Posts for Ticker ‘AQNT’

ValueClick: An Omen for Online Ad Spending? (VCLK)

This morning ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) came out and dropped the bomb on forward guidance.  The immediate guidance isn’t such a bad issue but the forward guidance is.  It lowered revenue guidance by 2% to $163 to $164 million, but cost cuts helped earnings guidance to $0.17 to $0.18 (up $0.02 on both).

The online ad company cut its 2008 guidance from $730 to $745 million down to $655 to $675 million and cut prior EPS range of $0.81 to $0.83 down to a new lower range of $0.69 to $0.71.

There is a much more important issue than this company itself though, and one which could have ramifications if the company is right.  Tom Vadnais, CEO, said, Due to increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, we no longer anticipate the seasonal strength in ad spending we typically see in the second half of the year.”  This concern might be analogous to the tail wagging the dog. 

ValueClick is essentially the last man standing on an independent basis in the online ad impression sector.  Its market cap is also only about $1.1 Billion after a drop of 16% to $11.50 this morning (a new 52-week low).  But this may have ramifications elsewhere.  Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) bought DoubleClick. WPP acquired 24/7 Real Media (formerly TFSM).  Microsoft paid a vast sum for aQuantive (formerly AQNT).  And every other major media and content company has been making their online ad spending acquisition plays.

There are two scenarios here and both are as logical as a coin toss.  Either the slowdown in online ad spending is systematic and is going to slow everywhere.  That would be really bad for the giants who spent billions to buy players in this field.  The second possibility is that customers are opting to just bypass ValueClick since they don’t necessarily need an independent online ad placement firm.  With the dominance of Google and others, it is possible that online advertisers are just going direct to the top 4 or 5 online destinations directly as they all have their own departments for this.

We are now in the midst of a full fledged earnings season with literally dozens and dozens of companies competing for headline attention.  This is one of those situations that may get overlooked, but it will be critical for all online ad players and online media companies who live on online ad payments.  We’ll probably get a better handle on this after the close of today when Google and Microsoft report earnings.

Jon C. Ogg
July 17, 2008

Omniture Finds Two Friends: More Money & Cramer (OMTR, AQNT)

Omniture (OMTR-NASDAQ) was up on its own after expanding a securities offering to 8.5 million shares and pricing at $18.15 per share.  The company sold the shares through Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse as joint book-runners, and JMP Securities, Deutsche Bank, and Montgomery & Co. were co-managers.

This stock was actually higher going into the offering, but they got a new friend today: Jim Cramer.  It doesn’t even really matter what was said in his video after this because he called it the next aQuantive (AQNT).  If that isn’t enough to get a stock going in today’s age then very little else is.

Shares of Omniture (OMTR) are up 6% to $19.25 on 8-times normal volume.  Omniture is an online business optimization company whose platforms include SiteCatalyst and DataWarehouse.

Jon C. Ogg
June 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Yahoo! 2007 Shareholder Meeting: Can Semel Survive? (YHOO, GOOG, MSFT, AQNT)

Today is the highly-awaited Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ) shareholder meeting, and the media focus isn’t on Google (GOOG-NASDAQ) and Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) and the bulk of the online advertising deals that have been made.  The media focus is on Terry Semel being given a one-way ticket for a vacation at the Resort de Guillotine.  We have noted since December that Terry Semel was no longer the right man for the job.  We noted that its Chief Technology Officer leaving was the wrong executive leaving.

Let’s de-personalize this for a moment and reflect on why some CEO’s are great at some times and atrocious at others.  Let’s even forget about stock bonus awards that were already made.  Semel came along in a time of need, back when the company needed a real world CEO that actually sold and packaged things when merely having search and ads wasn’t a solid enough business model.  That was true at the time and they did get a CEO that gave them stability when they needed it.  The problem is that most people are not able to recognize whne their best performance and effort has been maximized, and that’s the case here and now with Yahoo!.

Semel may be a great guy, but his usefulness has come and gone.  So much is riding on Panama at Yahoo!, and frankly the reviews and reception from Wall Street are mixed.  Many are even questioning how much of a real threat it is to Google’s search, particularly since Google acquired DoubleClick and even since Microsoft acquired aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ).

