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Investors Seeking Defensive Stocks Where 3% to Over 5% Dividends Rule!

Administrator — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:14:54 +0000

A stock market that sells off eight of nine days is not a good market. Even the Facebook IPO is being viewed as a one-off item rather than a systemic item which will make the market stronger. With “Sell in May and go away!” remaining prevalent and with Europe in meltdown as Asia slows, the big question is where to hide. Some investors just refuse to accept the floor-level rates of CDs and Treasury bills and Treasury notes, so they go hide out in the defensive stocks like tobacco, consumer staples, basic level food, utilities, big-pharma, and maybe even those high-yields in telecom. This is a market where defensive stocks should rule the roost.

People are going to buy Coke and Pepsi, most likely, in almost any economy. Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is actually up 0.6% at $67.23 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.6% at $76.95 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these pay about the same as the 30-Year Treasury’s long-bond. The beer segment remains uncorrelated to defensive stocks as it did last week (in part due to currencies): Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) is down by 0.7% at $71.43 and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) is down 1.2% at $40.81. Even the best water utility in America via American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) is down another 1% $33.99 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive. You gotta eat, right? McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is down almost 0.4% at $91.55 and getting further and further away from that $102.22 all-time high recently seen. The rest of the defensive food segment is up to mixed as food is defensive and with dividends:

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is up 0.4% at $39.20 with a 3% yield that challenges the long-bond;
ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.2% at $25.67 with a 3.7% yield that beats the long-bond;
Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is up 0.25% at $34.49 with a 3.4% yield that beats the long-bond;
Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 0.1% at $29.08 but its 2.1% yield is ‘only’ paying what the 10-year has been paying recently.

Smoking has those nice 5%-plus yields for the defensive tobacco sector: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only 0.1% at $31.75 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down 0.5% at $16.73; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.41 against a high of $42.81.

Diapers, toothpaste, deodorant, and shaving… consumer products are acting defensive: Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is down only 0.3% at $63.50 with a 3.5% yield; Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up by 0.3% at $79.62 with a 3.7% yield; Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down 0.1% at $99.20 but it only pays about 2.5% for a dividend yield.

Drug and medical is mixed to positive: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is up by over 0.8% at $38.35 with its 4.4% yield; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down only $0.01 at $22.64 with its 3.9% yield; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down 0.5% at $64.00 with its 3.8% yield.

Those smartphones and telephones are not acting defensive at all today with Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) down 0.9% at $40.80 with its 5% yield and with AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) down 0.7% at $33.36 with a 5.4% yield.

Some investors are willing to suffer from the near-zero return of Treasuries, while others are going to try to look for the safest of stocks to seek safe and steady dividends. The DJIA is down 0.7% and the S&P 500 was down 0.6% at last look. Both are actually much better than what we were looking at just two hours or so ago.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Defensive Stocks, Dividend Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

The Market Where Defensive Shares Are Working Again (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, AWK, MCD, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, KMB, CL, MRK, PFE, JNJ, T, VZ)

Administrator — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:07:03 +0000

Blame whatever you want. A weaker U.S. economy, a weakening and flailing Europe, a move to socialism in France and Greece, a weaker BRIC and emerging market story, commodity prices and on and on… Commodity prices and their tracking shares are getting hosed today. Why does the “Sell in May and go away!” profile often coincide with sell-offs so well?

After the weakness in the broad market has the DJIA down 140 points (or -1.1%) and the S&P 500 Index down 15 points or 1.1%, it turns out that most of the defensive stock sector leaders are holding up far better than the broad market in our go-to defensive stock portfolio. We have taken a look at each of these with share price snapshots right before Noon EST.

No matter what, you gotta drink! Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) is down 0.5% at $66.28 against a 52-week high of $71.89; Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is down 0.4% at $76.97 against a 52-week high of $77.82. With yields of about 3% on average, these are now challenging the 30-Year Treasury yields. The beer segment is not acting defensive as it should, perhaps because they are foreign issues now with more currency risks: Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (NYSE: BUD) and Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE: TAP) are not acting very defensive with price corrections of 3% and 2$ respectively.

