Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) Started as Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) Reiterated Buy with $87 target at Argus.
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD) Started as Neutral at UBS.
Genesco Inc. (NYSE: GCO) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) Raised to Outperform at RBC.
Hibbett Sporting Goods (NASDAQ: HIBB) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Ingram Micro, Inc. (NYSE: IM) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: KOG) Reiterated Outperform and raised target to $11 at Credit Suisse.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) maintained Sell but cut target to $57 at Canaccord Genuity.
Newpark Resources (NYSE: NR) Started as Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) Started as Outperform at Scotia.
Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Spectrum Brands Inc (NYSE: SPB) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

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Amerisafe, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Maintained Outperform but cut target to $420 at Oppenheimer; Maintained Outperform; Zacks cautious on iPad3 launch.
Aruba Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARUN) Started as Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) Reiterated Buy and Raised target to $96 at Argus.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Raised to Buy with $129 target at Deutsche Bank.
Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) Reiterated Buy and $26 target at Argus; Cut estimates at BofA/ML.
Forest Oil Corporation (NYSE: FST) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL) Cut to Strong Sell at S&P Equity Research (late-Monday).
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Maintained Buy but cut estimates at BofA/ML.
Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) rating cut to ‘B’ and outlook negative at Fitch.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Raised to Hold at Wunderlich.
SurModics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX) Maintained Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNCR) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Wendy’s/Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE: WEN) Raised to Hold at Argus.

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JON C. OGG

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) was previously a new position a quarter ago but this quarter was listed as 1,793,915 shares and is SLIGHTLY SMALLER than the 1,992,759 shares at the last report.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER but lower than the past.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is still just 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1.74 million, SAME AS BEFORE after having decreased from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.
Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) was kept at 636,600 shares as the same as last quarter but this is way down from over 7.78 million more a year ago.

Many Changes…

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) used to be 5 million shares, but Buffett SOLD ALL BOFA SHARES.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) used to be 1.889 million shares, but BUFFETT SOLD ALL B&D SHARES.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) was already a lower position at 186,897 shares down from 12 million before, BUT BUFFETT SOLD ALL REMAINING SHARES.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) had already been lowered to 3.91+ million shares, but BUFFETT SOLD ALL FISERV SHARES.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS J to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

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JON C. OGG

These positions include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX), Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV), Nalco Holding Company (NYSE: NLC), Torchmark Corporation (NYSE: TMK), and USG Corporation (NYSE: USG).  A couple of these stocks were above their implied target prices, but some only had upside of 1% to 3%. This compares to Buffett’s largest implied upside picks which had more than a 10% hurdle.

We used the closing price as of  December 6 for the analysis.  We gave a percentage upside based on how much the stocks had to move to reach the Thomson Reuters consensus price target for a year from now.  We reviewed the prospects of each company which includes a brief description of the firms, how the shares have performed versus a 52-week range, and analyzed the dividend yields of each corporation.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed Monday at $64.18, above the oil giant’s consensus price target of $62.81.  Buffett kept his stake in the last quarter unchanged but that is after cutting his position over the past several quarters. He has indicated he might sell the stock for tax purposes but he has retained a  modest ownership position.  Conoco at least offers a 3.4% dividend yield.  Buffett admitted that the timing of this investment was wrong, but the good news is that shares are up more than 50% from the lows in 2009.

Costco Wholesale Corporation’s (NASDAQ: COST) stock is one of the few that has consistently risen lately.  It almost always trades at a premium over its peers, but that has not undermined its valuation.  After a $69.19 close on Monday, shares hit a 52-week high of $69.41.  Does it matter then that analysts have a consensus price target of $68.61 a year out?  The dividend yield here is only 1.2%. It is worth noting that shares peaked just above of $70.00 in late-2007 and in early 2008 .

Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX) is the first of several stocks that still have upside but that is so small that it is hardly worth mentioning.  Monday’s close for BD was $80.85, and its 52-week trading range is $66.47 to $81.65.  The consensus price target for one-year out is $82.23.  That implies an upside of only 1.7%, which is below its 2% dividend.  The shares still managed to challenge 52-week highs recently. The 52-week trading range is $66.47 to $81.65.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp.n (NYSE: BK) is a NEW POSITION at 1,992,759 shares.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER after having seen more than 1 position raise before then.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a LOWER POSITION and almost entirely eliminated as the report lists only 186,897 shares down from 12 million before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, SAME AS LAST QUARTER after having cut and cut the stake.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is already a LOWER POSITION at 3.91+ million shares, down from a previously new position of 4.4 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1.74 million, SAME AS BEFORE after having decreased from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.

