With about an hour to go in today’s trading session, the good news from Lennar is lifting other homebuilders including PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM), Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH), and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI). Lennar noted that it had been able to increase its sales prices in the quarter ended in February, in almost complete opposition to the Case-Shiller index.

What could be happening is that we’re seeing a mismatch based on reported data. The Case-Shiller index includes data only through January, while Lennar’s quarterly results go through February. Most of the data on housing starts points to better news in the second half of the year, so what we might have here is a homebuilder front-running the price index.

Whatever’s happening, homebuilders look good today. Lennar is up nearly 5% at $27.66 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today of $28.28. PulteGroup is up about 4.7% at $9.20 in a 52-week range of $3.29-$9.69. Beazer is up about 4.4% at $3.45 in a 52-week range of $1.35-$4.79, and D.R. Horton is up 3.7% at $16.00 in a 52-week range of $8.03-$16.45.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down about 11 points to 12,705.41 (-0.09%), the NASDAQ rose more than 11 points (0.4%) to 2,859.68, and the S&P 500 rose 0.11% or nearly 1.5 points to 1,325.54.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) raised to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (NYSE: EW) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE: AKS) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch; and Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) started as ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) is up nearly 24% at $66.30; Education Management Corp. (NASDAQ: EDMC) is down -17% at $21.19; Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is down -0.6% at $24.62; Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is up 2.2% at $60.88 after posting a new 52-week high of $61.93 earlier today; Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is up 3.2% at $3.27; Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is down -3.9% at $5.85; Brinks Co. (NYSE: BCO) is down -17.5% at $24.43; Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) is up 0.35% at $63.29; Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is down -1.2% at $42.48; Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is down -0.3% at $38.51; Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) is down -0.3% at $15.71; and Viacom Inc. (NASDAQ: VIAB) is down -0.9% at $46.53.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is up nearly 18% at $12.49 after posting a new post-IPO high of $12.91 earlier today. The social games company got a big boost from Facebook’s IPO filing. Our coverage is here.

MediciNova Inc. (NASDAQ: MNOV) is up nearly 31% at $2.47. The company received a favorable patent notice for a multiple sclerosis treatment device.

Response Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: RGDX) is up more than 27% at $1.50. The drug maker announced the private placement of about 5.3 million shares at $1.50/share, about 28% higher than last night’s closing price.

BioScrip Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOS) is up more than 15% at $6.73. The pharmacy services provider has sold a portion of its assets to Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) for $225 million.

Ur-Energy Inc. (AMEX: URG) is down more than -13% at $1.22. The uranium miner has issued 1.5 million shares of new stock to agents who will attempt to sell at CDN$1.00.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Non-farm payroll report
• 10:00 a.m. – Factory orders
• 10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing (services) index

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Paul Ausick

We have two homebuilder earnings due from Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM).  Other key earnings to watch will be from the following: Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX); Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX); CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME); Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW); Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD); International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP); Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K); MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA); Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK); Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL); Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT); Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB); Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX); YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

We have included Thomson Reuters consensus estimates on each company.  On most we have included pricing data and/or other bits of color for traders to consider.

We have two different homebuilders on deck to report.  Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is expected to post -$0.36 EPS on $211.4 million in sales and we would watch cancellation rates on contracts as well as the quality of the earnings.  Second is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) with an expected positive earnings of $0.07 EPS on $1.14 billion in sales.  Pulte’s cancellation rates and quality of earnings will also have to be monitored.

Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) will show private equity wealth and earnings in the morning.  The firm is expected to report earnings of $0.38 EPS on revenues of $986.75 million.

Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) has been down and out for longer than any current and past holder would like to consider.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.08 EPS on $1.91 billion in sales.

CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) is expected to report earnings of $3.71 EPS and $754 million in sales before the market opens.  With a possibility of a state-relocation and the ongoing pressure of exchange mergers we would be watching this one.  At roughly $244.50, the 52-week trading range is $224.69 to $317.27.

Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) is expected to turn in earnings of $0.30 EPS on $14.19 billion in sales.  The report is due in the morning.

Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW) is expected to report earnings of $0.19 EPS on $2.58 billion in sales.  The shares are now up over 60% from the lows of the last year and the stock still remains pressured due to the mortgage insurance overhang that has been in place for quite some time.

