Posts for Ticker ‘BEAS’

Goldman Sachs Updates Oracle/BEA Targets, Issues Buy on Oracle (ORCL, BEAS)

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is being reinstated as a "Buy" rating in new coverage this morning at Goldman Sachs.  The firm notes that with macroeconomic concerns being front and center, shares of the enterprise software giant are down 18% so far in 2008. 

It also notes the forward EPS multiples being a mere 15.8 for 2008 and 12.2 for 2009.  Both multiples are under the industry average by about 20% and are also at a discount to the S&P.  Based on yesterday’s close, Goldman Sachs sees a 23% gain opportunity to its target.

With the acquisition of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), Goldman Sachs has issued the following metrics for forward years:

  • 2008 is $1.26 EPS, same as before;
  • 2009 is $1.47 EPS, up from $1.41 before;
  • 2010 is $1.63 EPS, up from $1.60 before.

Jon C. Ogg
March 6, 2008

Posted on: March 6, 2008 – 8:33 am in Analyst Calls, Software, ,

Icahn’s Top Holdings (APC, BEAS, BIIB, CSX, LEA, M, MOT, JCP, REGN, TIN, TWX, TWC, UNM, WMB)

Billionaire activist investor and financier Carl Icahn has released the total holdings in an SEC filing for the period end December 31, 2007 for  ICAHN CAPITAL, LP.

As Carl Icahn and his friends are multi-billionaires, we have eliminated the positions under $50 million since smaller postions are hardly worth his time and effort. The left column is the dollar amounts and the second number is the number of shares:

  • ANADARKO PETROLEUM (NYSE: APC) $970,600,000  14,775,468 shares
  • BEA SYSTEMS (NASDAQ: BEAS)  $654,176,000; 41,456,016 shares
  • BIOGEN IDEC (NASDAQ: BIIB)  $469,973,000; 8,256,723 shares
  • CSX CORP (NYSE: CSX) $128,422,000; 2,920,000
  • LEAR CORP (NYSE: LEA) 265,424,000; 9,595,954 shares
  • MACYS (NYSE: M)  $133,610,000; 5,164,660 shares
  • MOTOROLA (NYSE: MOT) $969,881,000; 60,466,400 shares
  • J.C.PENNEY (NYSE: JCP)  $183,274,000; 4,166,271 shares
  • REGENERON PHARMA (NASDAQ: REGN)  $60,568,000; 2,508,001 shares
  • TEMPLE INLAND (NYSE: TIN) $71,901,000; 3,448,488 shares
  • TIME WARNER CABLE (NYSE: TWC) $130,027,000; 4,711,128 shares
  • TIME WARNER INC (NYSE: TWX) $213,526,000; 12,933,159
  • UNUM GROUP (NYSE: UNM) $95,659,000; 4,020,960 shares
  • WILLIAMS COS INC (NYSE: WMB)  $173,201,000; 4,840,724 shares

Jon C. Ogg
February 14, 2008

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.  Join the 24/7 Wall St. open email distribution list to hear of spin-offs, emerging IPO, break-up, reorganization, and other special situation stocks.

Posted on: February 14, 2008 – 11:58 am in Activist Investor, Insider Activity, Mutual Funds, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Tech M&A And Global Results Shows Industry Has Life

A funny thing happened on the way to the tech collapse. It didn’t happen. The market may not have liked Intel’s (INTC) results, but for a company its size, it still posted impressive growth.

The Oracle (ORCL) purchase of BEA Systems (BEAS) is notable for the premium which was paid. If Oracle is still considered the "smart money" in tech, it is sending a signal that enterprise business is still growing.

Data released yesterday by IDC showed very strong growth for PC sales across the world in Q4 and remarkable good figures in the US. Dell (DELL) would appear to be on the mend. According to Reuters "Dell shipped 17.1 percent more PCs in the quarter than in the year-earlier period, for a total of 11.3 million units and 14.6 percent of the global PC market." In other words, the market is good enough for the weak to get a bit stronger.

Perhaps the best bell-weather of tech spending were results from huge enterprise software company SAP (SAP). When the company released results yesterday it said "Growth was broad-based across every major region, which means we are not on the edge of a global recession,"

If tech spending is strong, overall capital outlays at companies may not be contracting. That news would be a contrast to recent concerns that corporate spending may be weak.

The funeral for tech is notable for the fact that the body did not show up.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: January 17, 2008 – 3:48 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , ,

BEA Capitulates; Oracle Wins (BEAS, ORCL)

After essentially a near-decade of rumors, bids, rejections, and infighting, BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) is finally being acquired.  The company has capitulated and Larry Ellison’s empire is the winner.

