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More Big Drug & Biotech Mergers Likely (SNY, AMGN, BIIB, GENZ, BSX, JNJ, HGSI, DNDN, AUXL, VRTX, AMLN, LLY, WCRX, CBST)

Administrator — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 18:24:09 +0000

Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY) was a bit of a stalking horse news item on a week that many investors and traders started taking off for a long weekend. The company has tried to telegraph the possibility of making several U.S. acquisitions. To make matters worse, or perhaps just more interesting, the company said that one or two of those deals could be worth at least $15 billion. Some stocks with the market caps of $5 to $15 billion rallied, but many names in the go-to arena are still very much considered down and out stocks. If this sounds like a double-take from Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), it is close to the truth. Amgen said in the middle of June that it is aggressively looking for acquisition targets on an international diversification basis.

Some names pondered for potential deals or that could also be “partnering” deals are as follows: Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI), Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX), Amilyn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY), Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX), Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST), and even the crazy Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX).

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) once put itself up for sale, but nothing happened. Carl Icahn said it was a dud of an effort. For a larger firm that is willing to look past the PML issues of TYSABRI as a treatment for MS, Biogen is the king of MS drugs. The shares are seeing some profit taking with a drop of 1.4% to $48.71 and the 52-week range is $41.75 to $60.28. As far as the market cap, that is $13 billion today.

Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ) is now interesting with a $13.6 billion market cap after a 3.5% slide today to $50.95 and a 52-week range of $45.39 to $60.15. The company’s great growth model was sharply interrupted after its recent continued manufacturing woes. Its Fabry drug now has been allowed to get even more competition due in part to those manufacturing woes. Still, buying Genzyme would be a coup for a large drug company wanting a growth franchise. The risk is that Genzyme might not be able to sell even if it wanted to… it was an $80 stock in 2008, and anything south of $60 still punishes most share buyers who have held since 2005.

Two out of the ordinary names which could have been bought for a song in the past that would require huge premiums today are Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) and Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN). Both are possibilities, but both have risks associated with being an acquirer at this stage. Human Genome has a $4.1+ billion market cap, but its prized BENLYSTA under FDA review for systemic lupus is in partnership with GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK). That means that buying Human Genome is effectively buying only part of that drug’s revenue stream after (and if) it is approved. As per Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN), we have two serious issues here. The first is that last week’s Medicare review is likely a price shake-down, but its compromised stock chart for investors does not offer any real indication that a deal is even possible here. The $3.77 billion market cap here also matters not for Dendreon… shareholders would not likely approve a buyout at anything under $40.00 per share (or maybe much more).

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) were noted in May as potential takeout candidates with Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI).

Another name which has been constantly thrown around as a buyout target in biotech is Amilyn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN). This has BYETTA as a Type II diabetes standout, but it is also in partnership with Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY). The $2.6 billion market cap with shares at $18.02 also compares to a 52-week range of $11.01 to $24.21. Amylin also spent much of 2006 and 2007 being north of a $40.00 stock. In short, there are hurdles here.

One almost unknown name to many investors in drug and biotech is Warner Chilcott plc (NASDAQ: WCRX). It has drugs in women’s healthcare, dermatology, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal and more. After the P&G deal last year, this one has a $5.65 billion market cap with a $22.40 price and versus a 52-week range of $12.60 to $29.24. Whether this company would even be for sale after it made the P&G drug unit purchase is also a huge hurdle for this as a candidate. Still, it is one of the more attractive drug companies out there and it still has somewhat of a muted analyst following.

Another go-to name we have always thought could be acquired is Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST) for its Cubicin and infection drugs. With hospital infections from Staphylococcus aureus and MRSA being almost out of control, this one seems on the surface that it could be a target in a drug and biotech land-grab. This was one of our value stock picks at BioHealthInvestor.com earlier this year.

One other name which was thrown out by Seeking Alpha, with a rather interesting diversification twist and one we would probably on the surface not consider, is Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX). This would be diversifying for sure, and it would make the company look more and more like a Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) than like an international drug giant. The $6.10 price tag for a $9.25 billion market cap compares to a 52-week range of $5.41 to $11.77. Forget about this being able to happen here anywhere close to the current price. The company’s shares have been hammered and punished after the Guidant buyout turned into a back-breaker and after waves and waves of product issues. This was a $30 and $40 stock from 2003 to 2005 and many of its holders have stuck by this one even if they have averaged down their price.

