Groupon’s shares dropped 15% after its announcement that it lost money in the fourth quarter of last year. It said its “active customers” rose 275% from the same period a year ago to 33 million. Revenue jumped 194% to $506.5 million. And Groupon said sales in the first quarter would be as little as $510 million, up “only”73% from last year. Then Groupon claimed it would continue to have outsized investments for marketing. Many investors are worried that the use of online coupons is a model that consumers adopted only briefly, as well as that rivals like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) have similar services. Beyond that, the lingering issue is whether people clip coupons more than they watch videos, communicate by text or hang out on Facebook. There are only so many hours in an internet day.

People clearly spend a lot of time on Facebook, but there is a debate over what they do. A set of research from Citi released last fall said that people are on Facebook for 16% of their time online, on average. The number eclipsed time spent on Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). But how long does it take to do a successful search on Google before the user moves to a site the search uncovered? Google remains a utility as much as anything else, with search results mixed with ads on similar subjects. It is a nearly perfect match of content and marketing messages, as Google’s numbers have shown. Facebook’s 850 million users interact with friends and acquaintances, for hours it seems, but wandering people are hard to target, even with data on behavior and demographics. Facebook had less than $4 billion in revenue last year. So Wall St. wonders whether the people on the social network care at all about the ads that they see.

There is a cottage industry of research about why people visit online sites, whether they watch video on PCs or TV, and why some websites are better for advertisers than others. None of the research is conclusive enough, at least from the standpoint of many people who review it, to convince experts that time spent on Facebook or Groupon can ever yield the kind of revenue garnered by Amazon.com and Google. At least Amazon and Google can demonstrate a long history of interaction that yields a steady and growing stream of revenue. Each has a future likely to be as good as its past as far as revenue and profits are concerned. Facebook and Groupon have not yet cleared that hurdle.

Douglas A. McIntyre

A House committee pushes through plans for a reconsideration of the Keystone XL pipeline. (Reuters)

The chairman of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to leave. (Reuters)

Nissan posts better earnings on strong sales. (Reuters)

An attempt to bolster money market funds may involve setting up a capital buffer and blocking redemptions for 30 days. (Reuters)

A hacker releases source code from security firm Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC). (Reuters)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA) may close a transaction to allow the e-commerce company to stream premium video from Viacom properties. (Reuters)

The European Central Bank will change the treatment of its Greek debt to try to salvage a bailout deal. (WSJ)

Some large investors disapprove of a merger deal between Glencore and Xtrata. (WSJ)

General Motors (NYSE: GM) will again try to cut workers at Opel. (WSJ)

UBS (NYSE: UBS) to cut bonuses by 60%. (WSJ)

CalSTRS says it has concerns about the diversity of Facebook’s board. (WSJ)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) asks the European Telecommunications Standards Institute to set rules for patent licensing among mobile device companies. (WSJ)

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti believes Europe must move beyond austerity to plans that will help create growth. (WSJ)

U.S. businesses upgrade plants and move jobs back to the U.S. (WSJ)

European sales of U.S. companies rose in the fourth quarter, which may cause a problem this year as the region’s economy slows. (WSJ)

Six Spanish banks to set aside €11.8 billion because of real estate trouble in the country. (WSJ)

India becomes more open to foreign investment as its economy slows. (NYT)

As Greece fails to set a deal on its debt, more workers go on strike. (NYT)

U.S. stocks reach a six-month high. (FT)

Collateralized mortgage obligations, one of the causes of the credit crisis, are again popular investments for banks. (FT)

Prices for Canadian oil drop sharply as supplies surge. (FT)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) to fire 4,000 and move more production to Asia. (Bloomberg)

The Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) board rejects a $5.7 billion offer from Roche. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Greek leaders face a deal for settling sovereign debt matters as workers strike. (Reuters)

Toyota (NYSE: TM) posts good third-quarter profits and says the U.S. will be a difficult market. (Reuters)

Boeing (NYSE: BA) may have trouble with its 787 deliveries after flaws were found in the body of the aircraft. (Reuters)

Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and Redbox set a deal to compete with Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). (Reuters)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) may open a physical store in Seattle. (Reuters)

House Republicans move to reopen debate on the Keystone XL pipeline. (Reuters)

Problems with regulators have made the Medco (NYSE: MHS) merger with Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) less likely. (Reuters)

The U.S. will create programs to help the troubled money market industry. (WSJ)

Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) will bid as the New York Fed auctions risky bonds it got as part of its AIG (NYSE: AIG) bailout. (WSJ)

Greece will cut 15,000 public sector jobs. (WSJ)

Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) wants a 2.25% royalty on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone sales based on IP claims. (WSJ)

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Univision are in talks to create a 24-hour news channel. (WSJ)

India cuts its growth forecast to 6.9%. (WSJ)

Eugene Isenberg of Nabor Industries (NYSE: NBR) gives up a $100 million retirement payout. (WSJ)

The Obama budget will have $3 trillion in cuts over 10 years and $1.5 trillion in new taxes — mostly on the rich. (WSJ)

Japan wants to enter a large Asia-Pacific trade agreement, but the U.S. may object. (WSJ)

Satellite makers say that U.S. regulations make it difficult for them to compete overseas. (WSJ)

Republic Airways (NASDAQ: RJET) is about to sell Frontier. (WSJ)

New LeadershipIQ research breaks companies into four groups based on management style and systems to create results. (WSJ)

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) promotes a manager to be the new CEO of its China operations. (WSJ)

Some large European banks will not take European Central Bank loans because they fear it will make them appear weak. (WSJ)

BP (NYSE: BP) raises its dividend. (FT)

An escrow fund may be set to help Greece instead of all aid money going to the nation directly. (FT)

Farmers to plant the largest corn crop since 1984. (Bloomberg)

Walmart will lower fat, sodium and sugar in some foods. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The company is aiming to bring a site for serious collectors and sports fans and offer a broad selection from official licensees of the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, and the International Federation of Association Football.

Collectors can now browse collectible items by item type, sport, year, team and price.  The offerings will be from trading cards and ticket stubs to game-used jerseys and autographed sports gear.

For many of these products, the store will display the authentication source and condition rating from authentication service providers like Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT), and other such as James Spence Authentication (JSA) and Beckett Grading Services (BGS).

You will not find that T206 Honus Wagner baseball card for sale that we just discussed.  That is for sale for $775,000 and a higher-grade sample just sold for north of $1.5 million.  More detail on investing in the T206 Honus Wagner is here.

As far as how Amazon will assure authenticity, it noted “The emphasis on authenticated selection, combined with our A-to-z Guarantee protection on purchases, allows customers to shop the new store with confidence.”

Buyers should know that this may distort prices paid in many cases.  If a wife or girlfriend wants to buy an item for an intimate other or if a father or mother want to buy collectibles for their kids, they may not have a firm grasp on the prevailing market price ranges that should be paid.

This will not derail the eBay auction dominance nor will it kill the auction houses which auction off the really high-end items.  What it may skew is all of the items out on the market in the under-$50 to $300 priced items.  The baseball memorabilia store’s top 7 items by price are all Babe Ruth signed baseballs and the rank is from over $46,000 down to $10,950.  Thanks, but no thanks. 

Lastly, keep in mind that Amazon has been selling many collectibles items.  This launch is more of a focused effort and it means that Amazon wants to attract many more sellers. The new launch is here.

JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 83 points to 12,716.31 (0.66%), the NASDAQ rose more than 34 points (1.22%) to 2,848.27, and the S&P 500 rose 0.89% or nearly 12 points to 1,324.08.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) raised to ‘outperform’ at Wells Fargo; Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) cut to ‘hold’ at Stifel Nicolaus; Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) raised to ‘buy’ at Stifel Nicolaus; Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus (see our coverage here); and Monster Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: MWW) cut to ‘perform at Oppenheimer. Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) had three ratings changes today: maintained as ‘neutral’ with target price cut to $190 at Credit Suisse; maintained ‘outperform’ but estimates cut at Baird; and target price lowered to $225 at Jefferies.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Amazon.com is down -8.2% at $178.51; Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is up 8.24% at $37.18; Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) is up 3.3% at $45.13; Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO) is up nearly 34% at $4.05; Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) is up 3.8% at $50.13, after posting a new 52-week high of $50.35 earlier today; Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is up nearly 14% at $45.70; Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) is up nearly 10% at $41.98; Northrup Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) is up 2.22% at $59.34; and Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) is up 14% at $61.93.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Key Tronic Corp. (NASDAQ: KTCC) is up nearly 37% at $8.53, after posting a new 52-week high of $8.74 earlier today. The computer peripherals maker posted better-than-expected earnings and revenues after markets closed last night.

