24/7 Wall St. » AWK

Investors Seeking Defensive Stocks Where 3% to Over 5% Dividends Rule!

Administrator — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:14:54 +0000

A stock market that sells off eight of nine days is not a good market. Even the Facebook IPO is being viewed as a one-off item rather than a systemic item which will make the market stronger. With “Sell in May and go away!” remaining prevalent and with Europe in meltdown as Asia slows, the big question is where to hide. Some investors just refuse to accept the floor-level rates of CDs and Treasury bills and Treasury notes, so they go hide out in the defensive stocks like tobacco, consumer staples, basic level food, utilities, big-pharma, and maybe even those high-yields in telecom. This is a market where defensive stocks should rule the roost.

People are going to buy Coke and Pepsi, most likely, in almost any economy. Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is actually up 0.6% at $67.23 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.6% at $76.95 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these pay about the same as the 30-Year Treasury’s long-bond. The beer segment remains uncorrelated to defensive stocks as it did last week (in part due to currencies): Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) is down by 0.7% at $71.43 and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) is down 1.2% at $40.81. Even the best water utility in America via American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) is down another 1% $33.99 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive. You gotta eat, right? McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is down almost 0.4% at $91.55 and getting further and further away from that $102.22 all-time high recently seen. The rest of the defensive food segment is up to mixed as food is defensive and with dividends:

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is up 0.4% at $39.20 with a 3% yield that challenges the long-bond;
ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.2% at $25.67 with a 3.7% yield that beats the long-bond;
Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is up 0.25% at $34.49 with a 3.4% yield that beats the long-bond;
Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 0.1% at $29.08 but its 2.1% yield is ‘only’ paying what the 10-year has been paying recently.

Smoking has those nice 5%-plus yields for the defensive tobacco sector: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only 0.1% at $31.75 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down 0.5% at $16.73; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.41 against a high of $42.81.

Diapers, toothpaste, deodorant, and shaving… consumer products are acting defensive: Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is down only 0.3% at $63.50 with a 3.5% yield; Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up by 0.3% at $79.62 with a 3.7% yield; Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down 0.1% at $99.20 but it only pays about 2.5% for a dividend yield.

Drug and medical is mixed to positive: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is up by over 0.8% at $38.35 with its 4.4% yield; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down only $0.01 at $22.64 with its 3.9% yield; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down 0.5% at $64.00 with its 3.8% yield.

Those smartphones and telephones are not acting defensive at all today with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) down 0.9% at $40.80 with its 5% yield and with AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) down 0.7% at $33.36 with a 5.4% yield.

Some investors are willing to suffer from the near-zero return of Treasuries, while others are going to try to look for the safest of stocks to seek safe and steady dividends. The DJIA is down 0.7% and the S&P 500 was down 0.6% at last look. Both are actually much better than what we were looking at just two hours or so ago.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Defensive Stocks, Dividend Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

The Market Where Defensive Shares Are Working Again (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, AWK, MCD, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, KMB, CL, MRK, PFE, JNJ, T, VZ)

Administrator — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:07:03 +0000

Blame whatever you want. A weaker U.S. economy, a weakening and flailing Europe, a move to socialism in France and Greece, a weaker BRIC and emerging market story, commodity prices and on and on… Commodity prices and their tracking shares are getting hosed today. Why does the “Sell in May and go away!” profile often coincide with sell-offs so well?

After the weakness in the broad market has the DJIA down 140 points (or -1.1%) and the S&P 500 Index down 15 points or 1.1%, it turns out that most of the defensive stock sector leaders are holding up far better than the broad market in our go-to defensive stock portfolio. We have taken a look at each of these with share price snapshots right before Noon EST.

No matter what, you gotta drink! Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is down 0.5% at $66.28 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.4% at $76.97 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these are now challenging the 30-Year Treasury yields. The beer segment is not acting defensive as it should, perhaps because they are foreign issues now with more currency risks: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) are not acting very defensive with price corrections of 3% and 2$ respectively.

Perhaps the most defensive you can get is water, and the top water utility is American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) with a premium valuation. This water leader is down 0.8% at $33.73 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive, although a drop of 1.5% in McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) to $94.10 is causing some added stress in what was the darling of the DJIA in 2011. The rest of the defensive food segment seems to be less damaged when you evaluate the moves: Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is down only 0.4% at $39.11; ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.7% at $25.52; Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is down only 0.3% at $33.97; and Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 1 penny at $28.92 as the world is getting excited about Spam again.