Sanofi may do a deal. It may do more than one deal. Amgen may do a deal as well. Which company gets bought, if any, depends upon more than enough variables to make this anything more than a guessing man’s game at this point. As with all “speculative merger reports,” these should be considered nothing more or less than a rumor until more clarity comes into play.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Biotech, Drug companies, Editor's Picks, Medical, Mergers and Buy Outs, Rumors Tagged: AMGN, AMLN, AUXL, BIIB, BSX, CBST, DNDN, GENZ, HGSI, JNJ, LLY, SNY, VRTX, WCRX

Today’s Best Market Rumors (3/11/2010)

247wallst — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 13:48:13 +0000

Updated throughout the day.

Citigroup (C) may earn $20 billion in 2012 (FT)

Macquarie Group, Australia’s largest investment bank, is on the hunt for more U.S. assets. (Bloomberg)

Regulators have told Bank of America (BAC) management that the financial firm must become “much smaller” (Fox Business).

Apple (AAPL) is still making changes to the iPad ahead of its April 3 launch. (Forbes)

Biotechs Dendreon (DNDN), Allos Therapeutics (ALTH), Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) and Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) are probable takeover targets (Barron’s)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Filed under: Rumors Tagged: AAPL, ALTH, ALXN, AUXL, BAC, C, DNDN

Top Day Trader Alerts (APKT, ANX, ALVR, AUXL, CTRP, SOLR, HDIX, DDSS, MYGN, NETL, NWS, VRSN, WU)

247wallst — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:56:19 +0000

These are this morning’s top day trader and active trader alerts with a brief explanation of the news behind the moves:

Acme Packet, Inc. (NASDAQ: APKT) up 14% at $12.21 on 28,000 shares after earnings.

Adventrx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX: ANX) up 4% at $0.33 on 1.2 million shares after appointing Carl Icahn to its Board of Directors.

Alvarion Ltd. (NASDAQ: ALVR) down 6.5% at $4.00 on 16,000 shares after earnings.

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL) is up 9% at $30.61 on 250,000 shares after the FDA approved hand drug Xiaflex for a hand treatment of Dupuytren’s Contracture.

Ctrip.com International Ltd. (NASDAQ: CTRP) down 8.5% at $30.40 on 18,200 shares after earnings.

GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOLR) up 10.5% at $6.63 on 30,000 shares after beating earnings.

Home Diagnostics, Inc. (NASDAQ: HDIX) up almost 90% at $11.45 on 1.3 million shares on the buyout.

Labopharm Inc. (NASDAQ: DDSS) up 14.9% at $3.00 after it received FDA approval for OLEPTRO to treat major depressive disorders.

Myriad Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ: MYGN) up 6.96% at $25.65 on 24,000 shares after earnings.

NetLogic Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: NETL) up 10.3% at $47.80 on 82,000 shares after beating earnings offering Q1 guidance.

News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS) up 4.8% at $15.76 on about 14,000 shares after beating earnings.

VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) -6.9% at $21.79 on 80,000 shares after missing earnings expectations and a downgrade.

Western Union Co. (NYSE: WU) down 7.9% at $17.35 on 149,000 shares after earnings guidance disappointment.

Price snapshots at 8:45 AM EST.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear about top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs and secondary offerings, ongoing day trader and options trader alerts, stock and market rumors, Buffett and guru investor news, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 3, 2010

Filed under: Earnings, Pre-Market Activity, Trading Alert Tagged: ALVR, ANX, APKT, AUXL, CTRP, DDSS, HDIX, MYGN, NETL, NWS, SOLR, VRSN, WU

Auxilium Scores on Pfizer Pact (AUXL, PFE)

247wallst — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:31:24 +0000

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL) is responding well in pre-market trading after the company signed an overseas commercialization agreement with Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE: PFE). The pact covers Auxilium’s Xiaflex, a treatment for hand and urological disorders related to hardening collagen.

The terms of the deal appear to call for an upfront payment of $75million. The company is also eligible to receive milestone payments ofup to $410 million depending upon goals and targets reached.

Auxilium is set to receive increasing tiered royalty payments onPfizer’s Xiaflex sales. This could reach up to 25% since Auxilium willmake the drug. Pfizer also expects to file for approval in the U.S.in 2009 and to file for approval in the E.U. in 2010.

As of yesterday’s close, Auxilium’s market cap was $967 million basedupon a closing bell price of $22.89. Its 52-week trading range is$15.44 to $42.75, and shares are trading up 15% at $26.50 in pre-markettrading.