Since December when we went out with a "Semel needs to leave" and our 10 CEO’s that could use at least some change, there has been a steady push from other media and even shareholder groups calling for the same end.  It isn’t that Semel is incompetent or that Semel is a bad guy.  He was the stabilizer in a time of instability, but now Yahoo! needs a homerun hitter.  The song ‘Panama’ was probably the last big hit that anyone can recall for David Lee Roth, and now it seems like a reference for nothing good ahead.  If Semel doesn’t want his own Panama apex and long decline, perhaps he should capitulate and take the obvious hints.  There are plenty of new large movie studios and his career will be far from over if he doesn’t ride this into the ground.

The last rally before the most recent sell-off was based on hopes that a buyout could be in the works, but a digital company with a $36 Billion market cap that has limited growth and has been under attack from a more nimble Google might not be the best buyout target.  There are many other avenues the company can go on, and it’s too bad that the driver of the cab won’t admit he’s lost.

Shares of Yahoo! are trading down more than 0.5% pre-market, although the volume is too light for a real read.  If you wish to listen to the webcast today, it starts at 1:00 PM EST and can be accessed here.

Jon C. Ogg
June 12, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Thinks Navteq Could Get a Bid

Last night on CNBC’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer had an interesting thought regarding merger rumors and speculation.  it was his ‘Speculation Friday" after all.  He surmized that Navteq Corp. (NVT-NYSE) is potentially in-play.  Because of the fact that Navteq is inside the digital mapping systems for Google’s (GOOG-NASDAQ) maps, Cramer thinks that Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) could actually trump Google by acquiring the company. 

This would be an interesting strategy and would create some disarray in the Google Earth enironment.  But the question is how much would it be worth for Microsoft to do this, because the market cap of Navteq is more than $4 Billion already.  This stock closed down 0.6% Friday at $42.57, up from $37.27 on Tuesday.  This wasn’t because of a merger rumor but was because the CEO of Navteq gave positive data presentations at a Lehman conference this week.  This would be an interesting buy, but even after Microsoft spent $6 Billion or more for aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ) it would be a wonder if they just teed up another few billion here just to backdoor google.

Jon C. Ogg
June 2, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Calls For A Yahoo! & eBay Merger

Cramer came out tonight on CNBC’s MAD MONEY proposing that Yahoo! (YHOO) and eBay (EBAY) should get together and merge.  He is calling for this because the growth is slowing in both areas and that would jumpstart it.  Cramer contends that companies with slower growth have to do something to get their sizzle back.  Cramer said that Microsoft (MSFT) was reportedly in talks to buy Yahoo!, but the aQuantive (AQNT) buyout signals it is willing to do deals.  If these companies had better areas to invest in they wouldn’t be propping shares up with buybacks.  This would allow Yahoo!’s massive users to use Skype and PayPal to buy goods.  Cramer thinks this would bring back growth, and would finally get Semel out of Yahoo!

As Cramer is long Yahoo! (YHOO) in his charitable trust and as he’s been touting ideas for something like this, this ‘call to merge’ is hardly a surprise to me or to others.  The market caps are very similar, although eBay is the larger company. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 30, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Crazy Short Sellers in Online Advertisers (May 2007) (VCLK, AQNT, TFSM)

Stock Tickers: VCLK, AQNT, TFSM

We have frequently noted how the short sellers are often motivated by different factors and have a longer-term outlook than Joe Q. Public.  We wanted to look at the few remaining Internet advertisers that hadn’t been acquired, and it’s official: short sellers in these names are either crazy or just stupid.  There were dozens and dozens of reports that the sector was in play after Google gobbled up DoubleClick, so being short those names was just ignorant.  It isn’t like they all went up in shares short, but the degree to which the shorts were still there just seems weird.  Short sellers are a different breed, that’s for sure.  This could have been titled "Online Advertisers: Short Sellers Kicked in the Shorts."

Stock (Ticker)                        MAY       APRIL  CHANGE
aQuantive (AQNT)               9.56M    8.47M    12.9%
24/7 Real Media (TFSM)    6.73M    7.08M    -4.9%
ValueClick (VCLK)              9.66M    9.95M    -2.9%

Jon C. Ogg
May 25, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Cramer Says the Internet Mergers Are Game-Changers

Cramer on today’s STOP TRADING said the Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) deal for aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ) is a game changer.  If they willpay $6 Billion to buy AQNT, then what is coming in the land grab against Google.  Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ) is one that could merge with Microsoft to put Google on the effensive.  He even thinks Yahoo! could do something with eBay (EBAY-NASDAQ).  Cramer says it isn’t doing well on its numbers but it has too much traffic to ignore and called it a buy here.

