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Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (ATHN, BARE, CHU, CIEN, DPS, EPB, EQY, LAMR, PALM, TQNT, UPL)

247wallst — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:32:39 +0000

These are this Friday’s top analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen from Wall Street research calls early this morning:

athenahealth (NASDAQ: ATHN) downgraded to market perform at JMP Securities, cut to neutral at Baird.
Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ: BARE) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) Raised to Buy at eutsche Bank.
Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
El Paso Pipeline (NYSE: EPB) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Equity One (NYSE: EQY) Cut to Sell at UBS.
Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR) Raised to Overweightat JPMorgan.Motorola (NYSE: MOT) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Palm Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) Cut to Hold at Kaufman Bros.
Triquint Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TQNT) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

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JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ATHN, BARE, CHU, CIEN, DPS, EPB, EQY, LAMR, PALM, TQNT, UPL

Cosmetics Companies Down The Recession Drain (EL, RDEN, AVP, BARE, REV)

247wallst — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:30:11 +0000

Husbands have long joked that certain segments in their households, such as cosmetics and personal beauty care products, were largely immune from recessions. Many will still joke about this, but the numbers reported by Estee Lauder Companies Inc.(NYSE: EL) and Elizabeth Arden, Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN) show this is not quite the case. The good news is that they are at least still very profitable. Both companies cut their earnings forecast and this is taking its toll on other major players in the sector today. Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP), Bare Escentuals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE), and Revlon Inc. (NYSE: REV) are all trading as though they are next in line to join the warnings parade.

Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) lowered its fiscal-Q2 and Fiscal-2009 net salesand net earnings projections. The company sees Q2 EPS of $0.75 to$0.82 versus $0.99 consensus estimates on roughly a 6% year- -over-yearconstant currency revenue basis. The company now sees earnings at $1.30 to$1.60 in fiiscal 2009 EPS rather than a prior range of $2.20 to $2.50. Consensus estimates are for earnings of $2.23. The company noted that thedeteriorated global economic conditions during the quarter were wellbeyond its own expectations and the holiday shopping season was worsethan anticipated. It now expects further uncertainty about futuremarket conditions and consumer spending patterns. Foreign currencytranslation is expected to negatively impact net sales by 5% to 7%versus the prior year. Estee Lauder shares are down almost 15% at$24.73, and its 52-week trading range is $24.24 to $54.75.

Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN) guided down numbers for itsDecember (Q2) down to $0.72 to $0.76 EPS. That is down from the $0.94First Call consensus. It also sees $365 to $370 million in revenues,also under the $424.5 estimate. For Fiscal-2009, the company sees$0.94 to $1.07 EPS rather than the $1.47 consensus. What isinteresting here is that this implies that close to half of its entireshortfall will have come from this last quarter period. Wall Streetdoesn’t believe the ladies here that are selling to Main Street. Thisstock is down nearly 30% at $8.20 this morning. Its "prior" 52-weektrading range was $10.55 to $21.79.

We have not heard from Bare Escentuals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE) in sometime. Its shares are down only 2% to $4.91 today. The difference hereis that the stock already went to hell in a hand basket as its 52-week tradingrange is $4.91 to $29.90. It looks like when women have to start chopping down on the expenses, maybe they don’t have to worry about "only buying natural products" if it comes down to "cheaper or nothing." History dictates that cheaper usually prevails over the "nothing" scenario.

We also haven’t heard from Perelman’s baby, Revlon Inc. (NYSE: REV). Its reverse stock split did rather well for a bit, but evenit has been cut by more than half. Shares are down less than 1% todayat $6.35, and its "revised" 52-week trading range after the reversestock split is $5.65 to $14.85.

The real question may be what is going on with Avon Products Inc.(NYSE: AVP). We saw estimates cut at BMO today and saw Citi trimestimates last week. We have not heard a peep from the company ina while. Its stock is falling as though the company is about to enterthe confession parade. Shares are down more than 7% at $20.32 today,and its 52-week trading range is $17.45 to $45.34. It is still thelargest of the cosmetics pure-plays as its market cap is $8.7 billion.

The good news is that most of the cosmetics leaders are profitable. But they are not quite as recession-proof as many husbands might suspect.

Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2009

Posted in Apparel, Consumer Goods, Earnings Warning Tagged: AVP, BARE, EL, RDEN, REV

The 52-Week Low Club (CTV)(EK)(PWAV)(BARE)

247wallst — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:47:43 +0000

Commscope (CTV) Downgraded by Baird. Drops to $14.55 from 52-week high of $56.50.

Eastman Kodak (EK) Weak forecast. Sells down to $8.94 from 52-week high of $29.08.

Powerwave (PWAV) Poor earnings and downgrade. The daily double. Plunges to $.78 from 52-week high of $5.52.

Bare Escentuals (BARE) Downgraded after missing earnings estimates.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted in HI/LOW Tagged: BARE, CTV, EK, PWAV

The 52-Week Low Club 7/31/2008 (DLX)(UMC)(BA)(AKAM)(HOLX)(BARE)

247wallst — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:02:44 +0000

Deluxe Corporation (DLX) Drops 2008 outlook and pays the price. Falls to $14 from 52-week high of $40.86.