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has shocked the market by outperforming despite what appears to be a bad use of effort and capital in the large acquisition.  Still, shares hit a new 52-week high on Wednesday.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.05 EPS and $2.18 billion in sales. 

International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) is close to being within striking range of a 52-week high and it pays well above a 3% yield today.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.61 EPS and $6.5 billion in sales.

Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) is lagging and actually close to a 52-week low with shares around the $49.50 mark. The estimates are $0.63 on $2.99 billion in sales.  The bar is set very low here.

MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) will show just what the interchange fee problems look like, but that is not fully reflected at all in current numbers.  The consensus estimates are $3.92 EPS and $1.73 billion in sales. With shares around $357 some are concerned over valuations here.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is reporting early Thursday morning and the company’s higher dividend hike has shares trading very close to 52-week highs with a price of close to $38.70 andf a 52-week range of $29.47 to $39.43.  Estimates are $0.95 EPS and $12.53 billion in sales. To show just how low growth is the estimates of $3.76 EPS and $48.23 billion in sales for all of 2011 are only expected to be $3.83 EPS on $47.62 billion in sales for all of 2012.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) may or may not release.  With its rival’s disaster, we are not doing much legwork here.  Thomson Reuters has a projection of $0.15 EPS and $1.78 billion in sales.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT) is key for hotel investors and this one is expected to post $0.57 EPS on $1.42 billion in sales. Starwood has over $1 billion in cash but is still trading at a high 3.7-times book value.

Trimble Navigation Ltd. (NASDAQ: TRMB) is not so widely watched on its own, but it is used as a barometer reading for Garmin.  Trimble estimates are $0.48 EPS and $419.10.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) has been in the news with new FDA approvals.  We have Thursday as the tentative date and estimates are $0.73 EPS and $523.66 million in sales.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) is set to report and it is a puzzlement as to how this stock is still alive.  On a reverse split basis the $12.83 price compares to a 52-week range of $7.94 to somewhere over $1,000.  The consensus is listed as -$6.97 EPS but we have no idea how these targets are composed on this company.

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JON C. OGG

Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: BHP) Started as Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Linear Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: LLTC) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ: STLD) Started as Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Stifel Financial Corporation (NYSE: SF) Raised to Buy with $37 target at Goldman Sachs.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Raised to Buy at Wunderlich.
U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) Cut to Neutral at Citigroup.
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.

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JON C. OGG

Among the six homebuilders, only NVR had a significant jump in its target price since mid-October. The median target price for NVR is now $765, up from $728, and the stock price as of about noon today is $682.57, for an upside potential of 12.1%. That’s not a grand number, but it’s the best in the sector. Target prices for PulteGroup, D.R. Horton, Hovnanian, and Beazer did not change and the target price for Toll Brothers rose just $0.15, from $21.50 to $21.65. Not a big display of confidence in the sector.

Home Depot’s median target price rose from $40.00 to $42.00, and the stock’s current price of $40.51 implies a potential gain of 3.7%. Lowe’s median target price rose from $23.00 to $26.00, and at the current price of $25.13 the implied gain is 3.5%. Even though now is not a particularly good season for home improvement projects, either one or both of these stores could easily push through the new targets.

While the target prices did not change for five of the homebuilders, all but NVR saw share price gains of more than 30% in the last six weeks, with PulteGroup shares gaining 51%. Home Depot and Lowe’s shares are up 16% and 19%, respectively, in the same period. These share price rises for homebuilders indicate more investor interest in these stocks, analysts’ lack of enthusiasm indicates that caution remains the best policy.

None of these builders pays a dividend, with the exception of Beazer which offers investors a dividend yield of 1.2%. Home Depot’s dividend yield is 2.9%, and Lowe’s offers a dividend yield of 2.3%.

For investors who believe they have to participate in this sector, Home Depot remains the best choice, with Lowe’s the best alternative. Building — and selling — new houses is still a risky business.

Paul Ausick

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the number of mortgage applications fell by -10% last week. Of that total, there were -2.3% fewer applications for new purchases and -12% fewer applications for refinancing. Refinancing accounted for 77.3% of all mortgage applications last week, down from 78.6% in the previous week, which might be slightly better news for new home builders if the total number of applications for new homes had increased.

As it is, builders like KB Home (NYSE: KBH), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI), and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) will continue to face the dual headwinds of higher inventory at lower prices and hard-to-get credit for new home buyers. The expected spate of foreclosed properties soon to hit the market is also expected to make matters even worse for the builders.

