The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 33 points to12,675.75 (-0.26%), the NASDAQ rose just 2 points (0.09%) to 2,786.64, and the S&P 500 fell -0.10% or just more than 1 point to 1,314.63.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) maintained as ‘outperform’ with a $100 target price at Credit Suisse; Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) maintained as ‘outperform’ but estimates lowered at Credit Suisse; Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) maintained as ‘buy’ but target price lowered to $54 at Argus; Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $51 at Argus; ;and Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS) started as ‘overweight’ at Morgan Stanley, as ‘outperform’ at Baird, and as ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Earnings reports since markets closed on last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) is down nearly -3% at $87.29; Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) is down -0.57% at $47.46; Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is up 2% at $1.79; EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) is up 6.7% at $25.01; Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) is up 6.2% at $36.85; CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) is down -3.5% at $21.89; and Zions Bancorp. (NYSE: ZION) is down -7.6% at $17.15. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reports earnings after markets close today. See our coverage here.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

BioLineRx Ltd. (NASDAQ: BLRX) is up nearly 79% at $5.88 after posting a new 52-week high today of $6.87. The biopharmaceutical company has signed an exclusive worldwide licensing agreement with a French company to develop and market its hepatitis C drug.

Lee Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: LEE) is up more than 26% at $1.39. The newspaper company has been granted permission to exit bankruptcy protection.

The Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT) is up nearly 18% at $3.81. The department store operator has hired a new CEO who was previously the CEO at Lord & Taylor, before that chain was acquired by a Canadian company.

InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) is down nearly -20% at $35.68. The wireless technology developed has shut down its “strategic review” without finding a buyer and will continue to seek additional patent sales and licensing agreements.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACHN) is up more than 17% at $10.79. The drug company, which is developing its own hepatitis C drug, is enjoying a halo effect from BioLineRx’s announcement.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. President Barack Obama delivers his state of the union address at 9:00 P.M ET tonight. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
• 10:00 a.m. – Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 10:30 a.m. – 5-year Treasury note auction
• 2:15 p.m. – Fed chairman Ben Bernanke press conference

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Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 25 points to 11,796.23 (0.22%), the NASDAQ fell more than 15 points (-0.60%) to 2,572.50, and the S&P 500 fell 0.04% or about 0.48 points to 1,215.65.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), which was raised to ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee. Other action included The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) started as ‘hold’ at Jefferies; and Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) started as ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Ann Inc. (NYSE: ANN) is down more than -6.6%, at $23.63; Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) is up more than 3%, at $7.88; H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) is down more than -3%, at $51.06; America’s Car Mart, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) is up more than 10%, at $35.84; Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is down more than -10.5%, at $112.67; and The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT) is down more than -8%, at $2.84, after posting a new 52-week low of $2.70 earlier today.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) is up about 2.9%, at $152.46. The company’s stock got pounded yesterday on news that the corn prices fell, but are recovering a bit today as investors remember that falling corn prices don’t necessarily mean that less corn will be planted and, thus, less fertilizer will be used.

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is up more than 4.6%, at $53.12. Another fertilizer maker that got slammed yesterday and is recovering somewhat today.

Fisher Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: FSCI) is up about 12.7%, at $29.20. The broadcast TV station operator has sold its Fisher Plaza building in Seattle for $160 million in cash to Hines Global REIT, Inc.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is down nearly -21%, at $1.47. The company is reported to be considering skipping a $237 million debt payment due in two weeks, raising fears that the wireless broadband provider could end up in bankruptcy.

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE: MTOR) is down about -9.7%, at $5.12, after posting a new 52-week low of $5.11 earlier in the day. Shares lost -17% earlier this week when the company lowered its guidance for 2012 and the stock was downgraded today from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ at KeyBanc.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is up more than ;6.8%, at $14.70. The chip maker reported so-so earnings yesterday, but strong positive statements by analysts at FBR and Citi have turned broken eggs into an omelette.

Stay tuned for Monday. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart is speaking in Brazil. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank national activity index
• 10:00 a.m. – National Association of Retailers existing home sales report

Have a great weekend.

