Water is a sector we consider as a “Must-Have” in most long-term investment portfolios.  We have even gone as far as saying that H2O is one of the key and critical investment sectors for futurists, who often look out a decade or more when evaluating trends.

Investing in water used to be much easier, but now companies like General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) have helped to consolidate the filtration segment of the water-trade.  Both of those are attractive investments from time to time, but both are far too broad to invest in just because they have water exposure that will drive growth in the future.  The top water stock for 2011 from 24/7 Wall St. was American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK) and that remains a favorite today.  Shares were trading around $25.30 when that award was issued versus about $29.00 now.  We continue to love this company and we admire its recent dividend hike.

Our goal is not just to update our own price target in American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK).  We believe that can continue on higher and we now think that $35.00 is feasible.  It just raised its dividend and we expect another dividend hike in a year and then again after that.  Still, the goal is to now identify those water investments which offer both growth and safety ahead as the stock market and economy are facing mixed outlooks.

Since we started covering the sector broadly, a lot has changed. Conversely, much remains the same as well and that is a good thing.  The 2012 election cycle is not far away, the economy is in a soft-patch, Greece is a real threat that could to topple Europe, Japan is trying to get out of the red in its GDP again, and both China and India are trying to slow their economies to fight inflation.  We want to review our “investable water universe” and single out some of our own single ‘best idea’ water investing strategies based on today’s valuations and trends of today that can have a significant upside ahead.

Some reports have been out about actual water scarcity here in America.  Securing potable water reserves in the future will be a challenge for many nations and this is where the term “The International Water Wars” comes from.  The water sector has given large rewards in some cases, and been very painful in other cases.

We are reviewing the following today: American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK); Watts Water Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: WTS); Instituform Technologies Inc.  (NYSE: INSU); Tetra Tech Inc. (NASDAQ: TTEK); and Calgon Carbon Corporation (NYSE: CCC).  On the international scene, there is Veolia Environmental S. A. (NYSE: VE) as well as Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (NYSE: SBS) as the international emerging wild cards.  To show just how risky this can be in foreign lands, there is Duoyuan Global Water Inc. (NYSE: DGW) that has been crushed with the batch of reverse-merger companies out of China and which has been halted for some time.  For more diversified picks via ETFs, there are also the PowerShares Water Resources (NYSE: PHO) and the PowerShares Global Water (NYSE: PIO) to consider.

Jon C. Ogg

Mechel (MTL) Russian coal miner may issue up to 138.8 million preferred shares. Dives to $3.77 from 52-week high of $58.66.

Arvinmeritor (ARM) JPMorgan cuts rating for auto suppliers. Falls to $4.54 from 52-week high of $18.11.

Tyson Foods (TSN) Stephens research analyst lowers earnings forecast. Drops to $8.14 from 52-week high of $19.50.

Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT) Plummets on safety concerns about one if its treatments and analyst downgrade. Sells off to $2.80 from 52-week high of $28.42.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Allscripts is undergoing a nearly completed corporate restructuringthat will leave it controlled by Misys Plc in a deal expectedto close by the end of this week.

This is a fresh addition into the index, so it isn’t one of the changeswhere fund managers who track index components just have to slide theshares on the abacus from one side to another.

Calgon Carbon closed down 6% today at $15.61, yet shares haverecovered about 3.3% in after-hours trading.  Its 52-week trading rangeis $11.64 to $23.03.

Jon C. Ogg
October 6, 2008

Mr. Schoonover joined the company in October 2004 as executive vice president and chief merchandising officer. He was elected president in February 2005, joined the board of directors in December 2005, was elected chief executive officer in March 2006 and was elected chairman of the board in June 2006.

Early in 2007, the company lost more confidence from Wall Street when the announcement came that its CFO was leaving the company.  It was also recently announced that David Mathews, EVP of merchandising, services and marketing was leaving his position to become president of Orchard Brands.  Losing your merchandising officer in Q4 ahead of the period after Christmas is not the greatest signal.  Schoonover’s turnaround team under him hasn’t stayed long enough to make a difference.

In a world where your technology customers might have no conscience, having too flexible of a return policy on high-end items isn’t a win.  Flat panel LCD or plasma TV seem to be priced lower and lower each month, and making it too easy for customers to return these hurt.  Firing the rest of your more tech-savvy salespeople and getting rid of your only advantage over rival Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) to go to a lower-paid hourly worker that doesn’t understand the technology as well was perhaps the dumbest attempt to save cash we’ve seen from any retailer all year.  Even though it has asked some workers to return, there is some pretty bad blood that management created.

If you will recall the company received a private equity bid at $17.00 per share in cash from Highfields Capital Management LP back on February 11, 2005.  Even if there wasn’t a private equity crunch and liquidity shortage right now to do deals, there is no way on earth that Highfields would come back with this price and they refused to chase the stock higher.  Circuit City shares actually rose after the buyout offer, although the cracks in the armor started appearing late last year and the cracks broke the armor apart and all that is left is an emperor who wears no clothes.  "Scoot-over" wasn’t the head of the entire show for the entire time but he’s been there long enough to do far more damage.  Mr. Schoonover probably wishes he had a fabled time machine to go back and fix this.

Even the potential InterTAN sale in Canada may not yield enough help here.  S&P has noted that this had one of the largest share price drops compared to prices paid for shares by the company itself during a share repurchase program.  The only thing that occasionally saves Circuit City stock down at such low share prices is the occasional takeover rumor.  We have reviewed this over and over for our Special Situations subscriber letter, but we have not been able to make ourselves see the light.  The earnings have been a disappointment and First Call shows a loss expected for Fiscal FEB-2008, so any would-be buyer today has to be a far better turnaround player rather than an enhancement team that can engineer a 12-month to 18-month flip.

A new CEO with a vision might actually be able to woo back some of the old employees.  Best Buy does roughly 3.5-times the revenues, yet its market cap of almost $22 Billion dwarfs that of Circuit City’s $1.25 Billion.  Analysts have all bailed on the stock, so even if it has recovered off recent lows you could expect a series of upgrades (or at least waves of more positive comments) from Wall Street if "Scoot-over" left or was forced to leave.

Based upon the low share price, the dismay for Schoonover, the gross mismatch in revenue multiple comparisons, the ability to spruce up the stores, the possibility of a new leader getting some workers back, and a dozen more factors…. 24/7 Wall St. feels that if Philip Schoonover would take our "Scoot-over" name to heart that Circuit City shares would potentially rise more than 10% IF he was simultaneously replaced with someone who could turn this around. 

Shares are up $2.00 from its recent lows, but it still looks dismal.  At $7.39, the 52-week trading range of $5.35 to $25.25 makes this party just less-dull.  Circuit City is regularly reviewed for our "10 Stocks Under $10" newsletter.

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Jon C. Ogg
December 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.