Home sales are reviving a bit in some markets, as we noted our story on the cities where people want to buy homes. All are in sunbelt cities where underwater mortgages and foreclosures have kept prices low, and where many Americans may be looking for a place to retire. One interesting side note to the uptick in home sales in these cities is that buyers may be making all-cash purchases, and foregoing the whole mortgage application process.

About 30% of US homes sold every month are purchased by all-cash buyers. Nearly 20% of buyers are investors who plan either to rent the property or to flip it as soon as possible. It’s probably no surprise that nearly all these all-cash deals are made on foreclosed or distressed properties. According to the National Association of Realtors, about 30% of all sales in September involved foreclosed or distressed properties.

Another interesting note on mortgages is the rise in 15-year refinancing loans. Last month, 28.8% of all mortgages were of that type. At existing low interest rates, homeowners wanting to stay where they are may be able to refinance and end up paying less per month on a 15-year loan than they are currently paying on a 30-year loan. That assumes, of course, that the homeowner can get approved for the loan.

In September, about 18% of all mortgage applications failed to get approval. Part of the problem has been a lowering of loan limits by lenders, which raises the cost to buyers in areas of  expensive homes where buyers need to get a more expensive jumbo mortgage that exceeds $417,000.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB) is up nearly 2% over the past 12 months, although it has dropped about -1.5% in the first few minutes of trading this morning. The individual homebuilders shares are down anywhere from -1% to -2.25% in early trading as well.

Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 17 points to 12,096.39 (0.14%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 29 points (1.09%) to 2,686.20, and the S&P 500 rose 0.48% or more than 6 points to 1,257.80.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: A) raised to ‘buy’ at BofA/ML. Other action included Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) reiterated at ‘neutral’ by Argus; Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP) cut to ‘hold’ at Argus; Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) target raised from $25 to $28 at Argus; Alimera Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: ALIM) cut to ‘neutral’ with a $2 target at Credit Suisse.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is down about -2.25%, at $57.57; Beazer USA Homes Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is down about -0.5%, at $2.21; Covidien plc (NYSE: COV) is up nearly 2.5%, at $48.44; Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE: DKS) is up nearly 5.5%, at $41.73; TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) is up about 1% at $61.16; and Saks, Inc. (NYSE: SKS) is up 2.5%, at $10.46. For a more detailed look at today’s retail earnings, see our earlier story.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Moneygram International, Inc. (NYSE: MGI) is up about 616%, at $18.68. The company announced a 1-for-8 reverse stock split this morning, shrinking the number of outstanding shares from 1.3 billion to 162.5 million. The stock closed yesterday at $2.61, and posted a new 52-week high this morning of $19.61.

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX) is up nearly 30%, at $1.31. There is no direct news from the company, but the price jump is very likely related to an announcement yesterday from Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) that it was building a new plant in Canada that would double its annual production of ethanol.

Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ: NLST) is up more than 24%, at $2.92. The company has signed deals with both IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) under which Netlist’s cloud memory product undergo qualification testing for use with the two companies’ servers.

FriendFinder Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) is down more than -20%, at $1.50, after posting a new 52-week low of $1.42. The company has been notified of a class-action lawsuit charging that it made false statements related the number of shares of stock subject to the 180-day lock-up period following the company’s IPO last May.

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE: MTOR) is down more than -17%, at $6.58. The company reported solid earnings today, but cut next year’s revenue guidance by about 10%.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren are giving speeches tomorrow. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 7:00 a.m. – Mortgage purchase applications
• 8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
• 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve industrial production index
• 10:00 a.m. – Housing market index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report

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Paul Ausick

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than -389 points to 11,780.94 (-3.2%), the NASDAQ fell nearly -106 points (-3.88%) to 2,621.65, and the S&P 500 fell -3.67% or nearly -47 points to 1,229.10.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA) cut to ‘sell’ at Janney; H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB) raised to ‘outperform’ at Oppenheimer; Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) cut to ‘hold’ at S&P Capital IQ; Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) raised to ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) cut to ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; and Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) cut to ‘neutral’ at BofA/ML.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is up down about -10%, at $22.48; A123 Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: AONE) is down less than -1%, at $3.09; IntraLinks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: IL) is down more than -37%, at $5.50, after posting a new 52-week low of $5.44 earlier today; Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ: NILE) is down nearly -16%, at $33.24; Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR) is down more than -19%, at $8.80; and Neenah Paper, Inc. (NYSE: NP) is up more than 12%, at $18.84.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER) is down more than -32%, to $0.41. The company has said that it will suspend manufacturing and cut 500 jobs. Excess inventory of solar panels gets the blame.

