24/7 Wall St. has focused on the ratings with a “positive” outlook from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and/or Fitch with a bias towards nations that investors can easily invest in via ADR shares, closed-end funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The featured nations that may be upgraded in 2012 are Brazil, Chile, China (with Hong Kong), Indonesia, Peru, Russia, South Korea, and Turkey.

Read: Nations Set For Credit Ratings Beyond Upgrades, Beyond The Euro Crisis

There is another slew of countries for which S&P has a “positive” outlook stance: Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Latvia, Panama, and Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, these nations are almost impossible for Americans to invest in due to their size, the small number of public companies, and a lack of ETFs or mutual funds covering them.

The 24/7 Wall St. list is presented alphabetically and features relevant ratings. Also included are economic details and important developments to consider. Lastly, we have provided a list of the key closed-end funds, ETFs, and ADRs specific to each nation. Population estimates and purchasing power parity GDP for 2010 were taken from the CIA World Factbook.

All you have to do is look at the exchange-traded funds and closed-end which track the emerging markets and the BRIC nations (and those surrounding the BRICs).  Ugly is not quite the right description and we will explain more after showing just how bad the carnage is.  Greece is no emerging market, but it is on the path to default faster than emerging markets used to default.

The ETFs for the broad emerging markets is not a good signal for their equity markets.  The revolutions of early 2011 did not help, nor did the food inflation, but the economic slowing is taking a hit here left and right.  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSE: EEM) closed down 2.1% at $34.36 and the 52-week trading range is $34.29 to $50.43 (52-week low was Monday).  Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (NYSE: VWO) closed down 1.75% at $35.20 and the 52-week trading range is $35.13 to $50.92 (52-week low was Monday). 

We have included the most active ETF chart on each from Stockcharts.com at the end of this report.  The data on the BRICs is almost shocking…

BRAZIL

Brazil may have energy independence and the Olympics headed its way, but the implosion there has been massive.  The BOVESPA lost 2.9% of its value on Monday and let’s just say that its high-flyers are now grounded due to more than just weather.  It seems that minerals and forestry are not going to generate cash, just like it missed out on royalties from the term “Brazilian” in personal grooming. 

iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ) closed down 2.1% at $50.89 and the 52-week trading range is $50.71 to $81.77 (52-week low was Monday).  Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: BRF) closed down 3.15% at $37.96 and the 52-week trading range is $37.73 to $63.78 (52-week low was Monday).  iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index (NYSE: ECH) closed down 3.8% at $51.16 and the 52-week trading range is $50.92 to $80.38 (52-week low was Monday).  Aberdeen Chile Fund, Inc. (NYSE: CH) closed down 4.9%  at $13.45 and the 52-week trading range is $13.37 to $26.56 (52-week low was Monday).

If you invest in companies with high exposure to China, this might matter.  If you invest in key ETFs like iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI), SPDR S&P China (NYSE: GXC), and Guggenheim China Real Estate (NYSE: TAO) or if you prefer closed-end funds like The China Fund, Inc. (NYSE: CHN) or Templeton Dragon Fund Inc. (NYSE: TDF) then this really matters.  Keep in mind that Jim Chanos has been bearish on China for some time.  The problem is that with things slowing elsewhere the issues at hand could be coming to a real head.  These funds and ETFs are generally down about 25% from year highs and most are closer to their lows of the last year.

Chanos recently spoke to Carol Massar on Bloomberg TV in this video.

On the debt issue… “The Chinese government’s balance sheet directly does not have a lot of debt. The state-owned enterprises of the local governments and all the other ancillary borrowing vehicles have lots of debt and its growing at a very fast rate. The assumption is that the state stands behind all this debt. We see that the debt in China, implicitly backed by the Chinese government, probably has gone from about 100% of GDP to about 200% of GDP recently. Those are numbers that are staggering. Those are European kind of numbers if not worse.”

The property bubble… “I think that will be the surprise going into this year, and into 2012 – that it is not so strong. The property market is hitting the wall right now and things are decelerating. The CEO of Komatsu said last week that he is having trouble getting paid for his excavator sales in China. Developers are being squeezed. They’re turning to the black market for lending, this shadow banking system that is growing by leaps and bounds like everything in China.

“Regulators over there are really trying to get their hands around the problem. In the meantime, local governments have every incentive to just keep the game going. So they will continue with these projects, continuing to borrow as the central government tries to rein it in.”

What Chanos is shorting… “We are short Chinese banks, the property developers, commodity companies that sell into China, anything related to property there is still a short.”  Oddly enough, Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) might be an indirect winner as Chanos is long the Macau casinos which are growing at a faster rate even than the property developers.

Chanos also outlined an IMF downgrade to China’s growth he outlined tha the write-offs make China’s 9% growth really about zero.

Chanos has been shorting China for some time and a recent CNBC video shows more on the matter.  Oddly enough, in August the Asian sector funds netted in a half-billion dollars in inflows.

JON C. OGG

We searched for funds and ETF’s in emerging markets from Eastern Europeto Russia to Asia to Africa to South America… and the actualsell-off from highs is starting to look amazing.  We haven’t even had aglobal economic crisis that hit Asia like we did in 1998.Interestingly enough, much of this may be solely on the global growthslowdown and a flight to quality.