Sangamo BioSciences Inc. (NASDAQ: SGMO) is up more than 21% at $4.19. The pharmaceutical maker has announced a collaboration with Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) to develop a hemophilia treatment.

Medivation Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) is up more than 21% at $67.26, after posting a new 52-week high of $70.87 earlier today. The development stage drug maker has reported highly positive results on a test of its late-stage prostate cancer treatment. We have more coverage here.

JDA Software Group Inc. (NASDAQ: JDAS) is down more than -17% at $24.39. The software maker issued a fairly weak quarterly report and continuing investor wariness remains over an SEC investigation of the company’s accounting practices.

IXYS Corp. (NASDAQ: IXYS) is down more than 14% at $11.76. The integrated circuit maker posted poor quarterly numbers after markets closed last night.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking at 10:00 a.m. and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher is speaking in the evening. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger Job-cut data
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve money supply and balance sheet reports

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Paul Ausick

Shares of Amazon are down more than -9% in just before noon today on a weak quarterly earnings report last night. Nearly 13 million shares have been traded so far today, compared with a 3-month daily average of about 6 million shares traded. We have more coverage here.

A big winner this morning has been Whirlpool, which is up nearly 16% solid earnings and a strong outlook. More than 5.5 million shares have traded this morning, compared with a 3-month daily average of around 1.9 million.

AOL is up more than 14% following a quarterly earnings report that missed estimates, but showed a jump in ad sales. More than 3.2 million shares have traded this morning, compared with a 3-month daily average of about 1.4 million.

JDA Software is down nearly -18% on following a fairly week quarterly report and continuing investor wariness over an SEC investigation of the company’s accounting practices. Nearly 2.2 million shares have traded by mid-day, compared with a daily average of about 320,000.

Unisys shares are down nearly -11% on a weaker-than-expected quarterly report. More than 2.1 million shares have already traded this morning, compared with a 3-month daily average of about 720,000 shares.

Minutes before noon ET, the DJIA is up 1.09% at about 12,771, the Nasdaq is up 1.19% at around 2,847, and the S&P 500 is up 1.09% at about 1,327.

Paul Ausick

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Maintained Neutral but cut target to $190 at Credit Suisse; Maintained Outperform but lowered estimates at Baird; Lowered target to $225 at Jefferies.
Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (NASDAQ: AMCC) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) named as the Value Stock of the Day at Zack.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) named as Bear of the Day with under current price objective target by Zacks.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE: CAT) named as Bull of the Day with way above-consensus price target at Zacks.
Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Seagate Technology plc (NASDAQ: STX) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
SunCoke Energy Inc. (NYSE: SXC) Reinstated as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Websense Inc. (NASDAQ: WBSN) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) Reiterated Outperform and raised target at $42 at Credit Suisse. 

If you enjoyed the top analyst calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO and M&A news, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

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JON C. OGG

Hulu is a relatively small premium content site that is owned by Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Providence Equity Partners, News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) and the NBCUniversal unit of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA). Hulu says it will press into the paid content business as well. Hulu’s CEO, Jason Kilar, said at a recent AllThingsD conference that, “It is important that we deliver great content and stories that aren’t being told right now. And that serves two purposes. One, consumers are asking for it. And second, it does build up healthy differentiation versus other services.” What stories and what differentiation?

The major internet content and traditional VOD services have most of what consumers want. Otherwise, they would have no chance at success in the industry. It is important to have Saving Private Ryan in inventory. It is not important to have a French period piece from the 1930s — particularly if it does not have English subtitles. Kilar knows that. His chances of success are tiny.

