some larger gold miners getting a good boost today are Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) up 8.9%, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) up 9.6%, Iamgold Corp. (NYSE: IAG) up 9.2%, Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ: GOLD) up 9.3%, and Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) up 10.8%.

Virtually all the junior miners’ stocks are trading nearer to their 52-week lows than to the highs, emphasizing the speculative nature of these investments. That’s true of some of the larger miners as well. Only Royal Gold, which does no mining but instead takes shares of production in mines operated by many miners, is trading closer to its high than to its low. In that respect, it is more of a pure play on gold than on mining companies.

Speaking of gold plays, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (AMEX: GLD) is up more than 4% at $157.81 in a 52-week range of $143.97-$185.85. The two mining company ETFs, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDXJ) are up 6.6% and 6.9%, respectively today.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Commodities & Metals Tagged: AEM, ASM, AUMN, AXU, FSM, GDX, GDXJ, GG, GLD, gold, GSS, IAG, KGN, RGLD, TGD, THM, XRA

After The Fall, Huge Upside & Value In Gold/Silver Miners (GDX, SIL, ABX, GG, NEM, AU, KGC, AEM, GFI, AUY, IAG, HMY, EGO, RGLD, SLW, PAAS)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 22 May 2012 14:44:10 +0000

Gold and silver have finally indicated that the free fall we saw over the last month may have at least stabilized. The markets are mixed today in the commodities and the miners and we admit that no one truly knows what is the bottom-dollar that these can hit and no one knows the real top-dollar that investors will pay in a rally. What we do know is that the sell-off has literally gutted many of the key players in gold and silver and there is huge upside and value here if the consensus analyst price targets for one year from now are anywhere near correct.

At issue may be a stock market stabilization, or perhaps it is a stabilization aimed solely at the commodities and those companies which profit from either the rise of commodity prices or the rise of the demand for those commodities. It was just yesterday evening that Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter was talking up gold miners as his method of choice to play the current bounce in gold.

To show just how much implied upside there is we found some large cap gold stocks that have upside of about 100% and many of the big players have implied upside of well over 50%. The key ETFs for these miners show just how widespread the damage was during the last sell-off. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) trades at $43.35 against a 52-week trading range of $39.08 to $66.98 and that is down about 35% as a group from the highs. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (AMEX: SIL) trades at $18.00 against a 52-week range of $16.54 to $29.05 and that is down almost 38% from its high in the last year.

We included the implied dividend yields but due to foreign issues and ADRs causing currency translations and due to some payouts not being quarter like U.S. companies do, we would urge you to only consider the dividend as a footnote and something you should be verifying on your own. Besides that, who buys gold (and silver) miners because of their dividend yields only?

We have evaluated the following large-cap gold stocks: Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX); Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG); Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM); AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU); Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC); Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM); Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI); Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY); IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG); Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY); Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO); and Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD). We have covered also two of the larger silver players of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) traded at $37.60 and has a market value of $37.6 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $59.10 and the 52-week range is $34.82 to $55.95. Barrick has a dividend yield of 2.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target: 57% but we would note that the target is above the 52-week high.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) traded at $34.90 with a market value of $28.2 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.42 and the 52-week trading range is $32.16 to $56.31. Goldcorp’s most recent yield was listed as 1.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 73% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

Filed under: Commodities & Metals Tagged: ABX, AEM, AU, AUY, EGO, GDX, GFI, GG, HMY, IAG, KGC, NEM, PAAS, RGLD, SIL, SLW

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AET, AEM, APD, ALU, MDRX, AMZN, AMCC, BIDU, CBG, CTCT, DECK, EBAY, LOGI, PCS, PM, REGN, SNDK, STX, WDC, ZNGA)

Jon C. Ogg — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 12:17:32 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls this Friday.

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Reiterated Buy with a target price of $55 at Argus.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Maintained Underperform and cut estimates at Jefferies.

Allscripts Healthcare (NASDAQ: MDRX) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML; Raised to Buy at Nomura; Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs; Maintained Hold but raised target to $230 at Canaccord Genuity.

Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (NASDAQ: AMCC) Cut to Hold at Wunderlich.

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) Maintained Neutral but target cut at Credit Suisse.

CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE: CBG) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Constant Contact (NASDAQ: CTCT) Cut to Neutral at Janney; Cut to Market Perform William Blair.

Deckers Outdoor Corp. (NASDAQ: DECK) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $48 from $40 at Argus.

Logitech International (NASDAQ: LOGI) Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas.

MetroPCS (NYSE: PCS) Cut to Hold at Argus; Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $94 from $88 at Argus.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML; Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; Maintained Hold but cut target to $13 from $15 at Canaccord Genuity.

AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox. We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, AET, ALU, AMCC, AMZN, APD, BIDU, CBG, CTCT, DECK, EBAY, LOGI, MDRX, PCS, PM, REGN, SNDK, STX, WDC, ZNGA

Gold & Silver Miners Love Low-Rate Outlook (SLW, PAAS, GG, NEM, KGC, AEM, GDX, GDXJ, SIL)

Jon C. Ogg — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:07:06 +0000

Silver and gold miners just got some great news today after having lost so much luster in recent months. The FOMC has now telegraphed that it expects that interest rates will remain exceptionally low through at least the end of 2014. While an expectation is not a formal pledge nor a formal promise, this is much longer than what the public had been told over and over before. The prior language was “through at least mid-2013″…

Silver Wheaton Corporation (NYSE: SLW) is up 6.7% at $34.07, and the 52-week trading range is $25.84 to $47.60.

Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) is still only flat at $21.85 but it was lower before the FOMC comments today. The 52-week trading range is $19.93 to $43.06.

Goldcorp Incorporated (NYSE: GG) is up 5.2% at $46.70, and the 52-week trading range is $39.93 to $56.31.

Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) is up 3.4% at $59.43, and the 52-week trading range is $50.05 to $72.42.

Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) up over 6% at $11.23, and the 52-week trading range is $9.96 to $18.25.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM) up 8% at $37.23, and the 52-week trading range is $34.36 to $76.49.

ETFs are rocking as well. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is up 5.3% at $54.58 against a 52-week range of $49.22 to $66.98. Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (NYSE: GDXJ) is up 6.5% at $28.66 against a 52-week range of $22.58 to $42.97. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is up 3.9% at $23.69 and the 52-week range is $19.05 to $31.34.

The logic is simple enough… This signals extremely low interest rates and low costs of borrowing. It also signals that investors will have to look elsewhere yet again to seek higher returns than short-term and intermediate-term Treasuries. As this means that rates will be low in the U.S. for longer than expected, that is going to drive a weak dollar policy as long as things remain static in Europe and in other major economic zones. That is the perfect storm for gold and silver as they are often inversely correlated to the dollar.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, GDX, GDXJ, GG, KGC, NEM, PAAS, SIL, SLW

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (GDI, HBC, AGCO, WCRX, FRX, WIN, RYN, RS, AEM, BMI, K, SHLD, MCP)

Jon C. Ogg — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 13:56:23 +0000

Finding analyst calls from Wall Street research and brokerage firms on the last trading day of the year is a bit like looking for four-leaf clovers. Still, there are a few analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE: GDI) named as the Value Stock of the Day at Zacks Investment Research. HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) was named as the Bear of the Day and AGCO Corporation (NYSE: AGCO) was named as the Bull of the Day by Zacks Investment Research.

Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX) lowered price target to $25 and Forest Labs Inc. (NYSE: FRX) target cut to $40 at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Windstream Corporation (NASDAQ: WIN) Started as Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were added to the #1 (Strong Buy) List at Zacks Investment Research. The Zacks additions to the #5 (strong Sell List are as follows: Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM); Badger Meter Inc. (NYSE: BMI); Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K); and Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD).

Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) is one where we said earlier in the week that the efficient market theory cannot be applied, and Zacks included it on the Strong Sell ratings list this morning to close out 2011.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, AGCO, BMI, FRX, GDI, HBC, K, MCP, RS, RYN, SHLD, WCRX, WIN

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AEM, AVL, BRCD, CSTR, EV, ERTS, FINL, GILD, GOOG, GDOT, MRH, RIMM, SLXP, WEN, WYNN)

Jon C. Ogg — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 13:21:05 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls this morning.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AMEX: AVL) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Eaton Vance Corporation (NYSE: EV) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
The Finish Line, Inc. (NASDAQ: FINL) named Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) Raised to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Green Dot Corporation (NYSE: GDOT) Started as Outperform at KBW.
Montpelier Re Holdings (NYSE: MRH) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Neutral at Stern Agee.
Salix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SLXP) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
The Wendy’s Co. (NYSE: WEN) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, AVL, BRCD, CSTR, ERTS, EV, FINL, GDOT, GILD, GOOG, MRH, RIMM, SLXP, WEN, WYNN

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (AAPL, WMT, WFM, MS, BAC, INTC, WMB, HGSI, ABT, OXGN, PWAV, AEM)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 20:20:24 +0000

Stocks opened down this morning following the earnings report Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) after markets closed yesterday. Moody’s downgrade of Spain’s sovereign debt also weighed on the opening. The Consumer Price Index for urban consumers rose by 0.3%, and just 0.1% excluding energy and food costs. Housing starts rose by an unexpected 15% as condos and apartment construction was prompted by more demand for rental units to push markets to a mid-morning gain, but by noon share prices had given a lot of that back on continuing uncertainty about what’s really happening in Europe. The Federal Reserve Beige Book was released at 2 p.m. ET, and its uninspiring reports sent markets sharply lower, from about 25 points up on the Dow to more than 70 points below yesterday’s close.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 72 points to 11,504.70, the NASDAQ fell more than 53 points (2.01%) to2,604.04, and the S&P 500 fell 1.26% or more than 15 points to 1,209.89.

Today’s top analyst upgrade and downgrade calls were numerous and included Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Whole Foods Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM), and about a dozen other companies.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reported better than expected earnings for the quarter, following yesterday’s positive report from Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC). Morgan Stanley got a big lift from an accounting gain that lowered the value of its debt by $3.4 billion, thus boosting the bank’s revenue to $9.9 billion. Even without the gain, MS posted EPS of $0.02, There has been a turnaround from the indicated loss in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) after its earnings showed that book value managed to actually grow and the stock was up almost 10% at $6.63 late in the session.

As far as the other big earnings report reactions today (prices within 20 minutes of the closing bell): Apple is down more than -5.5%, at $398.78; Morgan Stanley up 0.3%, at $16.68; Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is up about 3.5%, at $24.22; Yahoo is up 2.78%, at $15.90.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE: WMB) rose again by another 1.7%, to $29.55, after investors are considering it a cheap merger alternative to the El Paso buyout by Kinder Morgan this week.

Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) had another big day on merger speculation up, up nearly 8%, at $13.83, and here is how it ranks with analysts other price targets for biotechs ahead of the biotech earnings floodgates.

Abbot Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) rose 1.62%, to $53.29, following the announcement of the company’s intention to split its branded drug business from its other product lines.

Oxigene, Inc. (NASDAQ: OXGN) got a nice boost of about 12.55%, to $1.59, following good data on the survival benefits of its anti-thyroid cancer drug.

Powerwave Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: PWAV) warned of a revenue shortfall of more than 50% for its third quarter. The shares lost nearly -42% of their value, to fall to $0.85, after posting a new 52-week low of $0.68 earlier in the day.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) has suspended operations indefinitely at its mine in Val d’Or, Quebec, due to unstable ground and inflows of water. The stock has fallen by -19%, to $46.21.

