Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) Raised target to $85 from $80 at Canaccord.
BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.
Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN) Raised to Buy at ThinkEquity.
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) Cut to Neutral at Susquehanna.
The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) Started as Buy at Morgan Joseph.
Zoltek Companies Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) Started as Hold at Needham.

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JON C. OGG

We have details on each with added color, opinion, possible price reaction, and related news and background data.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit 52-week highs and all-time highs on Friday.  Stocks that hit new highs (or which hit new lows) rarely do it just once.  It is the extreme momentum.  But there are two big issues here to consider for traders.  First is that its market cap of now almost $200 billion puts it as one of the 5 largest companies in America and the mega-cap status may get in the way of its ability to grow indefinitely.  The second issue is that options trading has exploded as traders are looking for a way to get upside exposure on the cheap.  Friday’s fully leveraged options trading was effectively another 50% of the stock volume depending upon your treatment of speculative stock options versus the shares of stock traded.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) has March 12 (Friday) as its PDUFA date for an FDA panel to issue a recommendation on Byetta as the the first once a week treatment for Type II diabetes.  Analysts are mixed on the stock with BMO cutting its rating last week, but there were two positive calls from Credit Suisse and Jesup & Lamont. The open interest of stock options is also large enough that the $20 synthetic options straddle would imply that shares have to rise above $24.70 or drop below $15.30 to be profitable.  Byetta is already sold with Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY), and Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) provides the technology that makes Byetta last longer in the delivery mechanism for a once per week use.  Open interest in the Alkermes options is elevated but not astronomical.  There is a risk here… some feel the FDA will delay this recommendation with a request for more side effect data.

H&R Block Inc. (NYSE: HRB) is set to report earnings Monday.  The tax filer had already issued an earnings warning based on so many fewer tax returns that will be filed due to unemployment and underemployment.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.15 EPS and $949.55 million for the last quarter, but the coming quarter we are in now has estimates of $$2.13 EPS on $2.47 billion in revenues.  The options open interest is surprisingly tiny considering that this one dropped from almost $20 to under $16 when it guided earnings lower two weeks ago.

Patriot Coal Corporation (NYSE: PCX) saw yet another big price spike on Friday, just of about 13.5% to $21.67.  The reason being the continued chatter and talk of a Massey (MEE) buyout as well as hopes for continued higher prices-paid for coal to make steel.  While we have some pause for concern and while it did temporarily shut its federal mine, the options trading has been very elevated as well in just the March expiration month which means that M&A speculators are betting a deal comes within the next two weeks.  Patriot is one of the newest public coal players as it only came public in late 2007, and it saw a triple in the stock in its first few months due to the commodity and energy bubble of 2008.  If Massey is really buying the company, its shares traded higher as well by 6% Friday.  But there is an issue.  Patriot shot up like a Patriot missile from $17 to almost $22 this last week, so if no deal is announced on Monday or Tuesday then we expect at least some profit taking.

Tivo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is up for earnings Monday and that is just on the heels of it winning an intellectual property war with Dish Network.  TiVo literally soared from about $10 to end the week at $17.50.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.12 EPS on $47.45 million in revenues.  The market cap based on its win is now $1.9 billion, so we’ll just have to wait and see what the company says in addition to earnings about what will come from its recent win.  Based on the new win, the earnings report is likely not important in comparison to the money coming its way.  TiVo’s open interest for March options is elevated, and April is now higher than normal.

This weekend’s Barron’s was littered with analysis and picks around telecom.  BCE, Inc. (NYSE: BCE) was given a very positive feature article in Barron’s for having better income growth with more room for upside than AT&T and Verizon in the U.S.  Also touted was Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (NYSE: MBT) in Russia for its return to growth and for its ability to see continued gains after it underperformed the local stock exchange and an analyst calling for the stock to double in five years.  Our call on price impact: On BCE, the tout may generate a 1% or so increase from the $29.51 close; On MBT, the tout may generate up to a 3% increase on top of Friday’s 2.25% gain to $54.50.  QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) was given a lightly defended article about its recent woes with the blame game after its poor earnings being about the mix.  Due to the big bounce we saw last week on its dividend and share buyback raise, it is possible that QCOM sees another 1.5% gain or so on a static basis.

Zanett, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZANE) had an absolutely crazy week.  Its ‘ZANE’ ticker should give this one the new name “Zaney” for traders.  It was just on Wednesday that it warned about expecting to receive a NASDAQ delisting notice.  But then on Thursday the company announced that “business is booming” as it set a record for contracts closed in the months of January and February 2010 with over $12 million dollars in new business put on the books from 42 different customers.  This was a $0.38 stock that is micro-cap and used to sometimes even skip trading days because no volume was there in shares.  Yet is closed up exponentially at $2.12 on 8.09 million shares Thursday, only to be followed by an equally zany Friday.  Friday’s high was $3.11 and share volume was 8.25 million shares… and its close was $1.93.  Call it zany or crazy, but the day traders and speculative penny stock players are all over this one and trading volume here is going to be considerably elevated to its past.