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Paul Ausick

The only way to see what will happen in the retail industry in the next several quarters is to watch it like a hawk today. The first impression that many people get is that the retail business is OK because Wal-Mart is doing so well. But,  Wal-Mart is the exception to the rule.  Sam Walton’s company continues do well because its tremendous buying power, distribution, and brand allows it to attract customers who get relatively high quality products for very little money. Its success removes a great deal of the foot traffic from the rest of the industry.

For a more realistic view of how stores are fairing under the withering decrease in demand caused by the recession, Ann Taylor (ANN) is a good example for analysis. In the fourth quarter, its sales dropped 20% to $483 million. It will close 163 of its stores. That is from a total of 935. The company’s stock now trades at $2.82, down from a 52-week high of $29.23. Most of that collapse occurred over the last six months.

Ann Taylor does not sell expensive clothes and accessories and it does not sell cheap ones. That puts it right in the center of the drop-off in middle class buying power. Firms including Liz Claiborne (LIZ) and Talbot’s (TAL) are in about the same spot. Ann Taylor is probably much better off than genuinely failing retailers including Bon-Ton (BONT) and Gap (GPS).  Ann Taylor, of course, is not Wal-Mart which will most likely stay in a world all its own for the duration of the downturn.

In the meantime, Ann Taylor will close nearly 20% of its stores. The company has 5,500 workers. A lot of those people will lose their jobs. Closing 20% of the Ann Taylor stores is probably about right. This forecast is as accurate as any available because it is based on real trends in the retail industry.

If large retailers close 20% or so of their stores, most of them will avoid becoming distressed or candidates for Chapter 11. The AjixPartner’s estimate was too high and did not take into account the rate at which the industry could cut off limbs to save the body.

Is the fate of retailers likely to be better than some of the most pessimistic forecasts? Yes. But, for this to happen big retail operations will have to do the hard thing and lots of people will lose their jobs.

Douglas A. McIntyre

This is over a deepening concern about the impact of the recession on department stores.  More importantly,it expects that the downturn to get worse in first half of2009.  This is based upon weakening employment, a declining housingmarket and continuing financial market turmoil.  The ratingsagency expects cost cutting and inventory management to protect marginsbut expects that margins will continue to erode based on weak consumerdemand, little sales leverage, and over discounted sales expectations.

Further, the declining profitability is expected to hurt enough toresult in downgrades in some cases.  This is not written in sand andthe CreditWatch listings should be resolved within 90 days.

S&P also noted that companies which forgo discretionary capitalspending and which reduce costs to preserve balance-sheet strengthshould be viewed favorably in this ongoing review.

Here are the ratings under review:

Ratings Placed On CreditWatch              To                 From
Dillard’s Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                B+/Watch Neg/–    B+/Stable/–
Macy’s Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB-/Negative/A-3
Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (The)
Corporate Credit Rating                B+/Watch Neg/–    B+/Negative/–
Nordstrom Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                A-/Watch Neg/A-2   A-/Negative/A-2
Penney (J.C.) Co. Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                BBB-/Watch Neg/–  BBB-/Negative/–
Sears Holdings Corp.
Corporate Credit Rating                BB-/Watch Neg/–   BB-/Negative/–
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action             To                 From
Bon-Ton Stores Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                B-/Negative/–     B-/Stable/–
Kohl’s Corp.
Corporate Credit Rating                BBB+/Negative/–   BBB+/Stable/–
Saks Inc.
Corporate Credit Rating                B/Negative/–      B/Stable/–

Our only problem with the S&P warning here is that there is justabout no way that things will get better at ANY of these stores.  We do not disagree with any of the reviewed issues, but we doubt these and most other retailers can or will take the necessary steps to pinch costs and to operate better.  Evenif the Obama stimulus package handed out checks of a hypothetical$3,000.00 to families, this might go under the mattress or go towardpaying off debt and creditors.  It feels like a no-win scenario. 

Hoping is always a poor investment and business strategy.

Jon C. Ogg
February 5, 2009

So, which chains are at risk as the year draws to a close, especially now that holiday numbers are even worse than expected?

The "easy" list that many analysts come up with includes Bon-Ton (BONT), Talbots (TLB), and Saks (SKS). These chains were mentioned in both the 24/7 Wall St. and Wall Street Journal articles.

