Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) posts earnings that trouble Wall St. and its shares fall by 10%. (Reuters)

A deal on mortgage data and foreclosures between five banks and state attorneys general is close to being done. The amount of the settlement will be about $25 billion. (Reuters)

Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) posts a drop in Q4 results. (Reuters)

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) posts poor results due to metal prices. (Reuters)

Levovo beats earnings forecasts as its market share rises, and it will produce a TV product for Chinese consumers. (Reuters)

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to launch a cloud storage product. (WSJ)

The House probably will approve a bill to regulate insider trading by members of Congress and their staffs. (WSJ)

China and Canada to increase official trade relations. (WSJ)

China’s CPI rises to 4.5% in January — up from 4.1% in December. (WSJ)

Some car companies press sales in Indonesia as the number of drivers there surges. (WSJ)

Chrysler may set a deal with banks for consumer and dealer loans that would replace its relationship with Ally. (WSJ)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) tightens it approval process for apps used on the iPad and iPhone. (WSJ)

Petrobras (NYSE: PTR) estimates of its reserves and the P&L they may create could be too optimistic. (WSJ)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) buys much of AIG’s (NYSE: AIG) troubled bond portfolio, which dates back to 2008. (WSJ)

Two million homeowners could benefit from a $25 billion settlement over mortgages reached between five banks and the government. (NYT)

Car sales in China fall 24% in January. (NYT)

Young people are watching TV more and more on PCs. (NYT)

BP (NYSE: BP) is conversing with the U.S. government over claims from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and may settle. (Bloomberg)

Sarkozy’s approval ratings in France are near all-time lows for a president. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) Cut to Sell at S&P Capital IQ.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) Raised Estimates by UBS; Cut to Hold at Soc-Gen.
CBOE Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBOE) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. (NYSE: RDY) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
ING Group, N.V. (NYSE: ING) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Cut to Hold at Collins Stewart.
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV) raised target to $96 at Argus.
OpenTable Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer; Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse; Raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.
Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) lowered targets by Credit Suisse and Nomura.
UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (NYSE: VSH) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) Raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Credit Suisse makes a change to its favorite biotech list.

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 33 points to 12,878.43 (0.26%), the NASDAQ rose more than 2 points (0.07%) to 2,904.08, and the S&P 500 rose 0.20% or nearly 3 points to 1,347.05.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) started as ‘underweight’ at Barclays; IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) started as ‘buy’ with a $230 target price at Sterne Agee (our coverage here); AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) cut to ‘sell’ at Brean Murray; and Zoltek Cos. Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT) cut to ‘underperform’ at Needham (our coverage here).

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is up 2.67% at $64.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $65.79 earlier today; ArcelorMittal AS (NYSE: MT) is up 3.5% at $22.19; BP plc (NYSE: BP) is down -0.41% at $46.68; Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) is up 1% at $68.71 (our coverage here); Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) is down -2.6% at $51.99; and Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (NYSE: LPX) is down -6.5% at $8.31 (our coverage here).

Our preview of tomorrow’s earnings releases is here.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

The McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI) is up 21% at $2.71. The newspaper company reported stronger-than-expected earnings today on cost-cutting.

Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) is up 16.5% at $58.90 after posting a new 52-week high of $60.81 earlier today. The video rental company will join with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to offer a streaming video service to compete with Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and others. More coverage here and here.

Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF) is up 15.8% at $4.69 after posting a new 52-week high of $4.85 earlier today. The homebuilder posted good earnings today and reported that orders are up 8% in January.

Nevsun Resources Ltd. (AMEX: NSU) is down more than -30% at $4.43. The junior gold miner issued a preliminary 2012 outlook that included a sharp drop in production and in its reserves estimates.

BioSante Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BPAX) is down more than -18% at $0.86. The company is the target of a new lawsuit charging it with misrepresentation. We have more coverage of BioSante here.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams is giving a speech. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications report
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
• 1:00 p.m. – Treasury 10-year note auction

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Paul Ausick

BP Fights On

The crisis at BP (NYSE: BP) due to the Deepwater Horizon disaster seems long gone. It is not. BP signaled an improvement of its financial health with a dividend increase. At almost the same time, the UK-based firm said it would “vigorously” contest suits against it because of the spill. That vigorous defense of actions will take years. The first major suits against it will be filed this month. Large liability cases brought by governments and private enterprises against major companies before indicate that the process of trial and settlement talks can drag on seemingly forever.