Perhaps the most defensive you can get is water, and the top water utility is American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) with a premium valuation. This water leader is down 0.8% at $33.73 against a 52-week and all-time high of $34.89.

Food is supposed to be defensive, although a drop of 1.5% in McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) to $94.10 is causing some added stress in what was the darling of the DJIA in 2011. The rest of the defensive food segment seems to be less damaged when you evaluate the moves: Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is down only 0.4% at $39.11; ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down 0.7% at $25.52; Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) is down only 0.3% at $33.97; and Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is down only 1 penny at $28.92 as the world is getting excited about Spam again.

Smoking is defensive again and the tobacco stocks are holding up much better than the broad market with those 5% and higher dividends: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is down only $0.3% at $32.10 against a 52-week high of $32.62; Vector Group Ltd. (NYSE: VGR) is down only 0.2% at $16.88; and Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) is down only 0.2% at $40.18 against a high of $42.81.

Shaving, diapers, toilet paper, and other consumer products are acting defensive with some gains on a weak day. Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is trading up $0.11 at $64.36 and Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up $0.08 at $79.08 with KMB challenging the 52-week high. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) is down ‘only’ 0.5% at $99.10 against a 52-week high of $100.81.

Drug and medical is holding up on the consumer end with losses look far less than the broader market: Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is down 0.35% at $38.40; Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is down 0.3% at $22.38; and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is down the least with a drop of 0.2% at $64.65 against a 52-week high of $68.05.

Those smartphones and telephones are somewhat defensive, and those 5%-plus yields sure shield investors who are worried about chasing the hottest growth stocks. Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) is down only 1-penny at $40.52 with a 5% dividend yield and AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) is actually up 0.2% at $33.08 with a yield of about 5.4%.

When investors want safety and when the Treasury yield is so low on the longer-term Treasury market, many investors turn to the safety of the higher dividends and safer stocks that are defensive. Greece and the rest of PIIGS may fall again, but the logic is that U.S. consumers still have to eat, drink, shave, put on deodorant, and tend to stick with their core vices as best as they can.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Consumer Goods, Defensive Stocks, Dividend, Drug companies, Food, Telecom, Tobacco Tagged: AWK, BUD, CAG, CL, CPB, HRL, JNJ, KFT, KMB, KO, MCD, MO, MRK, PEP, PFE, PG, RAI, T, TAP, VGR, VZ

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (XOM, WDC, RAX, NLY, EMR, BBX, CAG, GME, IHS, LULU, PERY, SONC, NCTY, DG, DISCA, RGR, SWHC, BTFG, DMND)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 22 Mar 2012 20:06:33 +0000

Markets opened sharply this morning and remained in negative territory all day. Purchasing managers’ indexes in the eurozone and in China came in lower than expected this morning, weighing European and Asian shares. The US dollar index rose slightly today, now up 0.10% at 79.733. Commodities were mixed on the dollar strength, with grains and sugar higher, and most other commodities lower. The US EIA weekly natural gas storage report showed a gain of 11 billion cubic feet in US inventories, sending natural gas prices tumbling nearly -4%. (our coverage here). WTI crude oil closed down -1.8% at $105.35/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -0.88% at $123.11/barrel. Gold settled down -0.5% today, at $1,642.50/ounce, a nine-week low.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 78 points to 13,046.14 (-0.60%), the NASDAQ fell 12 points (-0.39%) to 3,063,32, and the S&P 500 fell -0.72% or about 10 points to 1,392,79.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) raised to ‘neutral’ with a $92 target price at JPMorgan; Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) raised to ‘strong buy’ at Needham; Rackspace Hosting Inc. (NYSE: RAX) cut to ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs; Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) cut to ‘underperform’ at Sterne Agee; and Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) raised to ‘buy’ at Nomura.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: BankAtlantic Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: BBX) is down -1.7% at $3.97; ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down -0.6% at $26.21; Gamestop Corp. (NYSE: GME) is down -6% at $23.17; IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS) is down -4.9% at $92.89; Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) is up 2.9% at $76.20 after posting a new 52-week high of $76.66 earlier today; Perry Ellis International Inc. (NASDAQ: PERY) is up 3% at $18.42; Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC) is down -6.8% at $7.50; and The9 Ltd. (NASDAQ: NCTY) is down -5% at $7.01.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG) is up 3.33% at $46.24 after posting a new 52-week high of $46.95 earlier today. The discount retailer posted better than expected earnings results. More coverage here.

