At issue may be a stock market stabilization, or perhaps it is a stabilization aimed solely at the commodities and those companies which profit from either the rise of commodity prices or the rise of the demand for those commodities. It was just yesterday evening that Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter was talking up gold miners as his method of choice to play the current bounce in gold.

To show just how much implied upside there is we found some large cap gold stocks that have upside of about 100% and many of the big players have implied upside of well over 50%.  The key ETFs for these miners show just how widespread the damage was during the last sell-off.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) trades at $43.35 against a 52-week trading range of $39.08 to $66.98 and that is down about 35% as a group from the highs.  The Global X Silver Miners ETF (AMEX: SIL) trades at $18.00 against a 52-week range of $16.54 to $29.05 and that is down almost 38% from its high in the last year.

We included the implied dividend yields but due to foreign issues and ADRs causing currency translations and due to some payouts not being quarter like U.S. companies do, we would urge you to only consider the dividend as a footnote and something you should be verifying on your own.  Besides that, who buys gold (and silver) miners because of their dividend yields only?

We have evaluated the following large-cap gold stocks: Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX); Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG); Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM); AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU); Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC); Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM); Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI); Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY); IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG); Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY); Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO); and Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD). We have covered also two of the larger silver players of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS).

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) traded at $37.60 and has a market value of $37.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $59.10 and the 52-week range is $34.82 to $55.95.  Barrick has a dividend yield of 2.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target: 57% but we would note that the target is above the 52-week high.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) traded at $34.90 with a market value of $28.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.42 and the 52-week trading range is $32.16 to $56.31.  Goldcorp’s most recent yield was listed as 1.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 73% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 11 points to 13,268.65 (-0.08%), the NASDAQ rose more than 9 points (0.31%) to 3,059.85, and the S&P 500 fell -0.25% or more than 3 points to 1,402.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘neutral’ at R.W. Baird; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML and started as ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) raised to ‘buy’ at Auriga; STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs and raised to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; and Assurant Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is down -2.8% at $39.30 (more coverage here); Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) is down -4.4% at $28.85; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is down -0.8% at $452.14; Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) is down -4.3% at $92.29; Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is down -2.6% at $14.36; Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is down -1.6% at $37.30; The Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) is down -3.3% at $67.74; Rowan Companies Inc. (NYSE: RDC) is up 1.3% at $34.97; R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (NASDAQ: RRD) is down -7% at $11.79; Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) is down -1.2% at $3.41; and IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) is up 3.3% at $50.34 after posting a new 52-week high of $52.77 earlier today.

Tomorrow we get earnings from First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) among many others.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Chesapeake Energy is down -13.5% at $16.95 after posting a new 52-week low of $15.86 earlier today. The natural gas producer reported weak results and more troubles for CEO Aubrey McClendon. More coverage here.

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is down -1% at $30.29. The cable company reported good earnings this morning. More coverage here.

Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) is down -18.8% at $1.51. An analyst has said that the company insolvent. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are speaking at a conference. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:30 a.m. – Challenger job cut report
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 8:30 a.m. – Productivity and costs report
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

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Paul Ausick

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), which reported quarterly results this morning, is just the latest casualty in the gold mining business. Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) missed estimates by a modest amount, and Newmont Mining Co. (NYSE: NEM) reported a modest beat for the quarter. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) beat EPS estimates by nearly 12%, the best showing of the bunch so far. Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) missed estimates yesterday, and Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) won’t report first quarter results until next week.

Demand for bullion, from central banks and investment instruments like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (AMEX: GLD) are driving the price of gold, but not driving it to great new highs. Equity markets have been strong in the first quarter of the year, and investors have been chasing returns rather than seeking the safe haven of gold.

For the miners themselves, costs are the constraint. Barrick, for example, realized an average gold price of $1,691/ounce in the first quarter, up from $1,389/ounce in the same period a year ago, an increase of more than 21%. Cash costs rose from $437/ounce a year ago to $545/ounce in the first quarter, more than 24%. Total production costs rose from $595 to $737 per ounce, a jump of nearly 24%.

Barrick reported total cash margin on gold of $1,146/ounce, while Goldcorp reported total cash margin of $1,456/ounce. Labor and regulatory issues contribute to higher costs, as do less productive ores. Then there are the rising costs of new exploration and development.

If investors continue to flock to equity markets, only central banks and jewelry makers are left to push demand for gold. That’s not a good position for the miners to be in.