Toyota’s Recovery

Toyota (NYSE: TM) announced the start of an unexpectedly rapid comeback from recall problems and the shuttering of many of its plants due to the Japanese earthquake of last March and more recent interruptions of its supply lines due to floods in Thailand. Toyota made $1.1 billion in the quarter that ended in December. Toyota raised forecasts for net and operating profit. The company still has to regain market share in the U.S. and gain on Volkswagen and General Motors (NYSE: GM) in China, the world’s largest car market. Its market share in the U.S. reached almost 18% four years ago, and it briefly moved ahead of Ford (NYSE: F). Its portion of the market is down to about 12%, and its has competition from resurrected GM and Chrysler, as well has rapidly selling new cars and light trucks made by South Korean manufacturing behemoth Hyundai.

Lumia 900 Launch

Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK) Lumia 900, its new flagship product, is about to go on sale in the U.S. The launch carries with it the hopes of a comeback for the world’s largest handset maker and its software partner Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). Microsoft has had terrible trouble as it struggled to sell its mobile OS against Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL), as well as smartphones that use the Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android platform. The recent history of smartphone launches shows that the fate of products usually is determined in the first few days they are available. Reports of strong sales bring new customers into stores. Reports of weak sales cause analysts and the press to label a new product DOA.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Greek leaders face a deal for settling sovereign debt matters as workers strike. (Reuters)

Toyota (NYSE: TM) posts good third-quarter profits and says the U.S. will be a difficult market. (Reuters)

Boeing (NYSE: BA) may have trouble with its 787 deliveries after flaws were found in the body of the aircraft. (Reuters)

Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and Redbox set a deal to compete with Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). (Reuters)

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) may open a physical store in Seattle. (Reuters)

House Republicans move to reopen debate on the Keystone XL pipeline. (Reuters)

Problems with regulators have made the Medco (NYSE: MHS) merger with Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) less likely. (Reuters)

The U.S. will create programs to help the troubled money market industry. (WSJ)

Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) will bid as the New York Fed auctions risky bonds it got as part of its AIG (NYSE: AIG) bailout. (WSJ)

Greece will cut 15,000 public sector jobs. (WSJ)

Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) wants a 2.25% royalty on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone sales based on IP claims. (WSJ)

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Univision are in talks to create a 24-hour news channel. (WSJ)

India cuts its growth forecast to 6.9%. (WSJ)

Eugene Isenberg of Nabor Industries (NYSE: NBR) gives up a $100 million retirement payout. (WSJ)

The Obama budget will have $3 trillion in cuts over 10 years and $1.5 trillion in new taxes — mostly on the rich. (WSJ)

Japan wants to enter a large Asia-Pacific trade agreement, but the U.S. may object. (WSJ)

Satellite makers say that U.S. regulations make it difficult for them to compete overseas. (WSJ)

Republic Airways (NASDAQ: RJET) is about to sell Frontier. (WSJ)

New LeadershipIQ research breaks companies into four groups based on management style and systems to create results. (WSJ)

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) promotes a manager to be the new CEO of its China operations. (WSJ)

Some large European banks will not take European Central Bank loans because they fear it will make them appear weak. (WSJ)

BP (NYSE: BP) raises its dividend. (FT)

An escrow fund may be set to help Greece instead of all aid money going to the nation directly. (FT)

Farmers to plant the largest corn crop since 1984. (Bloomberg)

Walmart will lower fat, sodium and sugar in some foods. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

We have compiled previews using Thomson Reuters consensus data and have added color on each if applicable.
 
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) is going to be closely watched by the dividend investors because of that 13% implied dividend yield.  The mortgage REIT is expected to report $0.56 per share.

Bp Plc (NYSE: BP) has recovered handily from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster.  This is an ADR so its earnings will be converted from U.K. Pounds… The estimate is $1.57 per share and the stock is up well over 50% from when its shares sold off so much in 2010.  Keep in mind that this was a $60 stock before the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) is not so hot after the Super Bowl and we are six weeks from the next mega-event in sports.  Estimates are $0.67 EPS and $210.25 million.  This one remains expensive at almost 22-times full 2012 earnings expectations and it is only about $2.00 shy of a 52-week and all-time high.

Cerner Corporation (NASDAQ: CERN) is expected to report $0.53 EPS and $586.86 million in sales.  At $63.20, the 52-week trading range for the healthcare information technology and support company is $53.93 to $74.39.

Church & Dwight Co. (NYSE: CHD) is expected to report $0.51 EPS and $694.32 million.  At $45.50, the 52-week range is $33.83 to $47.00.  This consumer products company remains at a large valuation premium to its larger consumer products rivals and it also has a much lower dividend yield.