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is acquiring the company for $19.375 per share entirely in cash of roughly $8.5 Billion (net of $7.2 Billion of BEA’s $1.3 Billion cash on hand).

The merger is set to close in mid-2008 and this is actually a definitive agreement that BEA Systems is capitulating to.

The merger is supposed to be accretive by $0.01 to $0.02 EPS on a non-GAAP basis in the first full year after this merger closes.

BEA has been under pressure of late after the company rejected the previous buyout attempt from oracle.  This $19.375 is actually a multi-year high that will make most shareholder money.  The 52-week trading range is $10.50 to $18.94, and shares closed at $15.58 yesterday.   

Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2008

Posted on: January 16, 2008 – 7:40 am in Bait Shop, Mergers and Buy Outs, Software, ,

Oracle Earnings To Glimmer Into 2008 Enterprise Spending (ORCL, BEAS)

After today’s close, we will get to see the highly expected earnings report out of Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL).  First Call has estimates at $0.27 EPS on revenues of $5.04 Billion.  The company usually holds off on offering guidance until its conference call, so until that is given we will probably consider the initial earnings report as somewhat incomplete data.  Next quarter’s estimates are $0.29 EPS and $5.19 Billion in revenues.  Fiscal May 2008 shows estimates at $1.22 EPS on almost $21.5 Billion.

The pricing in stock options today isn’t indicative of more than a 2.5% expected move, although with shares down 2% ahead of results we admit that this may be off.  Analysts have an average price target of almost $25.00 as of now, and that is higher than in the past when the shares were under $20.00.  Its 52-week trading range is $15.97 to $23.00, and since early November this traded under $20.00 and near $23.00.  So this report could easily cause a stronger directional move than options pricing would indicate.

Oracle’s market cap today is over $106 Billion even after the drop.  Another key metric, perhaps more than the actual report on an "after currency basis" will be its business spending expectations for 2008.  Since Oracle is last among software companies to report and since it is almost two-months later than other software companies right ahead of the end of 2007, this may have more impact in the overall software sector than others.

As Larry Ellison has been unloading shares, this has been given a greater notice of late.  While many feels he has been opportunistic in selling at the top, he does still have more shares than he could get rid of in years.  We may get to hear about any future plans for BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS), although that is presumable dead in the water until the next BEA Systems stock drop.  But there is one word we expect to hear in the outlook and "looking ahead comments" that has been a somewhat vacant initiative at Oracle: VIRTUALIZATION.

Lastly, NetSuite (Ellison backed it) will have its IPO tomorrow and that range was just recently bumped up in its expected pricing.

Jon C. Ogg
December 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the SPECIAL SITUATION newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: December 19, 2007 – 1:22 pm in Earnings, Software, , , ,

Nasdaq Short Interest: Big Bets Against Financials And Tech

Nasdaq released short interest in stocks listed on the exchange for the period ending November 15 compared to the numbers on October 31. Short sellers made substantial bets that some financial and tech stocks would have sharp downward corrections.

Shares sold short in E*Trade (ETFC) rose 22.2 million to 51.8 million. Short shares in the Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ) rose 1.9 million to 8.1 million.

Investors believe that shares in Sirius (SIRI) are going to fall. Sharse sold short in the company moved up 23.6 million to 103 million. Short sellers think Level 3 (LVLT) will continue its slide increasing short interest  by 10.5 million to 150.1 million. Shares short in Microsoft (MSFT) rose 7.6 million to 108.8 million, a sign that some on Wall St. think its rally is over.

Palm (PALM) and Clearwire (CLWR) two tech stocks with big cult followings both got hit. Short interest in Palm moved up 9.3 million shares to 35 million. Clearwire, fresh off a broken joint venture with Sprint (S) saw shares sold short move up 3.9 million to 11.4 million.

On the plus side, shorts moved out of Sun (JAVA), buy reducing their interest by 23.8 million to 16 million. Yahoo! (YHOO) got a vote of confidence. Shares sold short in the stock fell 11.7 million to 54.3 million. Short sellers also reduced their interest in Intel (INTC) by 5.8 million to 70.1 million. Shorts think Comcast (CMCSA) may have bottomed, decreasing shares sold short by 6 million to 15.1 million.

