The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down less than 1 point to 12,019.42 (-0.01%), the NASDAQ rose less than 1 point (0.03%) to 2,626.93, and the S&P 500 fell 0.02% or less than 1 point to 1,244.28. Folks, that’s flat!

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) raised to ‘buy’ at KeyBanc. Other ratings action Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) started as ‘hold’ at KeyBanc; Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; and Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading:
Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is down -8.6%% at $36.34; Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) is up 23.9% at $28.95; Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) is up 3.4% at $47.82; and Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS) is down -3.1% at $48.08.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCWD) is up 29.7% at $12.61. The freight hauler concluded a 1-for-300 reverse split that drove the share price to $9 from $0.03.

Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is up about 7% at $31.30. The computer disk drive maker announced that it was resuming operations at one of its flooded Thai plants and raised its revenue estimate for the current quarter. More details here.

Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) is down about -9.6% at $16.79. The smartphone and tablet maker announced an inventory writedown of $485 million for unsold PlayBook tablets and said that full-year earnings would be lower. Detailed coverage here.

Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC) is down more than -10% at $4.20. The health care facilities operator likely is suffering from a lowered target price from BMO Capital Markets with rating of ‘market perform’.

JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) is down nearly -7% at $1.74. The solar PV maker is likely giving back gains made over the past two days. The was little reason for the gain in the first place, so that investors are taking it back should be no surprise.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted a speech due from Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans and short-term Treasury bill auctions in the morning. Here are other noteworthy events scheduled for Monday (all times Eastern):

• 10:00 a.m. – Census Bureau factory orders report
• 10:00 a.m. – Industrial Supply Management non-manufacturing index

Have a great weekend.

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Paul Ausick

Tuesday

Zoltek Companies Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) makes the lightweight carbon fiber composites used in a variety of high-tech products including wind turbine blades. The company has posted four straight quarterly EPS losses and this quarter is not expected to reverse that trend. Zoltek is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.02 on revenue of $44.5 million for its third quarter ended in September.

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is expected to ride the wave of better earnings at luxury retailers. The consensus estimate is for EPS of $0.61 on revenue of $802.1 million, compared with EPS of $0.46 on revenue of $681.7 million in the same period a year ago.

Wednesday

Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is a mall-based retailer of teen clothing. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.28 on revenue of $576.4 million. A year ago the company posted EPS of $0.67 on revenue of $602.8 million. The company posted an EPS loss of -$0.02 in its July quarter this year.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is another clothing retailer with offerings aimed at a wider range of ages than is Aeropostale. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.27 on $781 million in revenue. In the same period last year, American Eagle posted EPS of $0.29 on $751.5 million in revenue.

Thursday

Jos. A. Banks Clothiers Inc. (NASDAQ: JOSB) is a men’s clothing store with more than 500 outlets in 42 states. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.51 on $196 million in revenue. A year ago, Banks posted EPS of $0.45 on $173.3 million in revenue.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) makes athletic apparel for men, women, and children and operates about 148 stores in the US, Canada, and Australia. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.25 on $235.9 million in revenue. In the same period last year, the company posted EPS of $0.18 on revenue of $175.8 million.

Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) offers athletic apparel and other sporting goods to teens and young adults at more than 430 stores in the US and Canada. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.42 on $153.1 million in revenue. Last year the company posted EPS of $0.40 on revenue of $135.9 million.

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) has been integrating its acquisition of the assets of the failed Borders chain and recently introduced a new version of its Nook e-reader to compete with the new Kindles from Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.02 on $1.98 billion in revenue. Last year in the same period the company posted an EPS loss of -$0.13 on revenue of $1.91 billion. B&N has missed EPS estimates for the last four quarters.

Friday

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) operates more than 1,500 closeout stores in the US and Canada. The consensus estimates call for EPS of $0.09 on $1.13 billion in revenue. A year ago the company posted earnings of $0.23 on $1.06 billion in revenue.

Other Happenings Next Week

On Monday we get the new home sales report from the federal government.

Tuesday sees the release of the latest Case-Schiller housing price index, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index, the State Street Investor Confidence index, and speeches from two Federal Reserve Bank presidents, Janet Yellen and Narayana Kocherlakota.

On Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association reports purchase applications, the Challenger Job-cut report, the ADP employment report, the Chicago purchasing manager’s index (PMI), and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday’s reports include chain store sales, motor vehicle sales, the Industrial Supply Managment (ISM) manufacturing index, and a report on construction spending.

Friday closes out the week with the report from the Census Bureau and the Department of Labor on the employment situation.

Have a great weekend!

Paul Ausick

Aetna, Inc. (NYSE: AET) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) Started as Hold at Jefferies.
Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) Cut to Hold at Argus.
JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) Cut to Sell at ThinkEquity.
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) Cut to Sell at ThinkEquity.
McDermott International (NYSE: MDR) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Veolia Environnement S.A. (NYSE: VE) Raised to Overweight at HSBC.
World Fuel Services Corporation (NYSE: INT) named value stock of the day at Zacks.

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 61 points to 11,983.32 (-0.51%), the NASDAQ fell more than 11 points (-0.44%) to 2,686.15, and the S&P 500 fell -0.63% or more than 7 points to 1,253.23.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) raised to ‘outperform’ at Wedbush. Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) was raised to ‘outperform’ at Zack’s and was named the firm’s Bull of the Day; Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) was cut to ‘sector perform’ at National Bank; SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD) was cut to ‘hold’ at Stifel Nicolaus; Sunpower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWRA) was cut to ‘underperform’ at Macquarie; and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) was cut to ‘neutral’ at Macquarie. We noted a change in the solar sector earlier today.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) is up about 6.4%, at $44.04, after posting a new 52-week high earlier in the day; LinkedIn Corp. (NASDAQ: LNKD) is down more than -6%, at $82.09; Analysts International Corp. (NASDAQ: ANLY) is up nearly 28%, at $4.67; Oxigene, Inc. (NASDAQ: OXGN) is down -33%, at $1.22; Rosetta Stone, Inc. (NYSE: RST) is down more than -23%, at $7.77, after posting a new low earlier today; and MasTec, Inc. (NYSE: MTZ) is down -20%, at $17.52.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Alon USA Energy, Inc. (NYSE: ALJ) is up nearly 46%, at $11.40. The Israeli-based oil refiner has struck a deal to receive 25,000 barrels/day of WTI crude at its Louisiana refinery, which will give its margins a sharp boost.

DragonWave, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRWI) is up 36%, at $4.91. The company has agreed to buy the microwave business from the joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks.

SemiLEDS Corp. (NASDAQ: LEDS) is up nearly 37%, to $4.04. The company got a huge boost from the Chinese government’s announcement that it will ban incandescent light bulbs beginning next year.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is down more than -6%, at $27.24. The company reported better-than-expected earnings this morning, but asset sales to generate cash are causing concerns among investors.

Imperial Sugar Co. (NASDAQ: IPSU) is down more than -12%, at $6.01, after posting a new 52-week low of $5.75 earlier today. The company is suspending its quarterly dividend.

Seattle Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: SGEN) is down about -18%, at $18.02. The shares posted an all-time high earlier this week, but the stock price run-up may have exaggerated the company’s growth prospects.

Stay tuned for Monday. Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren is giving a speech in the morning. We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

• 11:00 a.m. – Four-week Treasury bill announcement
• 11:30 a.m. – Three- and six-month Treasury bill auction
• 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve consumer credit report

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Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Raised to Outperform at Wedbush.
Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Energy Recovery Inc. (NASDAQ: ERII) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) named as Value stock of the Day at Zacks.
Plexus Corporation (NASDAQ: PLXS) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) Cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.
Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank.
SandRidge Energy, Inc. (NYSE: SD) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (NYSE: SWK) Raised to Buy at Argus.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) Cut to Underperform at Macquarie.
Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Neutral at Macquarie.
Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) Started as Outperform with $7 target at Credit Suisse.
VIVUS, Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) Started as Outperform with $15 target at Credit Suisse.
YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) Raised to Hold fro Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.

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JON C. OGG

24/7 Wall St. has been calling for higher and higher prices in the dollar store sector and we have discussed consolidation in the other discount store and close-out stores.  Dollar stores will be a secular winner over the years ahead unless we get a sudden return to a booming economy.  We have even gone as far as to showing that dollar store chains are now where Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was back in the early 1990s.  Private equity and other savvy investors like Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) have been active in this space. 

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) remains a Stock to Own for the Next Decade, but we are growing to accept the math here: shares hit a new all-time high of $39.22 today and the consensus price target is only $39.94.  We have chatted this one up over and over since the stock was well into the $20 stock handles.  Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) continues to sell stock that it still owns and we would just expect that the firm will continue to sell shares.  It is when those price drops occur that you get your chance to enter the stock on the cheap.  Please be advised, we expect that Warren Buffett will have added to this position.

There has also been buyout interest in Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), up only marginally at $54.05 versus a 52-week range of $41.31 to $56.92.  Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) has also been under private equity interest and its shares are up 2% at $80.92 and its stock hit a new high of $80.99 this morning.  Analysts have consensus price targets of $56.87 for Family Dollar and $77.67 for Dollar Tree.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is a close-out store with many low-priced items but is no dollar store.  There was a while where it was also considered takeover bait but that failed to materialize.  At $34.33, the 52-week range is $27.82 to $44.44.  Tuesday Morning Corp. (NASDAQ: TUES) is another close-out store and it is often overlooked because it has a mere $158 million market capitalization rate.  At $3.71 after a 2.6% drop today, its 52-week range is $3.22 to $5.93.

99 Cents only is up 4.2% at $21.36 this morning. The news and the reaction may seem anti-climactic, but this brings an end to what was a long and arduous buyout process that has been going on since at least March of this year.

The growth of discounters and the growth of dollar stores says something awful about America.  If these trends continue, it simply means we have more and more of the population at the lower-end of the spectrum seeking deals wherever they can be found.  Still, business is business.  If Warren Buffett and private equity giants have so much interest in this sector, ask yourself if there is money to be made. Again: Dollar Stores Are The Next Wal-Mart!

The sad thing is that there is now a market premium in the sector.  Our favorite remains Dollar General, but it now trades at 15-times 2012 (actually January 2013) fiscal earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters.  Another premium is there for Dollar Tree with a forward 2012 ratio of 17.5-times expected earnings.  Family Dollar has a different fiscal year-end (august) but if we blend the estimates we get a stock trading at close to 14-times the same earnings estimate periods of the peers.   

We will start to grow a bit more cautious on the sector of dollar stores if the price appreciates too much more.  The fact that we and others are excited about the dollar store and close-out store sector does not bode for much growth and does not bode well for the middle class.  These stocks now trade at richer multiples than many normal retailers: Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) trades at 9-times expected 2012 (January 2013) earnings estimates and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) trades at 12-times the same period’s estimates.  Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) trades closer to 11-times next year’s expected earnings and that is after the stock enjoyed a significant pop of late.

For a comparison, 99 Cents Only at $22.00 per share values the company at about 17.5-times what was the expected 2012 (March 2013) fiscal earnings expectations.  This still leaves some room higher for dollar stores, but this is a premium to peers and to the broad market.  The secular trend is what is driving the value of dollar stores and investors are willing to pay a premium for that.  The questions will start to arise if these premiums grow much further.  How much of a premium can a discount sector command?

JON C. OGG

Dollar stores are yet again in the news on reports from the New York Post that 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) is soon to get a $22.00 to $24.00 buyout offer from the private equity outfit Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) to top a prior buyout offer from Leonard Green & Partners at about $19.09 earlier in the year.  This may be the rumor mill at work, but there are reasons that this is the case.  The trick here is that the founding family controls about one-third of 99 Cents Only and our understanding is that a new deal might be complicated but would still probably boil down to the highest price within reason.

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) is a Stock to Own for the Next Decade!  It just saw a secondary offering where Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) and private equity affiliates sold stock.  This has risen significantly since its re-IPO and each pullback has only proven to be a bargain-bin buying opportunity.  To prove a point, the stock hit a 52-week and all-time high of $38.33 on Friday and Warren Buffett’s new portfolio manager bought shares for Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A).

There has also been buyout interest in Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) and Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR).  Family Dollar shares are up 4.5% at $54.38 and Dollar Tree is up only 0.3% at $75.46.

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) is no dollar store, but it is very close and it has much of the same customer base.  It has also been under some perceived buyout interest as well.  Its shares are up almost 3% at $34.22 today against a 52-week range of $27.82 to $44.44.

Another close-out store is Tuesday Morning Corp. (NASDAQ: TUES) and it is often overlooked because it has a mere $172 million market capitalization rate.  At $4.03, its 52-week range is $3.38 to $5.93.

99 Cents only is trading up almost 10% at $20.50 today and it hit a new year high of $20.90 earlier.  Before 2005, this one was worth $30 and $35 at the peak and it pays no dividend.

Again, you do not have to like what the growth of discounters and the growth of dollar stores says about America.  Frankly, it is not very pleasant and it fits in with the theme of lower median income and higher poverty.  If Warren Buffett and private equity giants have so much interest in this sector, ask yourself if there is money to be made.

The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE TJX) may be too large now for private equity buyers to focus on with its $21.5 billion market valuation.  At $56.65, its stock is pennies away from the year high of $56.78 and that Barron’s $60+ target is looking much closer now.

Family Dollar is the only real dividend in the dollar sector with a 1.4% dividend yield.  TJX Companies is roughly the same dividend yield.  Wal-Mart offers the highest yield of most retailers, but again: Dollar Stores Are The Next Wal-Mart!

Here is the funny thing… Dollar stores are no longer cheap against the stock market.  They are expensive for the simplest of explanations: this is a secular trend and the growth rate looks to be continuous for this segment.

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JON C. OGG

There is a reason that there has been buyout interest in the sector as Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), and 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) have all either been approached or have been believed to be possible private equity targets.  Ditto for the discounter that is no dollar store of Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG).

Dollar General remains one of our Top Stocks To Own for the Next Decade despite its price rise.  We have said, each time the private equity backers sell it just gives you a free discount to buy shares.  Is it just a coincidence that Dollar General was recently added as a new Warren Buffett stock as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B)?  Team Buffett has almost 1.5 million shares of common stock now.  Berkshire will likely buy more stock, and we would not be shocked at all if the conglomerate bought shares in this 25 million share offering.  Buffett and his portfolio managers understand the secular trends here that are working for the dollar stores.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) still has control over Dollar General even after today’s offering.  This will not be the last secondary offering from them.  If you look at the history of these secondary stock offerings from KKR each dip has been simply another opportunity to get into Dollar General shares cheaper than before.

Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and KKR, along with BofA Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan, were the joint book running managers; co-managers are Barclays Capital, Wells Fargo, Sanford C. Bernstein, CICC, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC.

As the float has grown larger and larger, each successive secondary offering is less and less dilutive to the float.  That is why shares are down only 1.3% at $34.54 today and why the share sale commanded only about a 1% discount.  The consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is $39.60, and the 52-week trading range is $26.65 to $37.13.

JON C. OGG

Dollar General raised the lower-end of its guidance as well and sees the year coming in at $2.22 to $2.30 EPS versus a prior range of $2.20 to $2.30 EPS.  The company also sees 12% to 14% sales growth this year, up 1% on each side from prior targets.  Same-store sales are also now expected at 4% to 6%, 1% higher on each side than a prior forecast.

The news is good news for “dollar and low-priced stores” rivals like Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO), Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), and 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN).  It is no wonder that M&A interest is in the sector.  Last week we saw some of the same from Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) for its close-out sales that are discounted but not always anywhere near $1.00.

The reality is that this all spreads more bad news for the likes of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).  In many ways, dollar store chains are the “The New Wal-Mart” if you go back to the early 1990s.

Dollar General is one of our Top Stocks To Own for the Next Decade.  It is also a recently added Warren Buffett stock as Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) has almost 1.5 million shares of common stock now.  That Buffett stake is likely to increase as Buffett and his portfolio managers understand the secular trends here.

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) still has control over Dollar General.  The one caveat we have always had with this one is that insiders tend to unload blocks of shares when there is a price spike.  We would not be surprised if that happens again, and that dip is most likely just another opportunity to get in cheaper.

Earlier in the pre-market we had shares up at $35.50, which would have been a new 52-week high.  With an hour until the open, the stock is up almost 3% at $34.80 and the 52-week trading range is $26.64 to $35.09.

Challenging 52-week highs even with a huge share overhang is more than impressive enough.  Dollar General is a winner of “the trade-down economy” and this does not seem to be just a fad.  This seems to be a secular trend, and the company manages to keep reaching up for more and more business as well.

JON C. OGG

Big Lots reported adjusted EPS of $0.52, beating the consensus estimate of $0.44, and revenue of $1.17 billion, barely above an estimate of $1.16 billion. The company also raised its full-year EPS guidance to $2.80-$2.90, the top of which is in-line with a consensus estimate of $2.89. The company’s shares have gained about 7% in the past 12 months.

Several of its competitors, and near-competitors, have posted similar 12-month gains. 99 Cents Only Stores (NYSE: NDN) and Tuesday Morning Corp. (NASDAQ: TUES) fall into the same range. Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) shares have risen about 15%, and Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) shares have jumped 50%.

Since the beginning of the year though, Tuesday Morning shares are down nearly -30% and Dollar Tree’s gains have grown by less than half as much. The biggest portion of these stores’ 12-months gains came during the 2010 holiday season.

A March buyout offer for 99 Cents Only from Leonard Green & Partners gave the company’s shares a boost in March, and there is a rumored counter-offer coming from Apollo Global Management. Tuesday Morning announced a $5 million share buyback program a couple of days ago to give its share price a needed boost. Seasonal impacts are also having an effect.

As the back-to-school season nears its end, the stores have jumped back from a dive at the beginning of the month related to the downgrade of US debt. Solid back-to-school sales could put these stores in a position to reap even larger benefits for the coming holiday season.

Face it, the US economy is not going to get any stronger between now and the end of the year. The deep discounters aren’t going to lose any customers to pricier competitors like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) or Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). If anything, the dollar stores will gain customers.

Big Lots shares are down about -0.25% in the early afternoon, at $32.29, in a 52-week range of $27.82-$44.44. 99 Cents Only shares are down nearly -1%, at $18.25, in a 52-week range of $14.32-$20.75. Tuesday Morning’s shares are off more than -2.5%, at $3.72, in a 52-week range of $3.38-$5.93. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) is down more than -2%, at $46.10, in a 52-week range of $35.79-$56.44.

Paul Ausick