A judge rules that some of the Gulf spill costs to be covered by Transocean (NYSE: RIG) will be covered by BP (NYSE: BP) instead. (Reuters)

Samsung had record profits on smartphone sales and will increase capex by $22 billion. (Reuters)

An accounting change at Ford (NYSE: F) will change its profits. (Reuters)

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) overtook Samsung as the largest smartphone company in the world. (Reuters)

Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP) will change how it pays primary doctors on the theory that early care will prevent expensive diseases. (WSJ)

Executives at bankrupt firms continue to get large bonuses. (WSJ)

European officials say adoption of the Volcker Rule will keep banks from buying sovereign debt. (WSJ)

Investors move out of cotton, copper and crude oil. (WSJ)

Twitter will use the ability to censor tweets to move into some countries where it is blocked. (WSJ)

AT&T (NYSE: T) has fallen behind Verizon (NYSE: VZ) in cellphone sales. (WSJ)

EU leaders expect the size of a bailout fund to rise. (WSJ)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) says its new smartphones are selling well. (WSJ)

Businesses increase spending as they move into 2012. (WSJ)

Large central banks will continue to use their balance sheets to help national economies. (WSJ)

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) earnings move higher. (WSJ)

A WPP Group survey shows that consumers rank the performance of global brands higher than they do the moral qualities of the companies that own them. (WSJ)

EU banks that have taken money from the European Central Bank can either keep the money to help their balance sheets or use it to buy risky sovereign debt as a way to stabilize the financials of the region. (WSJ)

IMF studies of the Greek economy show that it is falling apart rapidly. (NYT)

Washington support for wind and solar energy is dropping. (NYT)

The largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, once again turns in strong gains. (NYT)

The Defense Department to cut $485 billion over the next 10 years. (FT)

Large U.S. industrial firms expect sharp growth. (FT)

JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), which considered leaving the most economically damaged markets in Europe, decides to stay, to some extent, for social reasons. (FT)

BNP Paribas will sell its $11 billion energy loan portfolio. (FT)

Investors continue to pressure Apple to begin to pay a dividend out of its $100 billion in cash. (FT)

CDS numbers show increases in the risk of corporate and sovereign paper. (Bloomberg)

Spain’s unemployment reaches 22.9%. (Bloomberg)

As the economy worsens in Europe, General Motors (NYSE: GM) steps up its attempts to restructure Opel. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Greek Default Looms

Each day that passes makes a deal between Greece and private holders of its debt less likely. The nation only has until mid-March to reach a compromise. It needs the next installment of aid from its neighbors by then, or it almost certainly will default. Private investors walked away from negotiations last week. They have now been back in discussions with the Greek government for two days. There is no reason to think that either side has changed it position much. Private investors may believe that other eurozone countries will provide Greece more aid before a default in order to preserve the euro. If the assumption is correct, their debt may be valued at a greater price that Greece wants them to have.

French and Spanish Debt

The global capital markets have partially solved the eurozone debt problem — for now. Spain managed successfully to auction more sovereign paper. The country sold 6.61 billion euros of debt that matures in 2016, 2019 and 2022. France also sold notes at preferential interest rates. The downgrades of these nations by S&P has not hurt their ability to raise money. Perhaps news that the International Monetary Fund wants to increase its fund to rescue local nations by $600 billion has stabilized the markets. There is no economic news to sooth investors, however. Unemployment in the regions continues to rise as GDP expansion suffers.

BP Settlement

Rumors swirl that BP (NYSE: BP) will agree to a settlement of all civil and criminal charges by the U.S. with regard to the Deepwater Horizon disaster. The sum of the settlement will be set at $20 billion to $25 billion. The sum is very large for BP, which has already provided a $20 billion clean-up facility for the Gulf. And such an agreement would not settle claims from private industry or, more importantly, from Gulf coast states. But BP may be able to set its disputes with the U.S. government to rest. That will not by any means solve many of its legal problems. As a matter of fact, a rich deal with the Justice Department actually may encourage other parties to press expensive claims against what will be seen as BP’s deep pockets.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Greece and its private lenders work toward a last-hour compromise on a debt exchange. (Reuters)

BP (NYSE: BP) likely to set a $20 billion to $25 billion deal to settle criminal and civil changes from the U.S. government. (Reuters)

EBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) expresses concerns about European business as it announces earnings. (Reuters)