Largest Short Positions

Company                                        Shares Sold Short

Level 3                                            150.1 million

Micorosft                                         108.9 million

Sirius                                              103.0 million

Charter (CHTR)                                100.7 million

Intel                                                  70.1 million

Yahoo!                                              54.3 million

E*Trade                                            51.8 million

Comcast                                          43.8 million

Cisco (CSCO)                                  40.4 million

Dell (DELL)                                      36.6 million

Largest Increases In Short Positions

Company                                         Increase In Shares Short

Sirius                                              23.5 million shares

E*Trade                                           22.2 million

Level 3                                            10.5 million

Palm                                                9.3 million

Microsoft                                          7.6 million

Clearwire                                          3.9 million

Largest Decreases In Short Position

Company                                       Decrease In Shares Short

Sun                                               23.8 million decrease

Atmel                                            19.4 million

BEA Systems (BEAS)                    16.4 million

Yahoo!                                           11.8 million

Network Appliance                           8..2 million

Comcast                                         6.0 million

Intel                                                5.8 million

Data from WSJ and Nasdaq

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 28, 2007 – 4:39 am in Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 11/16/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, the pace of capital spending in China rose quickly, making a rate increase likely.

Reuters writes that an investigation into the finances of Fannie Mae (FNM) is likely after Fortune magazine questioned the company’s accounting.

Reuters reports that Starbucks (SBUX) reported its first traffic drop.

Reuters also reports that Microsoft (MSFT) aims to be one of the top two companies in online advertising in the next three to five years.

Reuters writes that US sales of game console jumped sharply lead by the Nintendo Wii.

Reuters reports that sales of Sony’s (SNE) PS3 more than doubled in the US after the company cut the price of the product.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Google (GOOG) is prepared to buy wireless spectrum in the upcoming FCC auction. Bids could go above $4.6 billion.

The Wall Street Journal says that Gannett’s (GCI) USA Today will cut nearly 10% of its editorial staff.

The New York Times writes that online video is stealing viewer from TV.

The FT writes that China is worried that a US economic slowdown could hurt the Asian country’s growth rate.

The FT reports that Ford (F) will not close five US plants as part of a deal with the UAW.

Barron’s writes that BEA Systems (BEAS) earnings topped forecasts.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 16, 2007 – 4:15 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , ,

Oracle (ORCL) Warns BEA Systems (BEAS)

The management and board of BEA Systems (BEAS) are boobs of the first order. Oracle (ORCL) offered $17 a share for the company when it was trading below $14. The BEAS shares had not been at $17 since 2002.

The reaction from the BEAS board was that the company was worth $21. The number does not appear to have a rational basis or justification. But, if wishes were horses all the beggars would ride.

Oracle has now come back to BEAS with a message. It follows weeks without any other bidder emerging for the company. Oracle say that, if it makes a bid, it will be below $17. “If we made another offer [for BEA], the price would be lower,” Larry Ellison, the company’s CEO said at Oracle’s annual analyst meeting on Wednesday. Pointing to the recent retreat in technology stocks, he added: “Clearly the $17 price seems too high now," reports the FT.

BEAS has no leverage. It should beg for the $17 and take it. At least its shareholders would get about what the company trades for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 15, 2007 – 5:58 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

Media Digest 11/15/2007

According to Reuters, Barclays (BCS) took a $2.7 billion write-down due to exposure to subprime markets.

Reuters writes that IBM (IBM) will push into the business of running huge data centers for operations like banks and and retailers.

Reuters writes that Merriil Lynch (MER) named John Thain as its CEO.

Reuters reports that Cerberus backed away from its purchase of United Rentals because of bad credit markets.

Reuters also reports that OPEC ministers claim that increasing the supply of oil will not help move prices down.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Delta (DAL) formed a committee to look at alternatives including selling the airline. Separately, Pardus Capital pushed for  a merger with United (UAUA).

The Wall Street Journal writes that when Starbucks (SBUX) reports earnings today, investors will be looking for a slowdown in traffic.

The Wall Street Journal writes that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will add a warning label about heart attack risk to it diabetes drug Avandia.

The Wall Street Journal writes that AMD (AMD) will introduce a powerful new line of PC chips

The Wall Street Journal writes that the head of E*Trade (ETFC) wants it to find a partner or seek a cash infusion.

The Wall Street Journal reports that UAW members approved their new contract with Ford (F).

The Wall Street Journal reports that the cable industry will fight restrictions suggested by the head of the FCC.

The New York Times writes that Warren Buffett told Congress that repealing the estate tax would only benefit a small number of the rich and widen the income gap in the US.