Smoking is defensive again and the tobacco stocks are holding up much better than the broad market with those 5% and higher dividends: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only $0.3% at $32.10 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down only 0.2% at $16.88; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.18 against a high of $42.81.

Shaving, diapers, toilet paper, and other consumer products are acting defensive with some gains on a weak day. Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is trading up $0.11 at $64.36 and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up $0.08 at $79.08 with KMB challenging the 52-week high. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down ‘only’ 0.5% at $99.10 against a 52-week high of $100.81.

Drug and medical is holding up on the consumer end with losses look far less than the broader market: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is down 0.35% at $38.40; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down 0.3% at $22.38; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down the least with a drop of 0.2% at $64.65 against a 52-week high of $68.05.

Those smartphones and telephones are somewhat defensive, and those 5%-plus yields sure shield investors who are worried about chasing the hottest growth stocks. Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is down only 1-penny at $40.52 with a 5% dividend yield and AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) is actually up 0.2% at $33.08 with a yield of about 5.4%.

When investors want safety and when the Treasury yield is so low on the longer-term Treasury market, many investors turn to the safety of the higher dividends and safer stocks that are defensive. Greece and the rest of PIIGS may fall again, but the logic is that U.S. consumers still have to eat, drink, shave, put on deodorant, and tend to stick with their core vices as best as they can.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Defensive Stocks, Dividend, Drug companies, Food, Telecom, Tobacco Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

The Top Earnings Previews For The Week Ahead (NYX, ACI, ADM, BRCM, CHK, SIRI, VLO, AWK, NLY, CMCSA, FSLR, GRMN, HIG, MA, SYMC, V, WFM)

Administrator — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 16:01:24 +0000

Earnings season is in full swing and the coming week is going to be extremely active with big earnings reports. 24/7 Wall St. has tried to preview several top earnings for the week ahead.

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) is on Monday and the following earnings reports are due on Tuesday: Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI); Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM); Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM); Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK); Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI); Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO).

Wednesday’s top earnings reports on deck are as follows: American Water Works Co. (NYSE: AWK); Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY); Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA); First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR); Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN); Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC); Visa Inc. (NYSE: V); and Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM).

We will provide previews for the larger report due on Thursday as the reports get closer. As a reminder, some of the dates and estimates may change and some of them may have already changed. Consensus estimates are from Thomson Reuters and we have provided color on each if applicable.

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) reports on Monday. The consensus estimates are $0.48 EPS and $611.1 million in revenues. Shares are around $27.00, and the consensus analyst price target is $32.30. Now that the German merger (the German takeover of America’s top exchange) is off the table, investors are focusing on the values here.

TUESDAY, May 1

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is due Tuesday morning and its shares have been battered along with the entire coal sector. Estimates are $0.16 EPS and $1.12 billion in revenues. Shares are around $9.50, and the consensus analyst price target is $32.30.

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) is due Tuesday morning and estimates are $0.59 EPS and $21.4 billion in revenues. Shares are around $31.00, and the consensus analyst price target is almost $34.00.

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) reports after the close on Tuesday and it has been riding the Apple wave. The consensus estimates are $0.55 EPS and $1.8 billion in revenues. Shares are around $36.30 and the consensus analyst price target is $42.40.

Filed under: Calendar, Earnings, The Week Tagged: ACI, ADM, AWK, BRCM, CHK, CMCSA, FSLR, GRMN, HIG, MA, NLY, NYX, SIRI, SYMC, V, VLO, WFM

World Water Day’s Top Pick: American Water Works (AWK)

Administrator — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 17:56:05 +0000

Did you know there is even a World Water Day? You should. The future of water is dire and most Americans do not know what a challenge it is in many regions of the emerging and even the developed world to get potable water in any quantity at any time without limitation. Future wars are possibly going to be fought over water rights. So, what does this mean for your finances today? If there is one water investment that investors can chase it is American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK).

This is the largest of the public utilities in America and it has only been public (again) since 2008. If you look just at the charts the initial thought may be that the stock got away from you. We have been calling for a bright future here on this one since the low-$20′s, but we would still not shy away. Investors should use any weakness as the opportunity, but the problem to consider is that this stock almost never pulls back by 10% from its new highs. When it does, it has proven time after time to be a bargain.

