24/7 Wall St. has gone through the industrial products, chemicals, and heavy equipment makers to see which outfits offer investors the least risk and most reward.  Consensus targets are from Thomson Reuters and we have evaluated the following: Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD); The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA); Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT); Deere & Company (NYSE: DE); The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW); E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD); Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR); and Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW).

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) traded at $79.50 with a market value of $16.8 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $98.75 and the 52-week trading range is $72.26 to $98.00.  Air Products’ most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) traded at $71.05 with a market value of $53.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $86.08 and the 52-week trading range is $56.01 to $78.35.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as about 2.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 21% but we would note that the consensus target is almost $8.00 higher than the 52-week high and you have to go back to before the recession to find Boeing shares that high.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) traded at $91.25 with a market value of $59.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $130.95 and the 52-week trading range is $67.54 to $116.95.  Caterpillar’s most recent yield was listed as 2.0%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 44% but we would note that the consensus target is almost 10% above the 52-week high.

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) traded at $74.50 with a market value of $30 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $92.79 and the 52-week trading range is $59.92 to $89.70.  Deere’s most recent yield was listed as 2.4%. The implied upside to the consensus target is about 25% but we would note that the consensus target is about $3.00 higher than the 52-week high.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) traded at $30.00 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $37.23 and the 52-week trading range is $20.61 to $37.30.  Dow’s most recent yield was listed as a very high 4.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus effectively is the same as the 52-week high.

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD) traded at $48.40 with a market value of $45.3 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $58.33 and the 52-week trading range is $37.10 to $56.20.  DuPont’s yield was listed as about 3.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 20% and that target is about $2.00 above the 52-week high.

Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR) traded at $51.85 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.95 and the 52-week trading range is $39.34 to $56.45.  Danaher’s most recent yield was tiny at only 0.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 17% and it is worth noting that the analyst consensus target is more than $4.00 above the 52-week high.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) traded at $54.40 with a market value of $26 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $61.53 and the 52-week trading range is $39.12 to $59.27.  ITW’s most recent yield was listed as 2.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 13%, making this the least ‘implied upside’ winner of the lot.  This one is also only down about 8% from its most recent high as well.

You can see that there is a very mixed bag here.  The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) leads in the dividend department with a 4.2% yield.  Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is the leader with ‘implied analyst upside’ of 44% but it seems a stretch in the upside if you look at where the stock has been and how volatile the stock has been.  Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) has the least amount of ‘implied analyst upside’ but it has also held up among the best during the market sell-off.

Gold & Silver Miners With Most Upside & Value

Major Oil Companies WIth Most Upside & Value

Conglomerates With Most Upside & Value

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 134 points to 12,503.87 (1.09%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 68 points (2.46%) to 2,847.21, and the S&P 500 rose 1.60% or nearly 21 points to 1,316.00.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) cut to ‘sell’ at UBS; Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) raised to ‘buy’ at SocGen; Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; and Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) cut to ‘hold’ at BB&T.

Earnings reports since markets closed on Friday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is down -2.1% at $32.71; Hastings Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ: HAST) is up 15.2% at $2.05; Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD) is up 12.3% at $6.75; Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is down -10.1% at $25.60 (more coverage here); Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD) is up 0.7% at $47.78; and Tudou Holdings Ltd. (NASDAQ: TUDO) is up 11.3% at $33.37.

Tomorrow we are scheduled to get earnings reports from Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO), Best Buy, Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES), Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), Williams Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM), and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) is down -11% at $34.03. Following Friday’s massively-hyped IPO and the CEO’s weekend wedding, a falling share price was probably inevitable. More coverage here.

Cooper Industries plc (NYSE: CBE) is up 25.2% at $69.96 after posting a new 52-week high this morning of $70.97. The company is being acquired by Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) for $11.8 billion. More coverage here.

Westport Innovations Inc. (NASDAQ: WPRT) is up 12% at $26.57. The natural gas engine maker has a deal with Volvo for a new truck engine.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is giving a speech. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. – Existing home sales
10:00 a.m. – Richmond Fed manufacturing index
11:30 a.m. – 4-week bill auction
1:00 p.m. – 2-year note auction

Paul Ausick

Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP) Cut to Sell at UBS.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Market Underperform at JMP Securities.

Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) Cut to Hold at BB&T.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) Raised to Buy at Argus.

Donaldson Company. Inc. (NYSE: DCI) Reiterated Outperform and raised estimates at Credit Suisse.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) Started as Positive at Susquehanna.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) Cut to Market Underperform at JMP Securities.

Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) Reiterated Buy at Argus.

Kirkland’s, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIRK) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Cut to Market Underperform at JMP Securities.

Myriad Genetics (NASDAQ: MYGN) Raised to Outperform at Leerink Swann.

Nuance Communications (NASDAQ: NUAN) Started as Neutral with $25 target at Goldman Sachs.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) Raised to Buy at Societe Generale.

Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Safeway (NYSE: SWY) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

Splunk, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK) Started as Overweight at Barclays.

TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Zebra Technologies (NASDAQ: ZBRA) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox.  We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

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JON C. OGG

A new poll from Gallup shows:

About two in three adults worldwide believe corruption is widespread in the businesses in their countries. This belief is relatively commonplace everywhere in the world — ranging from 60% in the U.S. and Canada to a high of 76% in sub-Saharan Africa — but it tends to be higher in lower income regions.

By most accounts, bribery and corruption are not restricted much by law or its enforcement in the developing world. So there the extremely poor, which are a significant part of the population, likely have evidence that confirms their suspicions.

The figures for the U.S. and Canada, where people say corruption is prevalent, should be disheartening and of significant concern to businesses, from small companies to large corporations. That “corruption is widespread” measure of adults in the U.S. and Canada is 60%. Gallup does not give good reasons for why the figure is so high.

One reason for the U.S. and Canada figure is that people’s memories are strong. The Walmart (NYSE: WMT) corruption case will remain part of the conversation about big business for decades, whether or not the charges about its actions in Mexico are proven. Trouble with the government at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is fresh in people’s minds as well. Very few people over 30 do not remember Enron, one of the greatest lapses in business ethics in the U.S. ever. And there are the less well remembered Worldcom and a series of CEO and bribery missteps at Boeing (NYSE: BA). There are plenty of these incidents.

The perception of corruption is so widespread because it is true, no matter how unfortunate that is for businesses and the people who are their customers, and sometimes investors.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Airbus and its parent European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. NV (OTC: EADSY.PK) reported today that the aircraft maker booked just 11 new orders in April — and those orders were taken for the A350, a plane comparable to the 777 from Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA). The A380 is Airbus’s late competitor to the Boeing 747.

The latest contract cancellation for seven A350s came from Abu Dhabi’s state-owned airlines Etihad. Full deliveries of the aircraft were to begin in 2014, but the schedule has been delayed and Etihad was not scheduled to receive the planes until 2017. No reason was given for the cancellation, but the recent problems with the A380 cannot have fostered confidence in the company.

Orders for new planes at both Airbus and Boeing are soft so far this year. Airbus claims net new orders for the first four months of 2012 of 112 planes. Boeing claims net new orders of 415 planes so far in 2012. All but two of Boeing’s new orders are for the venerable 737. Boeing’s new plane, the 787 Dreamliner, has a negative net total new orders so far this year.

Paul Ausick

Boeing machinists walked off the job in 2008. Boeing’s C-17 plant in Los Angeles was shut in the summer of 2010 because workers were upset with the company’s benefits offer. There was more trouble with unions, which have members who work at Boeing, late last year. Machinists pressured Boeing then about the construction of a plant in South Carolina. The battle was great enough to involve the National Labor Relations Board. The UAW would never have had similar leverage at the Big Three over the past four years. And the future power of that union has been undermined at the car companies, with the agreement of the unions oddly enough, in exchange for a part of the financial turnaround of Detroit.

UAW workers at GM used to get among the best benefits given by any U.S. company. Hourly wages were high enough that, combined with these benefits, GM lost its margin advantage over Japanese rivals. The years and years of extraordinary compensation are over. New blue-collar workers at GM get a fraction of what their predecessors did. But GM paid 47,500 blue-collar workers $7,000 each earlier this year because of the car company’s large profits.

Caterpillar workers can strike. They have pay and benefits to maintain. Caterpillar’s success allowed them to keep much of what they are fighting for now. GM workers could not do the same. All each of them gets is $7,000.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Social gifting is a growing part of e-commerce. (Reuters)

Barron’s says Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) could join the DJIA. (Reuters)

Spain’s gross domestic product drops 0.3% from the last quarter of 2011 to the first of 2012, meaning the economy is in recession. (WSJ)

Slow earnings may hurt the U.S. rally. (WSJ)

The Wall Street Journal highlights ten women who may soon become CEOs of major companies, including Charlene Begley of General Electric (NYSE: GE), Rosalind Brewer of Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Juliana Chugg of General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Virginia “Gina” Drosos of Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Jan Fields of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and Michelle Gass of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX). (WSJ)

Philip Falcone agrees to step down as the most visible person at LightSquared. (WSJ)

China’s new economy starts to help outside consumer companies and hurt manufacturers. (WSJ)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will begin to pay sales taxes in Texas and will keep workers there as a result. (WSJ)

Boeing (NYSE: BA) completes the first stage at its South Carolina plant after a period of labor disputes. (WSJ)

The EU battle over bank capital levels continues. (WSJ)

China’s huge purchases of cotton have kept its price high. (WSJ)

Scandals at News Corp. (NYSE: NWSA) may hurt its expansion over the years. (NYT)

Walmart’s U.S. expansion will be hurt by the Mexico bribery probe. (NYT)

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) to announce an exclusive deal to supply all nonalcoholic beverages in IHOP and Applebee’s. (NYT)

Spain may set up a series of “bad banks” in an attempt to cordon off the industry’s problems. (FT)

Soy prices begin a new round of food inflation. (FT)

More financial firms face shareholder votes on executive pay. (FT)

Efforts among EU officials to move from austerity to stimulus hets up. (Bloomberg)

A number of analysts expect the S&P 500 to reach a record this year. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

The P&G board has to take much of the blame for the company’s performance particularly because it has sent positive public signals about McDonald’s performance. He was paid $16.1 million last year and $13.1 million in the previous year. In both cases, McDonald got a raise.