One of the most pressing issues for the industry is whether a very large retail operation will go into Chapter 11 or be sold, putting tens of thousands of people out of work with one stroke. Six months ago, that seemed very unlikely. With 2008 being the worst holiday sales period in decades and 2009 shaping up to be even worse, the number of jobs at risk has become significantly more considerable.

One weak operation which could end up being sold is Gap (GPS). The company has 150,000 workers. The firm’s shares were nearly $22 a year ago. They now trade under $13. Gap’s chains, Gap, Old Navy and Banana Republic, have posted double-digit same-store sales declines for many of the months during 2008. Friedman Billings Ramsey recently said that its expects sales to get worse in 2009. If that is true, Gap may not make it through the year as an independent company.

The other large retail operator that will almost certainly suffer double-digit same-store declines in 2009 is Sears (SHLD). It has already posted frightening numbers for most of 2008. A really hard holiday season means that the company will either have to close hundreds of stores or perhaps eliminate one of its two huge brands–K-Mart or Sears. Over the last year, shares of Sears have dropped from a 52-week high of $114 to $37. Moody’s recently warned it may cut Moody’s Sears’s corporate credit rating from "Ba1," one step below investment grade, according to Reuters. Sears is unlikely to go out of business but a lot of its 337,000 employees could be out of work next year.

In 2009, retail may shed more jobs that any other segment of economy.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The most astonishing fact about the retail industry now is that the environment has gotten much worse than it was when each of these businesses began to fail. Sales at stores across the country will be down this holiday season. Some analysts believe that the numbers will be as bad as for any fourth quarter in thirty-five years.

Adding to the problem of slow consumer spending brought on by the recession is an unprecedented liquidity crisis. Retailers who need access to capital for inventory, rent, and personnel costs are finding that it is nearly impossible to get access to funds without a pristine balance sheet and a history of substantial positive cash flow.

These troubles point to a number of other retail chains going out of business between now and early next year. Sales on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, which is considered the bellwether of holiday sales, will determine the fate of several companies which are now viewed as the weakest operators in the industry.

Here is a list of ten companies which may well not make it if their sales drop by double digits this holiday season compared to last:

1. Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) trades at $1.13, down from a 52-week high of $15.06. That probably says all that needs to be said, but there is more. Over its last three fiscal quarters BONT has lost $82 million. In the latest quarter, same-store sales were off over 8% and total revenue was down 7% to $725 million. The company has interest expense of $25 million. BONT says that its revolving credit facility will get it through any cash crunch. Maybe. With long-term debt of $2.5 billion and $374 million in accounts payable, there is not much margin for error. The company needs an outstanding holiday season.

2. Dillard’s (DDS) is a retail operator that really is in trouble. It has 318 stores, which makes it a relatively small operation in a world dominated by outfits like Sears (SHLD) which has more than 3000 locations. Dillard’s stock is at $3.75, down from a 52-week high of $23.11. S&P dropped the company’s credit rating recently and said, "The rating change reflects our belief that the company will be more challenged than previously expected by the current weak economic environment in the U.S., and that credit metrics will deteriorate more than we had originally projected." In October, the firm’s sales dropped more than 9% to $406 million. Dillard’s points to its revolving credit facility with JP Morgan as its lifeline. In the last quarter, the company lost $38 million. It made $45 million in debt services payments and has long-term debt of $807 million. In other words, no dry powder. It recently cut staff.

3. Talbots (TLB) is another struggling operator. It recently announced that it would try to sell its J. Jill brand. This operation has 383 of Talbots 878 stories. It would be an understatement to say a company would part with that much of its operation if it did not need the money. And, TLB does. Its shares are at $2.68, down from a 52-week high of $17.97. Research house Friedman, Billings, Ramsey recently predicted that the chain would cut its dividend to save money. In the last quarter, TLB lost $15 million. Revenue fell from $414 million in the period a year ago to $357 million in the most recent quarter. Talbots has $212 million in long-term debt. It can’t afford to have sales fall another $50 million this holiday quarter. Recently, it improved working capital agreements.

