The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 489 points to 12,044.55 (4.23%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 105 points (4.17%) to 2,620.34, and the S&P 500 rose 4.33% or nearly 52 points to 1,246.94.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $46 price target at Argus. Other ratings actions included Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) reiterated as ‘buy’ with a $94 price target at Canaccord Genuity; Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) cut to ‘underperform’ at Wedbush; Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) reiterated as ‘hold’ at Argus; Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; and Calpine Corp. (NYSE: CPN) cut to ‘hold’ at Jefferies. See our story on Transocean’s stock offering and proposed debt offering.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is up 3.3%, at $13.87; The Fresh Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: TFM) is up 5.7%, at $38.73; Jos. A. Banks Clothiers, Inc. (NASDAQ: JOSB) is down -6%, at $48.09; and SeaDrill Ltd. (NYSE: SDRL) is up 6.3%, at $34.82. After markets close today, Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD) will report earnings.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Zoltec Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) is up 41.5%, at $8.11. The advanced materials maker reported better-than-expected earnings after markets closed yesterday.

Advanced Analogics Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AATI) is up 32.5%, at $5.75. The power management chip maker is being acquired by Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) for $258.6 million, or about $6.05/share.

Patriot Coal Corp. (NYSE: PCX) is up 18.7%, at $10.30.  This coal miner, like virtually all its competitors, is down about -40% for the past 12 months. There’s no news to justify today’s price jump, but the company’s thermal coal does sell well in cold weather.

Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AMEX: AVL) is up 20.3%, at $3.26. The rare earths miner made this big move on no news, but competitor Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP) did a deal with two Japanese companies to manufacture very powerful magnets in Japan for use in wind turbines and other high-tech products.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is up 16.6%, at $1.80. The solar PV maker is among several Chinese solar companies moving up today, no doubt as these are considered the most likely to survive a shakeout in the solar manufacturing sector.

Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ: SFLY) is down -12%, at $27.02, after posting a new 52-week low of $26.93 earlier today. The social media company is facing intense competition for its on-line photo products.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events scheduled for tomorrow(all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – New unemployment claims
• 9:45 a.m. – Bloomberg consumer comfort index
• 10:00 a.m – Industrial Supply Management manufacturing index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA natural gas weekly report
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet
• 4:30 p.m. – Money supply report

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Paul Ausick

Tuesday

Zoltek Companies Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) makes the lightweight carbon fiber composites used in a variety of high-tech products including wind turbine blades. The company has posted four straight quarterly EPS losses and this quarter is not expected to reverse that trend. Zoltek is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.02 on revenue of $44.5 million for its third quarter ended in September.

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is expected to ride the wave of better earnings at luxury retailers. The consensus estimate is for EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $802.1 million, compared with EPS of $0.46 on revenue of $681.7 million in the same period a year ago.

Wednesday

Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is a mall-based retailer of teen clothing. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.28 on revenue of $576.4 million. A year ago the company posted EPS of $0.67 on revenue of $602.8 million. The company posted an EPS loss of -$0.02 in its July quarter this year.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is another clothing retailer with offerings aimed at a wider range of ages than is Aeropostale. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.27 on $781 million in revenue. In the same period last year, American Eagle posted EPS of $0.29 on $751.5 million in revenue.

Thursday

Jos. A. Banks Clothiers Inc. (NASDAQ: JOSB) is a men’s clothing store with more than 500 outlets in 42 states. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.51 on $196 million in revenue. A year ago, Banks posted EPS of $0.45 on $173.3 million in revenue.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) makes athletic apparel for men, women, and children and operates about 148 stores in the US, Canada, and Australia. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.25 on $235.9 million in revenue. In the same period last year, the company posted EPS of $0.18 on revenue of $175.8 million.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) offers athletic apparel and other sporting goods to teens and young adults at more than 430 stores in the US and Canada. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.42 on $153.1 million in revenue. Last year the company posted EPS of $0.40 on revenue of $135.9 million.

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) has been integrating its acquisition of the assets of the failed Borders chain and recently introduced a new version of its Nook e-reader to compete with the new Kindles from Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.02 on $1.98 billion in revenue. Last year in the same period the company posted an EPS loss of -$0.13 on revenue of $1.91 billion. B&N has missed EPS estimates for the last four quarters.

