With warnings having started from key leaders in the realm of chip stocks, the question is whether or not you can trust the analysts and the consensus upside.  24/7 Wall St. has gone in and evaluated the leaders in each aspect of the semiconductor sector to see where there is value and where the risks currently lie.  We evaluated the following chip companies: Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC); QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM); Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN); Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM); NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA); Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD); Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM); Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT); Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX); and Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR).

In a further effort to show just how much these have sold off, we have shown the moves in the following key semiconductor ETFs: Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH); SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD); and the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD).  We have also run the same screens in retail, gold and silver miners, conglomerates, industrial giants, and major oil companies with links to those at the end of this article. Here is the screening of value and upside in the chip giants:

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) traded at $26.60 with a market value of $129 billion.  The consensus target price for the king of PC processors from Thomson Reuters is $29.75 and the 52-week trading range is $19.16 to $29.27.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. Intel’s implied upside to the consensus target is 16% and it is worth noting that the consensus target is just above the 52-week high.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) traded at $57.78 with a market value of $99 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $71.92 and the 52-week trading range is $45.98 to $68.87.  The CDMA giant yields about 1.7% after dividend hikes. The implied upside to the consensus target is just under 25% but we would note that the consensus target is still over $3.00 above the 52-week high.

Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) traded at $29.15 with a market value of $33.4 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $35.80 and the 52-week trading range is $24.34 to $35.30.  The yield here is about 2.3%. TI’s implied upside to the consensus target is just under 23% and that target is still just above its 52-week high.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) traded at $31.85 with a market value of $17.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $43.21 and the 52-week trading range is $27.59 to $39.66.  Broadcom has a paltry yield of only about 1.2%, but its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35%.  Be advised that this consensus target is almost $4.00 above the 52-week high.

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades at $12.25 and its market cap is just over $7.5 billion. This graphics processor leader has a consensus target price of $16.64 and the 52-week trading range is $11.47 to $20.05.  NVIDIA pays no dividend and that is something which it should consider changing since it has about $3 billion in cash and liquidity. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 35% and that consensus target price is well under its 52-week high.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE: AMD) trades at $6.06 and its market cap is only $4.25 billion despite it being so actively traded. The consensus target price for this distant number-2 in PC processors is $8.55 and the 52-week trading range is $4.31 to $8.71.  AMD has no dividend due to very spotty earnings. Its implied upside to the consensus target is more than 41% if you trust the analysts here and its target price is just under its 52-week high.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) currently trades at $14.15 for its ADR and Yahoo! Finance shows its market value being about $73 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $16.70 and the 52-week trading range is $10.75 to $16.15.  The yield is listed as roughly 2.9%. TSM’s implied upside to the consensus target is 18% and the consensus target is about 4% above the 52-week high.

Freescale Semiconductor Holdings (NYSE: FSL) has been battered since its IPO and shares now trade at $9.75 with an implied market value of $2.4 billion.  This private equity backed chip outfit’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is all the way up at $17.92 and the 52-week (less than one-year actually) trading range is $9.43 to $20.97.  Freescale has NO DIVIDEND, which makes it stand out against the peer group now.  Still, if you trust the analysts here the implied upside to the consensus target is a whopping 83%!  Trust is hard to come by here, particularly for a company where backers will sell shares along the way into strength.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) trades around $32.50 and its market value is about $7.9 billion.  The king of flash memory’s consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $44.46 and the 52-week trading range is $31.34 to $53.46.  SanDisk has no current dividend, something which may need to change down the road considering that this is not anywhere close to a new company.  Its implied upside to the consensus target is 37% but the company has had two warnings.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) currently trades at $10.55 and its market value is $13.6 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $13.65 and the 52-week trading range is $9.70 to $13.94.  Applied now yields about 3.4% and its implied upside to the consensus target is about 29%.

Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) is worth more than $4.5 billion today but it is acquiring Novellus Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS) for about $3 billion in stock, so it will soon be larger.  Its shares trade at $38.00, its consensus target price is $48.53 and the 52-week trading range is $34.81 to $48.88.  Lam Research pays NO DIVIDEND now and its implied upside is almost 28%.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) currently trades at $33.90 and its market value is $10.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $41.00 and the 52-week trading range is $30.39 to $48.91.  Altera has a dink yield of only about 1% and we expect a dividend hike in the coming weeks or months. Its implied upside to the consensus target is about 21% and this one is well off highs and the target is almost $8.00 under its 52-week high.

Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: SMH) has undergone a total transformation since it is no longer the Semiconductor HOLDRs.  At $31.25 its range since the change is listed as $28.86 to $36.17.  This ETF is said to have assets of almost $400 million, but that changes based upon inflows and outflows on top of the change in the price.

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (AMEX: XSD) ETS is now one of the longest ETF in chips since the HOLDRS changed.  At $43.50 now, its 52-week range is $40.09 to $59.85 and it still has only about $44 million in assets.  This one peaked in January and the mix of components has made it more volatile than many leaders.  This ETF would now have to rally by more than 37% to hit its 52-week high again.

ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) uses leverage of 2-times for its semiconductor trading, so this is one where it will feel just like getting your fingernails ripped out when your timing is wrong. At $33.50, this leveraged ETF has a 52-week range of $26.18 to $46.46. It would have to rally about 39% to hit its 52-week high again.

As you can see, the semiconductor and chip leaders have now pulled back substantially from their highs seen throughout 2012.  The issue to consider is that Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) have confirmed that PC sales are slowing.  Some of this is due to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some of it is due to weakness in Europe, weak PC spending in the Americas, and a slowing of growth in the BRIC nations.  How the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) launch of Windows 8 will impact the PC refresh cycle ahead is now another wild card since PC sales guidance is looking softer than anticipated from just a couple of weeks ago.

We also want to warn investors to not just blindly trust the analysts in semiconductor price targets here.  Summer can be a brutal time for chip stocks.  The drop in the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (AMEX: USD) during the summer of 2011 was about 40% and the drop from the 52-week high in 2011 to that end of summer trough was almost 50%.

The drop in the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (AMEX: XSD) during the summer of 2011 was about 25%, but the drop from the peak in early 2011 here to the trough of late-summer was about 31%.

Summer is a very tough time to invest in chip stocks, and the question now is just how much the slowdown is going to continue taking out of chip stocks.  We would certainly avoid trying to play the game of trying to catch falling knives here, but these are all worth keeping an eye on for those inflection points where the valuations start to adequately discount the warning signs.

Gold & Silver Miners with the Most Upside Value  

Major Oil Companies with the Most Upside Value

Industrials with the Most Upside Value  

Conglomerates with the Most Upside Value

Retail Stocks with Upside 

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 15 points to 13,213.63 (-0.11%), the NASDAQ fell nearly 23 points (-0.74%) to 3,046.36, and the S&P 500 fell -0.39% or more than 5 points to 1,397.91.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) cut to ‘equal weight’ at Evercore; TransCanada Corp. (NYSE: TRP) cut to ‘hold’ at Desjardins; American Railcar Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ARII) raised to ‘neutral’ at UBS; Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) raised to ‘outperform’ at BMO Capital; Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) raised to ‘strong buy’ at Raymond James; and Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU) raised to ‘buy’ at Dahlman Rose.

Earnings reports since markets closed last Friday have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) is up 10.8% at $3.28 (our coverage here); Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is down -8.4% at $80.49; Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH) is up 0.32% at $22.09; and Sohu.com Inc. (NASDAQ: SOHU) is down -7.4% at $51.62.

Tomorrow we get earnings from Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), Bankrate Inc. (NASDAQ: RATE), Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM), Chesapeake Energy Corp., Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ); Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP); Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE); Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI); and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) is up about 54% at $21.07 after posting a new 52-week high of $26.00 earlier today. The company has created a joint venture with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT). More coverage here.

Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN) is up 19.5% at $48.89 after posting a new 52-week high of $49.50 earlier today. The company is merging with Energy Transfer Partners L.P. in a deal worth about $5.3 billion. More coverage here.

VeriFone Systems Inc. (NYSE: PAY) is down -12.7% at $47.52. The company’s stock was downgraded at Deutsche Bank, along with comments that the company was inflating its organic growth estimates.

Stay tuned for Tuesday. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser are all giving speeches. Motor vehicle sales are expected to be reported throughout the day. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 10:00 a.m. – Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index
• 10:00 a.m. – Construction spending
• 11:30 a.m. – 4- and 52-week bill auctions

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Paul Ausick

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) is on Monday and the following earnings reports are due on Tuesday: Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI); Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM); Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM); Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK); Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI); Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO).

Wednesday’s top earnings reports on deck are as follows:  American Water Works Co. (NYSE: AWK); Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY); Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA); First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR); Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN); Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC); Visa Inc. (NYSE: V); and Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM).

We will provide previews for the larger report due on Thursday as the reports get closer.  As a reminder, some of the dates and estimates may change and some of them may have already changed.  Consensus estimates are from Thomson Reuters and we have provided color on each if applicable.

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) reports on Monday.  The consensus estimates are $0.48 EPS and $611.1 million in revenues.  Shares are around $27.00, and the consensus analyst price target is $32.30.  Now that the German merger (the German takeover of America’s top exchange) is off the table, investors are focusing on the values here.

TUESDAY, May 1

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is due Tuesday morning and its shares have been battered along with the entire coal sector.  Estimates are $0.16 EPS and $1.12 billion in revenues.  Shares are around $9.50, and the consensus analyst price target is $32.30.

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) is due Tuesday morning and estimates are $0.59 EPS and $21.4 billion in revenues.  Shares are around $31.00, and the consensus analyst price target is almost $34.00.

Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) reports after the close on Tuesday and it has been riding the Apple wave.  The consensus estimates are $0.55 EPS and $1.8 billion in revenues.  Shares are around $36.30 and the consensus analyst price target is $42.40.

Apple shares are up over $56.00 at $616.74 on last look and we have already seen more  than 1 million shares trade in the pre-market with well over an hour until the open.  Here are some of the moves in the Apple component players:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is up over 1% at $7.40 on thin volume.   Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is up 4.6% at $34.42.

LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) is indicated up around $8.10 to $8.20 (+1% to +2%) after an $8.03 close.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is down 2.2% at $15.31.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is up 1.5% at $6.61.

NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ: NXPI) is indicated up about 1% after getting a CNBC tout as a growing Apple supplier for the next generation chips.

Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.5% at $63.41.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has warned twice in recent weeks but it is getting some love as well with a gain of 1.7% at $37.10.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) is up 7% at $25.60.

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc. (NASDAQ: TQNT) is up 10% at $5.67.

When one stock goes up, everyone looks at the other plays out there that benefit too.  When Apple is so big, it leaves a lot of room for growth.

JON C. OGG

Micron’s shares are down about -4.2% at $6.71 in a 52-week range of $3.97-$11.83. Micron’s NAND Flash memory business was expected to get a boost from the release of Ultrabook laptop computers from a number of makers later this year. Sandisk, too, was expecting some help from the Ultrabook releases, but the company’s guidance put a halt to that.

Broadcom and Nvidia are also feeling the effects of Sandisk’s earnings report, but not to the same degree as Micron. Broadcom’s shares are down 1.4% at $35.23 in a 52-week range of $27.59-$41.00, and Nvidia’s shares are off -0.4% at $13.60 in a 52-week range of $11.47-$20.52.

Only Qualcomm is dodging Sandisk’s bullet, up nearly 1% at $63.16 in a 52-week range of $45.98-$68.87. The company is simply better positioned in the mobile device market than any of the others, primarily because of its role as a supplier to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Paul Ausick

Maybe you can blame the less robust economic data or maybe you can still try to claim that no more QE from Ben Bernanke and friends is the reason.  SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) is down 8.7% at $45.68 against a 52-week range of $32.24 to $53.46.  With a close of $50.05 yesterday, the fears were not very evident in the share price that weak pricing and demand were both there in flash memory.  The price action in the Apple component supplier list below is uniform:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is down 3% at $7.74.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is down 1.8% at $38.39.

Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) is down 2.5% at $37.21.

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: CY) is down 2.2% at $14.70.

Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. (NYSE: FCS) is down 3.2% at $14.10.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is down 2.2% at $15.31.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is down 5.7% at $7.54.

LSI Corporation (NYSE: LSI) is down 3.4% at $8.48.

ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: ONNN) is down 2.8% at $8.47.

Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is down 1.4% at $67.20.

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: SWKS) is down 4.5% at $26.29.

TriQuint Semiconductor Inc. (NASDAQ: TQNT) is down 3.5% at $6.32.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is down only 1.2% at $721.75 but investors have been used to it rising just about every day as analysts take their consensus price targets higher and higher.  The news from SanDisk was bad, but at least the spillover and run-off is not bleeding some of the larger players in the Apple and technology ecosphere too bad.

JON C. OGG

BroadLight, which is incorporated in the US and operates in Israel, makes “highly integrated networking and fiber access PON (Passive Optical Network) processors.” Broadcom believes the acquisition puts the company in a better position to take advantage of the forecast for explosive growth in demand for high-bandwidth communications.

Broadcom expects the acquisition to be revenue-neutral in the 2012 fiscal year. Broadcom’s shares closed at $38.39 yesterday in a 52-week range of $27.59-$41.44.

The motive of immediate profits is probably at the core of the relationship, or lack of one between Apple and Samsung. Apple is well known for driving supplier bargains with two goals. One is component costs that help keep its precious gross margins, so well admired on Wall St., high. The other is to work with vendors that can manufacture extremely high-quality components very quickly. Apple often underestimates demand for its products on the low side and must rush to keep supply in balance with surges in demand. Apple reaches its goals. Samsung gets a prized position as an Apple supplier and large sales because of the success of Apple products.

Samsung’s smartphone and tablet divisions have goals in conflict with its electronics manufacturing operations. The South Korean company is the only maker of smartphones and tablet PCs in the world that has been able to challenge the primacy of Apple’s products. Part of the reason is Samsung’s adroitness as a clever designer of products. Another is its massive balance sheet, which allows it tremendous manufacturing capacity, the ability to take risks, a large marketing budget and strong relationships with carriers. Samsung’s prowess have even allowed it to take a smartphone market share lead in China, the world’s largest wireless market. It is one of the few places Apple has to play catch-up to gain market share.

Samsung has taken a simple set of gambles. The first is that a relationship with Apple is probably substantially profitable. The other is that it can at least match Apple at Apple’s own game, which is to convince consumers that it has the superior products in the smartphone and tablet PC markets.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Bank earnings may have reached a low last year as proprietary trading and investment bank activity slows. JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the problem was temporary and soon would right itself. Short sellers must believe that early signs of a recovery of bank and financial firm earnings will appear soon. They pulled out of these stocks late last month.

The short interest in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), one of the most widely shorted stocks, dropped 2% to 152 million shares. Short interest in Citigroup (NYSE: C) fell 25% to 37.5 million. Shares short in Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) dropped 15% to 29.2 million. The short interest in Morgan Stanley, its stock badly battered over the past month, fell by 15% to 15.1 million.

The short action in tech shares was more mixed. The news was good for Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), which showed a drop in short interest of 9% to 63.2 million. Shares short in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) declined 4% to 99.5 million. Shares short in Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) fell 10% to 15.7, despite the fact that it revised its sales forecasts lower. Shares sold short in Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) dropped 15% to 7.9 million.

Short sellers increased their positions in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) by 10% to 61.5 million. The world’s largest software company has had mixed reactions to the release of its mobile OS on Nokia (NYSE: NOK) smartphones. Shares short in beleaguered Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) rose 6% to 59.2 million. The short interest in Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) was up 27% to 10.9 million.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. (NYSE: ASX) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Reiterated Outperform but raised target to $600 at Credit Suisse.
The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ: BRCM) Reiterated Buy with $46 target at Argus.
Ciena Inc. (NASDAQ: CIEN) Maintained Buy with $21 target at Argus.
Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA) Cut to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup; Cut to Hold at Needham.
Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) Started as Neutral at Citigroup.
E-commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein.
Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE: MDT) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) Raised to Buy at Canaccord Genuity.
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE: EDU) Started as Buy at Jefferies.
Siliconware Precision Industries Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: SPIL) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.

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