Posts for Ticker ‘CAKE’

Food Investor Alert: Fat & Calorie Displays At Food Chains (MCD, YUM, BWLD, CAKE, PFCB, RRGB, EAT, BKC, WEN, TXRH, SONC, CPKI)

If you like to invest in food chain restaurants, Thursday was a bad day as a group of bipartisan senators are trying to require chains to list calories on their menus.  This is aimed at the big restaurant chains with 20 locations of the same name rather than mom and pop stores.  If you can believe it, fast food and casual dining restaurant owners McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) already have this available online.  Some of the big chains out there make this available and some do not.

Imagine if (or when) you are forced to see the calorie, salt, and fat counts for many of your favorite foods such as Buffalo Wings at Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD). Or what about some of those oversized plates big enough for two or three meals at The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE)?  And what if you tally up the full calories and sodium in Chinese food at PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. (NASDAQ: PFCB)?  Or a Monster Burger at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB).  Or what about Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) chains like Chili’s for the Texas Cheese Fries?

We do not mean to pick on any single chain by naming menu items or chains, because this  could affect all big chain owners to the likes of Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE:WEN), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH), Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC), California Pizza Kitchen Inc., (NASDAQ: CPKI), and many more.  The news of this had a significant negative impact on most of these stocks today when you consider we had an up market.
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Posted on: June 11, 2009 – 4:33 pm in Consumer Goods, Food, Law, Politics, Regulation, Retail, , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market analyst Upgrades (AUTH, CBRL, CAKE, DRI, KR, LGF, PNRA, PMC, VLTR)

These are some of the top upgrades and positive calls we are seeing this Tuesday morning on Wall Street:

  • AuthenTec (AUTH) Started At Buy at Stanford Group.
  • CBRL Group (CBRL) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James.
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James.
  • Kroger (KR) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Lions Gate (LGF) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
  • Panera Bread (PNRA) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James.
  • PharMerica (PMC) Started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR) Raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray.

Jon C. Ogg
October 21, 2008

Posted on: October 21, 2008 – 7:03 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Cheesecake Factory Added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List (CAKE)

The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) is being added to Goldman Sachs CONVICTION BUY LIST.  This call is reflecting a view of early cycle casual diners and a fundamental view on recent strategic changes.  Goldman Sachs likes the more disciplined spending and plans for slower growth in an effort to yield better operating results.  There is also a belief that share repurchases for close to 10% of its float can be driven by free cash flows. 

Jon C. Ogg
February 11, 2008

Posted on: February 11, 2008 – 7:50 am in Analyst Calls,

Pre-Market Stock News (December 20, 2007) (ACN, ATVI, ALTU, ARRY, ATHX, BSC, BX, CAKE, ECHO, INTU, FDX, MLHR, IDEV, LDK, LEG, LOCM, NKE, ORCL, PIR, RIMM, RAD, RUTH, SMOD, SCS, DEEP, TRB)

This is not every bit of news on individual stocks but this is the major news affecting many shares in pre-market activity this Thursday morning:

  • Accenture (ACN) stock up 4% after posting $0.60 EPS vs. estimate of $0.56.
  • Activision (ATVI) again guided earnings higher.
  • Altus Pharmaceuticals (ALTU) traded down almost 20% after it reacquired ALTU-238 development and commercialization rights for North America from Genentech, an end to the development pact.
  • Array BioPharma (ARRY) traded down almost 20% after it announced initial results from a Phase II study comparing its monotherapy with temozolomide in the first-line treatment of advanced melanoma showed no apparent difference in efficacy for the primary endpoint.
  • Athersys (ATHX) and Angiotech announce authorization of Phase I stem cell trial for heart attacks.
  • Bear Stearns (BSC) expected to post first loss.
  • Blackstone (BX) plans to sell a $9 Billion CMBS offer backed by Hilton Hotels in Q1 2008.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) had a 10% stake taken by activist Nelson Peltz.
  • Electronic Clearing house (ECHO) getting acquired by intuit for $17.00 per share.
  • FedEx (FDX) $1.54 EPS vs. $1.50 estimates (had been lowered) but next quarter $1.15-1.30 vs. $1.38 est.; $6.40 to $6.70 for year bvs. $6.47 estimate.
  • Herman Miller (MLHR) $0.72EPS Vs. estimate of $0.59; stock rose about 10%.
  • Indevus Pharma (IDEV) trading down about 5% on a non-approvable letter from the FDA for VALSTAR NDA supplement (submitted May 2007).
  • Intuit (INTU) paying $131 Million for ECHO.
  • LDK Solar (LDK) $0.37 EPS on $157M revenues vs. $0.37/$143.22M est.; Q4 guidance $0.40-$0.41 on $180-$185M revenues vs. $0.41/$167.5M est.; stock indicated down 5%.
  • Leggett & Platt (LEG) stock down about 5% on lower guidance.
  • Local.com (LOCM) announced a strategic partnership with IAC/Interactive’s Citysearch; stock trading up 7% on news.
  • Nike (NKE) traded up 3% after $0.71 EPS on $4.3 Billion revenues vs. estimates $0.66/$4.3B.
  • Oracle (ORCL) traded up 6% after beating earnings and giving slightly higher guidance; sees enterprise spending lasting into 2008.
  • Pier 1 (PIR) -$0.11 EPS vs -$0.24 estimate.
  • Research-in-Motion (RIMM) reports earnings after the close today.
  • Rite Aid (RAD) indicated down about 5% after posting loss.
  • Ruths Chris (RUTH) gave an earnings warning.
  • Smart Modular Tech (SMOD) $0.18 EPS vs. $0.17 estimate.
  • Steelcase (SCS) $0.30 EPS vs. $0.28 estimate.
  • Superior Offshore (DEEP) signed a letter of intent with a strategic partner for ownership of a DP-III deepwater construction and dive support vessel expected to be delivered in late 2008.
  • Tribune (TRB) buyout supposedly set to close today.

Jon C. Ogg
December 20, 2007

Posted on: December 20, 2007 – 8:02 am in Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Short Sellers Lighten Up On Growth Restaurant Chains (RRGB, PZZA, MSSR, BWLD, SBUX, CAKE, TXRH, CBRL, PFCB, PNRA)

We’ve started seeing some of the recent emptier pockets of Joe Q. Consumer, and after a warning yesterday out of McCormick & Schmicks’s we wanted to see how some of the NASDAQ growth restaurant chains were doing as far as short sellers were concerned.  Interstingly enough, of the ones we look at with regularity that get media coverage it seems like there is actually a drop in short selling from August to September.  Below is a list of companies in the sector along with the shares short in September and a percentage change from the August count of the short interest:

  • Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB)         3.304M  -1.13%
  • Papa John’s (PZZA)                         2.245M   -2.91%
  • McCormick & Schmick’s (MSSR)  1.497M   -6.22%
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)           3.293M    -6.4%
  • Starbucks (SBUX)                          25.725M   -6.98%
  • Cheesecake factory (CAKE)         11.636M   -7.55%
  • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)                7.066M    -7.93%
  • CBRL Group (CBRL)                       4.727M  -14.92%
  • P.F.Chang’s (PFCB)                         7.051M  +2.54%
  • Panera Bread (PNRA)                      4.688M  +7.91%

Here are some key related articles that may give added insight:

Jon C. Ogg
September 26, 2007

Posted on: September 26, 2007 – 9:01 am in Food, Short Interest, , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (September 25, 2007)