The board’s decision about McDonald will rest to a large extent with presiding director W. James McNerney, Jr., who is the chairman and CEO of Boeing (NYSE: BA), a company which has had a number of financial and operating problems of its own. McNerney job has been on the line off and on. He would have to gather the P&G independent directors if any action is to be take to oust McDonald

Who would the board put into the CEO’s position? There are a number of outside candidates, but if P&G goes inside, there are only two realistic alternatives. One is Werner Geissler, who runs global operations. He is as close as the company has to a COO. The other candidate is E. Dimitri Panayotopoulos, who is head of the huge global household care division.

McDonald can’t survive another bad quarter, which means he has to do better than P&G’s already lowered guidance. Even money he is out three months from now, if his past performance is any indication

Douglas A. McIntyre

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 89 points to 13,090.95 (0.69%), the NASDAQ rose more than 68 points (2.3%) to 3,029.63, and the S&P 500 rose 1.37% or nearly 19 points to 1,390.70.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Apple raised to ‘outperform’ at Scotia and maintained ‘buy’ with a target price of $775 at Canaccord Genuity; J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) raised to ‘market perform’ at BMO; McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) started as ‘buy’ at Citigroup; Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; and Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Apple is up 8.9% at $610.02 (our coverage here); Anixter International Inc. (NYSE: AXE) is down -4% at $66.76; Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) is up 11.5% at $81.74; Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) is down -4% at $20.78; Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is up 3.6% at $72.77; Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX) is up 5.2% at $35.47; AutoNation Inc. (NYSE: AN) is down -0.9% at $33.27; Clayton Williams Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: CWEI) is up 1.6% at $76.45; Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) is up 6.7% at $14.25; Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is up 6.1% at $53.45 after posting a new 52-week high of $53.98 earlier today; Lithia Motors Inc. (NYSE: LAD) is up 7.4% at $26.84; and US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is up 2.5% at $9.55 (more coverage here).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is down -4.5% at $103.55. The heavy equipment maker reported declining sales in China as growth in the country has slowed, which led to the sell-off today.

CNH Global NV (NYSE: CNH) is up 3.6% at $45.66. The farm equipment maker beat EPS estimates by almost 50% and sales were also higher.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is up 5.3% at $77.06. The aircraft maker reported solid earnings and revenues this morning. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – New unemployment benefits claims
• 8:30 a.m. – Chicago Fed national activity index
• 10:00 a.m. – Pending home sales index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 11:00 a.m. – Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
• 1:00 p.m. – 7-year note auction
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

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Paul Ausick

The company’s revenues from commercial aircraft sales jumped 54% to $10.94 billion and sales of military aircraft rose 27% to $4.3 billion. It’s interesting to contrast Boeing’s military business with other military contractors like General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC), both of which also reported earnings today. Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) and Raytheon Corp. (NYSE: RTN) are scheduled to report earnings tomorrow.

Boeing’s defense and space business posted an operating margin of 9% in the first quarter, about 10% lower than its operating margin in the company’s commercial aircraft business. But the margin growth was only 0.2% year-over-year in defense, compared with margin growth of 2.7% in the commercial business.

Boeing also lifted its full-year EPS forecast from $4.05-$4.25 to a new range of $4.15-$4.35.

General Dynamics, which makes tanks and combat vehicles, reported that sales in its combat systems group fell -2.3%. Northrop reported that sales in its aerospace group, which manufactures drones, fell -8% and profits fell -2.7%. Northrop’s electronics group posted a gain in profits even as sales fell.

The proposed cut of $490 billion in US defense spending over the next 10 years will certainly have a larger impact on General Dynamics and Northrop than it will on Boeing. Still today’s report from the US Census Bureau on durable goods orders is not too encouraging for Boeing either. Of a decline of $7.7 billion in new orders for aircraft and parts, some $7.1 billion of the drop came in non-defense orders (our coverage here).

The backlog of orders for non-defense aircraft is up 15.6% compared with March 2011 and the defense backlog is up 5.6%. But those backlogs are likely to shrink as new orders, especially for non-commercial aircraft, are filled.

Lockheed is expected to post EPS of $1.70 on revenue of $10.56 billion tomorrow. Raytheon, also scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, is slated to post EPS of $1.16 on revenue of $5.77 billion. For both the EPS estimate is lower than year-ago actuals, while the revenue estimates are higher.

Boeing’s shares are up 4.3% in the first half-hour of trading this morning at $76.36 in a 52-week range of $56.01-$80.65.

General Dynamics’ shares are down -1.3% at $69.12 in a 52-week range of $53.95-$75.93.

Northrop’s shares are up 2.3% at $64.18 in a 52-week range of $49.20-$70.61.
Shares of Lockheed are up 0.5% at $91.60 after posting a new 52-week high of $91.79, and shares of Raytheon are up 0.9% at $53.47 after another new 52-week high of $53.56.

Paul Ausick