U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRTS)  is down  more than -22%, at $3.94, after posting a new 52-week low of $3.66 earlier in the day. The company received a waiver from one of its lenders for failing to meet coverage ratio requirements.

O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is down about -1.1%, at $76.44, after posting a new 52-week high of $77.95 earlier today. We noted the company’s performance earlier today in an article on auto sector implied gains.

American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC)) is up nearly 10%, to $4.49. The company reported earnings today, and its growing order backlog indicates a possible turnaround following the loss of its biggest customer earlier this year.

Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NYSE: NOR) is down more than -16%, at $8.51. The company will pay a special dividend of $1/share to shareholders of record as of yesterday’s close. That pushed the shares down a buck this morning, and the rest is due to the overall market decline today.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) is down more than -8%, at $28.78. The bank claimed the largest decline among the big US banks today.

Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) is down nearly -8%, at $2.17. There was no special news from Beazer today, but the threatened burst of new foreclosures soon to hit the housing market have had a nasty effect on this lower-priced builder.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart is giving a speech in the morning and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a town hall meeting with soldiers and their families at Fort Bliss, Texas, at 11:45 a.m. We have noted the following events (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – International trade balance report
• 8:30 a.m. – Initial unemployment benefits claims
• 8:30 a.m. – Monthly import/export price report
• 9:45 a.m. – Bloomberg consumer comfort index
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA natural gas inventory report
• 2:00 p.m. – Monthly US Treasury budget report
• 4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply report

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Paul Ausick

Worse, there is not much expectation that the market will turn around, at least until 2013. More foreclosed homes coming on the market will continue to depress prices, and until inventories of unsold homes are cleared, there simply cannot be a significant recovery. The homebuilders we are looking at include NVR (NYSE: NVR), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) and Beazer Homes USA (NYSE: BZH).

Home improvement stores have also had to struggle over the past several years. Shares of Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) are both lower today than they were five years ago.

Share prices were pegged at about noon today, and all data comes from Yahoo! Finance.

NVR has a median target price of $728.00 from four brokers. Shares are trading today at $620.99, for an implied gain of $107.01, or 14.7%. NVR’s forward P/E is 17.6 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $554.71 to $804.31, and at today’s price that is about 12% above its 52-week low and 23% below the 52-week high. NVR’s share price has risen about 12% since October 2006, and of all the homebuilders, it is the only one that can point to a gain over that period. The company’s consensus EPS estimate for 2011 has dropped from $28.02 to $26.45. There might be an opportunity here, but it is a pretty slim one.

Toll Brothers has a median target price of $21.50 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $15.29, for an implied gain of $6.21, or 28.9%. Its forward P/E is 49.35 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $13.16 to $22.42, and at today’s price that is about 16% above its 52-week low and 32% below the 52-week high. Toll Brothers is expected to post EPS of $0.20 for its 2011 fiscal year ending this month — and that is up from an earlier EPS estimate of just $0.02. The company’s position at the luxury end of the market has been something of a prop to the share price, but the U.S. economy is not minting many new millionaires right now.

PulteGroup has a median target price of $6.50 from 15 brokers. Shares are trading today at $4.14, for an implied gain of $2.36, or 36.3%. PulteGroup’s forward P/E is 32 and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $3.29 to $8.69, and at today’s price that is about 26% above its 52-week low and 52% below the 52-week high. PulteGroup was one of the 10 worst performing stocks in the recently completed quarter, losing 45% of its value. There is nothing about the homebuilding industry or PulteGroup’s recent performance that justifies the forward P/E ratio of 32. Hope is not a strategy.

Hovnanian Enterprises has a median target price of $1.38 from eight brokers. Shares are trading today at $1.20, for an implied gain of $0.18, or 13%. Hovnanian’s forward P/E is negative and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $0.89 to $5.00, and at today’s price that is about 35% above its 52-week low and 76% below the 52-week high. Hovnanian is asking debt holders to exchange old notes for new ones carrying a lower interest rate and a longer term. The offer is scheduled to end next week. The company’s corporate debt rating is CC, just two notches above default. Debt holders are unlikely to ride to the company’s rescue.