Cramer also decided to slam the Verizon (VZ-NYSE) upgrade that was so obviously late to the party.

Under Armour (UA-NYSE) reports next week, Cramer thinks it has gotten too cheap and he thinks it is done going down.

After aQuantive, 24/7 Real Media Deserves a Much Higher Price

The 24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) buyout price now looks silly after this premium that Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ) is paying to acQuire aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ).  Lets forget about the percentage premiums and just look at the multiples.  At a $6 Billion payout based on forward revenues and earnings, there is a huge discrepancy between TFSM/AQNT. 

Depending on what service you use for forward estimates you come up with roughly 77-times forward non-GAAP earnings and about 9-times forward revenues.  These numbers would not have been this high if the bidding for aQuantive wasn’t so high, but Microsoft’s price is the rule-setter.

If you apply the same numbers to TFSM it is pretty sick.  On the forward earnings estimate basis for TFSM you can derive in the vicinity of a theoretical $37.50 price.  On a forward revenue basis you could derive something nuts like a $45.80 price.  The truth is that there is debt and intangibles and all sorts of ‘exceptions’ that would skew these numbers and you would have to be a mad man to believe that TFSM would really sell for a premium like that.  But in a bidding war environment where Google paid up for DoubleClick and where Microsoft goes out this far and this high to buy Aquantive means that management agreeing to a $11.75 buyout price is nearly cowardice.

The basic multiple comparisons are just not as fair because the only two companies that were identical in the models were TFSM and DoubleClick, so trying to use an exact comparison would be flawed.  On May 10, we noted that the starting valuations could put TFSM at a $11.81 starting price and a value that at certain extremes could fetch $19.75.  We noted that somewhere in the middle at say $15.00 or higher could be feasible.  So why is TFSM selling so cheaply?

This leaves ValueClick (VCLK) as the last ‘independent’ man standing, and that is up 11% today.

Jon C. Ogg
May 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

aQuantive Massive Buyout Premium (AQNT, MSFT)

Stock Tickers: AQNT, MSFT, GOOG, TFSM, YHOO, VCLK

aQuantive Inc. (AQNT-NASDAQ) just recived a huge premium buyout by Microsoft (MSFT-NASDAQ).  This is one that was a 50/50 chance of happening via deductive reasoning after the Google (GOOG-NASDAQ) and after the WPP Group buyout of 24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) and after the Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ) acquisition of a private Right Media.  So this only leaves ValueClick (VCLK-NASDAQ).

What is surprising is the premium: aQuantive is being acquired for roughly $6 Billion, or $66.50 per share.  This stock has never seen a price like that except back at the recombination price at the start of 2001.  Now if you have been a holder of AQNT you are guaranteed a huge profit. 

In all honesty this deal is not a surprise at all, but the price is very surprising since it is nearly a 90% premium.  Microsoft would have been able to have owned this one cheaper if they would have acted sooner.  Shares of ValueClick (VCLK) are trading up 17% pre-market at just under $33.00 as they are the last man standing independently, and that is above the $31.34 year-high.

Jon C. Ogg
May 18, 2007

24/7 Real Media Buyout: Is $11.75 High Enough?

Stock Tickers: TFSM, GOOG, MSFT, WPPGY, YHOO, AQNT, VCLK, TWX, IACI

24/7 Real Media Inc. (TFSM-NASDAQ) is trading up 3.5% this morning on news that it has agreed to be acquired by WPP Group for $11.75 per share.  The deal is being tallied up as a $649 million buyout net of cash received.  It says it is a 30% premium over the 60 trading average, which is irrelevant if you have been following this online advertising segment since before Google (GOOG) acquired DoubleClick.  Both boards have approved the deal but there are no go-shop or break-up fees that were made public.  The stock has recently traded as high as $13.00 because of rumors of another bidder.

We have covered this one since the stock was far lower.  On May 1, there were reports that Microsoft might pay up for it.  They were also noted in "Who’s next?" on April 13.  On May 10 we looked at what the company could fetch and came up with what would likely be an $11.81 starting price and one that could reach $15.00 or higher under the right circumstances.

The other two online ad firms are trading up this morning: ValueClick (VCLK) is trading up 2.5% at $28.00 and aQuantive (AQNT) is trading up 1.5% at $34.95.

This is one that could conceivable end up trading higher than the $11.75 price if the break-up fees or go-shop penalties aren’t insurmountable.  Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) were supposedly in consideration here and you never know if Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL or IAC/Interactive (IACI) would consider jumping in before letting this one entirely go away.