ACLI cut to Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald.
ARRS cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BKR cut to Neutral at Oppenheimer.
BRCM cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
BZH started as Sell at UBS.
CAKE started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CCBL cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
CKR started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
CSG cut to Underperform at Bear Stearns.
CTX started as Buy at UBS.
DF cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
DHI started as Sell at UBS.
EMC started as Buy at B of A.
EMC started as Buy at Jefferies.
FLWS raised to Outperform at CIBC.
GOL raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
GYI started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
HOV started as Neutral at UBS.
JBX started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
K cut to Peer PErform at Bear Stearns.
KBH started as Buy at UBS.
LEN started as Sell at UBS.
MCD started as neutral at Credit Suisse.
MMC cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
MTH started as Neutral at UBS.
NILE started as Sector Perform at CIBC.
NTAP started as Neutral at Bank of America.
NVDA started as Neutral at UBS.
PACR cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
PFCB started as Underperform at Credit Suisse.
PHM started as Sell at UBS.
RHT started as Sector Perform at RBC.
RT started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
RYL started as Neutral at UBS.
SNIC raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SPF started as Sell at UBS.
TAM raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
TXRH started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
WON raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.

Jon C. Ogg
September 25, 2007

Posted on: September 25, 2007 – 7:08 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Stock News (July 10, 2007)

(AA) Alcoa $0.81 EPS vs $0.81e; will likely have to sweeten Alcan bid before getting any approval from Alcan.
(BOT) CBOT holders approve the CME merger offer.
(CACS) Carrier Access lowered guidance.
(CAKE) Cheesecake Factory put revenues at $373.2 million vs $371 million consensus estimate.
(CVTX) CV Therapeutics identified possible anti-diabetic characteristics in Ranexa.
(DELL) Dell has new smaller business initiative being released today.
(ENCY) Encysive announced its CFO is resigning.
(FORM) Form Factor in strategic pact with Elpida for test cost reductions.
(GMST) Gemstar TV-Guide hired UBS to explore strategic alternatives.
(HD) Home Depot issued earnings warning, but stock called flat to marginally higher.
(LXK) Lexmark issued earnings warning.
(SHLD) Sears lowered guidance to %0.98-1.24 EPS (vs. $2.12 est.) because of home appliances and other sales being weaker; increased share buyback plan.
(THRX)  Theravance announced positive results from phase II clinical study that met primary endpoints fot staph and other skin based infections.
(UNCA) Unica lowered guidance.
(WDFC) WD-40 $0.44 EPS vs $0.47e; lowered annual EPS guidance.

Jon C. Ogg
July 10, 2007

Posted on: July 10, 2007 – 7:08 am in Pre-Market Activity, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

This Week’s Top Active Stock News Stories (June 22, 2007)

Stock Tickers: WB, GE, SMH, TYC, BRK/A, BX, SBUX, KFT, SIRI, XMSR, CAKE, BAM

Most stories come out, affect a stock or a sector, and then cease to matter.  We have numerous stories that started this week, but should be kept up for an active review because many of these will matter in the week or weeks ahead.

If you can believe it, Wachovia (WB) hit a new 52-week low today.  Where did that come from???? Speaking of, many of these ethanol stocks got a boost Friday because of a bill, but some of these were choking on year lows just two days ago.  General Electric (GE) was hitting a new multi-year high this week, as did the chip stock ETF called the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH); neither high held for the week, but these will both be areas to watch.

Tyco International (TYC) will still spit up as of the end of June and start trading for real rather than when-issued on July 2.  At this point, we aren’t all that impressed with the valuation hopes.

Poor Warren Buffett.  He’s the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ and the third richest man, with a great track record.  Yet short sellers are betting more gainst his positions and Jim Cramer gave a breakdown with his own opinion on 10 Buffett picks and then 10 more picks that are current Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) holdings.

 

Jim Cramer did something unique this week, and it wasn’t Eddie Lampert praise.  He endorsed the exceptionally performing Brookfield Asset Management (BAM-NYSE) as "The Next Berkshire Hathaway, but on more of an international and infrastructure basis."  Now I can personally vouch that this company is a beast and a great company, but it doesn’t matter what I have to say.  If that wasn’t just put on more long-term radars for traders to buy on weakness, then it would mean something went very wrong….

If you ask me, I don’t think it is ‘fair or balanced’ but the media is going after the Apple (AAPL-NASDAQ) iPhone.  Yep, the tide of hype and over-coverage has started creating a tough coverage and negative bias.  The stock should get a ’sell the event’ right before and after the iPhone launches next Friday, but it doesn’t seem like Steve Jobs has created the first dud for the company.  The media is trying to pawn it that way though. "None Dare Call It Conspiracy."