The New York Times writes that Dell (DELL) will offer servers with the Sun (JAVA) Solaris operating system.

The FT writes that outside investors have taken over two collapsed Bear Stearsn (BSC) funds.

The FT reports that Oracle (ORCL) warned BEA Systems (BEAS) that any future bid for the company would be lower than the first one.

CNN Money reports that Sony (SNE) PS3 sales have more than doubled in the US since the company cut the price of the game console.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: November 15, 2007 – 4:17 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Stock News (November 14, 2007)

Below is some of the top news pre-market:

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) reports earnings after close; estimates are $0.29 EPS & R$2.38B.
  • BEA Systems (BEAS) said it expects to submit SEC filings tomorrow to regain compliance.
  • Canadian Solar (CSIQ) trading up over 25% after beating earnings and raising guidance.
  • CDC Corp. (CHINA) announced that its CDC Software expects record revenues this quarter.
  • E*Trade (ETFC) trading up another 3% pre-market.
  • GigaMedia (GIGM) $0.17 EPS vs $0.14 est.
  • HSBC Holdings plc (HBC) taking a $3.4 Billion charge on bad loans in U.S.
  • Meridian BioScience (VIVO) $0.16 EPS vs $0.15 est.
  • MetroPCS (PCS) $0.15 EPS vs $0.13 est.
  • Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR) now expects to unblind EVEREST data and announce primary endpoint results in Jan-2008 and submit PMA early in Q2-2008; for stroke motor recovery and its planned PMA submission; after FDA communications.
  • Pepsico (PEP) reaffirmed guidance of $3.39 EPS for 2007 and cash flows of $7 Billion.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) hosts its analyst day, Dutch court dismissed one of Nokia’s patent claims against Qualcomm; announced acquisition of Firethorn for mobile banking.
  • Rigel Pharms (RIGL) said that Merck-Serono exercised an option to R763/AS703569 and Aurora Kinase inhibitors in Japan.
  • Rockwell Collins (COL) increased its buyback plan by $300 million.
  • Taser (TASR) reported 3 large orders that will ship this quarter.

Jon C. Ogg
November 14, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: November 14, 2007 – 8:19 am in Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 10/30/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, Alan Greenspan say that the demand for subprime mortage securities is down.

Reuters writes that the UAW is gearing up for tough talks with Ford (F).

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed may not cut rates at all.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Google (GOOG) plans to announce plans for its G-Phone within the next two weeks.

The Wall Street Journal writes that some analysts believe that Countrywide (CFC) may have trouble keeping its plan to make a profit in Q4.

According to the FT, Countrywide (CFC) accused the federal government of doing nothiing to improve housing.

The FT writes that several private equity firms are in talks to sell stakes to a Chinese fund.

Barron’s writes that Chinese firm Sohu (SOHU) bet its earnings forecast and the shares rose.

Bloomberg writes that Orcale (ORCL)  may lower its bid for BEA Systems (BEAS) due to the lack of another buyer.

CNN Money writes that vulture investors have raised large sums to buy mortgage-back securities but have not used the money, an indication that they have further to fall.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 30, 2007 – 2:55 am in Press Digest, , , , , ,

Oracle (ORCL) Drops BEA Systems (BEAS) Bid

Oracle (ORCL) dropped its $17-a-share bid for BEA Systems (BEAS) when a deadling set by the larger company passed.

"BEA shareholders should not assume that Oracle will renew its $17 per share offer in the future," Oracle said in a statement quoted by Reuters.

Now BEAS shareholders can watch their stock fall to $13.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 29, 2007 – 4:40 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

Media Digest 10/29/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, Oracle (ORCL) has withdrawn its bid for BEA Systems (BEAS).

Reuters writes that profits at Toahiba rose 38%.

Reuters reports that Chrysler workers have approved the UAW contract with the company.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO Stan O’Neal has been forced out of the firm.

The Wall Street Journal writes that shares in multinational companies are moving stock indices up while shares in companies doing business with the US consumer are falling.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Carl Icahn is pushing for Biogen to be sold to a larger drug company.

The Wall Street Journal writes that News Corp (NWS) Fox and GE (GW) NBC Universal have launched their online video site Hulu.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Nintendo plans to launch more features for its video game platforms to make them practical alternatives for casual gamers.

The New York Times writes that the FCC will allow multiple companies to offer cable service in large apartment buildings.

The New York Times writes that, after weathering the dotcom bubble, TheStreet.com (TSCM) has slowly moved its business to a highly successful model.