Discovery Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: DISCA) is down -0.35% at $48.16. The cable network may take a big loss its investment in the Oprah Winfrey Network. More coverage here.

Sturm, Ruger & Co. (NYSE: RGR) is up 13.4% at $47.95 after posting a new 52-week high today of $48.24. Smith & Wesson Holdings Co. (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up nearly 14% at $7.84 after posting a new 52-week high of $8.00. The gunmakers are rising on Ruger’s announcement that it will not be accepting any new orders until May because it is fully booked. More coverage here.

Banc Trust Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: BTFG) is down more than -18% at $1.22. The bank holding company warned on earnings this morning. More coverage here.

Diamond Foods Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) is down -8% at $23.59. The snack food maker is suspending its dividend. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are giving speeches. We have also noted the following event on the schedule (all times Eastern):

10:00 a.m. – New home sales

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close, The Day Tagged: BBX, BTFG, CAG, DG, DISCA, DMND, EMR, GME, IHS, LULU, NCTY, NLY, PERY, RAX, RGR, SONC, SWHC, WDC, XOM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (T, FFIV, URBN, AMGN, BAX, CAG, GIS, NAV, SAFM, JEF, NKE, ORCL, TRGT, CIE, CSIQ, PBH, HOV, CVS)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 21:06:30 +0000

US equity markets opened sharply higher this morning and have been able to sustain and even add to those gains throughout the day. Business and consumer confidence indexes in Europe were higher, giving an early boost to share prices. Then an unexpectedly large jump in new housing starts, especially multi-family dwellings, put an extra charge into investors. Proposed Federal Reserve rules governing big banks have had little impact on financial stocks, which are up about 4% in the late afternoon. Today’s auction of five-year Treasury went out at 0.880%, a record low yield. Crude oil is also sharply higher today, with WTI trading at $97.22/barrel, up more than 3.5%, and Brent is up 3.34% at $106.98. The US dollar has traded weaker all day today. Gold settled on the Comex up about 1.3%, at $1,616.80.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 336 points to 12,101.92 (2.85%), the NASDAQ rose more than 80 points (3.19%) to 2,603.73, and the S&P 500 rose 2.98% or nearly 36 points to 1,241.22.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan. Other ratings actions today include F5 Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIV) cut from ‘perform’ to ‘underperform’ at Oppenheimer; Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) raised from ‘outperform’ to ‘Top Pick’ at FBR Capital; Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) added to ‘Strong Buy List’ at Zacks; and Baxter International Inc. (NYSE: BAX) lowered from ‘Top Pick List’ to ‘outperform’ and target price lowered from $61 to $58 at RBC Capital Markets.

Here are today’s post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is up 4% at $26.18; General Mills Inc. is down about -1% at $39.19; Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) is up nearly 7% at $39.05; Sanderson Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFM) is down -4% at $48.66; and Jefferies Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) is up more than 22% at $14.46. After markets close today we get earnings from Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). See our 360 coverage on Oracle here and coverage of the ConAgra and General Mills reports here.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Targacept Inc. (NASDAQ: TRGT) is down more than -35% at $5.01, after posting a new 52-week low of $4.92 earlier in the day. The pharmaceutical maker’s anti-depressant drug, developed in conjunction with AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) has failed a late-stage trial.

Cobalt International Energy Inc. (NYSE: CIE) is up nearly 38% at $13.81. The oil & gas exploration company has signed a production-sharing agreement for a block offshore of Angola. Cobalt owns 40% of the project and is the operator.

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) is up nearly 33% at $2.93. The solar panel maker has sold about 86 megawatts of generation to TransCanada Corp. (NYSE: TRP) for approximately $455 million.

Prestige Brand Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PBH) is up nearly 21% at $11.27. The drug and cleaning supplies company paid $660 million for a selection of nonprescription drugs from GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE: GSK).