4. Pier 1′s (PIR) shares are on sale for $.50.  A little less than a year ago they would have cost $8.25, making this a remarkable write-down. PIR said its Q3 same-store sales would be down as much as 18%. The firm says it has a $325 million credit facility, but the stock market clearly thinks that is inadequate. The company’s guidance for the quarter sent shareholders running for the exits. In the last quarter, revenue fell 7% and the company lost $30 million. Pier 1 pulled its guidance because it believes it cannot predict how much the retail market will deteriorate. With $183 million in debt, it won’t take much to tip Pier 1 into insolvency. UBS recently cut its price target on the shares.

5. Cost Plus (CPWM) recently released earnings, and they looked grim. Among other things, the chain said same-store sales could drop 6% in the current quarter. The 296-store retailer predicted poor revenue of as little as $356 million for the period. In the quarter just past, revenue was flat at $213 million and Cost Plus lost $26 million. The firm has $146 million in long-term debt and obligations. Cost Plus pointed out that its credit line borrowings peaked at $125 million in November, well under the limit of the $200 million credit facility. But, that does not leave much room for the company to miss its numbers. The stock trades at $1, down from a 52-week high of $6.22.

6. Williams-Sonoma (WSM) operates 600 stores. The company is doing badly enough that Barclays Capital recently said that it may violate financial covenants on its $300 million credit facility. The retailer made a sharp downward revision in its forecasts. It said it would lose as much as $.12 a share in the third quarter against its previous projection of as much as a $.04 profit. It took its revenue forecast down as low as $732 million. The earlier projection had sales as high as $820 million.  WSM also made extremely sharp cuts in its projections for the fourth quarter. Lenders take loan covenants more seriously in a recession than during other periods. WSM has to beat its numbers or face a chance of its lenders pushing for remedies. The CEO recently forced to sell over 60% of shares due to financial obligations.

7. Chico’s FAS (CHS) trades fairly close to its cash value, a sign that the market thinks that operations are going to burn into that nest egg. The company’s stock trades at $2.58, down from a 52-week high of $11.68, showing that the market does not have many believers in the company. In October, the chain’s same-store sales were off over 13%. For the month, revenue dropped 5% to $394 million. In the last quarter, revenue dropped 5% to $394 million. Net income was $2 million, down from $24 million in the same quarter a year ago. The company had $278 million in cash and securities. But, it cannot sustain double-digit drops in same-store sales indefinitely. The company recently entered into a new credit agreement to help its capital position.

8. Fitch recently cut its ratings on Saks (SKS) to "B" from "B+", hardly investment grade. The retailer has debt of $649 million. In the last quarter, Saks same-store sales were off almost 12% and got progressively worse as each month in the period went by. Like other weak retailers, Saks is in a race to improve sales and earnings before its debt catches up to it. The firm’s stock has dropped to $3.56 from a 52-week high of $22.19. In the last quarter, Saks lost $43 million. In its statement about its financial situation, the company said it believes it has ample flexibility under its existing debt facilities. If Saks’ drop-off in revenue continues from last quarter’s rate of 12% or gets considerably worse over the holidays, the chain could have a very difficult time keeping all of its stores open.

9. Eddie Bauer’s (EBHI) shares trade for $.97, down from a 52-week high of $8.72. The company recently reported an operating loss of $17 million. Revenue dropped slightly to $207 million. The firm has almost 400 stores and outlets. The worst bit of news is that, as of the end of the last quarter, EBHI had only $3 million in cash. It has a $192 million senior term note and $27 million in short term borrowing. It would be nearly impossible to convince investors that EBHI will make it well into next year if sales are poor this holiday season

10. Rite Aid (RAD) is an example of a company that proved the old maxim, "what can go wrong, will go wrong". Its shares are at $.41, down from a 52-week high of $4.72. Rite Aid is bloated with over 5,000 stores, some of which are certainly losing money. The pharmacy company has competition from huge operators including Wal-Mart (WMT). The firm has a massive debt load of $6.1 billion. Rite Aid says that refinancing the load may help its prospects. A Raymond James analyst recently said, "Rite Aid has the worst balance sheet of any company I follow." In the quarter ending August 30, the company’s loss rose to $222 million and its integration of its Brooks and Eckerd drugstore chains appears to be going very badly. Rite Aid also cut forecasts due to "economic weakness". This kind of weakness usually leads to death.

