Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEET) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital.

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JON C. OGG

A Reuters poll shows Japanese manufacturers have prepared for a eurozone break up. (Reuters)

Apache (NYSE: APA) to buy Cordillera Energy. (Reuters)

A National Association for Business Economics industry poll shows few companies plan to add jobs. (Reuters)

Nokia Siemens gets a 1.2 billion euro loan to support its business. (Reuters)

E-book publishers experiment with $0.99 books to draw new customers. (WSJ)

Volkswagen may speed its takeover of Porsche to increase the integration of the two companies. (WSJ)

Oil production in the U.S. rises sharply in the past year. (WSJ)

A sharp increase in car production causes a competition for jobs in the Midwest states. (WSJ)

Talks between bondholders and Greece are still unsettled. (WSJ)

UK wage increases stall. (WSJ)

Target (NYSE: TGT) will fight one of the retail industry’s largest problems: people come to it stores and then buy online from competitors. (WSJ)

Refinery prices and low natural gas will hurt oil company returns. (WSJ)

Moody’s downgrades Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Panasonic (NYSE: PC). (WSJ)

Hyundai expects growth in the troubled EU region. (WSJ)

European Central Bank three-year loans help drop yields on the region’s sovereign paper. (WSJ)

China increases its oil purchases from Iran. (WSJ)

France and Germany would like to relax some bank rules to help the region’s financial troubles. (FT)

Sales of the Nokia (NYSE: NOK) Lumia probably pass one million units. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform with $12 target at Credit Suisse.
Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF) Cut to UNderweight at JPMorgan.
Aurizon Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AZK) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HBAN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (NYSE: PHG) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LTD) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Started as Hold at Argus.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Unilever PLC (NYSE: UL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
WebMD Health Corporation (NASDAQ: WBMD) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
WESCO International (NYSE: WCC) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

The new gathering system will serve the Keathley Canyon area and serve producers Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), and Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP). Keathley Canyon was the site of the first major oil discovery in the US Gulf once drilling was reopened following the Macondo well explosion in April 2010 that killed 11 workers on a rig operated by BP plc (NYSE: BP). Exxon, which made the discovery, has estimated the resource at 700 million barrels.

The joint venture, called the Southeast Keathley Canyon Pipeline Co. LLC (SEKCO), plans to build an 18-inch pipeline to transport 115,000 barrels/day of crude to a floating production platform and connect to Enterprise’s Poseidon pipeline system to move the oil onshore. The southeast portion of Keathley Canyon is estimated to hold about 300 million barrels of reserves.

In related transactions, Genesis is acquiring a 28% stake in the Poseidon pipeline system from Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), as well as a 29% stake in the Odyssey pipeline system which is majority owned and operated by Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS-A) and a 23% stake in the Eugene Island pipeline system owned by a group including Exxon, Shell, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). Genesis is paying about $206 million for these three acquisitions, which includes about $26 million for the value of the crude already in the pipelines. The company used its revolving credit facility to finance the purchases.

The SEKCO pipeline system is expected to be in service by mid-2014.

Paul Ausick

The fortunes of any oil & gas producer depends on the price of the commodity, and crude prices in the US have been rising, while natural gas prices have been no better than flat for the year. And while crude prices could rise to an average of more than $105/barrel in 2012, natural gas prices are not expected to rise much next year as abundant supplies are likely to increase even more.

We’ve looked at several oil & gas companies, including the three US-based supermajors and a number of independents with market caps above $10 billion: Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD); Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY). We’ve looked at the past year’s stock price performance and compared that with median target prices as reported by Thomson Reuters in an effort to find the stocks we think will be top performers in 2012.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a median price target of $92 and a current price of around $84.62, for a potential upside of 8.7%. That’s the lowest potential gain of any of the stocks in this survey, but combined with a share price gain of about 15% in the past 12 months and a dividend yield of 2.3%, Exxon’s upside is stronger than the simple calculation. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $67.03-$88.23, so the stock is trading within about 5% of its 52-week high. Crude oil price hikes provide substantial benefits to Exxon’s shares, and those price hikes could add $10-$20/barrel to the company’s revenues in the coming year.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a median price target of $122.50 and a current price of around $106.76, for a potential upside of 14.7%. Of the three supermajors, Chevron’s potential gain is the largest, it’s share price gain of nearly 16.5% in the past year is the largest, and its dividend yield of 3% is second in among the three giants. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $86.68-$110.01. Chevron has been the strongest bet among the three US supermajors this past year, and there’s little reason to expect that to change in 2012. A new 52-week high is close, and current events in the Middle East could push shares to a new high before the new year.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has a median price target of $82 and a current price around $72.24, for a potential upside of about 13.5%. Conoco trails the other two supermajors in share price gain for the past 12 months, posting a rise of just 6.35%. The company’s dividend yield is highest of the supers, at 3.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.65-$81.80. Conoco just sold assets in the North Sea for $330 million as it continues to try to bring its debt back under control. Of the three supermajors, this is the least likely to achieve its potential upside.

Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC) has a median price target of $77.50 and a current price around $61.55, for a potential upside of 26%. But Range’s share price has jumped more than 36% in the past year, but the company pays a paltry dividend yield of just 0.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $44.20-$77.24. With a market cap of right around $10 billion, Range is often mentioned as a takeover target from one of the supers or another mining company that wants to diversify into energy. Range holds about 800,000 leased acres in the Marcellus shale play, which is located close to the massive northeast US market.

Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) has a median price target of $28 and a current price around $23, for a potential upside of about 22%. The refiner’s share price has gained more than 25% this year, but the company pays no dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $17.43-$29.61. Unlike the other major US refiner, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro has made no major acquisitions recently, apparently satisfied to play the hand it’s got. That’s probably smart, considering Valero shares got whacked in the past 12 months, down more than -9%. But as the Brent/WTI differential closes, no refining stock is a good bet for 2012, regardless of the potential upside calculation.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) has a median price target of $115 and a current price around $75.75, for a potential upside of 31.4%. The company’s shares gained a meager 2.2% in the past 12 months and the dividend yield is just 0.1%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $58.63-$106.07. Like Range Resources, Pioneer carries a market cap of right around $10 billion. Most of the company’s assets are in Texas, and most are oil. Either as a takeover target or as a liquids producer, Pioneer is a solid play.

Anadarko Petroleum Co. (NYSE: APC) has a median target price of $100 and a current price of $75.75, for a potential upside of 32%. The share price gained more than 9% in the past year and the company pays a dividend yield of just 0.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $57.11-$85.50. Until fairly recently, Anadarko’s assets have been exclusively onshore in the US, but its acquisition of Kerr-McGee gave it a position in the Gulf of Mexico and the company has also acquired assets offshore of Africa. The potential upside here, combined with the company’s share price performance last year, make Anadarko a solid prospect for gains in 2012.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) has a median target price of $35.50 and a current price around $22.87, for a potential upside of 55%. Shares have lost more than -11% in the past 12 months and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $22-$35.95. Chesapeake’s shares are near the 52-week low today following a report from Reuters on how the company used shell companies to secure leases to drilling rights in Michigan and potential lawsuits springing from the practice. On the other side, at least one analyst thinks Chesapeake offers a “compelling risk/reward” opportunity. That awe-inspiring upside potential is probably out of reach though. Chesapeake holds a lot of debt, and any hiccup in the financial markets could raise havoc with the company.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has a median price target of $134 and a current price of $88.63, for a potential upside of 51.2%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -25% in the past year and it pays a dividend yield of 0.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $73.04-$134.13. Several directors and company officers have been buying shares in the past month or so. Just under half of the company’s liquids production comes from its US assets, so the rising prices for WTI are positives for Apache. The large potential upside is probably not going to be closed, but the company’s shares could easily improve by 25% in 2012.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has a median price target of $117.50 and a current price around $93.69, for a potential upside of 25.4%. The company’s share price has fallen more than -4% in the past 12 months and it pays a dividend yield of 2%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $66.36-$117.89. Oxy’s assets include liquids-rich fields in southern California, where pricing for crude and liquids is higher than anywhere else in the country. Other assets in Texas and elsewhere onshore in the US will drive revenue and profit at Oxy this year, and the stock’s potential upside is not an impossible goal.