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is up more than 18% at $1.50. The home builder is riding the wave of good news about new housing starts.

CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) is up about 9% at $39.85, after posting a new 52-week high earlier of $39.86. The healthcare company raised fiscal year guidance and boosted its quarterly dividend by 30%, to $0.1625/share.

Stay tuned for Wednesday. The most widely anticipated report for tomorrow is due at 8:30 a.m. from the National Association of Realtors, which will be revising its new home sales data from 2007 forward. Lower sales of up to -13% are expected. Here are other noteworthy events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 a.m. – Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly petroleum status report
1:00 p.m. – 7-year Treasury note auction

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: AMGN, BAX, CAG, CIE, CSIQ, CVS, FFIV, GIS, HOV, JEF, NAV, NKE, ORCL, PBH, SAFM, T, TRGT, URBN

ConAgra, General Mills Look Ahead to 2012… Quite Differently (CAG, GIS, KFT, HNZ, K)

Paul Ausick — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 18:56:23 +0000

Food producers have been battling rising commodity costs, higher fuel costs, and higher packaging costs by raising their prices. That appears to be working decently for ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) and not so well for General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS), both of which reported second fiscal quarter earnings this morning. Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT, H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ), and Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) have all fought the same battle with mixed success.

ConAgra reported reported adjusted EPS of $0.47, compared with a consensus estimate of $0.43. Revenue came in at $3.4 billion, compared with an estimate of $3.34 billion. In the same period a year ago, ConAgra posted EPS of $0.46 on $3.15 billion in revenue.

General Mills reported adjusted EPS of $0.76, below estimates of $0.79. Revenue beat expectations of $4.6 billion, coming in at $4.62 billion. A year ago, General Mills posted adjusted EPS of $0.92 on revenue of $4.1 billion.

ConAgra expects EPS growth in the low- to mid-single digit range for the 2012 fiscal year. The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.80 for the full year ending in May, compared with EPS of $1.75 last year. ConAgra, which failed in a hostile takeover attempt on Ralcorp Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RAH), has been making small acquisitions to boost its revenues.

General Mills forecasts full-year EPS of $2.59-$2.61, while the consensus estimate is $2.61, up from $2.48 last year. The company is looking to its recently acquired controlling stake in yogurt maker Yoplait to help boost earnings.

In the early afternoon today, ConAgra shares are up more than 3.5% at $26.10, after posting a new 52-week high this earlier of $26.38. Trading volume is heavy, with 4.8 million already having trading hands today, compared with a daily average of 4 million.

General Mills shares are down about -1.5% at $39.00 in a 52-week range of $34.54-$40.72. Volume is also heavy in the shares, with more than 5 million traded so far today compared with a daily average of about 4.6 million.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Earnings, Food, HI/LOW Tagged: CAG, GIS, HNZ, K, KFT

Food Processing Stocks With Most Upside (ADM, BG, TSN, SFD, CPO, CAG, KFT, SLE, GIS, K)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 19:01:24 +0000

The companies we’re looking at today run the gamut from large farm and food products producers to the packaged goods makers that make the products on store shelves. It’s a wide range, for sure, but all are exposed to both commodity prices on one end and on consumer purchasing on the other.

Large farm products companies like Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) have watch corn and wheat prices decline by about -20% and -29% since peaks earlier this year. Fertilizer prices have risen and so have fuel prices. All have an impact on revenues and earnings.

Processing companies like Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD), Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE: CPO), and ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) package private label foods, provide commercial food, and even offer some branded products. The diversity of their customers gives them a bit of a barrier against a collapse in one or another of their markets.

Packaged food giants like Kraft Inc. (NYSE: KFT), Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE), General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS), and Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) are all household names and depend on strong brands to carry them through slow economic times.

Data from Yahoo! Finance, and current share prices gathered about noon today.