Merry Christmas

• Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD)… imagine if the company got Hector Ruiz to leave.
• American Greetings (NYSE: AM)…again.
• AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN)… new entrant.
• Carmike Cinemas (NASDAQ:CKEC)
• ChipMOS (NASDAQ:IMOS)
• Corp. Office Property (NYSE: OFC)
• Cryptologic (NASDAQ: CRYP)
• Diebold (NYSE:DBD)
• Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO)
• Group 1 Auto (NYSE: GPI)
• Infinera Corp. (NASDAQ: INFN)
• Introgen (NASDAQ:INGN)
• Japan Smaller Cap Fund (NYSE: JOF)
• Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR)
• Legget & Platt (NYSE: LEG)
• Martha Stewart (NYSE: MSO)
• Marvell Tech (NASDAQ:MRVL)
• Mattel (NYSE:MAT)
• McClatchy (NYSE:MNI)
• Micron Tech (NYSE:MU)
• NGAS Resources (NASDAQ:NGAS)
• Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT)
• Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)
• Omnicare (NYSE:OCR)
• Prestige Brand (NYSE: PBH)
• PC-Tel (NASDAQ:PCTI)
• Ruth’s Chris (NASDAQ:RUTH)
• SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK)
• Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX)
• Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO)
• Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN)
• World Fuel Services (NYSE:INT)
• U-Store-It (NYSE:YSI)

Retail Stocks on 52-week lows: Ann Taylor (NYSE:ANN), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG), Borders Group (NYSE:BGP), Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT), Chico’s FAS (NYSE:CHS), Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL), Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ), Macy’s (NYSE: M), Office Max (NYSE:OMX), Petsmart (NASDAQ:PETM), Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)

Financial stocks on 52-week lows: Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Canseco (NYSE: CNO), Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Fortress Investment (NYSE: FIG), MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM)… urgh!  When does it stop?

Airlines/Transports on 52-week lows:  Airtran Holdings (NYSE: AAI)…again.  Did they launch a Friends Die Free rewards plan?  Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL), Fedex (NYSE:FDX), Mesa Air (NASDAQ:MESA), Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA)… near $100 oil is a real pain.

Hotels Hitting 52-week lows: Host Hotels (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel (NYSE: LHO), Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT), Sunstone Hotel (NYSE: SHO), Wydham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN).  Maybe these all wish they could get the private equity buyers back in the sector.  If only they could still borrow.

These CEO’s new year’s resolutions are all the same: "In 2008 I want to keep my stock off the 52-week low lists."

Jon C. Ogg
December 28, 2007

Here are the retail names alone:

• Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) still slurping.
• Bon Ton Stores (NASDAQ:BONT)
• Chico’s FAS (NYSE: CHS)
• Macy’s (NYSE: M)
• Office Max (NYSE: OMX)
• Stage Stores (NYSE:SSI)
• Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT)
• Zale’s (NYSE: ZLC)

Ford (NYSE: F) merely touched on its 52-week lows but didn’t put in any new 52-week lows.  Maybe this one isn’t quite retail, but it sure reflects a weak consumer. 

Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT) is in the same boat as it isn’t a retail store but is consumer discretionary (and the food is nothing special).

A couple surprise financial names are on today’s list, although maybe it isn’t that large of a surprise.  Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) didn’t stay that low, but it was looking dismal this morning.  Washington Mutual (NYSE:WM) also didn’t stay that low but this morning was looking a bit harsh for WA-MU.

Jon C. Ogg
December 26, 2007

On today’s STOP TRADING on CNBC, Cramer said the market is taking the wrong cue as it is down on strong housing and down on oil prices lower.  This is a deadly pattern going into a 3-day weekend and that means you can’t buy the market.

Bon-Ton (BONT) is a buy with it down 10%, BUT he jokingly said that Bon-Ton makes Wal-Mart look special if you shop there.

On Dell (DELL), Cramer said while he doesn’t love it you can’t have a SELL rating on it anymore.  He was going to say more but had to go on.

Jones Soda (JSDA)…"sell it until it gets to $19.00."

Jon C. Ogg
May 24, 2007

Jon C. Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.