Posts for Ticker ‘CHA’

Subscriber Growth For Major Chinese Mobile Companies (CHL, CHU, CHA)

Today China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) posted big numbers in its subscriber growth, claiming 500 million mobile users.  By this metric, China Mobile can claim the title of the worlds biggest mobile company.  However, looking at subscribers in terms of percentage growth over the past year tells a different story.  The first chart below compares China Mobile, China Unicom (NYSE: CHU), and China Telecom (NYSE: CHA) on the basis of  monthly subscriber growth off the September 2008 base.  The second shows the monthly change in each stock price off their respective September 2008 price. (It should it be noted that there is a delay in the release of the monthly subscriber number for each company.)

Chart 1: Monthly Subscriber Growth, September 08-September 09

iChat Image(658297160)

Chart 2: Monthly change in stock price, September 08-September 09

iChat Image(2586538672)

While some may appreciate steady companies, its hard not to like the exponential growth in China Telecom’s mobile subscriber base.

Garrett W. McIntyre


Posted on: October 20, 2009 – 1:30 pm in Charts, China, Telecom, , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AZN, BDN, CHA, HURN, PRU, PETM, RF, SOL, RDS-B, TWB, UA)

These are Thursday’s top ten analyst research summary upgrades, downgrades, and initiations from Wall Street brokerage firms:

AstraZeneca (AZN) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.
Brandywine Realty (BDN) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
China Telecom (CHA) Raised to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
Huron Consulting (HURN) Raised to Neutral from Underperform at at Baird.
Prudential (PRU) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
PetSmart (PETM) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Regions Financial (RF) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
ReneSola (SOL) Raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Tween Brands (TWB) Raised to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
Under Armour (UA) Cut to Underweight from Hold at KeyBanc.

JON C. OGG
August 20, 2009

Posted on: August 20, 2009 – 7:48 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Pre-Market Analyst Downgrades (AXP, ATML, BX, CHA, CYPB, HPQ, SLAB, UBS, WSM)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst downgrades or cautious calls we have seen from Wall Street firms early this Wednesday morning:

American Express (AXP) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
Atmel (ATML) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
Blackstone (BX) Cut to Market Perform at KBW.
China Telecom (CHA) Cut to Sell at Citigroup.
Cypress Bioscience (CYPB) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Started as Outperform at RBC.
Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) Cut to Market Perform at FBR.
UBS (UBS) Cut to Underperform at KBW.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 25, 2009 – 6:59 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades (AA, WTR, BEC, CWT, CHRT, CHA, GAS, NOK, PNY, WW)

money-stack-image44These are the top upgrades and positive research calls we have seen from Wall Street analysts so far early this Thursday morning:

Alcoa (AA) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Aqua America (WTR) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Beckman Coulter (BEC) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
California Water (CWT) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT) Raised to Neutral at HSBC.
China Telecom (CHA) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Nicor (GAS) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Nokia (NOK) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) Raised to Outperform at Baird.
Watson Wyatt Worldwide (WW) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.

-JON C. OGG

Posted on: March 19, 2009 – 6:23 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Early Bird Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (CHA, CHH, CMCSA, GOOG, ID, PAS, ACF, ERIC, NCC, NWS, NOK, PCTI, RAH, SHW)

These are some of the top pre-market analyst upgrades and downgrades we are seeing from Wall Street firms this Tuesday morning with more than two hours to the open:

  • China Telecom (CHA) Raised to Buy at UBS.
  • Choice Hotels (CHH) Raised To Neutral From Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Comcast (CMCSA) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Google (GOOG) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • L-1 Identity Solutions (ID) Raised to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
  • PepsiAmericas (PAS) Raised to Buy at UBS.

Read More »

Posted on: October 28, 2008 – 6:37 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China’s Complicated Telecom Mergers (CHU, CN, CHA, QCOM)

There is a complicated merger in the Chinese telecom market, which is part of the government mandate to consolidate a fragmented telecom industry in China.

China Unicom Ltd. (NYSE: CHU) has formalized a deal that came out over the weekend to acquire China Netcom Group Corp. (NYSE: CN) in a deal that puts the debt and equity value around $56.3 Billion.  In a separate deal, China Telecom Corp. (NYSE: CHA) will acquire China Unicom parent’s CDMA network for roughly $15.86 Billion in cash.  China Netcom will be delisted and will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Unicom.