The last issue we want to watch this week is that the valuations are changing somewhat.  For starters, this is the first anniversary of the selling apex of March 2009 that then became the biggest bull market seen since the late 1990′s.  We have shown how the 52-week trading ranges are about to at least normalize and look more rational in the next month or so without so many stocks being up exponentially from their 52-week lows.  We saw this in major tech shares with many normalizations coming, and then the money center bank changes will start to look far more normalized.

A last valuation trend is one that came in the world of biotech and biohealth stocks.  There are suddenly many more biotech and biohealth stocks which have crossed into the $1 billion market capitalization level and higher.  The long and short of it is that this now makes the ‘investable universe of’ those stocks much larger for institutions.

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JON C. OGG

BCE (BCE) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Corning (GLW) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
FLIR Systems (FLIR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Government Properties Income Trust (GOV) Cut to Underperform at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Goodrich Corp. (GR) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

JON C. OGG

BCE (BCE) Started as Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
Google (GOOG) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
IAC/Interactive (IACI) Raised to Buy at Canaccord.
Symantec (SYMC) Started as Buy at Auriga.
ValueClick (VCLK) Raised to Buy from Sell at Canaccord.
Carlisle Companies (CSL) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc.
CNOOC (CEO) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Janus (JNS) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
McAfee (MFE) STarted as Sell at Auriga.
SolarFun (SOLF) Cut to Sell at Collins Stewart, but was also raised to Hold from Sell at Canaccord.

Jon C. Ogg
March 26, 2009

• Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
• Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
• BCE (NYSE: BCE) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotia.
• Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) Raised to Outperform at Wachovia.
• PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Town Sports International (NASDAQ: CLUB) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Varian Medical Systems (NYSE: VAR) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Yamana (NYSE: AUY) Cut to Buy at TD.

Jon C. Ogg
January 5, 2009

• ActivIdentity (NASDAQ: ACTI) Started as Buy at Stanford Group.
• BCE (NYSE:BCE) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) Raised to Buy at UBS.
• Mylan (NYSE:MYL) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
• Teva (NASDAQ: TEVA) Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
• American Express (NYSE:AXP) Started as Reduce at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
• Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
• Gibralter (NASDAQ: ROCK) Cut to Sell at Piper Jaffray.
• Synovus Financial (NYSE:SNV) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Turkcell (NYSE:TKC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
December 17, 2008

Reuters reports that the Bank of America (BAC) will cut as many as 35,000 jobs,

Reuters writes that with higher jobless rates, fewer people are missing work, even if they are unhappy with their jobs.

Reuters reports that the Treasury sees the $700 billion bailout fund as capital for the financial sector and not for any other part of the economy.

Reuters reports that KB Toys filed for Chapter 11.

Reuters reports that the solvency report on BCE is a hot topic among M&A executives.

Reuters writes that the Lehman trustee will seek a probe of the firm’s collapse.

Reuters reports that private banks are moving offshore to take advantage of secrecy laws.

Reuters reports that US video game sales were up 10%.

Reuters reports that United Technologies (UTX) profits may be flat next year.

The Wall Street Journal reports that famous Wall St. broker Bernard L. Madoff was accused of fraud.

The Wall Street Journal reports that its survey of economists says the recession would be deeper than expected because of the consumer credit crisis.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Nortel (NT) may face a delisting from the NYSE.

The Wall Street Journal reports that P&G (PG) may lower its sales outlook.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the ex-CEO of Intel (INTC) says the company should make advanced batteries for cars.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) plans a change in strategic direction and more layoffs.

The Wall Street Journal reports that PC company Lenovo is looking for acquisition.

The Wall Street Journal writes that bank use of its credit facility has pushed assets at the Fed to over $2 trillion.

The Wall Street Journal reports that data from China is sparking a deflation concern.

The Wall Street Journal writes that retail data to be released by the Census Bureau may be extremely bad.

The Wall Street Journal reports that several large insurance firms which pay very low taxes want access to the bailout fund.

The Wall Street Journal reports that mortgage rates hit a four year low at 5.47%.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the price of oil rose 10% on concerns about OPEC cuts.

The Wall Street Journal writes that retailers are facing competition from liquidation sales of their rivals.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Boeing (BA) is shaking up management after another delay of its 787.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Costco (COST) warned about sales weakness.

The New York Times reports that auto suppliers are anxious about the collapse of GM (GM) and Chrysler.

The New York Times reports that "Companies whose pension funds suffered big losses this year will not have to replenish the money quickly under a relief measure that flew through the Senate."