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM) has a median target price of $35.00 from 13 brokers. Shares are trading today at $28.88, for an implied gain of $6.12, or 21%. ADM’s forward P/E is 8.52 and the company pays a dividend yield of 2.3%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $23.69-$38.02, and at today’s price that’s about 22% above its 52-week low and 24% below the 52-week high. This year’s wheat harvest looks to be on a near-record pace, and wheat prices are expected to fall to below $6/bushel by the end of the year from a current price of around $6.36.

Rising corn prices hit ADM hard in its most recent quarter, lowering profit in its biofuel (ethanol) division by -23% and in its sweetener and starches division by -81%. Corn prices are currently expected to remain about the same into next year, which won’t help ADM’s processing revenue. Fortunately for the company its trading profits will get a boost from the higher corn prices.

Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) has a median target price of $74.00 from 11 brokers. Shares are trading today at $61.38, for an implied gain of $12.62, or 21%. Bunge’s forward P/E is 9.32 and the company pays a dividend yield of 1.6%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $54.03-$76.13, and at today’s price that’s about 14% above its 52-week low and 19% below the 52-week high.

Bunge missed EPS estimates badly in its third quarter as the company ran afoul of volatility in the grain markets. The company painted a brighter picture for its fourth quarter, basing its view on the tightness of supply and the rising demand for food.

Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) has a median target price of $23.00 from 15 brokers. Shares are trading today at $19.27, for an implied gain of $3.73, or 19%. Tyson’s forward P/E is 9.53 and the company pays a dividend yield of 0.8%. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $14.79-$20.12, and at today’s price that’s about 30% above its 52-week low and 4% below the 52-week high.

Tyson will report earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter on November 21st. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.32, half as much as the same period a year ago. Rising feed costs have hammered revenues and earnings this year, and Tyson and other chicken producers are trying to get its customers to share commodity price risk by taking shorter term contracts tied to the cost of feed grains.

Filed under: Agriculture, Analyst Calls, Consumer Goods, Food Tagged: ADM, BG, CAG, CPO, GIS, K, KFT, SFD, SLE, TSN

Top Debt & Ratings Agency Actions (AMR, GM, LVLT, CAG, TRI)

Administrator — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 19:39:31 +0000

Today’s ratings agency actions include a new rating on off-balance sheet arrangement by AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), parent of troubled American Airlines, and other actions involving General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT), and Thomson Reuters Inc. (NYSE: TRI).

AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) has received a rating of ‘A-’ on its series 2011-2 class A pass-through certificates that are expected to mature on October 15, 2021. The company plans to issue $726 million of equipment notes secured by 43 aircraft to refinance airplanes already owned by AMR.

According to S&P, the pass-through certificates are protected under US bankruptcy law and liquidity facilities through Morgan Stanley Bank. The liquidity facilities are intended to pay up to three semi-annual interest payments and re-marketed by certificate holders following any default by AMR. The liquidity facilities also maintain continuity of interest payments when/if AMR enters negotiations with certificate holders in a bankruptcy proceeding.

The certificates were registered under a shelf registration in September and will be purchased by a newly formed trust as each aircraft is purchased. The notes carry an interest rate of 8.625%.

S&P referred to yesterday’s reports of AMR’s possible bankruptcy and said that the agency believes that AMR’s current liquidity combined with the sale of the certificates was “still adequate.” However, if the company’s cash and short term investments fall below $3 billion, S&P said it “could lower our ratings.”

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) received an upgraded issuer default rating from ‘BB-’ to ‘BB’ at Fitch Ratings. The company’s rating outlook was also upgraded from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive’. The ratings also apply to GM Holdings LLC, and GM Financial Co., Inc., both subsidiaries of GM. Fitch noted, among other things contributing to the upgrade, that the new contract with the United Auto Workers “appears to provide the company with sufficient financial and operational flexibility to allow a continuation of the positive progress it has made since emerging from bankruptcy in 2009.”

Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) received an upgrade to its corporate family and probability of default ratings from ‘Caa1′ to ‘B3′ from Moody’s. The agency said that the now-closed transaction with Global Crossing Ltd. should allow the company to become “modestly cash flow positive on a sustained basis with two years.” The new rating was also applied to a new $650 million senior secured term loan at Level 3′s financing subsidiary and the company’s assumption of senior unsecured debt originally issued to another Level 3 subsidiary.

ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) received a preliminary ‘BBB’/'BBB-’ rating from S&P on a shelf registration of senior unsecured/subordinated debt that does not include a total offering amount or a number of debt securities. The company’s corporate rating is ‘BBB’ with a stable outlook.

Thomson Reuters Inc. (NYSE: TRI) received a ‘A-’ rating from S&P on $350 million in senior unsecured notes due 2021. The company plans to use the proceeds to repay borrowing from it commercial paper program. Thomson Reuters carries a corporate credit rating ‘A-’ with a ‘Stable’ outlook.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Analyst Calls, Bonds, Brokerage Firms, Research Tagged: AMR, CAG, GM, LVLT, TRI

Defensive Stocks Working Against The Bears (BUD, MO, RAI, CPB, CAG, KMB, PG)

Administrator — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 19:17:11 +0000

On days when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 200 points or more, we generally look at the defensive stock sector to see if these are holding up. Many investors want equity exposure, and it is the defensive stock sectors of food, beverage, basic consumer products, tobacco, and others with their high dividends which often fall far less than the broad market. Some even rise.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (NYSE: BUD) is up 0.25% at $52.84 and the 52-week range is $49.05 to $64.77.

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO) is FLAT at $26.81 and the 52-week range is $23.20 to $28.13; Reynolds American Inc, (NYSE: RAI) is up 0.3% at $37.60 and the 52-week range is $29.05 to $39.87.

Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB) is up 0.7% at $32.59; 52-week range is $29.69 to $36.99. ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) is down “only” 0.4% at $24.12; 52-week range is $21.02 to $26.60.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is up $0.03 at $71.04; 52-week range is $61.00 to $71.78. Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) is up $0.05 at $63.23; 52-week range is $57.56 to $67.72.

Sometimes a little win or a small loss feels like a big victory. With just under an hour until the market close, the DJIA is down almost 200 points at 10,720 and the closest handle on the S&P 500 down almost 2.1% is 1,108. Another day, another bunch of lost dollars for the public.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Defensive Stocks, Dividend, The Day Tagged: BUD, CAG, CPB, KMB, MO, PG, RAI

Poor Judgment by Ralcorp’s Board

David J. Phillips — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 10:26:57 +0000

Ralcorp’s (NYSE:RAH) board of directors unanimously rejected the latest merger proposal from ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG), saying the $5.18 billion unsolicited bid was not in the best interest of the company. Given the tender offer represented more than a 25% premium over current trading prices, one has to question whether board members truly represented the fiduciary interests of shareholders.

The maker of Chef Boyardee, Healthy Choice, PAM no-stick cooking spray and other food products, has made several unsuccessful bids for Ralcorp since March, culminating in a recent $94.00 per share offer in cash. St. Louis-based Ralcorp has repeatedly spurned the offers, opining it could best unlock shareholder value by spinning off its Post Foods division, which includes brands Honey Bunches of Oats, Grape Nuts and Fruity Pebbles, from its private label (store brand) and ready-to-eat foodstuffs (like cereals, cookies and pasta).

Golden Parachutes for Key Executives

Considering the purchase price was higher than Ralcorp has ever traded at, it is hard to fathom why senior management failed to endorse ConAgra’s offer, especially given the personal payday that awaited each of them under “change-in-control” clauses contained in their respective employee agreements. In a buyout, co-chief executives Kevin Hunt and David Skarie each stood to pocket, at a minimum, $15 million (including $3.7 million in accrued salaries and cash bonuses, and in excess of $6 million in stock awards). Chief financial officer Thomas Granneman left more than $5 million on the table, too (including $3 million in three-years worth of salary and average annual cash bonuses, and more than $2 million in stock awards). Furthermore, actual payouts to named executives would have been significantly higher, as these severance packages were based on the closing price of Ralcorp on September 30, 2010 ($58.48 a share), according to the 2011 proxy statement.