No one will entirely elbow aside the cable box on the top of most TVs, whether that box is from a cable company, satellite company or telecom operator. Netflix forced its way into the home through its initial DVD business. No other competitor had that early advantage, least of all Hulu.

Hulu also has to compete with several extremely well-financed businesses that nonetheless are likely to fail because they are late to market. First among these is the largest video site in the world — Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube. Despite its size and the size of Google’s balance sheet, Hollywood studios have been wary of YouTube’s hundreds of millions of amateur clips and its reputation as a site on which premium content is sometimes found without the permission of the owner.

Hulu is among of the last premium video companies to try to bring content to the living room. Even if it was not too late, it is too small and has no competitive advantages.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Amazon Takes a Hit

The debate over whether Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) has made proper decisions about its future, decisions that have taken its margins down, will begin again in earnest now that it has issued its earnings for the past quarter and forecasts for this one. People who believe founder and CEO Jeff Bezos is a genius will support the argument that Amazon must spend all it reasonably can to expand its e-commerce and media businesses. That means high costs of marketing, shipping, and low margins on products, led by its Kindle and Kindle Fire. The market’s immediate reaction to earnings was to drive the stock down 10%. So the consensus reaction to Bezos’s plans is currently negative.

Chinese Manufacturing

China’s PMI for January was 50.5, which indicates modest expansion. This follows several months during which the direction of its manufacturing sector has been unclear. The trouble with the Chinese numbers is either that they are unreliable or China’s factory production has faltered — at least compared to the robust periods of three years ago. What may be more telling than the Chinese statistics is the demand for its exports in many of the troubled EU nations. No amount of stimulus that the People’s Republic can set, or level of demand from emerging markets and the U.S., can offset the EU problem.

Facebook to Raise $5B

IFR reports that the Facebook IPO documents will be released soon. The amount the social network firm plans to raise is $5 billion. Rumors have been that the figure would be closer to $10 billion. It is not clear what the lower amount means. Either Facebook does not need a great deal of capital for expansion, and current shareholders want to keep dilution low, or Facebook’s bankers do not think the market will support a valuation that might be as high as $100 billion — particularly if Facebook’s numbers and forecasts are below expectations.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) says costs may drive it to a loss this quarter. (Reuters)

Sony (NASDAQ: SNE) appoints Kazuo Hirai as CEO. (Reuters)

China’s PMI is better than expected. (Reuters)

Patent plaintiffs file actions against Facebook ahead of its IPO. (Reuters)

Panasonic and Samsung will try to set financial ties to troubled Olympus. (Reuters)

Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and DE Shaw are among Kodak’s largest creditors. (Reuters)

The U.S. to charge some Credit Suisse employees with mortgage bond fraud. (WSJ)

President Obama will try to set plans for millions to refinance mortgages. (WSJ)

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) to buy India entertainment company UTV Software Communications. (WSJ)

Hulu will press its entry into original programs. (WSJ)

Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) says it will not offer certain Amazon.com books. (WSJ)

U.S. refiners and the United Steelworkers come to an agreement just ahead of a strike. (WSJ)

The U.S. deficit will be above $1 trillion again in the next year. (WSJ)

As Greece moves closer to default, Germany presses its case for more control over the small nation’s budget. (WSJ)

The European Central Bank faces huge losses from a Greek default. (WSJ)

Corn and tin prices rise rapidly. (WSJ)

Chrysler may do more to save Fiat than Fiat did for Chrysler. (WSJ)

The stock market has its best January gains in 15 years. (WSJ)

Natural gas futures fall 7.7%, nearly a one-day record. (WSJ)

Officials track more than 90% of the money lost from MF Global customer accounts. (NYT)

A new rare earth plant will open in Malaysia. (NYT)

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation has attached some AMR assets to help employees to get benefits. (NYT)

New jobs data show the great differences among EU economies. (FT)

Greek bondholders may set a deal to get a better return if its economy recovers. (Bloomberg)

China’s home prices fall for the fifth month in January. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre