It also notes the forward EPS multiples being a mere 15.8 for 2008 and 12.2 for 2009.  Both multiples are under the industry average by about 20% and are also at a discount to the S&P.  Based on yesterday’s close, Goldman Sachs sees a 23% gain opportunity to its target.

With the acquisition of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS), Goldman Sachs has issued the following metrics for forward years:

• 2008 is $1.26 EPS, same as before;
• 2009 is $1.47 EPS, up from $1.41 before;
• 2010 is $1.63 EPS, up from $1.60 before.

Jon C. Ogg
March 6, 2008

As Carl Icahn and his friends are multi-billionaires, we have eliminated the positions under $50 million since smaller postions are hardly worth his time and effort. The left column is the dollar amounts and the second number is the number of shares:

• ANADARKO PETROLEUM (NYSE: APC) $970,600,000  14,775,468 shares
• BEA SYSTEMS (NASDAQ: BEAS)  $654,176,000; 41,456,016 shares
• BIOGEN IDEC (NASDAQ: BIIB)  $469,973,000; 8,256,723 shares
• CSX CORP (NYSE: CSX) $128,422,000; 2,920,000
• LEAR CORP (NYSE: LEA) 265,424,000; 9,595,954 shares
• MACYS (NYSE: M)  $133,610,000; 5,164,660 shares
• MOTOROLA (NYSE: MOT) $969,881,000; 60,466,400 shares
• J.C.PENNEY (NYSE: JCP)  $183,274,000; 4,166,271 shares
• REGENERON PHARMA (NASDAQ: REGN)  $60,568,000; 2,508,001 shares
• TEMPLE INLAND (NYSE: TIN) $71,901,000; 3,448,488 shares
• TIME WARNER CABLE (NYSE: TWC) $130,027,000; 4,711,128 shares
• TIME WARNER INC (NYSE: TWX) $213,526,000; 12,933,159
• UNUM GROUP (NYSE: UNM) $95,659,000; 4,020,960 shares
• WILLIAMS COS INC (NYSE: WMB)  $173,201,000; 4,840,724 shares

Jon C. Ogg
February 14, 2008

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.  Join the 24/7 Wall St. open email distribution list to hear of spin-offs, emerging IPO, break-up, reorganization, and other special situation stocks.

The Oracle (ORCL) purchase of BEA Systems (BEAS) is notable for the premium which was paid. If Oracle is still considered the "smart money" in tech, it is sending a signal that enterprise business is still growing.

Data released yesterday by IDC showed very strong growth for PC sales across the world in Q4 and remarkable good figures in the US. Dell (DELL) would appear to be on the mend. According to Reuters "Dell shipped 17.1 percent more PCs in the quarter than in the year-earlier period, for a total of 11.3 million units and 14.6 percent of the global PC market." In other words, the market is good enough for the weak to get a bit stronger.

Perhaps the best bell-weather of tech spending were results from huge enterprise software company SAP (SAP). When the company released results yesterday it said "Growth was broad-based across every major region, which means we are not on the edge of a global recession,"

If tech spending is strong, overall capital outlays at companies may not be contracting. That news would be a contrast to recent concerns that corporate spending may be weak.

The funeral for tech is notable for the fact that the body did not show up.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) is acquiring the company for $19.375 per share entirely in cash of roughly $8.5 Billion (net of $7.2 Billion of BEA’s $1.3 Billion cash on hand).

The merger is set to close in mid-2008 and this is actually a definitive agreement that BEA Systems is capitulating to.

The merger is supposed to be accretive by $0.01 to $0.02 EPS on a non-GAAP basis in the first full year after this merger closes.

BEA has been under pressure of late after the company rejected the previous buyout attempt from oracle.  This $19.375 is actually a multi-year high that will make most shareholder money.  The 52-week trading range is $10.50 to $18.94, and shares closed at $15.58 yesterday.   

Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2008

The pricing in stock options today isn’t indicative of more than a 2.5% expected move, although with shares down 2% ahead of results we admit that this may be off.  Analysts have an average price target of almost $25.00 as of now, and that is higher than in the past when the shares were under $20.00.  Its 52-week trading range is $15.97 to $23.00, and since early November this traded under $20.00 and near $23.00.  So this report could easily cause a stronger directional move than options pricing would indicate.