The FT writes that GE (GE) believes that its business in India and China will protect it from a downturn in the US.

Barron’s writes that the valuation gap between US and Chinese companies is getting huge.

Bloomberg writes that oil pushed above $93 for the first time.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 29, 2007 – 3:14 am in Press Digest, , , , , ,

Carl Icahn Sends A “Cover Your Assets” Letter to BEA Systems (BEAS, ORCL)

Carl Icahn has decided to try seizing the day at BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS) by keeping management from killing the buyout and shooting shareholders in the feet.  While he did agree initially that the $17 offer from Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ:ORCL) was inadequate, but he obviously doesn’t want the demand from the board of BEA Systems that a $21.00 price be the floor on a "take it or leave it" basis.  He has sent a letter urging the company to entertain an offer by allowing shareholders to conduct an auction to sell or reject the highest bidder.  He thinks shareholders should have the right to sell at $17 to Oracle if they choose and if no higher bid emerges.

-Jon C. Ogg

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.  You can also join the bi-weekly free email newsletter that contains more preliminary data on broader topics in IPO’s, Buyouts, Spin-Offs, Reorganizations, and more.

BELOW IS A COPY OF THE LETTER:

Read More »

Posted on: October 26, 2007 – 5:25 pm in Mergers and Buy Outs, Software, , , ,

Pre-Market Earnings Movers (October 26, 2007)

(BEAS) BEA Systems trading down almost 4% ahead of Oracle rejected BEA Systems’ $21 indication.
(CFC) Countrywide -$2.85 EPS vs -$1.28 est., but shares indicated up over 10% on writedowns.
(COLM) Columbia Sportswear indicated down marginally after slightly beating earnings.
(DELL) Dell trading up 2% after strong Microsoft numbers.
(FDRY) Foundry Networks trading up 8% after beating earnings estimates.
(FMD) First Marblehead trading up almost 5% after earnings.
(FO) Fortune Brands $1.35 EPS vs $1.29 est.
(MSFT) Microsoft traded up to over $35 after beating earnings and raising guidance.
(PANC) Panacos trading up 20% on HIV trials meeting endpoints.
(SWIR) Sierra Wireless trading up 12% after beating earnings and raised guidance.
(TRID) Trident Micro trading down almost 30% on earnings outlook and on downgrades.
(VG) Vonage Settled with Verizon.
(VSEA) Varian Semiconductor trading down 14%; earnings were strong but guidance was weak.
(WB) Wachovia was reportedly approached about a merger by Merrill Lynch.

Jon C. Ogg
October 26, 2007

Posted on: October 26, 2007 – 7:27 am in Earnings, Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , ,

BEA System’s Arrogance Will Cost it

The board at BEA Systems (BEAS) is sitting on a $17 offer from Oracle (ORCL). BEAS has not traded above $17 in over four years and was sitting at about $14 before the Oracle offer. That may make it difficult to get Wall St. to believe that the company is worth much more.

But, BEAS asked its banker Goldman Sachs to put a value on the company. The figure of $21 came back. It is hard to know how that figure was supported, but BEAS told Oracle and the world that the company was not for sales for anything less.

BEAS has not gotten any new bids. Oracle is the only interested party. It would not be logical for it to offer more. There is no competition.

So, The BEAS board is playing with fire. If Oracle wakes away, the stock that trades just above $17 is likely to drop to $14, or lower. And, that is the stuff that shareholder lawsuits are made of.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 26, 2007 – 4:55 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

BEA Systems (BEAS) Claimes It Is A Great Beauty

BEA Systems (BEAS) want portential buyer Oracle (ORCL), which has offered $17 a share, to know that the company is worth $21.

Why is it worth so much? Because Goldman Sachs and the company’s board say it is. “We continue to believe that Oracle’s unsolicited proposal to acquire BEA at $17.00 per share significantly undervalues BEA, and is therefore not in the best interests of BEA shareholders. Accordingly, we will continue to vigorously oppose a sale to Oracle at $17.00 per share. Over the last several weeks, Oracle has repeatedly asked us for the price at which we would be willing to begin negotiations, and the Board has concluded, after consultation with its financial advisor Goldman Sachs, that it is prepared to authorize negotiations with third parties including Oracle at a price of $21.00 per share."

It is, of course, a lot of posturing.