Barrick’s announced a 33% increase in its quarterly dividend this morning, to $0.20/share. Goldcorp raised its quarterly dividend to $0.35/share earlier. Neither move will boost the dividend yield above 2% though — and even if it did, it probably wouldn’t be enough to lift the share prices much.

Barrick stock is down about -1.6% in the pre-market, at $39.80 in a 52-week range of $38.46-$55.95.

Paul Ausick

The other side of the mining coin is a bit more positive though. Gold miners Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), and Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) have seen their share price rises outstrip bullion price rises for the first time in at least a year. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) has lost about -5% of its value in the last month, while the gold miners are all up more than 1% and Newmont is up nearly 8%. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is up about 1% in the past month, but the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is down close to -5%.

In silver, the story more closely follows the copper downturn. Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) is up about 1% in the last month, while the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) is down about -9% and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) is off nearly -5%.

Copper prices have been trending downward more strongly for about the past six weeks. Since posting a high above $4.60/pound in February, copper now fetches about $3.55/pound. Weaker economic forecasts for the developed countries have caused some of the decline, but that has been more gradual. The 600-pound gorilla is China, where Rio’s CEO said that there is evidence that the country is de-stocking as the Chinese government tightens lending in an effort to cool inflation. The side-effect of that tightening is that growth is also slowed, reducing demand for copper and iron ore.

China’s de-stocking has been developing gradually over the past several months, but Albanese’s admission is the first statement from a major player in the mining sector that the sharp upturn in commodity prices has now turned south. The question, of course, is when it will turn back north again.

Commodity prices on everything from food to oil have been falling as demand expectations are adjusted to account for nearly universal slow growth. The key for copper and iron ore producers is China. Rio’s CEO made a special note of saying that the company’s largest Chinese customers “are not showing any sign of slowdown.” But, remember, he also said that there is evidence of de-stocking. Which is it?

The signals all point to a Chinese slowdown in both manufacturing and construction. But the copper and iron ore miners are hopeful that the low price for copper will spur a new round of buying. This could be a case of finding what you’re looking for in the tea leaves.

Copper is trading down almost -6% today, and gold is off more than -2%, at around $1,765 about an hour and a half before markets open this morning. Rio’s pre-market price is now $47.96, about -6.5% lower than the new 52-week low the stock posted yesterday. BHP is also below its 52-week low, at $68.56 in the pre-market, down about -4.75% from yesterday’s close. Vale is down about -3.5%, at $24.41, just pennies above its 52-week low of $24.08. And Freeport-McMoran is down more than -4% from yesterday’s close, at $34.10, well below the new 52-week low of $35.56 that the stock posted yesterday. Southern Copper is down about -1.5% in the pre-market, at $27.50, just pennies above its new 52-week low set yesterday.

Gold miners are moving down this morning’s pre-market as well, probably following the downward move in gold. Newmont is off about -2.5%, at $66.00, in a 52-week range of $50.05-$71.25. Barrick is off nearly -3%, at $51.75, in a 52-week range of $42.50-$55.95. Yamana is off nearly -3.75%, at $15.79, in a 52-week range of $10.41-$17.47. And it’s interesting that these gold miners’ shares traded quite near 52-week highs yesterday.

Paul Ausick

The rally in gold has really started to pull up the rest of the gold sector since the middle of last week.  To show this, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) tracks the largest gold miners and it came within about 1% of 52-week highs today.  Shares closed Monday up almost 4% at $63.70 and the 52-week trading range is $49.57 to $64.62.  The high on the day was $64.05.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) is based in Vancouver, Canada and it acquires, explores, develops and operates mines and gold operations throughout Canada, United States, Mexico, Central America, and South America. The stock closed up 4.8% at $54.14 against a 52-week trading range of $39.04 to 56.20.  That is less than 4% from a 52-week high for the $43.7 billion gold giant.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is a $31 billion Colorado-based producer with operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico.  The stock closed up 4.8% at $54.14 against a 52-week trading range of $50.05 to $65.50.  That is right at 4% under a 52-week high and this one was helped by a Citigroup upgrade this morning.

Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is a $12 billion Toronto, Canada-based producer and explorer throughout many properties in Central and South America.  The stock closed up 3.7% at $16.09, and the stock hit a new 52-week high of $16.18 today.  Yamana’s all-time high was close to $20.00 back in early 2008.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is a $4 billion Colorado-based acquirer of gold mining and production royalties and shares hit a new 52-week high of $73.78 today.  The close was up about 4% at $73.00 for the day after hitting a 52-week high of $73.78. That was also an all-time high.

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) hit a new high, as did gold of course, today at $184.82.  At last look, gold was trading up $45.30 in New York at $1,897.50 per ounce.

The run higher in gold each day is beginning to feel more and more like the crude oil rally from 2007 into 2008.  That is a market where the base just keeps rising and rising for virtually the same news each day.  The difference here is that gold does not run economies in the same manner as oil.  At least it does not as long as the gold-barter system doesn’t return.

JON C. OGG

In a story a couple of weeks ago, we included a chart of how far off 52-week highs Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN), Golden Star Resources, Ltd. (AMEX: GSS), Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (AMEX: NAK), and US Gold Corp. (NYSE: UXG) had fallen.  We also recently looked at larger miners like Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), and Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY) that were doing much better overall.

It seems that the stock market just wants to treat most gold stocks like regular stocks as many are just nowhere near highs like the shiny yellow stuff.  Here’s a chart of where these companies’ share prices stand as of mid-morning today:

Buenaventura has made up about 8% of its share price in the last two weeks, going from down -34.51% to down -26.59%. Golden Star has moved from down -59.90% to down -48.92%. Northern Dynasty has picked up a little as well, from down -53.91% to down -51.52%. US Gold has moved from down -37.39% to down -31.41%.

Except for Northern Dynasty, which is really a long-term play, the others have equaled or surpassed the rise in gold prices since the beginning of the month.

Among the larger companies, the widest differential a week ago was Barrick, down about -16%. Today, Barrick is down about -12% from 52-week highs. Yamana is almost even. Goldcorp evacuated employees and closed one of its Canadian mines because of nearby forest fires last Thursday and there is no word yet when the mine will reopen.

Because the big miners were closer to 52-week highs, their differentials closed less. Still, closing about a quarter of the gap in a week is an impressive performance.

The gap between current share prices and 52-week highs for the junior miners still has a long way to go before it is closed. But at least one of the larger miners could close the gap in another week if gold prices continue their upward march. And the others are within striking range as well.

Buenaventura shares are up more than 4%, to $41.99; Golden Star shares are up more than 3%, to $3.07; Northern Dynasty shares are up about 1%, to $10.55, and US Gold shares are up about 1.5%, to $6.77.

Newmont shares are up more than 2.5%, to $58.89; Barrick shares are up about 1.4%, to $48.99; Goldcorp shares are up about 1.5%, to $54.97; and Yamana shares are up more than 1.5%, to $13.32.

Paul Ausick

Both the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) are within striking distance of 12-month highs. The gold mining ETFs, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) have also come back a bit, though for the year-to-date both are off roughly -10%. Miners Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY), and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) are all up about 1% today, though Goldcorp is the only miner showing a gain (about 10%) for the year-to-date.

The inability of the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund to solve the debt problems in Greece has led investors to worry about other Eurozone debtors. Italy is the latest country to be scrutinized and found to be on less firm ground than once thought.

While the jump in gold prices is not usually a good sign for the US dollar, and, at this time, not an especially good sign for the euro, it does bode well for gold miners which have not shared in the run-up of gold prices. Having broken through the $1,500/ounce level again, the wariness about European debt could keep the price there long enough to establish a new floor.

If that happens, then demand for gold will rise again from central banks and bullion buyers. There are also limits to what the gold miners can do to meet higher demand. Production growth is limited by the price of gold — lower prices mean less investment by miners in increased production. Of course as the price rises this limitation disappears, but then gold miners face rising production costs for labor and equipment.

Demand from India and China for gold to make jewelry and other items is expected to continue growing beyond its current level of about 60% of total production. Furthermore, China’s central bank holds less than 2% of its reserves in gold. The global central bank average is about 11%. If the People’s Bank of China decides to beef up its gold holdings, miners will see an immediate rise in gold prices and a demand for even more.

With the exception of Goldcorp, the other miners we’ve mentioned here have a forward P/E ratio of in the neighborhood of 10. Yamana’s price/book ratio is just 1.29, and the others are right around 2.

