The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is down by about 3.6% at $53.03 on close to 4 million shares, against a 52-week range of $44.86 to $89.24.  The larger rival and former takeover target of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) is down by 3.8% at $42.12 versus a 52-week range of $38.42 to $63.97.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) is down by 3.7% at $161.00 and its 52-week trading range is $115.34 to $192.70.

Intrepid Potash Inc. (NYSE: IPI) is down the least with shares down “only 2.6%” on the day at $24.07 and against a 52-week range of $20.75 to $40.22.

Using an exchange traded fund can emphasize just how bad things are and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is down 1.2% at $49.39 versus a 52-week range of $39.86 to $57.93.

With so much corn used in food for humans, ethanol, and animal feedstocks, corn unfortunately is a key driver for the fertilizer and potash markets. 

Sadly, things brings up the question… Just how much do the potash and fertilizer markets depend upon the taxpayer-funded farm subsidies in America?  Probably more than any of us care to think.

JON C. OGG

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) named as value stock of the day by Zacks Investment Research.
Delphi Automotive (NYSE: DLPH) Initiated as Outperform at Credit Suisse; Started as Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Started as Overweight at J.P.Morgan; Started as Outperform at R.W. Baird.
Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) Maintained Neutral with $28.00 price target at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Estee Lauder Companies (NYSE: EL) raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day by Zacks Investment Research.
McKesson Corp. (NYSE: MCK) Reiterated Hold at Argus.
RadioShack Corporation (NYSE: RSH) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day by Zacks Investment Research.
Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) Reiterated Buy with $61 price target objective at Argus.
Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) target cut in Japan by Barclays.
Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC) added to US 1 focus list at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Maintained Buy with $18.00 price target objective at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Read Also: Credit Suisse’s Small Cap Sweet Spots With 50% Upside

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JON C. OGG

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up more than 25 points to 11,796.23 (0.22%), the NASDAQ fell more than 15 points (-0.60%) to 2,572.50, and the S&P 500 fell 0.04% or about 0.48 points to 1,215.65.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), which was raised to ‘buy’ at Sterne Agee. Other action included The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) started as ‘buy’ at Jefferies; Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) cut to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) started as ‘hold’ at Jefferies; and Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) started as ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Here are today’s big post-earnings news reactions with prices during the last half-hour of trading: Ann Inc. (NYSE: ANN) is down more than -6.6%, at $23.63; Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) is up more than 3%, at $7.88; H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) is down more than -3%, at $51.06; America’s Car Mart, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) is up more than 10%, at $35.84; Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is down more than -10.5%, at $112.67; and The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: BONT) is down more than -8%, at $2.84, after posting a new 52-week low of $2.70 earlier today.

Several other standouts from today are as follows…

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) is up about 2.9%, at $152.46. The company’s stock got pounded yesterday on news that the corn prices fell, but are recovering a bit today as investors remember that falling corn prices don’t necessarily mean that less corn will be planted and, thus, less fertilizer will be used.

The Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is up more than 4.6%, at $53.12. Another fertilizer maker that got slammed yesterday and is recovering somewhat today.

Fisher Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: FSCI) is up about 12.7%, at $29.20. The broadcast TV station operator has sold its Fisher Plaza building in Seattle for $160 million in cash to Hines Global REIT, Inc.

Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ: CLWR) is down nearly -21%, at $1.47. The company is reported to be considering skipping a $237 million debt payment due in two weeks, raising fears that the wireless broadband provider could end up in bankruptcy.

Meritor, Inc. (NYSE: MTOR) is down about -9.7%, at $5.12, after posting a new 52-week low of $5.11 earlier in the day. Shares lost -17% earlier this week when the company lowered its guidance for 2012 and the stock was downgraded today from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ at KeyBanc.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) is up more than ;6.8%, at $14.70. The chip maker reported so-so earnings yesterday, but strong positive statements by analysts at FBR and Citi have turned broken eggs into an omelette.