American Water Works serves approximately 15 million people with drinking water, wastewater, and other water services in about 30 states and 2 Canadian provinces. The market value is still not off the charts compared to electric utilities as it is valued at $5.85 billion.

Where it sounds expensive is its 17-times expected earnings multiple. The reason for this is simple: it is a series of built-in local monopolies around America. Power companies and telecom companies often have competing interests for their services even at the expense of some of the large operators. That is just not the case in the world of water.

At $33.35, the 52-week trading range is $25.39 to $34.67 and the Thomson Reuters consensus is now up to $36.07. Long-term we see this one going to $40.00 and the dividend yield is currently about 2.8% and it is a member of our Model 2012 Dividend Portfolio. We expect another dividend hike to be announced this summer.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Agriculture, Corporate Governance, Defensive Stocks, Dividend, Economy, Editor's Picks, Infrastructure, Utilities, Water Tagged: AWK

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (ALU, AWK, BLK, CMA, DPZ, KBH, LOW, PCS, MWW, MSI, RF, TAL, TCBI, TRV, UNM)

Administrator — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 13:31:04 +0000

These are some of this Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls.

Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) Cut to Neutral at Baird; named as Momentum stock of the day at Zacks.

BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $46 at Argus.

KB Home (NYSE: KBH) named as Bear of the Day with Underperform rating at Zacks.

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS) Maintained Buy with $15 target at Argus.

Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MSI) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE: RF) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James.

TAL International Group Inc. (NYSE: TAL) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.

Texas Capital Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBI) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Travelers Companies (NYSE: TRV) Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.

Unum Group (NYSE: UNM) Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox. We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: 24/7 Wall St. Wire, Analyst Calls Tagged: ALU, AWK, BLK, CMA, DPZ, KBH, LOW, MSI, MWW, PCS, RF, TAL, TCBI, TRV, UNM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (ALU, WBMD, URBN, RL, AWK, LEN, SVU, SHIP, LEDS, SNX, JASO, YRCW, CROX, HL, HRC)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 21:05:20 +0000

Equities opened modestly down this morning and the three major indexes have stayed within a few points of flat all day. The NASDAQ composite has remained in positive territory as the technology sector has benefited from a sharp buying trend in solar stocks. The EIA’s weekly petroleum report came in with a crude build of 5 million barrels, way above an expected gain of 1 million barrels. The report weighed on energy stocks since mid-morning. The euro has also been weaker today, adding a bit of push to equity buying. Crude oil is ending the day down, with WTI crude down about -1.3% at $100.92/barrel and Brent crude is down 0.64% at $112.55/barrel. Gold closed higher, at $1,640.50/ounce, after posting a four-week high earlier today.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 13 points to 12,449.08 (-0.11%), the NASDAQ rose more than 8 points (0.31%) to 2,710.76, and the S&P 500 rose 0.03% or less than 1 point to 1,292.44.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; WebMD Health Corp. (NASDAQ: WBMD) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) cut to ‘sell’ at Citigroup; Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) cut to ‘market perform’ at Wells Fargo; and American Water Works Co. Inc. (NYSE: AWK) raised to ‘buy’ at Ladenburg Thalmann.

Earnings reports since markets closed yesterday have led to some price changes: Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is up 6.3% at $22.07 after posting a new 52-week high of $22.53 earlier today; Supervalu Inc. (NYSE: SVU) is down nearly -13% at $7.33; Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP) is up more than 5.5% at $2.65; SemiLEDS Corp. (NASDAQ: LEDS) is more than 5% at $3.69; and Synnex Corp. (NYSE: SNX) is up more than 8% at $34.80.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is up more than 37% at $1.97. The Chinese solar maker is among several Chinese solar companies getting a boost today from news that solar panel prices appear to be stabilizing. We have more coverage here.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is up nearly 16% at $11.38. The transportation company has said it will auction 62 of its surplus US sites.

Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is up more than 17% at $18.73. The funny-shoe company has estimated that sales in the current fiscal year will top $1 billion for the first time.

Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE: HL) is down about -22% at $4.55, after posting a new 52-week low of $4.25 earlier today. The silver miner has lowered its production estimate due to a forced closure of a shaft at its Nevada mine.

Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRC) is down nearly -12% at $30.45. The medical equipment maker and services provider lowered fourth-quarter and full-year guidance last night.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Here are the noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims report
8:30 a.m. – Census Bureau retail sales report
10:00 a.m. – Census Bureau business inventories report
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas status report
1:00 p.m. – 30-year bond auction
2:00 p.m. – US Treasury budget
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: ALU, AWK, CROX, HL, HRC, JASO, LEDS, LEN, RL, SHIP, SNX, SVU, URBN, WBMD, YRCW

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AKS, ALU, AWK, APA, AF, AZK, DRI, HBAN, PHG, LTD, PIR, Rl, RL, UL, URBN, VIP, WBMD, WCC)

Administrator — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:07:18 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street brokerage and research firms this Wednesday morning.

AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) Raised to Outperform with $12 target at Credit Suisse.
Alcatel-Lucent, S.A. (NYSE: ALU) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann.
Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE: AF) Cut to UNderweight at JPMorgan.
Aurizon Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AZK) named as Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HBAN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV (NYSE: PHG) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Lazard Ltd. (NYSE: LTD) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) Started as Hold at Argus.
Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Unilever PLC (NYSE: UL) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE: VIP) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
WebMD Health Corporation (NASDAQ: WBMD) Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
WESCO International (NYSE: WCC) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

If you enjoyed the Top Analyst Calls, you can sign up in the box below to join our morning email list to receive news directly in your inbox each morning. We include major analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs, M&A, special situation developments, observations on Warren Buffett and key market gurus, as well as special exclusive feature stories.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AF, AKS, ALU, APA, AWK, AZK, DRI, HBAN, LTD, PHG, PIR, RL, UL, URBN, VIP, WBMD, WCC

The 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio (AEP, AWK, T, GE, GOV, KMB, SNH, WMT, JNK, AMJ, AMLP, PGF, MO, DLR, EPD, KMP)

Administrator — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 19:41:33 +0000

It seems that most investors have started adding income or dividend reinvestment plans to their portfolios by using dividend stocks. With the yields of the 10-Year Treasury close to 2% and the 30-Year Treasury close to 3%, investors are looking elsewhere for investment income. 24/7 Wall St. has compiled its own 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio. It has some new names and some deletions from prior dividend lists due to price appreciation or fundamental changes.

It turns out that many stocks with high dividend yields are now more attractive than sovereign debt in the U.S. and abroad. Part of the allure, besides income or reinvestment, is that dividend stocks often hold up better than other investments during jittery markets. It is hard to imagine, but the high-yield utility sector was one of the top performers of the S&P in 2011. In some cases, half of an investor’s total return through time may come from dividends. Warren Buffett generally picks dividend-paying companies for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) after following some of the principles of Benjamin Graham.

The 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend Portfolio includes the following stocks: American Electric Power Co., Inc. (NYSE: AEP); American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK); AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T); General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE); Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV); Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB); Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH); and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).

While exchange-traded products have been avoided in the past, recent trends merit a look at the open-end or closed-end mutual funds and ETF products as follows: SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (NYSE: JNK); JPMorgan Alerian MLP Index ETN (NYSE: AMJ); ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (NYSE: AMLP); and PowerShares Financial Preferred (NYSE: PGF).

Lastly, there have been some exits due to upside price performance: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO); Digital Realty Trust Inc. (NYSE: DLR); Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD); and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP).

We have described the features and outlook for each component of our Model Dividend Portfolio.

Filed under: Bonds, Compensation, Conglomerates, Corporate Governance, Dividend, Editor's Picks, ETF, Mutual Funds, Oil & Gas, Shareholder Issues, Special Report, Stock Buybacks, Tax, Tobacco, Utilities, Value Investing Tagged: AEP, AMJ, AMLP, AWK, BAC, BRK-A, DLR, EPD, GE, GOV, HBC, INTC, JNK, JPM, KMB, KMP, MET, MO, PGF, SNH, T, VZ, WFC, WMT

Huge Upside Valuation Calls in Water Utilities (AWK, WTR, CWT, AWR)

Administrator — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 16:42:42 +0000

There remains substantial value, growth, and income opportunity in the water sector. This has been our take for some time, and a report out of Gabelli & Company this morning is further highlighting this. In fact, Gabelli’s “private market value” is far more aggressive than our own internal model and they have an implied upside of close to 30% to 50% higher on average if you look out to the end of 2013. Keep in mind that these are not exactly official price targets, but they are upside valuation calls under deal, restructuring, and other forms of valuation.