What else is interesting is that chasing inflows and outflows for investorsin US markets versus emerging markets in real invested dollar terms isstaggering.  To move the market value of the DJIA up 1% in realsupply/demand driven stock markets is massive.  The value of the DJIA’s30 components alone is worth more than $3.5 Trillion on last look.  Itdoesn’t really take $35 Billion worth of net excess and aggregate stockbuying to drive the entire DJIA up 1%, but so the theory goes.  But a $35 Billionrotation into even a basket of emerging markets would create one hellof a market day around the globe.

Below are some of the closed-end mutual funds and ETF’s from emergingmarkets that hit 52-week lows on Friday and we have even shown how farsome of these are off from their stated 52-week highs:

• The China Fund, Inc. (NYSE: CHN) at $28.35, down 47% from $52.97 high
• iShares Malaysia (NYSE: EWM) at $9.32, down 33% from $14.05 high
• Latin American Discovery Fund Inc. (NYSE: LDF) at $22.10, down 39% from $36.23 high
• Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Fund Inc. (NYSE: MSF) at $16.16, down 54% from $35.45 high
• RMR ASIA REAL ESTATE (AMEX: RAF) at $10.97, down 35% from $17.08 high
• Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate (NYSE: TAO) at $15.99, down 42% from $27.57 high

Here are a few others with recognized names which have hit 52-week lowsin recent days or are at least very close to 52-week lows, and here we haveshown Friday’s closing price and how far down these are from stated52-week highs as well:

• Templeton Russia and East European Fund Inc. (NYSE: TRF) at $45.62, down 41% from $78.00 high
• Indonesia Fund Inc. (AMEX: IF) at $8.69, down about 38% from $14.00 high
• iShares MSCI South Africa Index (NYSE: EZA) at $53.47, down 30% from $76.90 high
• The Chile Fund Inc. (AMEX: CH) at $16.10, down about 33% from $24.00 high

If we were allowed to go on and on, this list of near-low emerging market ETF’s would go on and on as well.

Markets, particularly emerging markets, never die off permanently andindefinitely.  Many investors use these funds for their IRA’s and forlong-term speculation.  While troubles are abound in Afghanistan, Iraq,Georgia, Sudan, and other great destinations, remember the longsteadfast advice attributed to Templeton’s Mark Mobius: "Invest whenthere is blood in the streets." 

As far as where these trade in the days and weeks ahead is anyone’s guess.  Most investors start falling in love with emerging markets after they have made massive runs and when they look stable.  It takes those with guts and foresight to begin investing in these after they have seen major sell-offs.  Closed-end funds can also trade at huge premiums or discounts their net asset values, and we won’t dare make the analogy these markets are cheap just because they have sold off so much.  But all of these instruments do track markets rather than just a couple stocks and as we noted, those markets never stay down or out of favor forever.

We have started covering some of these issues for long-term investors and here are some of the recent articles:
Africa: The Final Emerging Market Frontier
On the Russian military action against Georgia
China, heading to recession?

Jon C. Ogg
August 18, 2008

ETF WINNERS JUNE 4, 2007:
Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH)                                             $174.35; +2.7%
PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB)                            $27.66; +2.6%
iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB)       $37.29; +1.6%
Ultra Russell2000 Value ProShares (UVT)                   $72.18; +1.28%
SPDR S&P World ex-US (GWL)                                       $33.65; +1.25%
Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE)                                $62.52; +1.23%

ETF LOSERS JUNE 4, 2007:
UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG)                         $48.90; -2.4%
iShares MSCI South Africa Index    (EZA)                       $128.25; -1.6%
HealthShares Cancer (HHK)                                            $29.25; -1.05%
First Trust AMEX Biotech Index (FBT)                              $25.52; -1.05%
iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP)                                    $60.54; -1.03%
iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)                                     $60.65; -0.90%

DJIA                        13,676.32; +8.21 (0.06%)
NASDAQ                2,618.29; +4.37 (0.17%)
S&P500                 1,539.18; +2.84 (0.18%)
10YR Bond            4.9290%; -0.0270%
NYSE Volume       2,713,846,000
NASDAQ Volume  1,947,730,000   

If you can believe it, the PowerShares Golden Dragon-China (PGJ) only fell 0.04% on 278,000 shares, not bad for a day that Shanghai fell 8%.  Even the closed-end fund The China Fund Inc. (CHN) only saw a 0.33% drop.

Please note that is you see other winning or losing ETF’s that are the same category as one of the winners and losers that is not in here, it is because we try to default to the most liquid ETF that is means to track any given sector.

Today the main winners were led by oil & gas trackers in various segments in the oil patch: United States Natural Gas (UNG) 3.7%, iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Ex Index (IEO) 2.5%, Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) 2.45%, iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index  (IEZ) 2.35%, SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod (XOP) 2.2%, Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) 1.5%.

After seeing how many oil and energy ETF’s are on the market we would formally like to ask ETF managers not to open up any more oil and gas variations of ETF’s.

Jon C. Ogg
June 4, 2007