Online demonstrations against an internet anti-piracy bill prompt some members of Congress to drop their support for the legislation. (Reuters)

Sony Ericsson posts an unexpected Q4 loss ahead of its ownership transfer to Sony (NYSE: SNE). (Reuters)

AT&T (NYSE: T) raises the price of data rates that it charges its wireless subscribers. (Reuters)

The new S&P CEO defends decisions to downgrade the U.S. and EU nations. (WSJ)

The White House rejects plans to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline. (WSJ)

General Motors (NYSE: GM) plans to increase Volt sales. (WSJ)

BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) says it expects record iron ore output this year. (WSJ)

California Governor Brown pushes for temporary tax increases to salvage the state’s finances. (WSJ)

The International Monetary Fund will try to raise several hundred billion dollars to support weak economies. (WSJ)

Italy sets new plans to allow its private businesses be more competitive. (WSJ)

Younger Chinese move much of their media consumption from TV to the internet. (WSJ)

Airbus raises the price of its A320neo. (WSJ)

Facebook adds a number of applications to keep users online for longer. (WSJ)

The SEC approves a merger between NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and Deutsche Boerse. (WSJ)

China was a net seller of Treasuries in November. (WSJ)

The International Energy Agency cuts its oil demand outlook. (WSJ)

Hedge funds may sue Greece in the European Court of Human Rights if the nation does not honor bond obligations. (NYT)

A warm winter hurts retailers that sell goods for cold weather. (NYT)

Natural gas prices hit a decade low. (FT)

Commerzbank and Banca MPS may be low on funds and face partial takeovers by their respective governments. (FT)

PayPal’s numbers help eBay’s earnings. (FT)

UK consumer confidence falls. (Bloomberg)

Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) each expect markets to improve. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

In its announcement Tesoro pointed out the obvious problem:

The discount of WTI to Brent during the fourth quarter narrowed by $18/bbl, dropping from $26/bbl at the end of September to $8/bbl at the end of December. This market price movement impacts fourth quarter results in two ways. First, by reducing benchmark margins at our refineries that run WTI-priced barrels and, second, by reducing the margin on long-haul foreign crude oil barrels indexed to WTI.

Every independent refiner will get hit by this to some degree and we’ve taken a look at what the impact on each might be.

Valero is expected to post EPS of $0.84 in the fourth quarter. The country’s largest refiner owns 16 refineries with a daily throughput volume of 3 million barrels. It is also one of the world’s largest makers of ethanol. Half the refineries are located along the US Gulf Coast, and in the company’s latest investor presentation, WTI margins had fallen from around $26/barrel to around $15/barrel. The company’s Brent margins have stayed relatively flat, at around $10-$11/barrel. To counteract that somewhat, Valero expects to refine about 75,000 barrels/day from the Eagle Ford shale play in the first quarter of 2012. The company is also planning to expand its distillate production to capture the higher margins available from diesel fuel, especially in Europe. Valero hasn’t said anything yet about its fourth quarter earnings, but the company’s stock is down nearly -4% on Tesoro’s report. If Valero revises its earnings estimate — which is likely — another drop of at least that amount is likely.

Marathon completed its spin-off from parent Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) last June. The company owns six refineries and 51% of the company’s crude supply comes from either the US or Canada. The company’s WTI-Brent differential was nearly $23/barrel in the third quarter of this year compared with less than $3.50/barrel in 2010. No data is available for the fourth quarter, but it’s difficult to see how Marathon can avoid getting caught in the same bind as Tesoro and Valero.

Western Refining owns two refineries with a total throughput of 151,000 barrels/day. The company’s operating margin through the first three quarters of 2011 is around $20/barrel. All of Western’s crude is domestically sourced and priced as WTI. This is a nice advantage when Brent pricing is more than $25/barrel higher, but as the differential narrows, Western has to come up with some other way to make profits. This company could get stung badly on WTI pricing.

CVR Energy owns two refineries with a combined throughput of 185,000 barrels/day. Both are located in the Midwest and about 75% of the feedstock is domestically sourced WTI. CVR gets some portion of its feedstock from the Bakken area, which gives the company an additional break on crude pricing because Bakken crude trades at a small discount to WTI. Rising WTI prices will certainly hurt margins for CVR, but probably not as badly as the narrower differential will hurt other refiners.

One last word about Conoco, which is planning to spin-off its refining operations into a separate company. The spin-off was set to happen by mid-2012, but unless refining margins return to what they were last summer, Conoco might have a hard time convincing investors that they’re getting a good deal from the split.

Paul Ausick