Buffett listed no shares of Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX), which had been 7,725,900 shares. Consider Carmax a SOLD POSITION.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is NOT LISTED and the word is out that Goldman Sachs has been hung up from being able to pay Buffett back because of the rules governing TARP banks and the debt repayments or dividend payments.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS H to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

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JON C. OGG

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME AS last quarter.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, UP FROM 1.744 million shares last quarter and was a raised position last quarter too from 1.5 million shares before and versus 1.2 million before that.
Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is 7,725,900, SAME AS BEFORE; had been reduced from 8 million shares the prior quarter and versus 9 million shares a quarter before that.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, SAME AS before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME AS before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, A LOWER STAKE than the prior 34.179 million shares and yet another cut from 37.7 million two quarters ago and 57.43 million and 62.485 million before that.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter but that is after it had been lowered from 5.254 million before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME AS before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is a NEW POSITION of 4.4 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1,740,231 SHARES; SAME as before, but a decrease from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME AS before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME AS before.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS H to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is NOT LISTED but that is because it is a preferred stock with warrants. Buffett says he is holding and still has it.

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JON C. OGG

We have provided detail on what to watch for, expected moves, and added color on each where applicable.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) closed up 1.6% at $51.10, American Public Education Inc. (NASDAQ: APEI) closed up 2.9% at $47.48, and Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO) closed up 2.5% at $11.93 all on positive sector development chatter.  Reports were out Friday that there will be a delay to a pending government measure that would penalize schools for graduating students with high debt-to-income ratios.  If that is the case, then these stocks could recover far more than 2% as a group.

Banco Santander SA (NYSE: STD) closed up 6.5% on Friday based on the notion that the bank’s CEO said at the annual meeting that he still expects to have a similar net profit for 2010 as it did in 2009 when it posted a profit of about 8.89 billion e[uros.  This was a runner-up bank on our list of the year’s worst performing ADRs as we were looking for grossly oversold opportunities in Europe.

Becton Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX), a recently added Buffett holding, was given a positive article in Barron’s.  The maker of syringes was noted as “Could Give Investors a Shot in the Arm” as it is poised for stronger growth than what estimates have factored in based upon innovative products. Barron’s said “The stock may jump 40%” and based upon a -0.1% day on Friday at $69.69 with a 52-week range of $63.41 to $80.56, this could be up about 4% or so on Monday if the market is healthy.

Best Buy Co Inc. (NYSE: BBY) is reporting earnings on Tuesday morning and Thomson Reuters sees estimates at $0.50 EPS and $10.94 billion in revenues.  This is going to be one of the first companies giving us a real outlook (hopefully) on whether consumer spending in electronics is expected to hold up through summer and into later in 2010.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) is at it, again.  It isn’t the one that got away, but the one that never goes away. Shares closed up again on Friday, but it is still hard to ignore those options trades this last week that showed options bets were being made for either a possible bankruptcy or an outright implosion beyond what has already been seen as its stock had been down by more than half.  CEO Hayward is due to testify this week and we have Monday as the day the expected D-day… “Dividend Decision Day.”

Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC) already closed up big in percentages with a 24% gain to $0.45 Friday on above-normal trading volume, and this is a couple week’s after diluting shareholder value.  Its exploratory analysis of trial data of Pixuvri in those with relapsed or refractory aggressive non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma was said to show that patients who experienced complete responses to the drug had a 63% chance of being alive at 24 months versus only a 20% chance in patients treated with other drugs.  The speculative (and questionable for many) company also said that the study showed a 21% improvement in overall survival rates in other patients.  With a $0.12 to $1.90 range of the last 52-week period, this has a chance for a trader-interest revival after the penny stock imploded earlier this year.

FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) is due for earnings on Wednesday of the coming week.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.32 EPS on $9.04 billion in revenues.  The company will have some currency exposures, but it will be interesting to see if it expects the recent economic woes in Europe to slow down some of its 2010 growth expectations. At $80.63, its 52-week range is $49.76 to $97.75.  After just hiking its dividend, we think there is much more room for dividend hikes down the road as its yield is paltry compared to rival United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS).