Friday

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) operates more than 1,500 closeout stores in the US and Canada. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.09 on $1.13 billion in revenue. A year ago the company posted earnings of $0.23 on $1.06 billion in revenue.

Other Happenings Next Week

On Monday we get the new home sales report from the federal government.

Tuesday sees the release of the latest Case-Schiller housing price index, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index, the State Street Investor Confidence index, and speeches from two Federal Reserve Bank presidents, Janet Yellen and Narayana Kocherlakota.

On Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association reports purchase applications, the Challenger Job-cut report, the ADP employment report, the Chicago purchasing manager’s index (PMI), and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday’s reports include chain store sales, motor vehicle sales, the Industrial Supply Managment (ISM) manufacturing index, and a report on construction spending.

Friday closes out the week with the report from the Census Bureau and the Department of Labor on the employment situation.

Have a great weekend!

Paul Ausick

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is up 13.5% before market open to $16.25, relative to a 52-week range of $9.16 – $27.73. 

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) is down 26% before market open to $7.70, relative to a 52-week range of $7.81 – $43.96.

Medivation, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDVN) is up 116% premarket to $35.80, relative to a 52-week range of $10.96 – $25.50.

PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG) is down 5.5% premarket to $40.00, relative to a 52-week range of $37.57 – $48.63.

Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up more than 10% premarket to $57.51, relative to a 52-week range of $44.62 – $59.94.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is up 5.3% before market open to $30.25, relative to a 52-week range of $21.11 – $36.42. 

44.62 – 59.

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is up 4.6% to $12.69, relative to a 52-week range of $9.16 – $27.73. Jefferies has upgraded the company from “hold” to buy.”

BigBand Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBND) is up 74% premarket to $2.21, relative to a 52-week range of $1.20 – $3.28. The company is being acquired by ARRIS group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARRIS).

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is down more than 2% premarket to $109.17, relative to a 52-week range of $107.31 – $304.79. The company announced yesterday that it was cancelling the plans to spin off its streaming service into the Qwikster brand.

Many investors might have guessed that Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM), and The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) are among the worst performers.  Their performance has been atrocious, but the Finviz screener showed many companies which have performed far worse.

There are many companies under $100 million in value or which are illiquid which have fallen even more.  This group was focused on companies that trade with a market capitalization of more than $100 million and we screened out the companies which are either not liquid of roughly 200,000 shares a day.  We also screened out the Chinese companies and their accounting woes, with one exception.  This list of doozies here also had one critical threshold: the stocks are all down by 75% or more from the start of 2011.

American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC) has become the boulevard of broken dreams for investors.  The trouble goes even beyond alternative energy woes.  It is suing the Chinese customer who refused to pay, but the ongoing issue is that the customer was just too large of ASC’s customer base for it to adequately hedge against. At $5.22, the 52-week trading range is $5.10 to $38.88. That might make some people cry.  Shares are down more than 82% from the start of 2011 and the performance has been only red.  The market cap is still amazingly about $265 million and it usually trades more than 1.2 million shares each day.

Camelot Information Systems Inc. (NYSE: CIS) came public last year in October and investors probably wished they never heard of the enterprise application services and financial industry information technology services player in China.  A slowing bank spending climate hurt there even before Americans had to throw almost anything related to China in “the accounting soup” during this last summer and before.  Camelot trades close to $4.65 and the 52-week trading range is $4.00 to $28.18.  The stock is still worth more than $210 million and the shares are down right at 80% so far in 2011.  Camelot trades close to 800,000 shares a day.

Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is a Bermuda-based shipper that transports crude in very large crude containers and it also transports coal and iron ore in vessels that its owns or leases.  Its business model is such that analysts expect losses in 2011 and in 2012.  It has slashed its dividend and shrunk the operation’s footprint.  Frontline trades at $6.02, its 52-week trading range is $5.72 to $29.47, and its market cap is $468 million.  Frontline also trades more than 2 million shares a day on average.  Unfortunately, this one is down about 76% year to date.