Stay tuned for Thursday. We have speeches to watch from Lockhart and Kocherlakota on the docket as well as a 30-year TIPS auction. Here are some economic releases due in the morning and throughout the day:

8:30 Unemployment Benefits Claims for last week
8:30 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators
10:30 Natural Gas Report
4:30 PM Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AAPL, ABT, AEM, BAC, HGSI, INTC, MS, OXGN, PWAV, WFM, WMB, WMT

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AGU, AEM, AXP, AMR, BHP, COF, CMG, SNP, CEO, JNY, ERIC, PTR, RVBD, SODA, SON, SWC, WRB)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 12:27:47 +0000

These are some of this Tuesday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen having an impact from Wall Street research calls. Despite the weakness, there are still upgrades taking place.

Agrium, Inc. (NYSE: AGU) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) Raised to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw.
BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) Started as Outperform with $370 target at Credit Suisse.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (NYSE: SNP) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
The Jones Group Inc. (NYSE: JNY) Value stock of the day at Zacks.
LM Ericsson Telephone Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE: SON) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) Removed from Focus List ar Credit Suisse.
W.R. Berkley Corp. (NYSE: WRB) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, AGU, AMR, AXP, BHP, CEO, CMG, COF, ERIC, JNY, PTR, RVBD, SNP, SODA, SON, SWC, WRB

John Paulson’s Big Stock Changes (BAC, C, AEM, AU, COF, GFI, GRFS, JPM, LIFE, NYX, RAH, THC, WFC, GLD, NWSA)

Jon C. Ogg — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 22:08:54 +0000

No money was injured while filming

Billionaire and hedge fund manager John Paulson of Paulson & Co. and of Paulson Management is a widely followed equity hedge fund manager for whale watchers. He has made billions of dollars, but 2011 is proving to be a very tough year. We have tracked some of the more obvious portfolio changes in the Paulson 13F filing from this evening (as of June 30):

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) has been trimmed to about 60.4 million shares, down from about 123.6 million from March 31, 2011. It is likely that Paulson has trimmed even more as the price tanked, unless he bought more last week during the panic. Keep in mind that there are some additional warrants for 29 million shares expiring in 2019 and some 9.68 million warrants expiring in 2019. Both warrant positions are smaller than the May 16 filing as well for the March 31 cut-off date.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) was also cut to 33,505,002 shares and there are warrants for another 225,000 shares. The split adjusted shares on March 31 were 41.2 million shares.

A partial list of the standout changes we saw are as follows…

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) is a new small position listed as 700,0000 shares as of June 30 that was worth some $44.2 million at the time.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) is a lower ADR stake as the June 30 position was listed as 39,935,382 versus what was listed 41,046,974 on March 31.

Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is one that Paulson actually grew to 21,100,000 as of June 30 versus 18,000,000 as of March 31.

Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI) was down slightly listed as 24,700,000 shares on June 30 versus 26,050,000 on March 31.

Grifols, S.A. (NASDAQ: GRFS) is a new position for Paulson and the ADR’s worth was $107.1 million for the 14,266,995 shares as of June 30.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was cut to 47 million shares as of June 30 versus 50 million shares as of March 31.

Life Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: LIFE) was listed as a new position of 7,520,000 shares as of June 30. That stock has been pounded since June 30 when shares were above $50.00 versus $38.84 today.

NYSE Euronext Group Inc. (NYSE: NYX) was a new position of 3,000,000 shares as of June 30, implying he is ready to profit from the buyout (merger).

Ralcorp Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RAH) is a much higher position as Paulson must think the buyout merits are there… This was listed as 3,692,000 shares at June 30 versus only 400,000 back on March 31. Nice gains have been made since.

Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) is one where Paulson must think a buyout will ultimately come because he has added Tenet as a pick whereas it was not on there before. The new position was listed as 20,000,000 shares.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was listed as being 33,600,000 shares as of June 30, but this is a gain compared to the 20,500,000 shares as of March 31.

The big surprise is that the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) was kept static at 31,500,000 shares worth some $4.59 billion as of June 30. What is interesting is that if he has stuck by the position he is up more.

Trouble is apparently no obstacle, if Paulson stuck with this position. News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWSA) was listed as a new position with some 10.4 million common shares.

If you want to see the change in the total value of Paulson’s holdings, it is being confirmed that his value fell. It was listed as $29.05 billion in total for the funds under the filing as of June 30, 2011. The figure total was $34.27 billion on March 31.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Investing Tagged: AEM, AU, BAC, C, COF, GFI, GLD, GRFS, JPM, LIFE, NWSA, NYX, RAH, THC, WFC

Most Sold-Off Gold Stocks (GDX, GDXJ, GLD, AEM, KGC, BVN, GSS, JAG, XRA)

Jon C. Ogg — Tue, 17 May 2011 12:49:04 +0000

Commodities have sold off. You already knew that. What has been seen in the precious metals complex looks a lot like what happened in the oil boom of 2007 to 2008, and many of the underlying stocks have acted in a similar fashion. We have taken a look at some of the key gold issues out there to see if the moves have been exaggerated and to see if some of these may even be oversold. It turns out that gold is only down about 5% and some of the gold miners, producers, and explorers did not really participate in the last leg of the gold rally before the commodity carpet was yanked out from under everyone.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) closed at $54.47 on Monday, up 0.5%, and the 52-week range is $45.88 to $64.62. Shares are up 18.72% from the low and down 15.71% from the high.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) closed at $34.70 on Monday, up only $0.01 on the day, and the 52-week range is $24.25 to $44.86. Shares are still up about 40% from the low but shares are down 22.65% from its high.

When it comes to bullion as a last example, the biggest and best is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD). It closed at $145.37 on Monday after losing 0.2%. The 52-week range is $113.08 to $153.61. The ETF is up 28.55% from the lows of the last year but is down only 5.36% from the highs. Now you know why investors flocked to the real metal rather than in the players of the metal… No tracking risk, at least that is the hope.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) closed at $61.61, down $0.35 on Monday. The consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is currently $85.23 and the 52-week range is $54.12 to $88.20. The company is also still one of the larger gold players with a $10.4 billion market cap. Shares are up almost 14% from the lows but still down about 30% from the highs.

Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) closed at $14.27, after a $0.03 gain on Monday. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $22.68 and the 52-week range is $13.84 to $19.90. This is also one of the larger gold players with a $16 billion market cap. Shares are only about 3% off the 52-week lows and are down about 28% from the highs of the last year.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN) in Peru closed at $39.16 on Monday, Thomson Reuters has an average analyst target of $52.68, and the 52-week range is $32.81 to $57.20. With a market cap of just under $10 billion, shares are still up almost 20% from the lows and down over 31% from the highs.

Golden Star Resources, Ltd. (NYSE: GSS) is one of the smaller companies in our universe of gold players with a $667 million market cap. Shares closed at $2.58 Monday and the 52-week range is $2.58 to $6.01. Thomson Reuters has an estimate of $4.05 although we’d treat that loosely due to its size. Shares are basically at 52-week lows now, but the stock has fallen 57% from its highs. This peaked last November and has been falling ever since.

Jaguar Mining Inc. (NYSE: JAG) closed at $4.31, up $0.04 on Monday, and this is also a much smaller player with a market cap of about $363 million. Thomson Reuters has an average price target of $8.11 on this one and the 52-week range is $4.11 to $10.60. Shares are only up 5% from its 52-week lows, but they are still down almost 60% from the peak. Realistically, Jaguar has been dropping since the middle of last summer.

Exeter Resource Corporation (AMEX: XRA) closed at $4.53, up $0.03 on Monday. The market cap is small at just under $400 million and its 52-week range is $4.50 to $7.92. The stock is right at 52-week lows and is down over 40% from the 52-week high. Exeter has been falling since early last summer.

Picking a bottom in some of these names is close to impossible because of the issues that have been driving them down individually plus the commodities markets having an impact. In others, picking a bottom is simple if you know exactly where the bottom in gold (and silver) happens to be.

If you think the move has been exaggerated in gold, the one in silver put it to shame. Still, those shares have been far more volatile than gold shares and that is for another session.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Active Trader, ADR, Commodities, Commodities & Metals, International Markets, Luxury, Metals, Retail, Trading Alert Tagged: AEM, BVN, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GSS, JAG, KGC, XRA