Recently, China’s government had mandated a restructuring of the country’s six major telecom operators where these will become three entities.  Interestingly enough, China believes that the more consolidated players will create more competition and prevent any single carrier from a winner take all position. 

China Unicom is the major CDMA service provider in China, and it has some 42 million subscribers as of the end of 2007.  Because these stocks were all tied up in a coming deal, some of the shares had been halted on local exchanges while these terms were being worked out.

While it may be hard to interpret or play play the consolidation waves in China’s telecom mergers, one winner of this merger will likely be Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) because it wins on every new CDMA user it gets.  This of course assumes that the other deals don’t take away from the company’s CDMA and WCDMA user base, and that is not necessarily an assured outcome.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear about other mergers, IPO’s, secondary financings, restructurings, and other special situations.

Jon C. Ogg
June 2, 2008

Posted on: June 2, 2008 – 7:12 am in China, Mergers and Buy Outs, Telecom, , , ,

Telecom Stocks Hit Highs Across The Globe

Telecom was supposed to be a business that time had passed by. VoIP, cable, and wireless internet technology like city-wide WiFi was going to bury the phone companies.

But, last week AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), China Telecom (CHA), China Mobile (CHL), Vodafone (VOD), Deutsch Telekcom (DT), and France Telecom (FTE) all high 52-week highs.

It turns out that talking on a phone may still drive a lot of revenue. For several years, the assumption was that VoIP would take away tens of millions of subscribers. But, the revenue for Skype still appears to be modest and cable companies are taking customers, but telecom companies are replacing those with wireless subscribers. Cable can’t offer that. While landline customers may be falling, cellular business is moving up sharply.

It also appears that using phone lines for broadband may be a better business than Wall St. realized. DSL still has as many customers as cable broadband in many countries, and there is belief that fiber connections to the home will win more subscribers. That may explain why Comcast (CMCSA) is at a 52-week low.

The telecommunications business was supposed to be in trouble, but, that’s why they call a guess a forecast.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 30, 2007 – 12:42 pm in Telecom, , , , , , , ,

Why A Global Market Collapse Will Begin In China

Most experts believe that, when a sharp drop in the global stock markets comes, and it will one day, the fall will begin in the US. It could be triggered by a slowing economy, falling corporate earnings, or trouble in the housing industry.

But, the S&P is up less than 15% this year, and there are not many stocks making 52-week highs. The market may be OK, but it appears to have at least a modest amount of risk built in.

Looking across the Pacific to China, the story is completely different. The Shanghai Composite made another new high overnight. It has more than doubled since the beginning of January.

Perhaps more impressive is the number of Chinese stocks hitting 52-week highs, even when they trade on US exchanges. Yesterday, China BAK Battery (CBAK) rose 20% in Nasdaq trading to make a new high. China Fire & Security (CFSG) made a new high on Nasdaq as well. So did China Fin Online (JRJC).

On the NYSE, nine of the 25 new highs reached yesterday where Chinese companies. These include huge operations China Telecom (CHA), China Unicom (CHU), China Mobile (CHL), PetroChina (PTR), China Petroleum (SNP), and China Life (LFC). These are not small, speculative stocks. Some of the shares in these large companies have almost tripled from their lows.

What is impressive is that the move up is not in one sector. It is spread across telecom, energy, finance, and industrial stocks.

China’s GDP is growing at 10% or so. A significant run-up in markets there is too be expected. But, there is plentiful evidence that the share price of many companies is out-stripping near-term potential.

A fall in global markets begins in China.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 28, 2007 – 5:16 am in China, , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst Calls (July 10, 2007)

ACAD started as Outperform at FBR.
ALC started as Outperform at RBC.
ARUN started as Buy at Jefferies.
ATVI started as Buy at First Albany.
AZ raised to Buy at UBS.
CHA cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
DRIV raised to Outperform at RBC.
DTV raised to Buy at Citigroup.
EMC started as Mkt Perform at BMO Capital Markets.
F raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
FOLD started as Overweight at JPMorgan.
FORM cut to Underweight at JPMorgan.
FVE started as Sector Perform at RBC.
GGG cut to Sector Perform at CIBC.
GM raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
GME started as Buy at First Albany.
GRMN started as Neutral at B of A.
LMIA cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
MU raised to Buy at Jefferies.
PLCM started as Buy at Jefferies.
PNM raised to Hold at Citigroup.
QLGC started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
RACK cut to Sector Perform at RBC.
SMG raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
UNCA cut to Hold at Jefferies.
VOLV raised to Overweight at HSBC.