Motricity, Inc. (NASDAQ: MOTR) has technically fallen out of the $100 million market capitalization rate, but only since yesterday.  What is so sad here is that this was a mid-2010 IPO that rallied handily toward the end of 2010 when shares briefly hit $30.00.  That was then for the mobile ad solutions provider aimed at allowing ad agencies to better focus on the mobile market.   You hate to see a stock come public, ramp higher, and then fall to $2.00 the following year.  The company is expected to lose money this year and next year.  At $2.12, the 52-week trading range is $1.85 to $31.95, and its market cap is $96 million after a 4% drop on Monday.  The stock’s average volume is about 2 million shares per day.  This one leads the pack of post-IPO losers as it is down 89% year-to-date in 2011.

SemiLEDs Corporation (NASDAQ: LEDS) designs and manufactures light emitting diodes chips and components used in many lighting settings.  Unfortunately, the promise of growth in lighting efficiency peaked and 2011 has so far been a very rough year for this company and its peers as even the industry leaders have had many warnings on their revenues and earnings.  At $4.51, the 52-week trading range is $4.16 to $32.12.  It also trades about 200,000 shares per day and the market cap is roughly $123 million.  You could joke that SemiLEDS went dark in 2011 because the stock is down 84% year-to-date.

MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) should be called “Black Magic” rather than “Magic” these days. With new mortgage applications so low and with the private mortgage insurance sales being so soft in home mortgage lending, what is there to love here?  The question is whether or not it can get to profitability before the business erodes out from under it.  That this used to be a $70 stock no longer matters as no one expects that to ever be the case again and finding any great prospects in this housing market is more than difficult.  Shares are now down to $2.36 after another 5% drop on Monday, but the 52-week trading range is $1.59 to $11.79.  MGIC still trades more than 7 million shares a day on average and the market capitalization is almost $475 million.  Shares are down more than 76% year-to-date.

Before you get too far down on stocks over poor performance, we have noted time after time that many value fund managers review the list of 52-week lows as one of the first tasks in their value screens.  Not all losing stocks die, but finding value in highly troubled businesses is often more than challenging.  As you have guessed, none of these stocks fit in as value stocks as they have underlying trouble in their businesses.  Sometimes “cheap stocks” are not really cheap.

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What these companies can do to turn around differs greatly.  Each apparel retailer is a unique situation.  They are also effectively new companies as far as the public is concerned about three times a year on average.

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is just stuck in the mud, or maybe in quicksand.  The former flying-high retailer has lost its cool and trends keep going south here.  We thought this was looking a bit busted months ago when it was still well above $20 and now shares have been flirting with $11.00.  What this teen apparel retailer can do to get back the cool is hard to predict.  Maybe they need the next teen star endorsement.  This is the strongest of our weakest retail/apparel names today.  At $11.30 the market cap is over $900 million still even with a 52-week range of $10.34 to $27.73.  The company is also expected to keep making money, but with no growth and with no outside enthusiasm.  This one has also not loaded itself with long-term debt, but that is about the only good thing to say right now.

American Apparel, Inc. (AMEX: APP) is in limbo.  The company that was supposed to be ‘the next Gap’ just imploded, management scandal, financial woes, and other irregularities just have this one down and out.  Shares have stayed under $1.00 and it is not even a situation here where a stock market recovery is assured to even bring up any support.  Can Ron Burkle fix this situation?  At $0.91, the market cap is $94 million or so and the 52-week range is $0.66 to $1.90.  American Apparel has almost zero following by Wall Street, but let’s just say that finances have not been pleasant here and the moves by outside holders do not imply that shareholders will be treated well.

Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) has almost been forgotten about and we won’t publish our nickname for this one.  Being the Chico’s-wannabe has done little to drive the company.  SHares began their slide before the recession and the long-term chart just looks like a staircase straight down.  At $1.02, the market cap is $93.5 million and the 52-week range is $0.82 to $5.89.  This one was supposed to be an e-commerce and online winner, but it turns out that this was not the case.  The company is also expected to lose money in 2011 and in 2012.

Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) has lost much of its cool and even the Lucky brand has not come to its rescue as many hoped and its flagship brands have not really helped turn the ship either.  AT $4.31, the 52-week range is $4.02 to $7.90.  Liz got crushed going into the recession and this was above $40 in 2007.  Shares are higher than in early 2009, but to say this has foundered would be an understatement.  The market cap is over $400 million and the company has too much debt and not enough liquidity for safety.  Analysts are expecting -$0.55 EPS in 2011 and are looking for $0.20 EPS in 2012.

Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) has been a shell of its former glory since the peak of the recession.  The performance today after a disappointing back to school season and after having missed prior targets in weeks and months earlier are becoming par for the course.  At $1.47 now, shares hit a 2-year low of $1.26 today.  The balance sheet is going to be a concern if Pac-Sun keeps missing the mark here.  The market cap is just under $100 million here and we are not endorsing anything positive to say at this point with another 30%+ drop on Wednesday.

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is in such a strange place that you have to scratch your head.  The upscale womens apparel retailer has faltered at each time it has tried to turn around.  Shares are now close to where they were at the peak selling of the late 2008 to early 2009 recession.  So much for that would be merger helping it out.  It seems nothing is working here.  Even at $2.78 it has a market cap of almost $200 million and the 52-week range is $2.33 to $13.43.  The one thing that may help is that expectations are so low and there still seems to be some hope for a turnaround next year that gets it closer to break-even again.  Liquidity remains a concern for us longer-term.

What makes apparel/retail so interesting is that the consumer can turn on a company extremely fast.  Every one of these companies was formerly something much greater.  But when those same-store sales turn south as customers go look elsewhere for the next cool, look out.

The good news is that the extreme cyclical and seasonal trends can also work for any of these companies.  One great ad campaign and one great product cycle, and any apparel retailer can be cool all over again.

Unfortunately, these companies and stocks are all in the dog house.  Some more than others.  These all share one thing in common: it will take far more than a stock market recovery to turn these companies around and to save their shareholders.

JON C. OGG

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) fell 2.3% today and the stock is down another 8.9% at $11.38 in the after-hours.  This troubled apparel player managed to beat earnings but guided lower for the coming quarter.  The turnaround just won’t turn.

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) is regaining half of its losses in the after-hours.  Shares fell 8% today and the stock is back up 4% at $26.51 this evening.  Keep in mind that today was a 52-week low.  The company beat estimates and did not guide lower for the coming quarter.

Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) may have fallen almost 7% today but the stock is up almost 3% at $12.42 in the after hours session.  Liberty Media is not going to acquire the company but it is making a strategic investment in the company.

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) is the gift that keeps on taking and it now trades at less than six-times forward earnings.  The stock fell 6% to $29.51 after the re-activated trading after earnings before the close today and the shares have fallen even worse.  H-P shares are down 9% at $26.82 in the after-hours and the old 52-week low was $28.64.

LDK Solar Co. Inc. (NYSE: LDK) is one that if it was in Mexico the stock brokers would be telling their sales managers that clients are pulling “El D.K.” to get out of the trade.  The solar player lowered guidance for the year for revenues, shipments, and margins.  Shares fell 3.5% today and the stock is down 19% at $5.30 in the after-hours.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) was down almost 7% ahead of earnings but the mobile chip designer managed to beat estimates.  Shares were up 13% at $13.70 in the after-hours session.

Silicon Graphics International Corp. (NASDAQ: SGI) beat earnings and grew again.  Shares fell 7.3% today but the stock was up 10.2% at $13.15 on last look in the after-hours session.