Stay tuned for Monday. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart is speaking in Brazil. Here’s a list of other noteworthy events (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank national activity index
• 10:00 a.m. – National Association of Retailers existing home sales report

Have a great weekend.

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Paul Ausick

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) Raised to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.
Athenahealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHN) Started as Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Chico’s FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut target to $80 from $135 at Credit Suisse.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) Cut to Hold at KeyBanc.
Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) Started as Hold at Citigroup.
NetApp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTAP) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) Started as Buy with $24 target at BofA/ML.
Sears Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.

Here is a detailed summary list of the top analyst calls from Wall Street last week.  Many were cautious.

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JON C. OGG

Mosaic gives the first indication of overall strength among the other fertilizer makers. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) is expected to post EPS of $0.93 for the quarter ending this month, more than double its EPS of $0.44 in the same period a year ago. Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is expected to show EPS of $1.85 in same period, up from EPS of $0.37 a year ago. Analysts expect CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) to post EPS of $4.56 in the September quarter, up from $1.10 a year ago. Only Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) is expected to post an EPS loss of -$0.27 for the current quarter, largely due to weakness in sales and margins of its Roundup herbicide.

The demand for fertilizer, particularly potash, reflects an effort among the world’s farmers to increase yields as crop prices remain relatively high. Expectations for crop plantings in the 2012-2013 crop year indicate that global wheat acreage could rise to about 563 million acres in 2012, up 4% from last year, while corn plantings could rise to 94.3 million acres world-wide.

But even if acres planted don’t increase much, farmers everywhere are looking to increase yields. China, for example, plants nearly as many acres of corn as the US, but yields are just half as large. If the country’s farmers could increase their yields, the amount of corn China must import to feed its people would fall.  The country has also restricted consumption of corn for industrial purposes like sweeteners and ethanol.

In what could be a boost to seed makers like Monsanto and Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT), China is also considering allowing the import of genetically modified seed even as it tests a domestically developed strain of corn seed. The country does allow import of genetically modified strains of corn for consumption.

Farmers chasing yield improvements are expected to be the driving force behind fertilizer makers’ growth. Mosaic received an average of $446/metric ton of potash in its first quarter, up from $331 in the same period a year ago. The company guided potash prices for the second quarter at $440-$465/metric ton. For its phosphate products, Mosaic received $576/metric ton in the first quarter, compared with $431 in the same period a year ago. Phosphate prices for the second quarter were guided at $600-$625/metric ton.

While farm prices remain high, fertilizer makers can raise prices and still maintain volume. Mosaic guided shipment levels for potash at 1.7-2.1 million metric tons for the second quarter, compared with shipments of 1.8 million metric tons in the first quarter. Shipments of phosphates are expected to rise to 3.1-3.5 million metric tons in the second quarter, compared with 3.2 million metric tons shipped in the first quarter.

The fertilizer business is strong now and looks to remain that way for the coming year.  Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is also up by more than 1% at $45.01 and its 52-week range is $43.00 to $57.93.

Paul Ausick

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
BE Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: BEAV) Started as Buy at BofA/ML.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) called Value Stock of the Day at Zacks.
Dunkin’ Brands Group (NASDAQ: DNKN) Started as Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; Started as Market Perform at Wells Fargo; Started as Overweight at JPMorgan; Started as Neutral at BofA/ML.
Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) Raised to Hold at Citigroup.
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) Cut to Sell at Argus.
Merge Healthcare (NASDAQ: MRGE) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) Raised to Buy at Argus.
PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) maintained Buy but removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Teavana Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TEA) started as Outperform at William Blair; Started as Neutral at BofA/ML.
United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. C (NYSE: WAIR) Started as Buy at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

CNH Global N.V. (NYSE: CNH) reported quarterly earnings a couple of weeks ago and easily topped expectations. AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) also posted sterling results for its second quarter. Caterpillar Corp. (NYSE: CAT) reported very solid numbers in July — and the stock fell. That’s happening to Deere today as well. All four are down year-to-date.