Overall, among these oil & gas stocks, Chevron would be the pick among the supermajors, and either Range Resources or Pioneer among the independents, primarily on the possibility of a takeover. Refiners face a tough 2012 and Conoco’s decision to split off its refining into a separate company won’t help matters.

Paul Ausick

We’ve surveyed eight major oil companies, both integrated and E&P only, to try to find out where value in these stocks might be based on analysts’ target prices and implied upside on the stock. The companies we looked at are Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP), BP plc (NYSE: BP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), and Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR), more commonly known as Petrobras.

All data comes from Yahoo! Finance and MarketWatch, with current prices from about noon today.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has a median target price of $90.00 from 17 brokers. Shares are trading today at $79.31, for an upside potential of $10.69, or 13.5%. Exxon pays a dividend yield of 2.4% and its forward P/E is 9.38. Exxon’s upside is the second-lowest in this group, and is dragged down by the company’s expressed decision to retain its refining operations. Because refining is, at the best of times, cyclical and profitability depends largely on crude oil prices, the current upward movement in WTI pricing will affect the company’s refining margins.

In the third quarter, Exxon’s US refining profits totaled $810 million, up 79% from the third quarter of 2010. Non-US refining profits actually fell by -23% because the WTI/Brent differential did not affect overseas crude pricing.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) has a median target price of $122.00 from 19 brokers. Shares are trading today at $101.88, for a potential upside of $20.12, or 19.8%. Chevron pays a dividend yield of 3.1% and its forward P/E is 7.91. Chevron, like Exxon, has rejected the option of hiving off its refinery operations, and also like Exxon, that decision will affect profits as refinery margins fall. In the third quarter, Chevron’s price differential between WTI and Brent crude averaged $17/barrel. As Brent prices fall due to resumed production from Libya and WTI prices rise, the differential will close further and the $2 billion in profit that Chevron made from its downstream operations will also decline. Fortunately for Chevron, the higher realized prices for its crude will offset a fair portion of that downstream drop-off.

ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP) has a median target price of $80.00 from 17 brokers. Shares are trading today at $70.80, for an implied upside of $9.20, or 13%. Conoco pays a dividend yield of 3.7% and its foward P/E is 8.39. Conoco announced its intention to spin-off its refining operations into a separate company, but it may have waited too long to be able to set a premium price for its refineries. The company’s potential upside is the lowest of this group, and that is likely due to what investors see as a probable delay in the refinery spin-off or a decision by the company to go ahead with the deal at a less-than-desired price.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) has a median target price of $54.12 from 12 brokers. Shares are trading today at $43.23, for an implied upside of $10.96, or 25.4%. The company pays a dividend yield of 3.8%, the highest of this group, and its forward P/E is 6.58, the second-lowest in this group. While BP has managed to boost its share price by more than 60% from its low in June of 2010 following the Macondo well explosion that killed 11 workers and dumped 5 million barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico, investors remain wary of the company’s ability to put the disaster fully behind it. BP is also trying to sell two refineries, not to bolster its reserves, but simply to get rid of them. At the same time, it is upgrading its Indiana refinery to accept more crude from Canada’s oil sands.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has a median target price of $115.00 from 19 brokers. Shares are trading today at $97.20, for an upside potential of $17.80, or 18.3%. The company pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and its forward P/E of 11.72. Because Oxy has no refining operations, it is insulated from the decline in refining margins. The company’s stock was upgraded recently from ‘neutral’ to ‘outperform’ with a target price of $135.00 by Credit Suisse. The company owns high-potential shale oil fields in California and other properties in Texas that will benefit from rising crude prices, without suffering any drag from refining.

Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) has a median target price of $33.00 from 18 brokers. Shares are trading today at $27.14, for an implied gain of $5.86, or 21.6%. The company pays a dividend yield of 2.2% and its forward P/E is 7.99. Marathon successfully spun-off 100% of its refining assets into a separate company, Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), in June this year. Marathon averaged 46,000 barrels/day of production from its Libyan assets in 2010. The company has not indicated when any part of that production will be back on-line, but a resumption should be just around the corner.

Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) has a price target of $134.00 from 23 brokers. Shares are trading today at $100.87, for an upside potential of $33.13, or 32.8%. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.6% and its forward P/E is 8.3. Apache’s target price is a few pennies below its 52-week high, which may signal that the company is fully priced. Apache’s strongest point has been that it is able to sell about 75% of its production at Brent prices. As the price gap between WTI and Brent narrows, that won’t have a lot of impact on the company unless Brent should suddenly fall below WTI. Like Oxy and Marathon, Apache has no refining to concern itself with.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE: PBR) has a median target price of $38.04 from 20 brokers. Shares are trading today at $27.28, for an upside potential of $10.76, or 39.4 %, the highest upside in this group. The company pays a dividend yield of 0.6% and its forward P/E is 6.42, both the lowest in this group. Petrobras is investing nearly $225 billion over the next few years to begin producing some 5 billion barrels of crude from the basins offshore of Brazil. In the third quarter, the company produced about 2.6 million barrels/day and expects to raise that total to 3 million barrels/day by the end of 2012. It will need to continue that level of production growth in order to keep up with the costs it will incur.

Of the eight companies in this group, the favorite probably has to be Apache, which has no refining operations and is able to sell the vast majority of its crude at the highest price available. Oxy is a strong second choice. The major integrated companies will feel the drag from their refineries, and Marathon needs to get its Libyan oil back online. As for Petrobras, it’s really a crapshoot at this point.

Paul Ausick

Unlike the over-supply in other shipping markets, LNG vessels are in short supply and carriers like Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP) and Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG) are reaping the rewards. The global fleet for LNG carriers totals just 364 vessels. Day rates have risen above $100,000 and Golar is thought to be concluding a deal at $120,000. By 2013, the day rate could be as high $140,000.

These are the highest day rates since 2006, and are due to the fact that 90% of the LNG fleet is contracted on long-term deals that leave only a relative handful of vessels available for spot shipments. LNG cargoes headed for Europe have been redirected to Asia, where LNG prices are higher, increasing the amount of time the LNG carriers are hauling a single cargo.

Much of the LNG is coming from Qatar and is going to Japan. Before the earthquake and tsunami this past Spring, Japan consumed about 70 million tons of LNG annually. That number is expected to rise to 85 million tons in 2011 and 90 million tons in 2012. Qatar’s exports are soon expected to reach 120 million metric tons annually.

Until the recent US boom in shale gas extraction, the US was expected to be an importer of LNG and several receiving terminals had been proposed. Now, Cheniere Energy, Inc. (AMEX: LNG) and its subsidiary Cheniere Energy Partners LP (AMEX: CQP) have been approved to build a liquefaction facility at the Sabine Pass LNG receiving terminal, but that project is still a few years away. A proposed receiving terminal in Oregon has also begun the process of getting federal approval to export LNG.

The Kitimat LNG facility in British Columbia is another proposed LNG export terminal owned by Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) with 40% and Encana Corp. (NYSE: ECA) and the Canadian arm of EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), each with 30%. The feedstock will come from Apache and EOG fields in Canada. Initial annual capacity of five million metric tons is due in 2013.

The LNG carrier market could be constrained into 2013. New orders for LNG vessels totaled just 5 in 2010, compared with 45 so far this year. Vessels ordered this year are expected to be delivered in 2014-2015, but all may not be built.

The other impact on LNG carriers could come from new Pacific Rim facilities that will be closer to the Asian markets and lower demand for the long-haul trips from Europe and Africa.

For now, though, the outlook is strong for LNG carriers. Teekay has been only a bit better than flat for the past 12 months, but Golar shares are up more than 150%, though about 20% off of 52-week highs.

Paul Ausick

The acquisition should boost Apache’s position among all US oil and gas companies. The company is currently about the same size as Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and trails only Exxon, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP), and Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) when measured by market cap.

Apache has spent more than $12 billion since April 2010 on acquisitions. The company has acquired the shallow water Gulf of Mexico fields of Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), the deepwater Gulf fields of Mariner Energy, and a big portion of the North American assets of BP plc (NYSE: BP). The company has boosted production from 647,000 barrels/day to 749,000 barrels/day.