JON C. OGG

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) Raised to Hold at Jefferies.
Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
CIGNA Corporation (NYSE: CI) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Dish Network Corp. (NASDAQ: DISH) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NASDAQ: DWA) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
GLG Life Tech Corporation (NASDAQ: GLGL) maintained Buy but cut estimates and target to $7.50 at Canaccord Genuity.
Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MMI) Cut to Sell at Argus; Cut to Underperform at Raymond James; Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Raised to Market Perform at BMO.
Research-in-Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Sell at Societe Generale.
Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD) Raised to Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Sky-mobi Limited (NASDAQ: MOBI) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) Raised to Buy at Collins Stewart.
Transocean Ltd. (RIG : NYSE) maintained HOLD but raised target to $69 at Canaccord Genuity.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) Raised to Market Perform at FBR Capital.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Raised to Outperform at FBR Capital.
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) Maintained Strong Buy as Value at Zacks.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) added to Focus List at Citigroup.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: CY) Reiterated Strong Buy as Aggressive Growth at Zacks.
Kinetic Concepts, Inc. (NYSE: KCI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (NYSE: KKD) Maintained Strong Buy as Momentum & Value at Zacks.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Cut to Underperform at FBR Capital.
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) Reiterated Buy but raised target to $60 at Argus.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Prudential Financial. Inc. (NYSE: PRU) Added to Focus List at Credit Suisse.
RadioShack Corporation (NYSE: RSH) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ: SMTC) Reiterated Buy but raised target to $33 at Gleacher & Co.
Sequans Communications SA (NYSE: SQNS) Started as Outperform at Baird; Started as Buy at Needham; Started as Buy at UBS.
Universal Tech Institute (NYSE: UTI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE: WEN) Reiterated Sell at Argus.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Maintained Buy with $19 target at BofA/ML.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

The sharp rise in commodities prices coincided with the rise in the euro for the last half of 2010 and the first four months of 2011, but what now appears to be a near-certain restructuring/default of Greek sovereign debt is chilling the appetite for risk.

But Europe isn’t the only issue. China’s battle against inflation is being waged with higher interest rates on bank loans, which in turn appears to be slowing down the country’s growth. Chinese energy import growth could be slowing down and there is some belief that some of the construction that is going on in China is really just make-work projects to keep workers employed building housing that no one either can afford or wants to buy — the Chinese version of Potemkin villages.

The odd thing about flight to the dollar is that the US economy itself remains pretty weak. If this economy is the best that the world has to offer, things might be worse than everyone fears.

Take lumber prices for example. A contract for a thousand board feet can be purchased today for less than $220, compared with more than $320 in early March. Timber companies like Weyerhaeuser Corp. (NYSE: WY), Plum Creek Timber Co., Inc. (NYSE: PCL), and Louisiana Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) have been counting on demand from China to make up for slack demand in the US, but the cavalry has not arrived yet. Worse, the cavalry may never arrive, at least in the hoped-for strength due to the slower-growing Chinese economy.

US homebuilders have done nothing to support lumber prices either, as they all continue to struggle with a collapse in new housing starts. And in a reverse situation, rising cotton prices have hurt share prices at retailers like Gap Stores Inc. (NYSE: GPS) and Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO). That maybe about to turn around though.

Cotton prices have been falling since hitting a peak near $2.10/pound in early March. Currently sitting at about $1.55/pound, falling cotton prices may help retailers in the second half of the year, but inventories of higher-priced goods remain high and a continuing drop in cotton prices is not a sure thing. The risk to retailers remains high.

Cotton growers appear to be expecting prices to remain high and are planting more acres in cotton. In one district in California’s central valley, as much as 90,000 more acres will be planted this year, although not all in cotton. There will also be more wheat, another crop that remains near 12-month highs.

Growers are betting that cotton prices stay high, even though they plan to plant more. Retailers are hoping that cotton prices fall as growers plant more. While not exactly a zero-sum game, an outcome that supports both growers and retailers could be pretty hard to come by.

Finally today, gold and silver prices have moved up only marginally, with gold trading at about $1,514/ounce in the early afternoon, and silver at $34.88/ounce. The stronger dollar is also dampening enthusiasm for the precious metals. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is up about 0.22%, to $147.71, in a 52-week range of $113.08-$153.61, and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is down about -0.3%, at $34.08, in a 52-week range of $16.94-$48.35.

The mining ETFs are faring a bit worse, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) down more than -1% and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) off more than -3%. GDX is trading at $55.16, in a 52-week range of $45.88-$64.62. GDXJ is trading at $35.03, in a 52-week range of $25.10-$44.86. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is down about -2.5%, to $23.56, in a range of $12.90-$31.34.

Paul Ausick