United Microelectronics (UMC) Fails with weak results and analyst upgrade. Sells off to $2.53 from 52-week high of $4.48

Boeing (BA) Concerns about plane orders as airline industry falls apart. Down to $61.06 from 52-week high of $107.15

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Poor outlook for balance of the year. Sells off to $22.69 from 52-week high of $41.45.

Hologic (HOLX) Lowers sales forecasts. Dips to $18.18 from 52-week high of $36.44

Bare Essentials (BARE) Analyst downgrade. Plunges to $11.40 from 52-week high of $29.90

Douglas A. McIntyre

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AIG, BARE, CWST, DNA, GILD, MHS, SLAB, TKLC, UBS, WCA)

247wallst — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 06:11:02 +0000

These are ten of the analyst calls we are seeing early this Thursday morning in early bird pre-market trading hours:

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ: BARE) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
Casella Waste (NASDAQ: CWST) raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Genentech (NYSE: DNA) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) Cut to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Silicon Laboratories (NASDAQ: SLAB) Raised to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR.
Tekelec (NASDAQ: TKLC) Cut to Equal-weight from Overweight at Lehman Brothers.
UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
WCA Waste (NYSE: WCA) Cut To Underweight From Neutral By JP Morgan.

Jon C. Ogg
June 19, 2008

Goldman Sachs Changes Consumer Products Coverage (AVP, CL, BARE, PG, KMB)

247wallst — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:21:43 +0000

Goldman Sachs has made some changes in coverage to its consumer products universe.

The bulge bracket brokerage firm favors Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) and Colgate-Polmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) and gave both companies some increased earnings target estimates for both this year and next, while making downgrades and some estimate cuts elsewhere in the household consumer products sector.

The brokerage firm has transitioned a Neutral rating down to a "Sell" rating on Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB). Also, both Bare Escentuals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE) and Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSEL PG) were downgraded from Buy ratings down to "Neutral" ratings.

This was a coverage transition in an analysts this morning at Goldman Sachs, with Andrew Sawyer assuming US Household Products coverage from Amy Chasen.

Jon C. Ogg
April 9, 2008

Jon Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter. He can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Lazard Notes Bare Escentuals As Recession-Resistant (BARE)

247wallst — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 12:31:03 +0000

Bare Escentuals, Inc. (NASDAQ: BARE) may be one sweet spot that is at least partially immune from the ups and downs of consumer spending. Today we are getting word out of Lazard Capital Markets that its analyst Jacklyn Rider, its Healthy Lifestyles analyst, is reiterating her Buy rating on Bare Escentuals with a $27.00 target as she feels the growth story is unchanged. This is fairly new coverage from Lazard Capital Markets as it appears the firm initiated it with a Buy rating earlier this month.

This call is after the company’s management presented at the ICR Xchange conference in California last week to a standing-room only crowd. The company reiterated its long-term growth opportunities to acquire customers, cross-sell products, and expand its points of distribution and international business.

Some of the points noted was a back to basics approach for new products and this note even discusses a recession-resistant product line that "is less sensitive to economic factors and that women will give up other discretionary items before makeup." Ms. Rider also noted that channel checks indicate that customer demand and enthusiasm for Bare Escentuals’ products have not seen any slowdown.

Lazard is maintaining its earnings estimates of $0.93 for 2007, $1.18 for 2008, and $1.50 for 2009. The $27 price target is based upon a 18X Lazard’s above consensus 2009 estimate, a discount to two-year earnings growth, and under the low-end of its historical earnings multiple.

The company designs and sells premium make-up for women with an all-natural and additive-free product line. We also believe this make-up aspect of the business is at least more recession-resistant than many other businesses (particularly compared to apparel or other discretionary spending), particularly in light of the fact that the company has an all-natural and irritant-free formula.

BARE shares are up 1.8% today at $20.33 right after noon, and the 52-week trading range $19.25 to $43.22 after coming public at higher prices in late-2006.

Jon C. Ogg
January 22, 2008

The 52-Week Low Club (MOT)(AMD)(S)(C)

247wallst — Tue, 27 Nov 2007 16:01:25 +0000

AMD (AMD) Downgrade. Prospects seen as dim for next few months. Drops to $9.80 from 52-week high of $23.

Motorola (MOT) Verizon Wireless opening its system? No other news. Falls to $14.87 fro 52-week high of $22.55.

Sprint (S) Competitor Verizon Wireless did open its system. Could be competitive advantage over Sprint. Drops to $14.22 from 52-week high of $23.42.

Citigroup (C) New Abu Dhabi investment of $7.5 billion come with an 11% junk level coupon. Shares off to $29.60 from 52-week high of $57.

Arbitron (ARB) Delays launch of its radio ratings system. Down to $34.81 from 52-week of $55.63.

Bearingpoint (BE) Not much news. Stock seems to keep falling. Drops to $3.06 from 52-week high $8.63.

Bare Escentuals (BARE) President resigns. Down to $19.83 from 52-week high of $43.22.

Douglas A. McIntyre