ACE Ltd. (NYSE: ACE) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.

Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV) Raised to Outperform at RBC.

Booz Allen Hamilton (NYSE: BAH) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) Reiterated Buy with $70 target at Argus.

IPC The Hospitalist Company, In (NASDAQ: IPCM) Started as Buy at Citigroup.

Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Mylan Inc. (NASDAQ: MYL) maintained Buy and raised target to $27 at Argus.

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: UPL) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) maintained Neutral but cut estimates at Credit Suisse.

Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NYSE: WPI) Reiterated Buy with $70 target at Argus.

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JON C. OGG

The AES Corporation (NYSE: AES) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (NYSE: AIV) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) Started as Outperform at KBW.
Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) reiterated Buy and raised target to $50 at Canaccord Genuity.
BRF - Brasil Foods S.A. (NYSE: BRFS) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
CAI International Inc. (NYSE: CAP) Maintained Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
CRA International (NASDAQ: CRAI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) Started as Outperform at Macquarie.
Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM) Raised to Strong Buy at S&P Equity Research (late-Thursday).
Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Regis Corporation (NYSE: RGS) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) Maintained Buy with $170 target at Canaccord Genuity.
Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $24 at Argus.
Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) Raised to Buy at KeyBanc.
Zale Corporation (NYSE: ZLC) Raised to Buy with $4.75 at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

Apartment Investment & Management Co. (NYSE: AIV) just announced that it could sell up to 7 million shares of common stock in an at-the-money offering, although the company said in the release that it did not need the capital as of now.  Shares are down 0.5% at $19.90.

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) is trading lower after it agreed to sell $21 million in preferred stock and in warrants.  Shares are down almost 17% at $0.37 on over 1 million shares.  A penny stock, but a cult penny stock there is.

DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NASDAQ: DWA) is being hit this morning as the Shrk the Final movie debut this last weekend was deemed as an underperformer.  Shares are indicated down 8% at $31.99 on thin volume.

Himax Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: HIMX) is trading up 5% at $2.92 on over 50,000 shares this morning.  This is on continued news of a dividend and over Taiwan depository receipts.

Odyssey Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ODSY) is surging aftyer receiving a $27.00 per share cash buyout from Gentiva Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: GTIV).  Odessey shares are up almost 37% at $26.40 versus a 52-week range of $9.30 to $22.18.  Gentiva shares are down 0.5% at $25.65 on thin volume.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) is up on two bits of good news.  The cellular telecom player was raised to “Buy” at Goldman Sachs based upon lower churn rates and then Barron’s over the weekend gave it a positive article on value and turnaround.  Shares are up almost 5% at $4.63 on relatively strong pre-market volume.

Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC) is up after it was raised to Hold from Sell at Soleil ahead of this week’s earnings  and after Golden Gate Capital took a 25% stake earlier this month.  Shares are up 3.6% at $2.85.  Unfortunately the trading volume is thin.

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Sponsor: 5 best investments for 2010 – The next nine months represent a bold new era for investors.

Apartment Investment & Management Co. (NYSE: AIV) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) Started as Buy at Wunderlich.
Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) Started as Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
Integrated Silicon Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: ISSI) Started as Hold at Auriga.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Massey Energy Co. (NYSE: MEE) maintained Buy at Jefferies.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Started as Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Resumed coverage as Underweight at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG

Agco Corp. (AGCO) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Apartment Investment & Management Co. (AIV) Cut to Underperform at BofA Merrill Lynch.
Airtran Holdings (AAI) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
JetBlue (JBLU) Cut to Equal Weight at Barclays.
Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO)  Started as Underweight at JPMorgan.
Valero (VLO) Cut to Sell at Soleil.

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JON C. OGG
October 14, 2009

Audit Integrity

The corporate communications staffs of these companies and their outside public relation firms will tell their managements to keep quiet and not react. A reaction, they will argue, just makes it look like Audit Integrity knows what it is doing and that there is some validity to their analysis. Audit Integrity is probably counting on that. It will get a lot of exposure for the study and little ,if any, legitimate criticism.

Audit Integrity says its research services support risk management practices that help investors, insurers and others lower risk and improve performance with objective ratings and reports.