Jon C. Ogg
July 10, 2007

Posted on: July 10, 2007 – 6:41 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Will Berkshire Hathaway Lower Its Buyout Standards?

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) may be setting its sights lower as far as the size of a merger it would pursue.  Reuters has reported that Warren Buffett gave an interview to a Swiss newspaper called Finanz and Wirtschaft saying the company was primarily interested in large takeovers.  Buffett said they would happily buy things in the $5 billion to $20 billion range, although potential targets are rare.  Buffett did note that they were confident they would be able to conclude several larger transactions soon in the interview.

We just ran several buyout targets that we widened out to fit the bill for a "whale" of an acquisition on Monday.

If Buffett looks at smaller companies then he will have a lot more to choose from.  It is somewhat surprising that Buffett has not looked at the retail and commercial banking sector since there are so many with healthy balance sheets and surpressed prices due to a temporarily inverted yield curve.  He has also failed on his promise to go big into power generation operations, and there are perhaps 5 or 6 names he could easily approach in that sector.

The truth is that if Buffett stoops down into the $5 billion to $20 billion range then there will be many opportunities for him.  Perhaps the largest reason for looking at larger deals is that he is probably concerned that he will be one-upped in a higher bid for any deal he considers in that $5 billion to $20 billion range.

Regardless of his comments, he needs to remove T-Bills as his single largest public investment at the current time.  Being too picky and just sitting on the sidelines for too long can come across as indecisive, even if you have made yourself into one of the world’s richest men. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 9, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 9, 2007 – 7:22 am in Conglomerates, Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Berkshire Hathaway’s “Whale” Acquisition; Who Could It Be?

Stocks to Watch: BRK/A, MRO, TRV, WM, ALL, LEH, CHA, REP, OXY, DOW, VLO, E, MET, BF, DB, SNP

Warren Buffett was noted this weekend as saying he is tempted to find a "Whale" of an acquisition rather than just trying to catch a big fish.  Everyone knows that Buffett has called technology a widget that he wouldn’t buy, so what could this mean?

We screened stocks with some valuations that would entail Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) either selling many stakes it holds in public companies or that would require it to raise capital from the markets.  In order to do this we looked at the balance sheet and decided that the company cut off mark would be somewhere in the vicinity of $35 Billion for the company to still have ample cash to operate without stretching or minimizing activities.  We decided to go up to $80 Billion as the ceiling, thinking that Buffett could probably sell the idea and considering that this amount ‘could’ still occur if he stretched it big time.  He has already said that Geography is not a barrier any longer. 
The companies that trade at $35 billion to $80 billion have price to book value ratios of Less than 2.5, Price-to Earnings ratios of 15.0 or less, forward Price to earnings ratios of under 14.0.  There are many other measures such as discounted cash flows and return on equity that we could have run, but we thought we’d see what comes up. 

Companies that did not have ADR’s were screened out, even though this may not be fair.  He has mostly stayed away from energy companies, but his PetroChina (PTR) stake made us leave this in.  He has stayed away from banks, but since he has been aggressive into insurance we decided to keep this in there.

Here are some of the companies that showed up in the screen:
Marathon Oil (MRO), Travelers (TRV), Washington Mutual (WM), Allstate (ALL), Lehman (LEH), China Telecom (CHA), Repsol (REP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Dow Chemical (DOW), Valero (VLO), E N I (E), MetLife (MET), BASF (BF), Deutsche Bank (DB), China Petrolem (SNP). 

Here is the problem in evaluating the companies above: If you don’t think Buffett would take on the huge additional risks in insurance or if you think he’d shy away from a bank or brokerage firm, then Buffett would need to go into the chemical companies or into energy and refining.  Even if you scale down the size to say $20 Billion, you have the same type of companies in the mix, except you bring in some metal and commodity names.

What is the biggest problem in having roughly $40 Billion in cash and equivalents?  It’s obviously trying to put the money to work.  Buffett is not under the same pressure as private equity to put his cash to work.  His track record speaks for itself, but you have to wonder about the company down the road and what its strategy will be.  How far will they diversify?  Will they diversify?  When your holding period you evaluate a business on is "Forever" it makes for some interesting problems to have.

Jon C. Ogg
May 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in any of the companies he covers.

Posted on: May 7, 2007 – 1:48 pm in Conglomerates, Financial Stocks, Mergers and Buy Outs, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,