Because earnings and revenues have been robust on the strength of demand for agricultural and other heavy equipment, it could be that investors have set expectations too high. Nothing less than spectacular will do.

Or it could be that the stocks are fairly valued now and were overbought before. Caterpillar’s forward multiple is 9.63, CNH’s is 8.11, AGCO’s is 8.66, and, based on today’s earnings report, Deere’s is slightly more than 11. Those numbers seem a little low.

What could be going on is that despite the these companies’ own forecasts for continue sales and profits, investors are more concerned with the cost side of things. Deere’s operating margin in its agricultural machinery division fell from nearly 39% in the same period last year to 33% this quarter. Rising raw materials costs are a legitimate concern, especially if other factors could begin to influence sales.

For example, Deere has projected lower sales in South America this year, an area where the company has been very strong. The company forecasts North American sales up 5%-10% on the year, but a report from an agricultural trade group notes that sales of tractors in the US are down slightly year-to-date, and were down -7.4% in the month of July.

Predictions for lower corn yields and a lower-than-expected harvest could also be adding pressure to farm equipment purchases. Even the increased availability of wheat on international markets due to Russia’s decision to resume exports could be stifling sales somewhat.

Fertilizer stocks are performing somewhat better overall due primarily to the fact that adding more fertilizer to increase yields is cheaper and more effective than buying new equipment. Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) have gained about 25% year-to-date, and shares in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan are up about 8% in the same period.

Deere’s shares are down about -1% just after noon today, at $74.44, in a 52-week range of $60.45-$99.80. Volume has already surpassed the daily average. Caterpillar stock is down about -1.35%, at $88.14, in a 52-week range of $63.34-$116.55. Shares of CNH are down more than -2%, at $30.58, in a 52-week range of $27.01-$54.45, and AGCO shares are down more than -3%, at $39.23, in a 52-week range of $32.36-$59.81.

Shares of PowerShares Agriculture Fund are up about 0.7%, at $33.09, in a 52-week range of $25.63-$35.58. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is up about 0.25%, at $50.15, in a 52-week range of $42.35-$57.93.

Paul Ausick

Just as we tried to look at the effects of a crude price of $120/barrel a couple of weeks ago, today is a good day to look at what effect a crude price of $80/barrel might have. First of all, it would be very good news for consumers who might anticipate gasoline prices around $3.25/gallon, at least briefly. And US drivers need some cheering up.

An $80/barrel price would definitely be bad for big oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE: COP). Refiners, however could do better, especially those able to get WTI crude. US refiners situated along the Gulf Coast are essentially tied to Brent prices, while refiners further from the coast can get their hands on the cheaper WTI. That allows these companies to take advantage of the crude differential to achieve more margin.

Of the refiners, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is most closely tied to the Gulf Coast and higher priced crude. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) all have more plants outside the Gulf Coast region, and thus, a better chance to take advantage of wider refining margins.

Another industry that should do well with $80/barrel crude is the airlines business. United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL), AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), among others, have been slammed by high fuel costs. Provided anyone can still afford to fly, airline fuel costs will fall and fares may follow.

Other transportation industries that use large amounts of fuel are shipping and railroads. Shipping companies like DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), and Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (NYSE: GNK) could catch a break from lower fuel costs. Unfortunately, over-capacity in dry bulk carriers could hold down any gain that might come from cheaper fuel.

Railroads might fare better. Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) have been moving a lot more goods these days, and lower diesel fuel costs will make these stocks among the best able to take advantage of cheaper fuel. Loads are up, rates are up, and fuel is getting cheaper. That’s a potent combination.

Other transportation winners could include FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS), both of which are shipping more these days and have taken a hit as fuel prices were rising.

Finally, agriculture-related firms like fertilizer companies and machinery makers could get a boost from lower fuel costs. Ag companies like Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) all benefit from lower fuel costs in one way or another.

Of all the companies we’ve looked at here, only FedEx, UPS, and CF Industries is showing a gain today. CF Industries raised its annual dividend today from $0.40/share to $1.60/share, on top of a blowout quarterly earnings report. CF Industries’ shares are up more than 70% in the past 12 months, and the company expects the rest of 2011 to be just as strong as the first half.