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) closed at $120.69 on Friday after putting in a new 52-week high intra-day of $121.55 and it closed out the week with almost an $11.00 gain.  The video rental subscribing service came in as the #1 pole position stock on the IBD 100 this weekend of stocks with bullish charts.  IBD said that the video renter is expected to up its EPS 21% in Q2, which would be the lowest in about 10 quarters.

Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) may be back as a “Small-cap trader-go-to momentum player” after Friday’s news that  its HyperCloud memory module was selected to run on Viglen servers for high-performance computing applications.  Shares closed up 29% at $2.45 and shares rose more than 6% to $2.61 in the after-hours session on more than 100,000 extra shares traded.  With a 52-week range of $0.30 to $7.98 and with shares having been so parabolic before, the ‘only’ 2.2 million shares on Friday could mean more buyers and sellers start their war next week based on the notion that many will have missed the news and move entirely.

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOR) was hit in the after-hours session on Friday and will of course be one to watch on Monday morning and beyond.  The FDA extended out its date to approve the injectable drug Acthar for infantile spasms, which was listed as being to review the information on the labeling and potential post-approval commitments. This closed up only 0.1% at $10.19 on Friday, but shares fell a sharp 8.2% to $9.35 on over 115,000 shares in the after-hours session on Friday after the news broke.

Rosetta Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSE) already had a good week a week after Stifel Nicolaus raised its rating to BUY with a $35 Price Target.  Now this weekend, Barron’s also said the stock looks like a Buy as the little driller “has inspired a gusher of optimism among some investors, as it drills in shale areas. One bull sees the stock doubling if its most important energy plays pan out.”  At $25.23, it has already gained handily as the 52-week range for the independent oil and gas company is $7.08 to $26.48.  With the notion of a double being hinted at, this could by up at least 4% or 5% on Monday in a market-neutral scenario and could conceivably open up at new 52-week highs.

Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN) was one of our recent “stocks which could double” and one of the reasons was the potential for further sector consolidation.  Shares closed up over 7% on Friday after Trian disclosed a verbal inquiry regarding a possible takeover of the combined fast food chains.  While there is n clue about who or what Nelson Peltz is getting inquiries from or how he will work with them, Wend’s/Arby’s is now in the possible M&A targets.  At $4.65, its 52-week range is $3.55 to $5.55.

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JON C. OGG

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME as last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME as last quarter.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.744 million shares, a RAISED POSITION again versus its raised to 1.5 million shares last quarter; was only 1.2 million before that.
Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is7.725 million shares, A DECREASED POSITION versus 8 million shares last quarter and versus 9 million shares a quarter before that.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME as before.
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, SAME as before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME as before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is 34.179 million shares; that is ANOTHER DECREASE from 37.7 million last quarter, was 57.43 million shares before and down from 62.485 million at the end of June.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, a DECREASE from 5.254 million before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; that is the SAME as before but less than  1.276 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1,740,231 SHARES; this is a DECREASE from 2.202 million shares last quarter and down from 3.447 million before then.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME as before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is NOT LISTED but that is because it is a preferred stock with warrants. Buffett says he is holding and still has it.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME as before.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS H to R

BUFFETT HOLDINGS S to Z

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JON C. OGG

The total NYSE short interest rose by 3.78% to 14,002,613,200 shares versus 13,492,652,518 shares in the period ending January 29, 2010.  NASDAQ short interest was up 4.75% to 7,019,657,092 shares versus 6,701,137,021 shares ending January 29, 2010.  It turns out that the best against Warren Buffett’s core holdings were frequently far higher than these short interest averages.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) was 14,752 shares, up 98% from 7,452 shares;
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) was 29,538,177 shares, up 101% from 14,698,348 shares.