The New York Times reports that many Japanese companies are still investing in themselves.

The New York Times reports that oil demand was off for the first time since 1983.

The New York Times reports that the US trade deficit grew in October on a drop in exports.

The FT reports that US bank shares plunged on remarks from JP Morgan’s (JPM) CEO that more trouble is still ahead.

The FT reports that California’s debt was downgraded.

The FT reports that the collapse of the BCE is fueling concerns about the future of private equity.

Bloomberg reports that write-downs at UK financial firm HBOS increased to $7.5 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

BCE would be burdened with an additional $32-billionin debt after the leveraged buyout transaction.  Auditor KPMG has determined that BCE would not meet the deal’s solvency conditions if the transaction goes through.  The closing date is expected to be December 11.

BCE has said that it disagrees with the notion and the acquisitiongroup called BCE Acquisition said that it will continue to fulfill itsdeal pact obligations.  Of course, it also noted that solvency is acondition that has to be met for closing.  It said it is working withBCE to take the required actions.

We have wondered if the capital market malaise has been an issue forthe giant buyout because you know the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan hasnot been immune to the current environment.  It looks like the currentstructure of BCE is not the issue.  It seems that it is all of theadd-on debt that has created this concerns about solvency.

The good news is that it has a couple weeks to get everything in line.The bad news is that this puts the deal at risk or at least in asituation where some renegotiation and delays come back into play.  Or the bad news can go to the extreme where BCE has to stay public and where its share price has to reflect the new current stock and bond market conditions.

After all of the infighting between the BCE debtholders and thosewanting the merger to go through, this will end up being one of thelongest sagas of all time in the land of the giant going-privatetransactions.

BCE is being crushed pre-market.  Its shares are down a sharp 35% at$19.70 pre-market on more than 3 million shares.  Its 52-week tradingrange was $25.00 to $40.44. 

Jon C. Ogg
November 26, 2008

Reuters writes that United (UAUA) will lay-off 950 pilots.

Reuters reports that GM (GM) will cut truck output and offer interest free financing on most models.

Reuters reports that UPS (UPS) cuts its earnings outlook on higher gas prices.

Reuters reports that Paulson has suggested oil producing nations up their output.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Google (GOOG) will offer a new product which measures web traffic to specific sites.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP (BHP) won an 85% increase in the benchmark price for iron ore in China.

The Wall Street Journal writes that coal producers are having trouble meeting demand.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Huntsman (HUN) has sued Apollo over its withdrawal from a buy-out.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Nokia (NOK) will lift its stake in major phone software firm Symbian.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Ticketmaster will pay IAC (IACI) $750 million before it is spun-off.

The New York Times writes that NYSE Euronext (NYX) will by 25% of the Doha Securities Market i Qatar.

The New York Times writes that Google (GOOG) data will be used in a Florida trial to argue that explicit material doesn’t violate community values.

The New York Times writes that Google News has experienced a slowing of its traffic.

The New York Times writes that several hundred US companies got a total $265 billion for bringing captial overseas back into the US.

The New York Times writes that ad sales at cable channels are growing faster than those on broadcast TV.

The New York Times writes that the NYT.com website would merge with it sister site for the International Herald Tribune.

The FT writes that banks was more concessions in the BCE (BCE) buy-out.

Bloomberg writes that Toyota (TM) may cut its 2008 sales goals.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters writes that InBav may start Anheuher-Busch (BUD) takeover talks this week.

Reuters writes that Asian central banks are propping up their currencies.

Reuters writes that the CEO of HSBC (HBC) is calling for higher interest rates to fight inflation.

Reuters writest that companies with board members connected to a winning US political party do well after an election.

The Wall Street Journal writes that LG is looking at the GE (GE) appliance business.

The Wall Street Journal writes that home sales are improving in some markets where foreclosures have deeply depressed housing prices.

The Wall Street Journal reports that high prices are improving earnings at fertilizer companies.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the CEO of Vodafone (VOD) will step down after five years.

The Wall Street Journal writes that movie producers are taking less risk by not making their own movies. They also get less reward.

The Wall Street Journal writes that 402 companies had trouble with auction rate securities in the first quarter.

The Wall Street Journal writes that China’s nearly $75 billion national social-security fund will begin making private equity investments.

The Wall Street Journal writes that a big battle in graphics chps is beginning with Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Intel (INTC) at the heart of the competition.

The New York Times writes that the auto industry is feeling the pain of tight credit.

The New York Times reports that high fuel prices are doing severe damage to the trucking industry

The New York Times writes that small businesses are still selling but at a deep discount.

The FT writes that Greenspan says the US is still likely to have a recession.

The FT reports that BCE (BCE) will be allowed to block a ruling which blocked its LBO plans

The FT reports that Web 2.0 firms are not making any money.

Douglas A. McIntyre