Oracle’s market cap today is over $106 Billion even after the drop.  Another key metric, perhaps more than the actual report on an "after currency basis" will be its business spending expectations for 2008.  Since Oracle is last among software companies to report and since it is almost two-months later than other software companies right ahead of the end of 2007, this may have more impact in the overall software sector than others.

As Larry Ellison has been unloading shares, this has been given a greater notice of late.  While many feels he has been opportunistic in selling at the top, he does still have more shares than he could get rid of in years.  We may get to hear about any future plans for BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS), although that is presumable dead in the water until the next BEA Systems stock drop.  But there is one word we expect to hear in the outlook and "looking ahead comments" that has been a somewhat vacant initiative at Oracle: VIRTUALIZATION.

Lastly, NetSuite (Ellison backed it) will have its IPO tomorrow and that range was just recently bumped up in its expected pricing.

Jon C. Ogg
December 19, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the SPECIAL SITUATION newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Shares sold short in E*Trade (ETFC) rose 22.2 million to 51.8 million. Short shares in the Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ) rose 1.9 million to 8.1 million.

Investors believe that shares in Sirius (SIRI) are going to fall. Sharse sold short in the company moved up 23.6 million to 103 million. Short sellers think Level 3 (LVLT) will continue its slide increasing short interest  by 10.5 million to 150.1 million. Shares short in Microsoft (MSFT) rose 7.6 million to 108.8 million, a sign that some on Wall St. think its rally is over.

Palm (PALM) and Clearwire (CLWR) two tech stocks with big cult followings both got hit. Short interest in Palm moved up 9.3 million shares to 35 million. Clearwire, fresh off a broken joint venture with Sprint (S) saw shares sold short move up 3.9 million to 11.4 million.

On the plus side, shorts moved out of Sun (JAVA), buy reducing their interest by 23.8 million to 16 million. Yahoo! (YHOO) got a vote of confidence. Shares sold short in the stock fell 11.7 million to 54.3 million. Short sellers also reduced their interest in Intel (INTC) by 5.8 million to 70.1 million. Shorts think Comcast (CMCSA) may have bottomed, decreasing shares sold short by 6 million to 15.1 million.

Largest Short Positions

Company                                        Shares Sold Short

Level 3                                            150.1 million

Micorosft                                         108.9 million

Sirius                                              103.0 million

Charter (CHTR)                                100.7 million

Intel                                                  70.1 million

Yahoo!                                              54.3 million

E*Trade                                            51.8 million

Comcast                                          43.8 million

Cisco (CSCO)                                  40.4 million

Dell (DELL)                                      36.6 million

Largest Increases In Short Positions

Company                                         Increase In Shares Short

Sirius                                              23.5 million shares

E*Trade                                           22.2 million

Level 3                                            10.5 million

Palm                                                9.3 million

Microsoft                                          7.6 million

Clearwire                                          3.9 million

Largest Decreases In Short Position

Company                                       Decrease In Shares Short

Sun                                               23.8 million decrease

Atmel                                            19.4 million

BEA Systems (BEAS)                    16.4 million

Yahoo!                                           11.8 million

Network Appliance                           8..2 million

Comcast                                         6.0 million

Intel                                                5.8 million

Data from WSJ and Nasdaq

Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters writes that an investigation into the finances of Fannie Mae (FNM) is likely after Fortune magazine questioned the company’s accounting.

Reuters reports that Starbucks (SBUX) reported its first traffic drop.

Reuters also reports that Microsoft (MSFT) aims to be one of the top two companies in online advertising in the next three to five years.

Reuters writes that US sales of game console jumped sharply lead by the Nintendo Wii.

Reuters reports that sales of Sony’s (SNE) PS3 more than doubled in the US after the company cut the price of the product.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Google (GOOG) is prepared to buy wireless spectrum in the upcoming FCC auction. Bids could go above $4.6 billion.

The Wall Street Journal says that Gannett’s (GCI) USA Today will cut nearly 10% of its editorial staff.

The New York Times writes that online video is stealing viewer from TV.