The bets against Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway were likely left over arbitrage plays or more importantly were index addition bets that the stock would drop after it was added to the S&P 500 index.  We took a look here at the few first that actually saw a decrease in the short selling.  These are Buffett stocks which saw traders making lower bets against his portfolio stocks as follows:

• Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) was a smaller position as he cut the stock holdings but short sellers couldn’t take the gains in the stock.  Short interest was 29,577,885, down by -3.6% vs 30,669,973
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is a huge warrant and preferred position but not a common stock.  Turns out that short sellers lightened up the bets against Blankfein and friends.  This was 8,283,268 shares, down by -4.8% vs. 8,696,610
• Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) 10,222,455, -7.5% vs. 11,046,783
• Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) 13,467,676, down by -7.8% vs. 14,611,297
• Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) was again decreased by Buffett, but short sellers lightened up here despite its changed model.  This was listed as 31,252,489, down -4.8% vs. 32,815,912
• Nalco Holding (NYSE: NLC) 2,861,748 was down -27% vs. 3,918,130
• Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) was down 3% at 8,115,812 vs 8,364,309
• Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) 1,417,016 down -27.8% vs 1,962,986
• Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) is a decreased position of Buffett’s and that was shorted less at 31,858,590, down -5.5% vs 33,707,880.
• Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) 4,312,561 was -2.3% vs. 4,414,462
• Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) is one that Buffett has steadily been selling, but short sellers lightened up their bets against this stock. This was 6,306,073 shares short, down by -19.2% vs 7,800,022

This is the group where we saw increased bets against Buffett’s stocks.  Some positions were changed by Buffett as well, and some bets were with Buffett’s directional change while others were against it.  This large list is as follows:

• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 344,401,459 was up 5.4% from 326,896,224
• Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) was one Buffett raised his position in but shorts increased their bets against Buffett’s bet.  This was 3,598,302 shares, up 12.6% from 3,195,720
• Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) was a decreased position for Buffett and short sellers increased their bets against it.  This was 14,238,109 shares short, up 6.6% vs. 13,361,299
• Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) 17,941,700, up 15.9% from 15,469,000
• Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 48,314,070, up 13.3% from 42,632,950
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) was cut in Buffett holdings and it saw a rise in short selling to 15,031,200, up 18.2% from 12,714,800  shares.
• Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 11,281,400 up 11.14% vs. 10,150,700
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) was slightly cut by Buffett and shorts increased their anti-oil bets to 80,161,907 shares, up 16.7% from 68,697,731
• General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 74,962,422, up 13.2% from 66,249,225
• GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 3,676,415, up 11.2% from 3,306,299
• Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) 33,721,859, up 17.3% from 28,737,051
• Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) was a stock Buffett raised his stake in, yet shorts bet against it with 15,134,029 shares short.  That is up 6.7% from 14,180,881 shares.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was another stock Buffett cut his stake in and the shorts increased their bets against it; 18,650,524 shares, up 13.7% from 16,408,634
• Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) 52,715,903, up 34.4% from 39,227,946
• M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) 14,557,744, up 0.1% from 14,549,915
• Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) was a smaller Buffett position, and there was a big short interest gain as a bet against P&G.  This was 29,450,930 shares, up 21.2% from 24,302,413 shares.
• Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) was a raised holding of Buffett in his chase after Bill Gates, but shorts bet harder against the garbage men here.  This was 1,806,220 shares short, a 8.3% gain versus 1,667,190.
• Travelers Cos (NYSE: TRV) 6,997,575, up 17.6% versus 5,948,204… but just tiny Buffett holding.
• USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 14,808,631, up 4.9% versus 14,122,777 shares
• United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) was a decreased holding again from Buffett and shorts increased their short selling; 16,939,025 shares, up 39.2% from 12,169,639
• United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 11,663,165, up 4.5% vs. 11,159,600
• Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) 178,636, up 5.9% from 168,638
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was an increased position again for Buffett, but short sellers increased their bets against the company.  It saw 49,549,878 shares short, up 12.5% from 44,048,977

Then there is the group that was effectively unchanged in short sales from the whole market in Buffett holdings.  These are the stock holdings which saw an increase or decrease of 2.0% or less.  These are as follows:

• American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) 13,443,984, up 1.4% from 13,254,289
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 21,200,285, up 0.4% from 21,119,310
• Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5,008,953, down only -0.6% vs. 5,039,052

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JON C. OGG

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI), Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), United Health Group (NYSE: UNH), Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI), Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM), Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), and NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) were most of the changed positions at Berkshire Hathaway.  We have given color on each and predictions of which stocks Buffett will probably add to or cut further.