General Electric (GE-NYSE) is forking over $1 Million for a TV interview with Paris Hilton when she gets out of jail.  She should have to donate that money to MADD or to Tramps Anyonymous.  This is rewarding for bad behavior.

Blackstone (BX-NYSE) made it public, despite all the media gossip against the private equity behemoth.  They are now a force to be reckoned with, or ‘wreck-ened’ by if you get in their way.  Like you didn’t know that.  They even closed up at $35.06, above the $31.00 pricing.  KKR and Carlyle are said to be filing any day now.

Starbucks (SBUX-NASDAQ) on skid row.  It isn’t the coffee, it isn’t the merchandise.  It’s the point of their growth cycle versus the earnings multiple people will pay for it.

Kraft (KFT-NYSE) may have been be on its own for a few weeks now, but activist investor Nelson Peltz has taken a decent stake in the company.  You can be sure he’s going to be rattling the cages over there to drive shareholder value for the next year.  They don’t have to like him, but they’ll make money if they follow him! This one’s going to be live news for some time.

SIRIUS (SIRI-NASDAQ) and XM Satellite (XMSR-NASDAQ) are cranking up their efforts to get merger support.  It can’t be an accident that both shares were up close to 6% on Friday when the market was in the tubes.  Stay tuned.

We came up with a plan for Cheesecake factory (CAKE-NASDAQ) to fix what it got downgraded over this week.  We didn’t really call it a personal buyout pick, although that could be possible if the stock gets too much weaker after a thrashing Thursday.

Jon C. Ogg
June 22, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 22, 2007 – 4:16 pm in The Week, , , , , , , , , , , ,

How Cheesecake Factory Can Fix Its Downgrade Problems (CAKE)

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE-NASDAQ) is trading down more than 7% to $24.80 on almost triple its normal volume after multiple analyst downgrades based upon comments from a growth conference.  Yesterday, at a William Blair Growth Conference, Cheesecake Factory said second-quarter revenue would increase by 14.5% to 15.5%, implying sales of $369.4 million to $372.6 million.  The problem is that analysts’ consensus forecast is $378.9 million, according to First Call.

This morning Bear Stearns downgraded shares from ‘Outperform’ to ‘Peer Perform’ because higher dairy costs won’t be fully offset by higher menu prices.  Raymond James also downgraded shares from a ‘Strong Buy’ to an ‘Outperform’ rating.  CIBC World Markets also cuts its ‘Sector Outperform’ rating to a lower ‘Sector Perform’ rating, and Robert W. Baird maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating but trimmed earnings estimates.  Back on June 8, shares fell after FBR removed the company from its ‘Top Pick list’ of stocks.  On June 1, shares were trading at $28.39.

Part of the problem is that the food chain is not really in the middle of the road dining establishments and it isn’t really considered ultra-fine or upscale dining.  It’s above the Darden (DRI-NYSE) and Brinker (EAT-NYSE) restaurant chains, and below the high-end steakhouses like Ruth’s Chris (RUTH-NASDAQ).  So what can the company do to offset higher dairy costs and higher food costs?  The company operates ‘The Cheesecake Factory’ and ‘Grand Lux Cafe’ restaurants and if you have been to either of these you will know what I mean when I say "Beltbuster servings" and "To-Go Leftovers."  The portions here are gi-normous where most appetizers can be entrees and entrees can be split.  Higher prices were already indicated as an offset to higher dairy prices, but the company can easily cut down the portions by as little as 5%.  Food cost cuts in a restaurant add right to the bottom line if they aren’t noticed, and the company doesn’t even have to announce they are trimming the sizes if it is by this little.  Most consumers will say this is foodie-sacrilege, but at this operator it will never be missed.

As a reminder, this is a stock that Jim Cramer also said in April could be a target of private equity or a management-endorsed buyout.

Jon C. Ogg
June 21, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

Posted on: June 21, 2007 – 10:03 am in Analyst Calls, Food, , , ,