We looked at some smaller mining companies about a week ago and found very little uncovered value to recommend there.  That does not look to be the case with these bigger miners. And while these large miners are also trading below 52-week highers, the differentials range from -16% to -6%, a far cry from the junior miner differentials of about -60% to -35%.

Paul Ausick

We decided to screen the gold universe to find out which companies pay dividends and then which ones pay right “about” 1.0% and higher.  There are very few, but the search is as follows: Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM); Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI); Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY); Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD); and The Gabelli Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE: GGN).

Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) has one of the better cost structures out there and its jump in the 2010 payout to $0.15 from $0.10 per quarter has made a difference.  Its dividend had been at $0.10 since 2004.  The current dividend at $54.85 is roughly 1.1% and the 52-week trading range is $48.20 to $65.50.  Thomson Reuters has estimates for this Colorado-based operator at $5.07 EPS for 2011, so any gain to earnings would lend more support for future dividend hikes if it wanted to stand out from the crowd.

Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI) is based in South Africa and it pays dividends semi-annually rather than quarterly to its ADR holders.  The financial reporting services count the yield above 1% but it is generally not a steady dividend and it has fluctuations to it.  Due to fluctuations and currency risks, we are skipping this as a “reliable 1% dividend” gold stock.

Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is a Canadian-based gold producer with a $0.03 per quarter dividend. A potential problem we see is that this dividend was raised twice in 2010.  This new $0.12 annualized payout comes to 0.95% in a current yield and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.96 EPS for 2011.  If any earnings hit comes from its operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico or Colombia, then this near-1% yield may suffer.  At $12.70, its 52-week trading range is $9.16 to $13.13.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) just declared its second $0.11 quarterly dividend this morning and the $0.48 annual rate generates a yield of 0.97% with a $49.15 share price.  Its 52-week trading range is $42.15 to $55.22 and Thomson Reuters has annual June-2011 estimates of $1.29 EPS.  This Colorado-based company is a royalty play rather than a mining play and it owns many royalty interests in the U.S., South America, Australia, Russia, and elsewhere.

The Gabelli Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE: GGN) is a very different beast in the world of gold with a very high dividend.  It is a closed-end fund.  So far it has been able to maintain a $0.14 monthly payout to holders and that comes to an 8.9% yield to holders based upon an $18.80 price.  Keep in mind that it is not 100% gold, and its strategy to generate income is enhanced by writing covered calls.  The 52-week trading range is $14.86 to $19.77.  This is not a perfect gold play, but with a yield like this it may get a pass compared to others.

As you can tell, getting to even a 1% yield is a challenge in most gold mining stocks.  The underlying value here generally revolves around the price of gold.  Live by the golden sword and die by the golden sword.

JON C. OGG

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) are up about 35% from their lows over the last year, but the leveraged nature of gold mining returns at higher prices has led Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) to be up more than 50% from yearly lows and helped Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) rise above 90% from its lows earlier in the year.  We are tracking some underperformance from the likes of Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD), Gammon Gold, Inc. (NYSE: GRS), Rubicon Minerals Corporation (AMEX: RBY), Northgate Minerals Corp. (AMEX: NXG), Exeter Resource Corporation (AMEX: XRA) and DRDGOLD Ltd. (NASDAQ: DROOY).

Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is one of the largest gold producers but it is an underperformer.  At $11.82 its shares are up about 28% from yearly lows and still down 18% from its highs.  With an $8.7 billion market cap, a September disclosure showed that the Canada-based Latin American mine operator will spend $650 million in project expansion from into early 2013 to boost production by more than 50% during high gold prices.  Analysts have an average target of about $14.30 per Thomson Reuters.

Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) is back above $19.00 but is still lagging gold and up only 28% from its yearly lows and still is down almost 15% from its highs.  The $13 billion market cap is also a larger player with a lagging share price.  The stock was punished when it acquired Red Back Mining, but now production is expected to grow from 2.6 to 2.7 million gold equivalent ounces in 2010 to 4.5 to 4.9 million gold equivalent ounces in 2015 as a result.  Thomson Reuters lists an average analyst price target of $22.29.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) has not sold off from highs so much but its performance has been like gold.  The gold royalty trust is still close to $53.00, and that translates to 28% from its lows and down less than 6% from its yearly highs.  Maybe it is dilution from offerings in the past or maybe it is a perceived future earnings quality that worries investors.  Our take is that it has just underperformed and its $2.8 billion market cap and only about 20 employees on last look might make investors consider it more of a fund than a hands-on operator.  While both concerns are true, Royal Gold often has just as much leverage and upside over successful mining ventures.  This may boil down to nothing more than that it has just not rallied as much as peers as analysts on average have an average price target of $61.00.

Gammon Gold, Inc. (NYSE: GRS) is just under $7.00 with a market cap of just under $1 billion.  is trading up about 36% from its lows, but it is down nearly in half from its highs and that is a significant drop compared to almost all peers.  Analysts have an average target of $8.18 for the stock.  The most recent earnings may still have an overhang from a new credit facility despite its recent drill target updates.  The Canadian company operates mostly in Mexico.

Rubicon Minerals Corporation (AMEX: RBY) has a market cap of just under $900 million.  At $4.11 and is up 33% from its lows of the year, but the stock is still down over 21% from highs.  The junior miner has made several production updates in recent weeks.

Northgate Minerals Corp. (AMEX: NXG) is just under $3.00 per share, but it only up 28% from its lows and is still down about 18% from its highs.  After a big pop on Monday, its market cap is closer to $900 million.

Exeter Resource Corporation (AMEX: XRA) is also low-priced at $6.22, but the stock is up only about 18% from yearly lows and is down almost 34% from yearly highs.  The company is valued around $470 million and it had a $50 million capital raise in Canada in October.

DRDGOLD Ltd. (NASDAQ: DROOY) remains another gold laggard and at $4.97, its shares are up 26% from yearly lows but down about 37% from highs.  Its $190 million market cap makes it a smaller concern based in South Africa.  It is thin volume and has very little analyst presence for U.S. investors.  South African gold production drops in reports from earlier in the summer, as well as a June coverage initiation by Morgan Stanley at “overweight” followed by a September downgrade to “equal-weight” only added to the overhang.

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JON C. OGG

Our screen of our 40+ gold issues in our US-listed gold stocks universe brought up Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), Gammon Gold, Inc. (NYSE: GRS), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG), Jaguar Mining Inc. (NYSE: JAG), Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD), and Yamana Gold, Inc. (NYSE: AUY).  This is stating the obvious, but investors who prefer not to take on individual company risk can also look at Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and then the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ).

Our cut-off in the screening process was those which have markets caps of close to $500 million and higher, which are actively traded, and preferably which have 5 or more analysts that cover the shares.  There are many caveats to consider above and beyond regular stock picking targets when it comes to gold.  Most are foreign or are making their money from foreign operations, there are labor issues and safety issues that can come up, geopolitics is mining risk because companies generally have to work in many hostile or unfriendly local environments.  There is also an ongoing currency risk due to international operations, although gold is at least generally translated in dollars.

The greatest risk is also the easiest to guess and the hardest to pick: the price of gold today versus a year and two years out.  If gold rises to $2,000 per ounce as Jim Rogers suggests, then it probably won’t matter about stock picking skills for undervalued or underperforming names.  Conversely, if gold ends up being a huge asset bubble and rapidly falls to $1,000.00 per ounce then the effort of stock picking here is unlikely to make a difference as well.  Rising tides lift all ships, receding tides beach all ships.

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) is the biggest by market cap in our universe and it seems odd that the biggest is also still at a discount when the gold market is still on so much fire for investors.  At $47.32, its 52-week trading range is $33.65 to $48.02.  With a $46.6 billion market cap, this Canadian giant is listed as having an average price target of $55.13.  The implied upside here is about 16% and we might have left this off, except that this would imply a whopping additional $7.5+ billion in market cap.

Gammon Gold, Inc. (NYSE: GRS) has also been in trouble, partly over a mine strike and shares are trading at $6.99 versus a 52-week trading range of $5.09 to $12.63.  The consensus target is $8.34 on the stock, although that used to be higher.  The market cap here is $967 million and 7 analysts have price targets.  The implied percentage gain here is more than 19% if the target objective is hit.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) is the giant and at $44.09 it has a $32+ billion market cap.  Its 52-week trading range is also $32.84 to $47.41.  The Canadian-based international gold miner and producer has an average analyst price target of $52.32 from more than 15 analysts, but it is worth noting that there are some old leftover targets that have not updated (one is listed as being as low as $25.00).  The median target is $54.14, but the implied upside in the shares to $52.32 leaves more than 18% upside to the mean target (and 22% to the median target).