Media outlets spent much time discussing the drop of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) down to about 37.7 million shares.  Buffett telegraphed last year that he made a mistake and that he was going to use these shares as an offset.  The holding was 57.43 million shares a quarter before and down from 62.485 million at the end of June.  That is a position in steady decline.  But the surprise was in Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM).  When it first appeared a quarter ago it was 1.276 million shares, yet the new position was a mere 421,800 shares most recently.  If Buffett wants a major position in big-oil, he needs to boosting that stake in ExxonMobil rather than cutting it.  Buffett was bottom-fishing in ConocoPhillips and he got the timing wrong.  In short, Buffett found out he was bottom-sniffing rather than bottom-fishing.

The surprise was in medical-related stocks.  He increased slightly the Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX) to 1.5 million shares from 1.2 million shares.  That is barely a $20 million change, but this is a medical devices and instruments company and was a new portfolio addition in 2009.  Over at Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Buffett’s position went down to over 27 million shares from over 36.9 million shares a quarter before.  As far as a bias here, it seems that J&J is creeping lower in the Buffett realm, but we’d look for additional positions in Becton if the stock does not go up too much.

Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) was a decreased holding of 2.202 million shares, down from 3.447 million last quarter.  No shock here, particularly since the stock has come roaring back.  Buffett has panned newspapers.  Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) was slashed  again to 31.8 million shares.  That is down from 39.2 million shares a quarter before and under the 48 million the quarter before that.  Our only surprise here is that Buffett still owns any of this one at all.  We think he is on his way to exiting completely, even if he will hold a small stake.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) got a small boost to over 39 million shares versus 37.8 million a quarter earlier, but this was well above the 19.9+ million shares two quarters ago.  If Buffett needs to hide money in a liquid instrument, this is perhaps one of the easiest spots to do it.  Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is a decreased position of about 87.5 million shares, down from 96.3 million.  P&G is considered one of the most stable names out there, but maybe Uncle Warren thinks it is fully valued.  P&G was actually a surprise to see it lower.

The obvious change is that Buffett is still lightening up against his health insurance stocks… These have enjoyed significant recoveries, but many still fear what Obamacare will do to these.  Buffett may have supported Obama in the election, but business is business.  United Health Group (NYSE: UNH) was cut to 1.175 million shares from 3.4 million shares a quarter ago and marks the third consecutive decline in holdings here.  Wellpoint Inc. (NYSE: WLP) was cut to 1.343 million shares from 3.394 million shares a quarter earlier and also marks three 3 consecutive quarters there.

Buffett made some changes in his bank holdings.  Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was an increased position to about 319.5 million shares versus 313.3 million shares a quarter ago, and that was also above the 302 million and the 290+ in each of the preceding quarters.  Sun Trust Bank (NYSE: STI) was where Buffett cut… almost 2.4 million shares, down from 3.079 million shares and down from 3.2+ million in each consecutive preceding quarter.  Buffett has said Wells Fargo is his favorite bank, so he doesn’t even really need SunTrust.  Buffett can keep adding to Wells Fargo.

Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) was a “buy more on sale” bet.  Most of Buffett’s holdings are not down as much from highs like this company is in business services for document storage and back-up.  The holding was effectively doubled to 7 million shares to worth more than $150 million today.  As far as whether Buffett will grow this, that probably depends upon price more than anything else.

Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is really no surprise at all that the position has been raised.  Bill Gates’ Cascade Holdings has taken a board seat and a large stake, and we know that Buffett will follow Bill Gates into any great investment.  Besides, garbage and waste removal companies enjoy significant barriers to entry and limited competition.  That is now 8.29 million shares after having been a new position in Q3-2009.  Our bet is that this position is even larger already or will be by the end of this quarter.

Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) were both eliminated.  It is surprising that these were both down late yesterday on the news.  It is also surprising that many major media outlets just said that Buffett dropped his stakes here.  Buffett already said last year after his whale of a deal for BNSF that he would dump his holdings in competing rail companies.  This should have been a more than known event. NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) was a bit of a surprise to be completely eliminated because it is a wholesale power generation company.  Berkshire held 7.2 million last quarter.  We always thought that Buffett was going to try to do a whale of a deal in the electric utility sector rather than in the rail sector, but maybe Buffett decided that the rail was a good enough utility for exposure there.  Rails are utilities if you gre up playing Monopoly.

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JON C. OGG