The basis by which it determines which companies are in trouble is to look at three methods for examining firms  tha may be in trouble. Audit Integrity says“Each of these three approaches – accounting-based, market-based, fraud-based –is moderately effective on a stand-alone basis in predicting bankruptcies. Since the models are not highly correlated, each model has the potential to add incremental value to the other models. Audit Integrity combined the three approaches to determine whether the accuracy ratio of an aggregate model would surpass that of any single approach.”

The list does include some companies that are probably in deep financial trouble  including Rite Aid (RAD) and Macy’s (M).

Also listed are American Air (AMR), which just raised $2.9 billion, which the analysis probably does not take into account. Transportation companies Continental Air (CAL) and Hertz (HTZ) are on the list.

Some of the better known public companies that have been targeted by Audit Integrity  include advertising giant Interpublic (IPG) and US tire company Goodyear (GT). Not surprisingly, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), a casino firm that has battled for its life for months is included.

The balance of the list is Federal Mogul (FDML), Textron (TXT), Liberty Media Capital (LCAPA), Mylan (MYL), Apartment Investment and Management (AIV), Redwood Trust (RWT), Oshkosh (OSK) and Amkor (AMKR).

Douglas A. McIntyre

Apartment Investment and Management Co.  (NYSE: AIV) Executive VicePresident David Robertson sold another 14,800 company shares early thisweek after the company stock had dropped some 7).

Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) co-founder and Chairman Peter M.Nicholas was forced to sell over $29 million worth of BSX shares, butdon’t feel too bad for him. He’s got plenty more.

Callon Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: CPE) chairman and CEO Fred Callon unloaded110,000 company shares at an average price of $7.84 to meet margincalls.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) CEO Aubrey McLendon has alreadybeen wiped out of essentially all of his shares worth more than 41billion back at the peak.  The sad part is his forced selling may havebeen right at the lows.

Denbury Resources Inc. (NYSE: DNR) CEO Garteth Roberts had 513,000shares sold in involuntary margin calls.  Interestingly enough, thiswas to meet a real estate loan rather than any stock event.

Life Time Fitness Inc (NYSE: LTM) Chairman & CEO Bahram Akradi wasforced to sell roughly $5.6 million in involunarty stock sales sales tocover margin calls.

Provident Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PROV) senior VP Richard Galesold 5,000 shares of company stock at an average of $5.76 to meet amargin call.  CEO & President Craig Blunden disclosed early thisweek that he had to unload 11,929 shares of stock the prior week tomeet margin calls.

Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) chairman and founder William J. Pulte soldsome 760,000 Pulte shares to meet margin calls.  These were apparentlyrelated to loan agreements that involved family members
and a charitable organization.  And who said charity was so great….

Sparton Corp. (NYSE: SPA) Chairman Bradley Smith dumped 12,000 sharesof company stock to meet a margin call. This sale only netted about$22,000.00, but he has had to unload over $500,000.00 so far.

Sterling Construction Co. (NASDAQ: STRL) Chief Executive PatrickManning sold an additional 3,594 shares over margin calls, and it lookslike this brings his tally to more than $750,000.00 in margin callsales. A builder, in Houston….

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NASDAQ: WSM) Chairman & CEO W.Howard Lester has now sold roughly 2.15 million shares to cover margincalls after a last filing this week showed that he sold 1.15 millionshares.  Sadly enough, he nearly sold at the 52-week low.

Jon C. Ogg
October 31, 2008

• Akamai Tech (AKAM) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
• Amgen (AMGN) Started as Buy at Banc of America.
• Apartment Investment & Management (AIV) Raised to Outperform at KBW.
• CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• Kindred Healthcare (KND) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
• Moody’s (MCO) Raised to Overweight at Lehman.
• NewMarket (NEU) Raised to Outperform at Oppenhemer.
• Parker Hannifen (PH) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
• Spectra Energy (SE) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.