The FT writes that China is worried that a US economic slowdown could hurt the Asian country’s growth rate.

The FT reports that Ford (F) will not close five US plants as part of a deal with the UAW.

Barron’s writes that BEA Systems (BEAS) earnings topped forecasts.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The reaction from the BEAS board was that the company was worth $21. The number does not appear to have a rational basis or justification. But, if wishes were horses all the beggars would ride.

Oracle has now come back to BEAS with a message. It follows weeks without any other bidder emerging for the company. Oracle say that, if it makes a bid, it will be below $17. “If we made another offer [for BEA], the price would be lower,” Larry Ellison, the company’s CEO said at Oracle’s annual analyst meeting on Wednesday. Pointing to the recent retreat in technology stocks, he added: “Clearly the $17 price seems too high now," reports the FT.

BEAS has no leverage. It should beg for the $17 and take it. At least its shareholders would get about what the company trades for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Reuters writes that IBM (IBM) will push into the business of running huge data centers for operations like banks and and retailers.

Reuters writes that Merriil Lynch (MER) named John Thain as its CEO.

Reuters reports that Cerberus backed away from its purchase of United Rentals because of bad credit markets.

Reuters also reports that OPEC ministers claim that increasing the supply of oil will not help move prices down.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Delta (DAL) formed a committee to look at alternatives including selling the airline. Separately, Pardus Capital pushed for  a merger with United (UAUA).

The Wall Street Journal writes that when Starbucks (SBUX) reports earnings today, investors will be looking for a slowdown in traffic.

The Wall Street Journal writes that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will add a warning label about heart attack risk to it diabetes drug Avandia.

The Wall Street Journal writes that AMD (AMD) will introduce a powerful new line of PC chips

The Wall Street Journal writes that the head of E*Trade (ETFC) wants it to find a partner or seek a cash infusion.

The Wall Street Journal reports that UAW members approved their new contract with Ford (F).

The Wall Street Journal reports that the cable industry will fight restrictions suggested by the head of the FCC.

The New York Times writes that Warren Buffett told Congress that repealing the estate tax would only benefit a small number of the rich and widen the income gap in the US.

The New York Times writes that Dell (DELL) will offer servers with the Sun (JAVA) Solaris operating system.

The FT writes that outside investors have taken over two collapsed Bear Stearsn (BSC) funds.

The FT reports that Oracle (ORCL) warned BEA Systems (BEAS) that any future bid for the company would be lower than the first one.

CNN Money reports that Sony (SNE) PS3 sales have more than doubled in the US since the company cut the price of the game console.

Douglas A. McIntyre

• Applied Materials (AMAT) reports earnings after close; estimates are $0.29 EPS & R$2.38B.
• BEA Systems (BEAS) said it expects to submit SEC filings tomorrow to regain compliance.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) trading up over 25% after beating earnings and raising guidance.
• CDC Corp. (CHINA) announced that its CDC Software expects record revenues this quarter.
• E*Trade (ETFC) trading up another 3% pre-market.
• GigaMedia (GIGM) $0.17 EPS vs $0.14 est.
• HSBC Holdings plc (HBC) taking a $3.4 Billion charge on bad loans in U.S.
• Meridian BioScience (VIVO) $0.16 EPS vs $0.15 est.
• MetroPCS (PCS) $0.15 EPS vs $0.13 est.
• Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR) now expects to unblind EVEREST data and announce primary endpoint results in Jan-2008 and submit PMA early in Q2-2008; for stroke motor recovery and its planned PMA submission; after FDA communications.
• Pepsico (PEP) reaffirmed guidance of $3.39 EPS for 2007 and cash flows of $7 Billion.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) hosts its analyst day, Dutch court dismissed one of Nokia’s patent claims against Qualcomm; announced acquisition of Firethorn for mobile banking.
• Rigel Pharms (RIGL) said that Merck-Serono exercised an option to R763/AS703569 and Aurora Kinase inhibitors in Japan.
• Rockwell Collins (COL) increased its buyback plan by $300 million.
• Taser (TASR) reported 3 large orders that will ship this quarter.

Jon C. Ogg
November 14, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.