Jon C. Ogg
May 17, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

What Can 24/7 Real Media Fetch in a Buyout?

24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) is a stock that is sitting in a good position as a takeover candidate or on its own.  We have already reported and shown an idea of what the company could be worth in a post Gooogle-DoubleClick online banner ad world.  There could still be plenty of juice left to this one. 

The company boosted revenue guidance from a $255 to $265 million range to what is now $265 to $275 million.  This is only a 5% boost but could be just the beginning with its new overseas venture in Japan.  The company only maintained pro forma operating earnings of $0.50 to $0.55 for the year, but the valuation may be cheap with a forward P/E ratio of about 22 and as the “Google Checker” for any of the other online ad firms.  The company also said “we are assessing strategic alternatives” and that it hired Lehman Brothers as its financial advisor.

We had reported about the interest that should come into the name.  WPP Group in London may be interested and Microsoft (MSFT) may be interested.   But beyond this, who would really be able to work this?  There are many firms that could play the land grab here, and these are merely the US-traded names:   Microsoft (MSFT) is a natural fit and they could outbid almost anyone; Time Warner (TWX) could expand its already strong ad interest; Comcast (CMCSA) as it moves into more content; Yahoo! (YHOO) could but they may pass; IAC/Interactive (IACI) could step up its efforts here; aQuantive (AQNT) could decide this would broaden their base; and ValueClick (VCLK) could eat a competitor and strengthen its base.

There is also the angle that advertisers themselves could steal an instant presence in the online ad world and diversify from their traditional businesses: WPP Group (WPPGY) has already been fingered as a potential buyer. Other ad agencies could make the play too: Omnicom (OMC), Publicis Groupe SA (PUB), and Interpublic Group (IPG).  You might even be able to make the argument that Lamar Advertising (LAMR) could jump from the billboards straight into the online world in one swoop here.

So what is the company worth?  Talk was originally putting WPP interest at $600 million and then after the DoubleClick-Google tie up word came that Microsoft or others may pay up to $1 Billion.  The company has only $73 million in total liabilities and most of those are just current liabilities, so there would not be the need to alter the equity figures by much. 

TFSM had a market cap of $569 million based on an $11.20 stock price and shares already went up as high as $13.00 on the higher bid interest.  $600 million would only be a 5.4% premium to the $11.20 price, which would only be an $11.81 implied price.  That might have been enough a year ago or more, but that probably wouldn’t cut it today.  But a $1 Billion price tag would imply a 76% premium to today’s price, so that would imply $19.75.  Based on where the stock has been on its own and based on any recent history at all that number is still probably too high.  The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but you can at least now quantify what some of this would be.  $11.81 might be a “starting bid value” and the halfway mark in between would be just north of $15.00.

If a buyer does not emerge and based on the current prices and our past articles, an implied “no takeover play” valuation on this name is probably now closer to $9.50 to $10.00.  The online ad world is just worth more than it was just a short time ago.  If this truly does get gobbled up then $15.00, or $800 million, does seem feasible and seems a level that shareholders might not be able to fight too much.  It is very possible that since it has just hired Lehman that the review would take some time.  It shouldn’t be expected that this happens overnight, and today’s drop to $10.72 is evidence that Wall Street doesn’t think this will happen immediately.

Jon C. Ogg
May 10, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The Week of Buyout Picks (April 9-13, 2007)

Stock Tickers: GOOG, AQNT, VCLK, TFSM, MSFT, YHOO, TWX, SLM, NNI, FMD, MEDI,HAL, WHT, MEH, AAI, COT, IPS, PALM, DELL, NFI, BCE, AA, DOW, WYN, NDAQ,GFI, KR, ABN, BNI, DCX

This week was a huge week for the all of the buyout investors and speculators.  There were more ongoing discussions being reported in the media than you could imagine.  In a world of private equity gone wild, its hard to not be a bit cynical on the raw number of these.  This is also after Google (GOOG) announced it would pay $3.1 Billion to acquire the master online advertising company DoubleClick.

Since the Google buyout of DoubleClick you might as well go ahead and throw these three into the hat: aQuantive (AQNT), ValueClick (VCLK), and 24/7 Real Media (TFSM).  We addressed these back pre-market on April 2 when the DoubleClick buyout was starting to surface.  Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), and even Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL unit may have to all look after these companies now that they let Google takeover DoubleClick.

Sallie Mae (SLM)….media saying it could go to private equity, of course.  This even has Nelnet(NNI) and First Marblehead (FMD) up in hopes that if one student loancompany gets gobbled it means the others could too (or at least maybethe worst could be behind)…. who knows.

MedImmune (MEDI) exploring alternatives…."put itself up for sale."

Halliburton (HAL) for Weatherford (WFT)….WFT up 3% today as a result.

Midwest Air (MEH) snubbing Airtran (AAI) again, Airtran says the bid is high enough.  Do you believe them?

Cott (COT) in talks with private equity firms on a Cadbury Beverage combination…..stock up 28%…."Welcome Back Cot….."

IPSCO (IPS)….up $20 since earlier in the week, company confirmed "talks that could lead to a sale," but not with whom…..

Palm (PALM) re-rumored as potential bait for Dell (DELL), these rumors just won’t die.

Novastar Financial (NFI) exploring options….a Takeunder for subprime slime?

Bell Canada (BCE) now under potential takeouts by the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, so to speak.

Alcoa (AA) survived its earnings after a crummy history…..many think this one still gets gobbled…..

Dow Chemical (DOW) rumors of a private equity buyout just won’t die,even if they deny the rumor and fire 2 executives for "holdingunauthorized talks" with outside parties.

Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) could be the next buyout for its valueaccording to Cramer, as the only Cendant piece that hasn’t made thegrade.

Kroger (KR) denied it is interested in going private…..maybe WallStreet recalls that grocery store margins are low.  The good news isthat you can now get a huge portion of the items you can at WholeFoods, without the "Whole Paycheck" price.

NASDAQ (NDAQ) held talks with the Oslo Stock Exchange.  Supposedly nodeal is imminent, but right now if you are an exchange you arebasically takeover bait (hence, our BAIT SHOP).

ABN AMRO (ABN) still on deck…..who, what, when, where????? Barclays (BCS)?

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) went up on what may have been a fake "buyout rumor or interest" from a Mr. Pastorini…..can you say "Weird?"

Interest in rails after Warren Buffett disclosed stake in BurlingtonNorthern Santa Fe Corp (BNI)….looks like Buffett feels differentlyabout rail companies than airline companies.

Magna International confirmed its role in ongoing Chrysler talks, part of DaimlerChrysler (DCX).

Jon C. Ogg
April 14, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Google Acquires DoubleClick; Who’s Next?

Stock Tickers: GOOG, YHOO, AQNT, VCLK, TFSM, TWX, MSFT

Google did after the close announce it was paying $3.1 Billion to acquire DoubleClick (DCLK).  So they are going to trump Microsft (MSFT-NASDAQ) and Yahoo! (YHOO-NASDAQ).  What this does is give Google a much mnore diversified advertising model, and it should grow their internal agency advertising operations. 

We noted a while back when the DoubleClick deal was first surfacing that this should increase the perceived values in DoubleClick’s competitors.  We even titled this "After DoubleClick; Who Could Be the Next Buyout Target?" and made several refences after.

aQuantive (AQNT-NASDAQ), ValueClick (VCLK-NASDAQ) and 24/7 Real Media (TFSM-NASDAQ) are all competitors.  DoubleClick in the hands of Google would potentially make DoubleClick the most valuable and entrenched company in the online ad space arena, but it would potentially increase the relative value of these others.  This was pre-market on April 2, so here are the price comparisons with the APR 2 being the OPEN price listed by NASDAQ on that day:

VCLK: $2.6 Billion market cap; Online advertising and programs for large advertisers and ad agencies in Media, Affiliate Marketing, Comparison Shopping, and Technology. APR 2 $26.46; today $29.50.

AQNT: $2.2 Billion market cap; Online advertising for large direct advertisers and ad agencies: Digital Marketing Services, Digital Marketing Technologies, and Digital Performance Media. APR 2 $28.08; today $28.52.

TFSM: $408 Million market cap; used to be referred to as “the poor man’s DoubleClick” and was the most direct competitor in the past. Banner and online media ads for advertisers and ad agencies. APR 2 $8.08; today $8.58.

Earlier this week, Jim Cramer even went on and said that AQNT and VCLK have 33% and 31% upside based on a DoubleClick being bought after going private.

Microsoft and Yahoo!, and even Time Warner’s (TWX) AOL, may have just been put in the position that they all "have to" look at these competitors. 

Jon C. Ogg
April 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.