D.R. Horton has a median target price of $13.00 from 14 brokers. Shares are trading today at $9.62, for an implied gain of $3.38, or 26%. Horton’s forward P/E is 19.3 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.5%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $8.03 to $13.50, and at today’s price that is about 59% above its 52-week low and 29% below the 52-week high. Horton is expected to post EPS for the quarter just ended of $0.14, and full-year EPS of $0.20 for the year ended in September. The consensus estimate for 2012 full-year EPS is $0.50. If the market is getting weaker, as many believe, the company has exactly no chance of meeting that 2012 number.

Beazer Homes USA has a median target price of $3.00 from seven brokers. Shares are trading today at $1.81, for an implied gain of $1.19, or 39.7%. Its forward P/E is negative and the company does not pay a dividend. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $1.35 to $6.23, and at today’s price that is about 12% above its 52-week low and 81% below the 52-week high. Beazer’s biggest trouble is that it is a builder of entry-level homes, the sector that is hardest hit by the number of foreclosed properties coming on the market. One thing that could help Beazer a little is that home owners have begun taking their houses off the market because they are unwilling to sell for the current low prices. Inventory is still high, but it was lower in September than in August.

Home Depot has a median target price of $40.00 from 22 brokers. Shares are trading today at $34.97, for an implied gain of $5.03, or 12.6%. Home Depot’s forward P/E is 13.14 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.9%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $28.13 to $39.38, and at today’s price that is about 24% above its 52-week low and 11% below the 52-week high. Research firm BuildFax reports thats home remodeling projects increased by 29% in August compared with August 2010. The firm attributes the increase to refinancing of existing homes at current low interest rates. With the peak remodeling season behind us for another year, this growth could begin to slow down.

Lowe’s Companies has a median target price of $23.00 from 20 brokers. Shares are trading today at $21.09, for an implied gain of $1.91, or 8.3%. Its forward P/E is 11.93 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.7%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $18.07 to $27.45, and at today’s price that is about 17% above its 52-week low and 23% below the 52-week high. Lowe’s announced this morning that it was closing another 20 stores across the U.S. and expects to take a charge of $0.17 to $0.20 against second-quarter EPS. About 1,950 employees will lose their jobs. Lowe’s performance has been weaker than Home Depot’s for a couple of years now, and this year the share price is about flat, compared with Home Depot’s share price gain of 15%.

Paul Ausick

According to today’s report, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of new single-family homes in August is -2.3% lower than in July, but 6.1% higher than August 2010.  The number of new homes sold in August 2011 was 295,000 new homes, compared with 278,000 in August 2010. That’s okay, except August 2010 monthly sales were the lowest on record. Pretty weak.

Last week both KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) reported weak earnings. KB did note a jump of 40% in new orders, once again a hopeful sign until compared with the same period last year which couldn’t have been much worse. Other homebuilders PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), NVR Corp. (NYSE: NVR), and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) have all struggled during the past twelve months, with only NVR showing a share price drop of less than -10%. This is not an industry on the mend.

The Commerce Department also estimates that the US housing inventory increased slightly in August to a 6.6 month supply at the current sales rate. Of that, the Department estimates that 60,000 new homes are completed and ready for sale and another 77,000 are under construction. Another 27,000 are permitted but construction has not yet begun. The total inventory at the end of July was 163,000 houses with 26,000 sold in August. At the end of August, 164,000 new houses were for sale. That’s not an improvement.

The best thing to be said for new home sales is that they are not getting worse even though the absolute numbers are very low. If this data indicates a recovery or any sign of better days ahead for homebuilders, then one is looking at the numbers through rose-colored lenses.

Shares of KB Hoe are down more than -6% in the early afternoon, at $5.55, in a 52-week range of $5.09-$16.11.  Lennar shares are down about -1.5%, at $13.20, in a 52-week range of $12.39-$21.54. Pulte shares are down nearly -2%, at $3.97 in a 52-week range of $3.40-$8.99. The other builders are also trading lower, and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB) is up a fraction at $13.45, in a 52-week range of $13.02-$19.21.

Paul Ausick