Paul Ausick

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) reported a key beat on its earnings expectations after the close as its profits literally tripled.  The company also said it is not selling an operation to Mosaic and it is multiplying its dividend rate.  CF shares closed down over 8% today and the stock is up about 6% at $150.00 in the after-hours session.

Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) is not your normal earnings gainer.  Shares were down more than 9% today but the engineering and design firm exceeded earnings estimates with a 5% profit gain as backlog rose over 30%.  Shares are indicated up 3.3% at $56.42 in the after-hours session against a 52-week trading range of $44.04 to $75.76.

Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: KOG) reported in-line earnings and it beat on revenues with $0.04 EPS and revenues rose some 260% to $22.1 million (above $700K higher than estimates).  Shares are trading up 5.7% at $6.09 in the after-hours session against a 52-week range of $2.43 to $7.70.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) fell by over 9.5% today with the market, but the company now said it has over 120 million members as it posted not just a beat on earnings but positive earnings as sales more than doubled to $121 million.  Shares are now indicated up over 4% at $99.00 in the after-hours.

priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) tanked by more than 7% ahead of earnings, but the online travel site is gaining back all of its losses and then some.  The company beat earnings as revenues rose 44%.  Bookings rose and even a trend of deceleration on growth did not upset William Shatner and friends.  Shares are up over 9.5% at $531.25 in the after-hours.

Spreadtrum Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: SPRD) was hit by more than 7% but the results have it way up.  Earnings were $0.10 above estimates at $0.65 EPS and revenue was up over 15% at $160.2 million vs. $155+ million expected.  It also raised guidance to $172 to $178 million versus almost $166 million expected.  Shares are up over 13% at $15.00 in the after-hours session.

Web.com Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WWWW) had a solid day as one of the few great winners after it beat earnings and said it is making an accretive buyout of Network Solutions for some $560 million.  Shares were up 19% today to $10.37 and the stock is up 7% at $11.13 in the after-hours session because the CEO is supposed to speak to Jim Cramer.  Where this really ends up tonight is anyone’s guess, but this one is a winner from that deal.

It is possible that some of the gains will dry up if the panic continues.  After all, the NASDAQ: was down over 100 points and the DJIA fell more than 500 points today.  It happens, and we have the key unemployment non-farm payrolls data that could drive the markets even that much more in the morning.

JON C. OGG

Overall weakness in US economic growth, combined with still shaky European sovereign debt and some slowing in the emerging markets have dampened enthusiasm for equities. The Dow appears headed for a ninth straight day of losses and the S&P 500 has posted a new low for the year. There have to be some winners among equities, don’t there?

One place to look is fertilizer companies. CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) has been rising steadily for the past 52-weeks and is now about 90% higher than its 52-week low. The company’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 17.37, and its forward P/E is 9.98. The price/book ratio is at 2.5. CF Industries reports earnings tomorrow and analysts are expecting EPS of $5.87 on revenues of $1.76 billion. Three months ago EPS estimates were $5.39, so the bar has been set higher rather than lower.

CF Industries is just the top dog among several fertilizer companies that have experienced good growth in the past 12 months. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) has posted share price growth of nearly 60%, Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is up more than 40%, Syngenta AG (NYSE: SYT) and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) are both up more than 35%, and Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON) has gained about 20%.

Global demand for food is high and rising, and increasing yields on available farmland is the quickest and cheapest way to get more food. These growth rates are, perhaps, too strong to be sustainable, but barring some enormous foul-up on the part of fertilizer makers, the upward trend in share prices is likely to continue.

For ETF investors, the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) has posted a share price gain of around 28% this year, leading the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) by a couple of percentage points of gain. DBA is down about -1% today, at $32.47, within a 52-week range of $25.45-$35.58. MOO is also down about -1%, at $52.07, in a 52-week range of $41.03-$57.93.

Paul Ausick