The stock has not traded at its current level since early 2002. It is not worth more than $15 to anyone other than Oracle which can fire most of the management and sales teams to save money and improve margins.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 25, 2007 – 7:59 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

Nasdaq Short Position For October, Sun (JAVA) Shows Huge Improvement

Below are the short positions for major companies traded on the Nasdaq as of October 15. The figures compare to numbers on September 28, 2007

Traders bet big on Sun’s turnaround, dropping their short positions by over 24 million shares to 40 million. They also bet that the Oracle takeover of BEA Systems would not happen increasing shares short in BEAS by 4 million.

Shorts were right to move into Level 3 in large numbers. Its earnings were a disaster. But, they moved out of Microsoft, perhaps a sign that Wall St. is starting to believe that the company’s internet and game strategies may pay-off.

Largest Short Positions

Company                                                 Shares Sold Short

Level 3 (LVLT)                                          139 million

Charter (CHTR)                                          94 million

Sirius (SIRI)                                               85.1 million

Microsoft (MSFT)                                       75.4 million

Intel (INTC)                                                74.6 million

Yahoo! (YHOO)                                          58.1 million

Comcast (CMCSA)                                    45.6 million

Sun (JAVA)                                               40.3 million

Oracle (ORCL)                                          38.7 million

Symantec (SYMC)                                    35.7 million

Amazon (AMZN)                                       35.3 million

Largest Increase In Shares Sold Short

Company                                                 Increase In Shares Short

Level 3                                                     10 million share increase

Yahoo!                                                      6.3 million

BEA Systems (BEAS)                               4 million

E*Trade                                                    3.6 million

Charter                                                     3 million

Largest Decrease In Short Position

Company                                                 Decrease In Short Position

Sun                                                         24.6 million decrease

Nvidia (NVDA)                                           6.8 million

Microsoft                                                  5.5 million

Comcast                                                  4.9 million

Sandisk (SNDK)                                       4.6 million

Dell (DELL)                                              4.2 million

Oracle                                                     2.9 million

Data from Nasdaq and WSJ

Douglas A. McIntre

Posted on: October 25, 2007 – 6:03 am in Short Interest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

BEA Systems’ (BEAS) Mad (As In “Insane”) Board

BEA Systems (BEAS) has a firm $17 a share offer from Oracle (ORCL). The company thinks it could get more, and, so did the market. The stock moved above $18 on news of the offer. BEA has Carl Icahn breathing down its neck to sell the company.

Oracle has give BEA a Sunday deadline to accept a deal. BEA’s board say "no dice". It can do better. But, with Goldman Sachs as its banker, it has not done better. Other possible buyers like IBM (IBM) and SAP (SAP) have not stepped up.

The BEA board is playing with fire. If the company had shown that it was worth well above $17, it would be one matter. But, the stock has not traded at that level since 2002. Assuming the markets are efficient in valuing companies, especially over long periods of time, the Oracle offer is on the high side of fair.

The board needs to wise up. That is not a white knight on the distant horizon. It’s only a mirage.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 24, 2007 – 4:36 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, ,

Carl Icahn Needs To Buy 4.9% Of Yahoo! (YHOO)

Carl Icahn has done a lot for shared holders at close to a dozen companies over the last year or so.

He continues to put pressure on Motorola (MOT) to increase its dividend or break itself into pieces. Many would argue that the pressure he bought on Time Warner (TWX) caused that company to spin out its cable unit. He has successfully pushed for the sale of biotech firm Biogen Idec (BIIB).Those shares are up 20% today, He urged BEA Systems (BEAS) to put itself up for sale. Oracle (ORCL) has made a bid. That moved the shares from under $14 to over $18 last week.

Perhaps it is time for Mr. Icahn to turn his attention to another undervalued company, Yahoo! (YHOO). For $1.5 billion, he could pick up about 4.9% of the company without having to disclose his full intentions.

An outsider like Icahn may be the only person who can get Yahoo! off the dime. The 100 days program by new management has not yielded much. One Wall St. analyst suggested breaking up the company. There has also been a suggestion that Yahoo! outsource its search functions to Google (GOOG) and cut 20% of its staff to improve earnings.

According to the last Yahoo! proxy, Legg Mason owned almost 6% of the the firm. Founder David Filo owns 6%. No other person or institution owned over 5%. A number of large funds probably own 2% to 3% each.

There are a several things that Icahn could ask for. He could push for the company to take on debt and use some of its $5 billion in cash and long term investments to start to return money to shares holder. If Yahoo! took on enough debt, it could probably buy-back a third of its shares and still have manageable debt service.

Yahoo! needs some significant shaking up from the outside. Icahn would be just the man to do it.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: October 15, 2007 – 9:43 am in Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , , ,