Posts for Ticker ‘AVR’

This Week’s Biggest ‘GOING CONCERN’ Stocks (AVR, BBI, CROX, EBHI, MGM)

Will a 'going concern' note burn your money?

Will a 'going concern' note burn your money?

We are still in the midst of “annual report season” as companies have been submitting their 10-K filings with the SEC. Or in some cases delaying those filings.  There is one theme that has been much stronger during this recession than during any recent years, and that is the dreaded “GOING CONCERN” notice from auditors in the amount of companies which are well known.  And this year’s round of GOING CONCERN notes has a host of names that were formally great stocks.

A going concern is the ability of a company to continue to operate as things are now and not go out of business or have to liquidate its assets.  The out is of course that the company must be able to raise enough capital or exit certain operations to stay operational.   Here are some of the big names with the notes that have come out this week:
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Posted on: March 20, 2009 – 7:46 am in Accounting, Annual Report, Corporate Governance, , , , ,

Top Analyst Downgrades (AEG, ASTI, AVR, NU, RDS-A)

These are the top analyst downgrades and negative research calls we have seen on Wall Street this Wednesday morning:

  • Aegon (AEG) Cut to Sell at UBS.
  • Ascent Solar (ASTI) Cut to Sell at Cantor Fitzgerald.
  • Aventine Renewable (AVR) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Northeast Utilities (NU) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 18, 2009 – 7:45 am in Analyst Calls, , , , ,

ADM Pursuing Brazilian Ethanol? (ADM)

burning-money-pic25A Brazilian newspaper reports this morning that Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) may purchase the Brazilian ethanol group Unialco, together with a mill belonging to Da Mata. According to the news report, a Unialco shareholder stated that ADM has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Brazilian company but there has been no comment from ADM.
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Posted on: March 17, 2009 – 11:03 am in Agriculture, Alternative Energy, Green Biz, ,

Dreaded ‘Going Concern’ Notes Head To Alternative Energy (AVR, BCON, EPG, VRNM)

burning-money-pic22If there is one phrase that a company does not want to see in its annual report, it is “GOING CONCERN.”  This hinges on a company’s ability to operate financially as a viable business.  March is the month where we see many “going concern” notes from auditors, but what makes this interesting is that we are seeing this phrase applied to alternative energy companies.  They are supposed to be the thing of the future.
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Posted on: March 17, 2009 – 8:02 am in Accounting, Alternative Energy, Annual Report, Green Biz, , , ,

Ethanol News From All Over (PEIX, AVR, JAVA)

Pacific_ethanol_logoThe news on the ethanol front this morning is, shall we say, mixed. First, Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) announced yesterday that it would increase its non-cash impairment charge for the suspended construction of its plant in California’s Imperial Valley. The company took a third-quarter charge of $26.6 million, but will issue updated financials upping the charge by $14.3 million less estimated future undiscounted cash flows. The effect, according to the company, will be an increase in future non-cash gains "to the extent the company is discharged from its construction-related liabilities." Shares are up nearly 2%, to $0.7127, on the news.

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Posted on: November 18, 2008 – 10:41 am in Alternative Energy, Oil & Gas, , ,

Pacific Ethanol Follows the Fold (PEIX, VSE, AVR)

Pacific_ethanol_logoPacific Ethanol (NASDAQ:PEIX) reported third quarter numbers this morning and any resemblance to VeraSun and Aventine (NYSE:AVR) is purely familial. Pacific had revenue of $184 million, compared with analysts’ estimates of $219 million, and an EPS loss of $0.98, compared with estimates of $0.16. It’s hard to imagine how it could have been worse.

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Posted on: November 10, 2008 – 10:41 am in Alternative Energy, Earnings, Oil & Gas, , ,

ADM Shows Issues in Corn vs. Crude (ADM, VSE, APC, HOC, PEIX, AVR)

Adm_logoThis morning’s earnings report from Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) offers proof that if a company is going to be in the ethanol business, it had better have a fallback position.  ADM blew past analysts’ estimates of $0.69 per share and $15.98 billion in revenue, hitting EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $21.16 billion. Both figures are more than double those for the same period last year.

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Posted on: November 4, 2008 – 10:36 am in Agriculture, Alternative Energy, Earnings, Trading Alert, , , , , ,

The Burning Man Visits Ethanol (PEIX, AVR, VSE)

BurningmoneyEthanol stocks have been getting pounded since their IPOs and the sector has lost its luster.  Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ:PEIX) was the exception for a while as it has Bill Gates as an investor ahead of the great ethanol boom.  But share prices for Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (NYSE:AVR) and VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE:VSE) have fallen so far from their IPO prices that if you looked at a chart without a time period attached you might assume you were looking at any dot-com flame-out from 2000 to 2002. The bloom was off the rose from the beginning.

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Posted on: October 31, 2008 – 9:21 am in Alternative Energy, , ,

VeraSun Proves It: Size Matters (VSE, PEIX, AVR)

Verasun_logoVeraSun Energy (NYSE:VSE) reported second quarter 2008 earnings before the market opened today. The company’s revenues soared by 499% to $1.015 billion, compared with $170 million for the same period in 2007. Net earnings also increased to $24 million (EPS of $0.15) from $15 million a year ago. Analysts estimated earnings of $0.02 EPS on revenues of $924 million.

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Posted on: August 12, 2008 – 8:28 am in Alternative Energy, Earnings, , ,

Aventine Renewable Braces For Earnings (AVR)

Aventine_logo_2Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc (NYSE: AVR) is set to report earnings after today’s close.  First Call has estimates pegged at $0.13 EPS on $611.6 million in revenues.  If it offers guidance, estimates are $0.04 EPS on $718.4 million in revenues for next quarter and $0.38 EPS on $2.58 Billion in revenues for all of 2008.  One interesting note is that despite all of the problems that (potentially) face ethanol analysts are looking for growth in 2009 to $0.47 EPS on $3.83 Billion in revenues.

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Posted on: July 31, 2008 – 12:12 pm in Alternative Energy, Earnings,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (JOBS, AUO, AVR, CRDN, CLX, DKS, GR, MPEL, PLXS, VSE)

These are not all of the downgrades or negative calls we have seen, but these are some calls moving shares this Monday morning:

  • 51jobs (JOBS) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • AU Optronics (AUO) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
  • Aventine Renewable (AVR) Cut to Underweight at Lehman.
  • Ceradyne (CRDN) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
  • Clorox (CLX) Cut to Sell at Goldman Sachs.
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
  • Goodrich (GR) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  • Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Plexus (PLXS) Cut to Neutral  at Baird.
  • VeraSun Energy (VSE) Cut to Underweight at Lehman.

Jon C. Ogg
July 28, 2007

Posted on: July 28, 2008 – 6:24 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Upgrades (AVR, BLL, CE, ETR, HCP, HR, MRK, PTNR, PTEN, UAUA, VSE)

These are not all of the upgrades or positive analyst calls seen this morning but these are some of the top calls seen this Friday morning:

  • Aventine Renewable (NYSE: AVR) Raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  • Ball Corp (NYSE: BLL) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Celanese (NYSE: CE) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Entergy (NYSE: ETR) Raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
  • HCP (NYSE: HCP) Raised To Buy From Neutral By Goldman Sachs.
  • Healthcare Realty Trust (NYSE: HR) Started as Outperform at Wachovia.
  • Merck (NYSE: MRK) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
  • Partner Communications (NASDAQ: PTNR) Started as Outperform at RBC Capital.
  • Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • UAL (NASDAQ: UAUA) Raised to Overweight from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) Raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
July 18, 2008

Posted on: July 18, 2008 – 6:48 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Goldman Sachs Pans Ethanol (AVR, PEIX, VSE)

In coverage this morning, Goldman Sachs has come out and reiterated the firm’s Cautious analyst coverage view for the corn-based ethanol producers.  Specifically, the firm has reiterated its "SELL" ratings on:

  • Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR),
  • Pacific Ethanol NASDAQ: PEIX),
  • and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE).

The firm notes that corn markets are already short of supply already tight and that spot prices are now much higher because of the Midwest flooding.  It also noted that the next big ramp-up in ethanol capacity will keep pressure on ethanol equities.

As part of this call, Goldman Sachs made wider loss projections for PEIX in 2008 and 2009 and now sees losses rather than gains in VSE as well.  The interesting part of the call besides the reiterated Sell rating is that Goldman Sachs actually now sees a gain in AVR and less of an earnings drop-off in 2009 as a result of likely decelerated plant expansion plans.

Jon C. Ogg
June 27, 2008

Posted on: June 27, 2008 – 6:27 am in Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, , ,

A Requiem For Ethanol (ADM)(AVR)(VSE)

Very few people drive down the miles-long highways and dirt roads in the middle of the country to see combines cut grain and fertilizer trucks spread chemicals. The picture is not monochromatic, at least not up close.

The expense of commercial fertilizers is so high that growing pastures for feed cattle is no longer viable. Processed human waste in pellet form is one of the few remaining methods for improving field production for crops which do not bring high prices. An entire segment of the agricultural industry is being forced to it knees.

At the same moment, farmers of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans cannot plant enough crops to keep up with demand. The price of fertilizer matters much less to them.

New data from The U.S. Agriculture Department show a drop in total acres devoted to corn added to demand for ethanol production will keep prices for the commodity high through 2009. Corn now has to compete with other crops for yield-per-acre.

According to The Wall Street Journal "the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to use a record four billion bushels of corn, or one-third of the harvest that U.S. farmers are expected to collect this autumn." The federal government has provided a number of incentives to keep the ethanol industry in business. The desire to replace oil demand is a powerful, but perhaps lost cause. At. least for ethanol.

Wall St. is already creating the beginning of the end for ethanol stocks. Shares in Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) are down to $4 from a 52-week high of nearly $20. Verasun (VSE) is off to $6 from a 52-week high of over $18  Of course, larger companies like ADM (ADM) have a small part of their business devoted to ethanol production, so small that the impact to the value their shares has been largely insulated.

As the choice with commodities like corn moves to one of food versus fuel and commodities prices versus the price of gasoline, ethanol companies are bound to lose.

Every once in awhile a promising industry grows up and then disappears, both in the matter of a few short years. The ethanol business is one of them

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: May 11, 2008 – 6:47 pm in Oil & Gas, , ,

Oppenheimer’s Lack of Enthusiasm for Ethanol (AVR, PEIX, VSE)

Oppenheimer has initiated coverage of the down and out US-ethanol sector, and the group was given a lackluster "Perform" rating.

"Perform" ratings have been assigned to Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR), Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX), and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE).

With most of these stocks down by two-thirds or more from their 52-week highs, this won’t help a beleaguered sector.  If you watch SEC filings, you will have probably seen that Bill Gates’ Cascade fund has been selling more and more of those Pacific Ethanol positions (although he took most funds out long ago).

With the exception of the farmers and businesses that this is helping out, it becomes very difficult to find people who still believe the US-based ethanol program does any good other than helping boost the cost of agriculture. 

As we have maintained: "If Iowa wasn’t the first state on the presidential election circus, ethanol would be handled far differently."

Jon C. Ogg
April 25, 2008

Posted on: April 25, 2008 – 6:39 am in Alternative Energy, Analyst Calls, , ,

52-Week Low Club (AIR, AVR, LNG, CLX, CTAS, DELL, XXIA, LNET, MNST, PNCL, SSCC)

These are far from all of the lows, but these are many highlighted stocks that traders will care about.  The prices for today are based on the last hour of trading and prior ranges rather than the closing prices for this Friday.

AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) hit a new low today on no direct news from a 52-week range of $22.06 to $39.42.  Shares were down over 7% late in the day at $20.91.  Hmm.. products, services, and maintenance to the airlines.  Go figure.

Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc (NYSE: AVR) down to a new low despite an upgrade by Broadpoint Capital. Ethanol stocks have dipped this month after a report that corn-supplies will be tight this year. Hit a new low of $4.22 late in the day from a 52-week range of $4.39 to $20.85.

Cheniere Energy Inc. (AMEX: LNG) down today on a downgrade by Lehman Brothers yesterday, despite announcements that its LNG terminal in Louisiana will begin to receive shipments on August 12. Shares down over $2.00 to new low of $16.17 off a 52-week range of $18.40 to $43.50.  This huge drop almost seems counterintuitive with sub-projects coming online and with energy prices in the stratosphere, but that downgrade from Lehman yesterday is ruling the roost.

Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) down to lowest points since 2004. Thursday, a Bernstein analyst estimated that third-quarter earnings could be lower than previously expected. Shares hit as low as $55.16 earlier today on a 52-week range of $55.37 to $69.36.  Maybe the public realized how bad bleach is for the water supply.

Cintas Corp. (NASDAQ: CTAS) dropped to a new low after a downgrade by Lehman Brothers. Shares hit a new low of $27.35 before recovering late in the day on a 52-week range of $27.41 to $41.04.  Uniform sales… what gets cut as employees get fired and as businesses trim expenses? Oh yeah, uniforms.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) fell along with the market today with the other computer companies. They just happened to hit a new low. They dropped to $18.44 on a 52-week range of $18.53 to $ 30.77.  The good news is that late in the day shares were back above the prior low.  The bad news is that nothing is going its direction.

Ixia (NASDAQ: XXIA) taking a hit from downgrades by JMP Securities and Ferris Baker Watts. They also cut their own guidance for first quarter estimates. It hit a new low of $6.30 off a 52-week range of $6.51 to $10.70.

LodgeNet Interactive Corporation (NASDAQ: LNET) down to a new low of $5.70 today. Apparently good hospitality isn’t enough keep the shareholders comfortable. The 52-week range is $5.90 to $38.11.  As people cut back, maybe those in-hotel movies are easier to cut spending on.

Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNST) hit a new low today with a 52-week range of $23.00 to $50.28. It shouldn’t be out of a job anytime soon but if it is, it will know where to look.  Shares down almost 4% at $22.20 late in the day.

Pinnacle Airlines Corp. (NASDAQ: PNCL) taking a hit in the wake of Frontier Airlines bankruptcy scare. Hit a new low of $8.22 on a 52-week range of $8.43 to $20.34.  Stock edged back above that $8.50 level in last 20 minutes today.

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (NASDAQ: SSCC) dipped to a new low off a 52-week range of $6.65 to $14.08.  Shares were at $6.35 in the last 20 minutes today, down almost 8%.  paperboard and packaging… what gets cut when stuff stops selling stores?  Oh yeah, the packaging.

Jon C. Ogg
April 11, 2008

Posted on: April 11, 2008 – 2:55 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club (BID)(AVR)(MNKD)(GRMN)(SSCC)

Sotheby’s Holdings (BID) Market is turning against companies with rick customers are they become poor. Fallst to $24.37 from 52-week high of $61.40.

Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) Crop prices go up, ethanol stocks down. Sells off to $4.55 from 52-week high of $20.85.

Mannkind Corp (MNKD) Inhaled insulin products run into FDA approval trouble. Shares drop 60% and hit low of $2.15 from 52-week high of $15.65.

Garmin (GRMN) Still dropping on earnings concerns. Bottoms at $45.38 down from 52-week high of $125.68.

Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC) Paper companies hit by commodities costs and rising price of oil. Runs down to $6.65 from 52-week high of $14.08.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: April 9, 2008 – 2:40 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

The 52-Week Low Club (ESI)(AVR)(SMSI)(ANAD)

Cott Corp (COT) Job cuts. Falls to $3.81 from 52-week high of $17.33.

ITT Educational Services (ESI) Cuts outlook. Student loan market is rough. Drops to $52.40 from 52-week high of $131.81.

Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) Money locked up in auction-rate market. Shares off to $6.37 from 52-week high of $20.85.

Smith Micro Software (SMSI) Downgraded due to acquisition costs. Drops to $5.33 from 52-week high of $21.20.

ANADIGICS (ANAD) Still dropping days after poor Q1 outlook. Down to $7.45 from 52-week high of $19.53.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: February 25, 2008 – 4:15 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AVR, DNA, GM, HAIN, JNPR, MTL, MOT, NYT, BTU, YUM)

Below are the top research calls that 247WallSt.com is focusing on:

  • Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil.
  • Genentech (NYSE: DNA) raised to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw.
  • General Motors (NYSE: GM) downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Hain Celestial (NASDAQ: HAIN) raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) raised to Outperform at RBC Capital Markets.
  • Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Motorola (NYSE: MOT) downgraded to Perform from outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • New York Times (NYSE: NYT) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
  • YUM! Brands (NYSE: YUM) raised to Buy at UBS.

Jon C. Ogg
February 25, 2008

Posted on: February 25, 2008 – 7:44 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

The 52Week Low Club (CBEY)(BRLC)(BX)(DGX)(LTM)(AVR)

Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) Bad earnings and liquidity issues. Down to $6.79 from 52-week high of $20.85.

Life Time Fitness (NYSE: LTM) Bad outlook from 2008. Sells off to $30.40 from 52-week high of $65.09.

Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) Forecast is below Wall St. numbers. Falls to $46.44 from 52-week high of $58.63.

Blackstone (NYSE: BX) Environment getting worse for private equity. Drops to $15.25 from 52-week high of $38.

Syntax Brillian (NASDAQ: BRLC) Falls on problems with creditors. Down to $.83 from 52-week high of $9.04.

Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) Investors not happy with quarterly numbers. Sells down to $15.58 from 52-week high of $46.51.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: February 22, 2008 – 4:00 pm in HI/LOW, , , , , ,