The water utilities covered by Gabelli were American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK), Aqua America Inc. (NYSE: WTR), California Water Service Group (NYSE: CWT), and American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR).

Gabelli’s research noted, “Water utility stocks and the S&P Composite are unchanged year-to-date, which compares to an 11% advance for the S&P Utilities Index… we believe the water and wastewater industry is ripe for new rounds of consolidation and privatization as the sector is in the early stages of an extended period of restructuring.”

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) currently trades at $30.80 and it remains our own personal favorite for water investors. We think this can go to the mid-$30′s or even get closer to $40 ultimately, but we are way short of Gabelli’s “private market value.” Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $34.00, but Gabelli’s “PMV” is all the way up at $44.00 for this year, $47.00 for 2012, and $49.00 for 2013. Cited are strong earnings growth, proposed water rate hikes, acquisitions, and asset changes.

Aqua America Inc. (NYSE: WTR) currently trades around $22.00 is also given high upside marks by Gabelli and its private market values are as follows: $27.00 for 2011, $28 for $2012, and $30 for 2013. This upside is based upon strong credit ratings and a low-risk business model which has both a cost-driven model and a growth oriented culture. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of about $24.60.

California Water Service Group (NYSE: CWT) trades around $18.80 and Gabelli calls it a high-quality water utility with a strong balance sheet (46% common equity) with an A+ investment-grade rating. Recent and pending rate relief were also cited as strengths. Gabelli’s private market value is $24.00 for 2011, $27.00 for 2012, and $28.00 for 2013. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $21.00.

American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) trades around $35.50 and Gabelli noted a strong balance sheet (53% common equity), an ‘A+’ investment-grade ratings, recent and pending rate activity, a 3.2% dividend, and privatization contracts. Gabelli gives a private market value rating as follows: $48.00 for 2011, $50.00 in 2012, and $53.00 in 2013. Thomson Reuters has a consensus price target of $38.34.

Again, these private market value ratings are not exact price targets. They are meant to show implied upside bands under certain situations. The Thomson Reuters consensus price targets are generally 10% above current share prices.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Infrastructure, Utilities, Value Investing, Water Tagged: AWK, AWR, CWT, WTR

24/7 Wall St. Top Analyst Calls of the Week (AWK, NLY, ARMH, INTC, BAC, C, JPM, CAT, DAL, DNDN, DMND, HGSI, OPEN, SNDK, VLO, VICL, YRCW)

Administrator — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 11:15:03 +0000

Each morning 24/7 Wall St. issues a list of some of the key analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research firms. We review these and other calls from the week to see which stand out the most. Some are great calls that were greatly insightful. Other calls may be relevant well into the future. And then there are some calls which turned out to be total duds that were very painful for the analysts who made them and to the traders that listened.

After reviewing and filtering all of these research reports, we end up with the top analyst calls of the week. The top analyst calls of the week were in the following stocks: American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK); Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY); ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH); Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC); Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C); J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM); Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT); Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL); Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN); Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND); Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI); OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO); Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL); and YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) was down on Friday, but earlier in the week it was added to the #1 Strong Buy List at Zacks. Despite its performance and valuations, we still see this one as a favorable stock for most investment portfolios.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY) saw shares slide this last week but we had an analyst duel. Wells Fargo raised Annaly to Outperform on Thursday, but Ladenburg Thalmann cut the rating to Neutral from Buy.

ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) was given a much better upside call against Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) by BMO Capital Markets mid-week, but this call goes against what the consensus analyst group is calling for. BMO raised ARM to Outperform and simultaneously downgraded Intel to Market Perform in the call.

Banking Sector Alert: On Tuesday afternoon came a bank sector downgrade by S&P Capital IQ, where Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) were both downgraded to “Hold” from “Buy.” On Wednesday morning Credit Suisse actually raised Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) to “Outperform” and it gave a $48 price target.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) was one of the few infrastructure players given a positive call by a new round of research calls by Morgan Stanley this last Wednesday. The firm started Caterpillar with an “Overweight” in a call which was cautious among many infrastructure and farming equipment makers.

Filed under: Analyst Calls, The Week Tagged: ARMH, AWK, BAC, C, CAT, DAL, DMND, DNDN, HGSI, INTC, JPM, NLY, OPEN, SNDK, VICL, VLO, YRCW