Post Brand Cereals Were the Future — Back in 2008

That management and the board of directors now believe that a spin-off of Post brands is the better option to boost value for its shareholders — as opposed to an acquisition by ConAgra — is odd, considering the same guys were the cheerleaders behind the $2.6 billion purchase of the same ready-to-eat brands from Kraft Foods (NYSE:KFT) in 2008.

“A transforming event for Ralcorp — the addition of Post cereals gives Ralcorp a truly distinctive line of branded cereal products plus a branded infrastructure and platform that we can build on through organic growth and acquisitions,” David P. Skarie said in November 2007.

For the nine-months ended June 30, segment profit for Post brands contributed 33.3%, or $160.6 million, of $481 million in total segment profits. By comparison, Ralcorp derived just $64.4 million, or 13.3% of income from the manufacturing of third-party cereals. In addition, branded profit margins of 22% almost doubled those of its private-label operations.

Though Post-branded cereals remain the profit cow for the company, the Kraft purchase did not exactly shake up the cereal category or propel Ralcorp above also-ran status. The brand remains mired in third place and, looking ahead, management is acutely aware that growing margins will be difficult, given competitive obstacles, the incessant promotional and bidding wars with industry leaders Kellogg (NYSE: K) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS) for slotting space on the shelves of supermarket chains and discount retailers such as Walmart (NYSE:WMT).

Management has admitted, too, on recent quarterly conference calls that operating efficiency gains will unlikely be significant enough to offset the adverse effect of $200 million in cost inflation, from increases in packaging and freight to primary ingredients (such as durum wheat, cashews and peanuts).

Ralcorp is the nation’s largest supplier of private label cereal, including copycats of more than 30 of the top national brands and (20 hot cereals). Ergo, looking ahead, management believes manufacturing higher unit volumes of store brand products could better insulate forward profitability from the aforementioned competitive headwinds.

Some on Wall St., disagree with Ralcorp’s internal optimism. Morningstar analyst Erin Lash argues that spinning off Post would prove to be a “value-destroying investment for Ralcorp’s shareholders,” as Post trails rivals Kellogg and General Mills in the “highly-competitive’’ cereal category.

It is unlikely that a Post spin-off would improve Ralcorp’s financial flexibility. On June 30, trailing twelve-month total debt stood at 3.2 times operating EBITDA and more than 70% of total assets on the balance sheet was fluff: some $4.8 billion of goodwill and other intangibles.

According to regulatory filings, as part of the split, Post is expected to generate approximately $1 billion in net cash for the company. However, $545 million of these proceeds will go towards the company’s August 2011 purchase of Sara Lee’s (NYSE: SLE) refrigerated dough business, leaving little left over to make a dent in the $2.4 billion in long-term debt.

In addition, the 10Q Detective notes that post-split, private-label Ralcorp will lose the cash flow contribution from the higher-margin branded cereal business!

Break-Up Value?

Ralcorp appears fairly valued based on sector comparisons: 18.6 times trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings, which is 16.2% and 28.7% higher than the TTM of Kellogg and General Mills, respectively.

Wall St. itself is divided on much additional market value a Post cereal spin-off would generate longer-term to existing shareholders, with post-split capitalizations ranging from the mid $70-range up to $90 a share. BB&T Capital Markets analyst Heather Jones estimates the private label part of Ralcorp could fetch an estimated 9 to 9.5 times EBITDA, and Post about 8 times, suggesting a total post-split value of $85 to $90 a share — lower still than ConAgra’s $94 per share (all cash) offer!

“Cuckoo” — but Not for Cocoa Pebbles

Even with a mouthful of cereal and milk, the audible sounds of fiduciary irresponsibility by the board cannot be muffled. One is left to ask, did the board fear losing more than complimentary boxes of Cocoa Pebbles in a ConAgra takeover — such as the cushy $200,000 (+) annual stipend for showing up eight to 13 times a year for board meetings?

While frustrated Ralcorp shareholders are left pondering what possessed the board to ignore ConAgra’s more-than generous merger bid, they might also want to question management on the following potential conflict, too: How come this “independent board” still sits three members with common ties to Energizer Holdings (NYSE: ENR), including William P. Stiritz, who chairs Ralcorp’s board, and J. Patrick Mulcahy, Energizer’s current chairman? It has been 17 and 11 years, respectively, since the food and battery companies were sent packing from the Ralston Purina (NYSE: RAL) family.