Today’s purchase of the Beryl field and related properties adds 68 million barrels of oil equivalent to Apache’s reserves and about 19,000 barrels/day of production plus 58 million cubic feet of daily natural gas production. The acquisition increases the company’s North Sea production by 54% and its North Sea reserves by 44%.

There are two noteworthy aspects of the deal. First, since Apache bought the North Sea’s famous Forties field in 2003, the company has produced more oil from the field than was estimated to be present at the time of acquisition. And the company has booked reserves above that production that are greater than the reserve barrels it purchased at the time. In other words, the company has more than doubled the reserves in the Forties field while nearly doubling production. These guys apparently know what they’re doing.

Second, the 68 million barrels of reserves are premium-priced Brent crude. Brent crude trades today at a premium of about $25/barrel to WTI, making every barrel of Brent worth nearly 30% more than a barrel of WTI. And because WTI is essentially landlocked within US borders and is rarely traded, Brent is replacing WTI as the global benchmark for crude pricing. That virtually guarantees Apache premium pricing on its Brent barrels for a long time to come.

In 2010, the Forties field yielded about 9% of Apache’s world-wide production and about 13% of the company’s world-wide production revenue. In 2011, Apache is selling all its North Sea production under a term contract with a per-barrel premium to the price of Brent. The addition of the Beryl field only improves Apache’s profits.

Apache’s shares are trading up just less than 0.2%, at $94.68 in late morning trading. The stock’s 52-week range is $91.97-$134.13.

Paul Ausick

Alon USA Energy, Inc. (NYSE: ALJ) is the value stock of the day at Zacks.
Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Carbonite, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARB) Started as Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer; Started as Outperform at William Blair; Started as Buy at BofA/ML.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE: DVN) Started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Cut to Market Perform at JMP Securities.
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) Raised to Buy at UBS.
SandRidge Permian Trust (NYSE: PER) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer; Started as Market Weight at Wells Fargo; Started as Outperform at Baird.
SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
SM Energy Co. (NYSE: SM) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Started as Buy at Merriman (Monday night).

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The International Energy Agency and OPEC agree that forecast demand growth in 2011 is 1.2 million barrels/day. The US Energy Information Administration has pegged demand growth in 2011 at 1.4 million barrels/day. The difference is that the EIA estimates US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2011, whereas OPEC believes US GDP will grow by a scant 1.8%. The IEA GDP growth estimate for North America is 2.7%.

The lowered demand estimates should moderate pump prices in the US and the rest of the world, but will certainly hit profits at major oil producers like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP), and BP plc (NYSE: BP). The largest contributor to big profits at these companies has been high prices for crude and for gasoline. They will still earn profits at $80-$85/barrel, just not as much. A drop to $75/barrel would be closer to the bone, and anything below that for an extended period of time could spell trouble.

The integrated oil companies’ refining operations will make up some of the difference, as their input costs will fall with the price of crude. Pure downstream outfits like Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) should also see a rise in profits, but the increase will be more modest, especially if the near $20/barrel differential between WTI and Brent closes.

As for service companies and drillers like Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL), Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE), and others, their prospects are still solid, due in large part to development of shale oil and gas. An oil and gas industry group projects that up to 200,000 new jobs will be created in the oil & gas patch in 2011.

For several years now the industry has been concerned about a burst of petroleum engineers reaching retirement age with no replacements available. The situation has grown even tighter now, as companies like Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) continue to troll for new engineering talent.

Both the IEA and the EIA are looking at the world’s economy through glasses that if not rose-colored are surely tinted by government projections and policy. OPEC’s US GDP growth estimate of 1.8% seems clearly more in-line with recent economic performance.

And cuts to federal and state budgets will soon put more Americans out of work. Anyone who expects reduced spending to put some life back into the US economy has simply not been paying attention or has some other ax to grind.

The main prop to crude prices is demand from China, which is expected to grow to at least 6.5 million barrels/day in 2011. Demand from developed countries is essentially flat to down. The shortfall due to the loss of Libyan oil has been made up, mostly by increased production from OPEC.

The main driver of crude prices is the same as it has always been: growing demand for an ever-shrinking supply. Speculation is not the culprit, nor is OPEC. Weak economic growth slows demand and forces prices down. The impact on the oil & gas industry will be noticeable, but not devastating.

Paul Ausick