Jon C. Ogg
December 18, 2008

Posted in Biotech, Drug companies Tagged: AUXL, PFE

Early Bird Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (ALB, AUXL, BIIB, CBEY, HAIN, HWD, LVS, SYMC, TEVA, TWTC, WBSN, WFMI)

247wallst — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:23:19 +0000

These are some of the early bird analyst upgrades and positive calls we are seeing this Thursday morning with more than two hours to the open:

Auxilium Pharma (AUXL) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Biogen-Idec (BIIB) Started as Buy at Stanford Group.
CBeyond (CBEY) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Hain Celestial (HAIN) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Harry Winston Diamond (HWD) Raised to Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Raised to Hold at KeyBanc.
Symantec (SYMC) Started as Buy at B of A.
Teva Pharma (TEVA) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
TW Telecom (TWTC) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Websense (WBSN) Started as Buy at B of A.
Whole Foods (WFMI) Started as Buy at Jefferies.

Jon C. Ogg
September 11, 2008

The Week’s Top Biotech Movers For Next Week (TRCA, ACOR, ISPH, ONCY, PCYC, SQNM, IDEV, LGND, AUXL)

247wallst — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 06:01:00 +0000

Out of the daily movers this last week, many of the top winners and losers were from news in many of the smaller biotech stocks. We prepared a list of the winners and sinners from our daily review at BioHealthInvestor.com and gave a summary regarding the moves on each. It is becoming more obvious that many small and mid-sized biotechs are going to be gobbled up by European or Asian biotech and pharma companies seeking the dollar-discount right now.

For starters, we ran a summary of the key moving pieces out of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). No review would be complete without it. Stocks covered: (AVAN, PFE, CELG, IMCL, DNA)

ACQUISITION NEWS
Tercica, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRCA) bites the dust as its own company the latest small cap biotech received a huge premium acquisition from a foreign buyer, with a 104% premium. FULL DETAILS

MAJOR WINNERS
Acorda Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOR) had a great week after it announced positive data from a second Phase III study of its Fampridine-SR for patients’ walking abilities in MS patients. FULL DETAILS

Inspire Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ISPH) surged after reaching its primary endpoint in Phase III trial of Denufosol for Cystic Fibrosis. FULL DETAILS

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: ONCY) gained after the Canadian biotech’s positive Phase II studies of intravenous REOLYSIN® in patients with sarcomas metastatic to the lung. FULL DETAILS

Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) gained after its Phase 1/2 trial of motexafin gadolinium plus antibody targeted radiation therapy showed a high complete response rate in patients with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. FULL DETAILS

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) surged after it announced its progress with a non-invasive technology that detects Down syndrome. FULL DETAILS

MAJOR LOSERS
Indevus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDEV) tanked after an FDA request should cause a two-year delay in approving NEBIDO. FULL DETAILS

MIXED REVIEW
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: LGND) is one we gave a full pro and con review covering the upside of the stock and the negative side of the stock. FULL DETAILS

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL) was a strange stock this week. The company reported great news but shares slid before the market figured out it had misinterpreted news in the company. INITIAL DETAILS

Jon C. Ogg
June 7, 2008

George Soros Top Equity Holdings (AAPL, AUXL, BFLY, CBI, CMG, CRUS, COV, MAPP, POT, SVNT)

247wallst — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 09:17:55 +0000

This week we got to see critical SEC filings showing holdings of many key and influential investors. Included in these filings were billionaire George Soros, a billionaire whom is loved by some and much less ‘well thought of’ by others over his currency trading history of over his MoveOn.org attempts. Either way, investors still watch Soros. These are the holdings of Soros Fund Management LLC as of December 31, 2007. These were listed as the top holdings and are not at all his entire positions. Soros Fund Management LLC was listed as having some $2.269 Billion in the total filing, and these positions here only equate to $360+ million, so there are many more positions. As with all of these holdings, these positions may have changed or been eliminated as of the dates noted. Here is a summary of his larger positions with a dollar amount provided by Soros as filer and a share count:

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) $32,000,000; 161,550 shares
Auxilium Pharma (NASDAQ: AUXL) $36,473,000; 1,216,180 shares
Bluefly Inc. (NASDAQ: BFLY) $36,451,000; 48,601,156 shares… an old favorite of his…
Chicago Bridge & Iron Co. (NYSE: CBI) $29,743,000; 492,100 shares
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) $32,404,000; 220,332 shares
Cirrus Logic Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS) $24,376,000; 4,616,666 shares
Covidien, Ltd. (NYSE: COV) $32,194,000; 726,900 shares
MAP Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MAPP) $71,374,000; 4,076,169
Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) $37,933,000; 263,500 shares
Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) $25,002,000; 1,088,461 shares

As Soros himself says …."Contrary to the tenets of market fundamentalism, financial markets do not tend towards equilibrium; they are crisis prone."

Other billionaires and their holdings filed this week:
Bill Gates
Carl Icahn
Warren Buffett

Jon C. Ogg
February 16, 2008