Posts for Ticker ‘BONT’

Another Look At The Fate Of The US Retail Industry

bear1AlixPartners, a turnaround firm, said at the beginning of the year that 10% to 26% of retailers were in financial distress and were in danger of filing for Chapter 11. It is worth considering how the researchers came up with that number, given that there are tens of thousands of retailers and hundreds of thousands of stores in America. Why wasn’t the number 9% or 27%? The answer is that the forecast is virtually useless, something like counting the number of poisonous snakes in an “Indian Jones” movie. Read More »

S&P Pans Retailer Ratings (DDS, M, JWN, JCP, SHLD, BONT, KSS, SKS)

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has put six department store companies on CreditWatch with negative implications and has changed the outlook on three department store companies to negative from stable.  Moody’s & Fitch either downgraded or warned of possible downgrades.  Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD), Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) were all part of the S&P call late today.

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If 25% Of American Retailers Go Bankrupt, Which Companies Make The List?

R218533_85502524/7 Wall St. has already provided a list of retailers who may well not make it through 2009. According to The Wall Street Journal, "AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010."

So, which chains are at risk as the year draws to a close, especially now that holiday numbers are even worse than expected?

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The Black Friday Ten: Retailers Who May Not See 2009 (BONT)(DDS)(TLB)(PIR)(CPWM)(WSM)(CHS)(SKS)(EBHI)(RAD)

Angrybear_3A year ago, not many people would have thought Circuit City would be in bankruptcy now. Linens ‘n Things, Mervyn’s, Whitehall Jewelers and Steve & Barry’s have either shut down or are closing huge numbers of locations since they moved into Chapter 11.

The most astonishing fact about the retail industry now is that the environment has gotten much worse than it was when each of these businesses began to fail. Sales at stores across the country will be down this holiday season. Some analysts believe that the numbers will be as bad as for any fourth quarter in thirty-five years.

Adding to the problem of slow consumer spending brought on by the recession is an unprecedented liquidity crisis. Retailers who need access to capital for inventory, rent, and personnel costs are finding that it is nearly impossible to get access to funds without a pristine balance sheet and a history of substantial positive cash flow.

These troubles point to a number of other retail chains going out of business between now and early next year. Sales on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which is considered the bellwether of holiday sales, will determine the fate of several companies which are now viewed as the weakest operators in the industry.

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52-Week Low Club (December 28, 2007)

Some of these stocks hit 52-week lows and recovered off of lows so they won’t have a low close.  But these did all touch or breach the 52-week lows.  At the end we also broke out retail stocks, financial stocks, airlines & transports, and hotels.  A separate report could have been compiled for REIT’s as well, but many of those were left off because of room or volume. There were enough 52-week lows today that you might even wonder if there had been a mini-crash in the markets.  Here are the 52-week lows for December 28, 2007:

  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)… imagine if the company got Hector Ruiz to leave.
  • American Greetings (NYSE: AM)…again.
  • AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN)… new entrant.
  • Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC)
  • ChipMOS (NASDAQ:IMOS)
  • Corp. Office Property (NYSE: OFC)
  • Cryptologic (NASDAQ: CRYP)
  • Diebold (NYSE:DBD)
  • Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO)
  • Group 1 Auto (NYSE: GPI)
  • Infinera Corp. (NASDAQ: INFN)
  • Introgen (NASDAQ:INGN)
  • Japan Smaller Cap Fund (NYSE: JOF)
  • Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR)
  • Legget & Platt (NYSE: LEG)
  • Martha Stewart (NYSE: MSO)
  • Marvell Tech (NASDAQ:MRVL)
  • Mattel (NYSE:MAT)
  • McClatchy (NYSE:MNI)
  • Micron Tech (NYSE:MU)
  • NGAS Resources (NASDAQ:NGAS)
  • Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT)
  • Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)
  • Omnicare (NYSE:OCR)
  • Prestige Brand (NYSE: PBH)
  • PC-Tel (NASDAQ:PCTI)
  • Ruth’s Chris (NASDAQ:RUTH)
  • SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
  • Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX)
  • Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO)
  • Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN)
  • World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT)
  • U-Store-It (NYSE:YSI)

Retail Stocks on 52-week lows: Ann Taylor (NYSE:ANN), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), Borders Group (NYSE:BGP), Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT), Chico’s FAS (NYSE:CHS), Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL), Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Macy’s (NYSE: M), Office Max (NYSE:OMX), Petsmart (NASDAQ:PETM), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)

Financial stocks on 52-week lows: Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Canseco (NYSE: CNO), Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM)… urgh!  When does it stop?

Airlines/Transports on 52-week lows:  Airtran Holdings (NYSE: AAI)…again.  Did they launch a Friends Die Free rewards plan?  Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL), Fedex (NYSE:FDX), Mesa Air (NASDAQ:MESA), Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA)… near $100 oil is a real pain.

Hotels Hitting 52-week lows: Host Hotels (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel (NYSE: LHO), Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT), Sunstone Hotel (NYSE: SHO), Wydham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN).  Maybe these all wish they could get the private equity buyers back in the sector.  If only they could still borrow.

These CEO’s new year’s resolutions are all the same: "In 2008 I want to keep my stock off the 52-week low lists."

Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007

52-Week Low Club (BIG, BONT, CHS, M, OMX, SSI, HOT, ZLC, RT, F, WM, BSC)

We didn’t include only retail names on the 52-week lows today, but it could have been easy to do.  The retail scene just didn’t do too hot over Christmas and these are pying the price.  The good news is that many of these names bounced back above their 52-week lows.

Here are the retail names alone:

  • Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) still slurping.
  • Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT)
  • Chico’s FAS (NYSE: CHS)
  • Macy’s (NYSE: M)
  • Office Max (NYSE: OMX)
  • Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)
  • Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT)
  • Zale’s (NYSE: ZLC)

Ford (NYSE: F) merely touched on its 52-week lows but didn’t put in any new 52-week lows.  Maybe this one isn’t quite retail, but it sure reflects a weak consumer. 

Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT) is in the same boat as it isn’t a retail store but is consumer discretionary (and the food is nothing special).

A couple surprise financial names are on today’s list, although maybe it isn’t that large of a surprise.  Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) didn’t stay that low, but it was looking dismal this morning.  Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) also didn’t stay that low but this morning was looking a bit harsh for WA-MU.

Jon C. Ogg
December 26, 2007

Cramer Lightening the Negativity on Dell?

Stock Tickers: BONT, DELL, JDSA

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Cramer said the market is taking the wrong cue as it is down on strong housing and down on oil prices lower.  This is a deadly pattern going into a 3-day weekend and that means you can’t buy the market.

Bon-Ton (BONT) is a buy with it down 10%, BUT he jokingly said that Bon-Ton makes Wal-Mart look special if you shop there.

On Dell (DELL), Cramer said while he doesn’t love it you can’t have a SELL rating on it anymore.  He was going to say more but had to go on.

Jones Soda (JSDA)…"sell it until it gets to $19.00."

Jon C. Ogg
May 24, 2007

Jon C. Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.