Jon C. Ogg
August 4, 2008

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO) is one of the old defensive stocks in a defensive sector: good old investor-friendly and cancer-causing tobacco.  The company recently split off Philip Morris International unit and is in the midst of a buyback and restructuring.  This company didn’t drop the dividend when the stock was butchered in the 1990′s, so now that its business is stable it’s a safe bet that it will try to keep its dividend no matter what.  With a $1.16 dividend (annualized) you have a 5.4% yield as of today and the $1.67 EPS estimate for 2008 and $1.84 EPS estimate for 2009 may actually leave more room for that dividend to increase rather than just stay the same.

Apartment Investment & Management Co. (NYSE: AIV) is one of th larger apartment-REIT’s out there, and it is diversified on property scales and by geography.  REIT’s also have to pay out 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends.  While apartments have not at all been immune from late-pays, the credit crunch, and the soft economy, the one area that sane people can’t eliminate is their roof.  Unless they want to be homeless, destitute, or back with mom and dad, the public has to live somewhere.  Unfortunately that has not translated into share appreciation as this has lost more than 1/3 of its value.  Its $2.40 dividend does seem sustainable with expected FFO (equivalent to EPS) of $3.25 in 2008 and $3.41 in 2009.  Because the price has come off this much, its current dividend yield is almost 6.8%.

AT& T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) are both believed to have safe and stable dividends.  Out of the two, Verizon is in the midst of a larger acquisition.  It is not expected to tie up all the cash that would have been applicable for the dividend, but this does make AT&T as the leader now that its recombination of BellSouth, SBC Communications and the old AT&T are all Ma-Bell once again.  AT&T has a $198 Billion market cap, its dividend is currently $1.60/annualized (4.60%), and forward income estimates of $3.01 EPS for 2008 and $3.38 for 2009 make the dividend more than sustainable for AT&T.

Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is perhaps one of the least exciting of industries, but because it has a monster track record and it has to keep running whether the economy is good or bad (with profits) this one made the list.  The company’s $1.68 dividend (annualized) generates an approximate yield of 4.6%.  The reason this has made the cut in the 4.5% yield threshold is because the stock is so far off of its recent highs.  At $35.10 (Thursday close), its shares are down from almost $48.00.  With over $3.00 in projected EPS in both 2008 and 2009, its $1.68 annualized dividend doesn’t look in jeopardy.  When you consider its recent flurry of price hike announcements and a perception that the pricing power will be able to stick, that seems even more likely today.

Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) is one of the top ten electric utilities in the U.S. with a market cap north of $20 Billion.  Its main operations are in the Carolinas with smaller presence in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky; and it has some Latin American exposure as well.  The utility isn’t immune from current issue, and while its debt-to-equity is lower than many it has lower valuation multiples than many peers (part because of restructuring).  But one things that utilities have historically sought is to be steady dividend payers, and they hate lowering dividends.  Earnings estimates of $1.28 EPS in 2008 and $1.35 EPS in 2009 should allow this giant electric utility to keep on paying out a $0.92 annualized dividend even if it does have to eat some higher costs that can’t be entirely passed down to consumers.

Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH) has been one of the more reliable senior care facility operators and REIT compared to many peers of late.  This sector even fits within our "secular trend" sector as the elderly care facility sector has far more future demand than current and planned supply when you look at the managed elderly care facilities.  Its FFO (EPS equivalent) estimates of $1.71 for 2008 and $1.79 for 2009 should allow the company to maintain its $1.40 (annualized) dividend.  Because the company has made an acquisition and financed it with a dilutive secondary offering, we are not expecting the real earnings jump to come that would increase dividend-eligible income (90% for REIT’s) until 2010 or 2011.  But the income is there to maintain its dividend and the company would likely rather sell stock or take on light debt rather than to cut its dividend to holders. This one isn’t without any risk, but as it is in the middle of a longer-term range and as the company has been a stable operator of nursing homes where others haven’t done as well we feel the company can maintain its high dividend.   

Jon C. Ogg
June 27, 2008

• Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) cut to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen & Co.
• Apartment Investment (NYSE: AIV) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs.
• Gap Inc (NYSE: GPS) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
• NASDAQ OMX (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Started as Neutral at UBS.
• Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) Raised to Overweight from Underweight at Lehman.
• Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) raised to Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
April 4, 2008