Since when does selling batteries make one an expert on food goods? Unfortunately, it is unlikely the Energizer bunny can do much to keep Ralcorp’s stock price “going and going.”

David Phillips

Filed under: Mergers and Buy Outs Tagged: CAG, ENR, GIS, K, KFT, RAH, RAL, SLE, WMT

Top Debt & Credit Rating Agency Actions (UTX, GR, GM, LSTZA, LSTZB, LCAPA, LCAPB, BRK-A, BRK-B, CAG, OWW, WWWW, CMI)

247wallst — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:43:21 +0000

Today’s ratings actions are led-off by Moody’s affirmation of its ‘A2′ senior unsecured and ‘Prime-1′ short-term ratings on United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX). The affirmation follows United’s announced acquisition of Goodrich Corp. (NYSE: GR) for $18.4 billion in cash. Moody’s noted the complementary nature of the deal and United’s historically strong “fiscal conservatism” as support for the ratings affirmation. Moody’s also noted that it was placing Goodrich’s ‘Baa2′ senior unsecured rating under review for a possible upgrade. Standard & Poor’s also put Goodrich on CreditWatch with positive implications.

Other rating actions were announced for General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), Liberty Media LLC, Lubrizol Corp., now wholly-owned by Berkshire-Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A; BRK-B), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW), Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW), and Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI)

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is having its ‘Ba2′ corporate family rating and its ‘Baa3′ secured credit facility ratings reviewed for possible upgrade at Moody’s. The company’s new union contract and its improved operating and financial performance are the drivers of the review. Global economic uncertainty and the cyclic nature of the automaking business are the agency’s biggest concern. Also today, S&P assigned ‘AAA’ ratings to $500 million in asset-backed notes for Ally Bank. The funds are primarily intended to finance purchases of new cars from GM and Chrysler.

Liberty Media LLC and its Liberty Starz Group (NASDAQ: LSTZA; LSTZB) and Liberty Capital Group (NASDAQ: LCAPA; LCAPB) have received a ratings downgrade from Moody’s on senior unsecured bonds from ‘B1′ to ‘B3′ and the probability of default rating was downgraded from ‘Ba3′ to ‘B1′. The downgrades follow a court ruling that allows Liberty Media to split-off certain assets. The agency noted that 18% of Liberty Media’s revenues and 37% its enterprise value are being removed, which “disproportionately and negatively affect Liberty Media’s bondholders.”

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A; BRK-B) subsidiary Lubrizol Corp. received a ratings upgrade from Moody’s following its acquistion by Warren Buffett’s company. The agency raised Lubrizol’s debt ratings from ‘Baa1′ to ‘Aa2′ with a stable outlook. There’s no substitute for having access to really deep pockets, or as Moody’s says, Berkshire-Hathaway “now guarantees Lubrizol’s public debt.”

ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) has had its ‘BBB’ corporate credit and its ‘A-2′ short-term and commercial paper rating, among others, re-affirmed by S&P following ConAgra’s decision to give up its attempts to acquire Ralcorp Holdings Inc. (NYSE: RAH). All the company’s ratings have been removed from CreditWatch and the ratings outlook has been declared stable.

Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW) has had its ‘B’ corporate credit rating put on CreditWatch with negative implications by S&P. The agency downgraded debt for Travelport Holdings Ltd. yesterday, which together with The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) owns 55% of Orbitz.

Web.com Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) received a preliminary rating of ‘B’ with a stable outlook from S&P on its corporate credit.

Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) received a corporate credit upgrade from ‘BBB+’ to ‘A’ from S&P. Cummins is an engine and parts maker and has been performing above expectations for the past three quarters. Analysts have raised EPS estimates for the current quarter by 10%.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: General Tagged: BRK-A, BRK-B, CAG, CMI, GM, GR, LCAPA, LCAPB, LSTZA, LSTZB, OWW, UTX, WWWW