Note: The Flame Index scans thousands of news sites 24 hours per day and ranks companies getting the most negative press right now. The Flame Index Media Analysis Algorithm crunches the data for an up-to-the-minute ranking of the hardest-hit companies.

The Flame Index started as a research tool in 2008 at the NY Innovation Design Lab (nyidlab). It was used as a general metric to evaluate companies and their risk in the media. Publicly traded Fortune 500 companies are used as a measure to calculate an overall market of negative news and the companies are ranked within that market.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Data and ranking provided by the Flame Index.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) earnings were better than expected. (Reuters)

The AIA IPO moved up 17% on the Hong Kong exchange. (Reuters)

GM will repay taxpayers $2 billion from its IPO. (Reuters)

The dollar hit lows against the yen not seen since 1995  (Reuters)

Sales of cellphones slowed last quarter but smartphone sales surged.  (Reuters)

Facebook and Twitter’s managements said that social media is the “new normal.” (Reuters)

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Samsung and Toshiba will work to cut the size of chips by half (Nikkei)

Potash (NYSE: POT) earnings rose but its stock dropped on concerns that a bid from BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) may disappear. (Reuters)

Sanofi-Aventis said it will not raise its bid for Genzyme. (NASDAQ: GENZ)

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) found problems the could have caused the BP (NYSE: BP) disaster before the event occurred. (WSJ)

Samsung’s profits rose as did those of Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC) and Sony. (NYSE: SNE) (WSJ)

The FDA rejected the Vivus obesity drug. (WSJ)

The G-20 will push the IMF to give loans to troubled regions. (WSJ)

China has begun to push into the global power generation business with a large shipment to India. (WSJ)

AOL (NYSE: AOL) will launch a new home page design. (WSJ)

Nintendo will launch a social game version of its DS. (WSJ)

Sharp and LG say there is glut of TVs. (WSJ)

Blackstone (NYSE: BX) says the deal business has overheated. (WSJ)

The IMF said the value of the dollar was slightly too strong. (WSJ)

Van Eck launched a rare earth ETF.

Cheap debt has helped a private equity revival (NYT)

Solar power projects may falter without government support. (NYT)

Merkel won her bid to get the EU to put into place permanent measures for a future debt crisis in the region. (Bloomberg)

Focus Radar says home sales have slowed in the hardest hit states with real estate problems due to foreclosure problems. (Bloomberg)

Douglas A. McIntyre

Some of these changes will only have minor buy and sell effects from S&P index mutual funds and ETFs, but some will see significant changes.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (NYSE: MJN) will replace MBIA Corp. (NYSE: MBI) in the S&P 500, after Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) is splitting off its approximately 83% holdings in Mead Johnson Nutrition. MBIA currently ranks 500th in the index and is no longer representative of the S&P 500 index market cap space.  That is called the MBIA boot.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) will replace Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) in the S&P 500.  Ciena will move down an index rather than be booted entirely as it will replace Blyth Inc. (NYSE: BTH) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Blyth will replace C&D Technologies Inc. (NYSE: CHP) in the S&P SmallCap 600. C&D was the smallest component of the S&P SmallCap 600, and is now too small for even the small-cap index.

S&P MidCap 400 components Ross Stores Inc. (NASD:ROST), Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) and SAIC Inc. (NYSE:SAI) will move up an index to replace Dynegy Inc. (NYSE:DYN), KB Home Inc. (NYSE:KBH) and Convergys Corp. (NYSE:CVG) in the S&P 500 Index.   Dynegy, KB Home and Convergys will move down an index and will replace Ross Stores, Cliffs Natural Resources and SAIC in the S&P MidCap 400 index.

S&P SmallCap 600 components Senior Housing Properties Trust (NYSE: SNH), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAD: GMCR) and Atwood Oceanics Inc. (NYSE: ATW) will move up an index to replace Dycom Industries Inc.(NYSE: DY), Kelly Services Inc. (NASDAQ: KELYA) and Callaway Golf Co. (NYSE: ELY) in the S&P MidCap 400.  Dycom, Kelly Services and Callaway Golf will move down an index rather than being eliminated and will replace Senior Housing Properties, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Atwood Oceanics in the S&P SmallCap 600 index.

As most of these are index moves, they tend to have less of a formal impact on the stocks.  The big move will be Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V), which will now get to finally join the S&P 500. Its market cap varies from every source: $63.28 billion at Yahoo! Finance, Google Finance is $68.65 billion, and Bloomberg is at $60.4 billion.  Shares rose over 3.3% in the after-hours session to $84.10 after closing down 1.2% at $81.34 versus a 52-week trading range of $41.78 to $83.40.  We will have to make some calculations on Monday, but this will represent a significant buy-in trade for funds that track the S&P500 that will have to buy million of Visa shares.

JON C. OGG

Some of the companies we have looked at in this sector are Altair Nanotechnologies (NASDAQ:ALTI), privately held A123 Systems Inc., Active Power Inc. (NASDAQ:ACPW), Beacon Power Corporation (NASDAQ:BCON), Exide Technologies (NASDAQ:XIDE), EnerSys (NYSE:ENS), C&D Technologies Inc. (NYSE:CHP), and Axion Power International, Inc. (OTCBB:AXPW).

Certainly the interest in hybrid electric cars has generated publicity about battery and fuel cell development. The financial stimulus package before Congress includes $2 billion in grants for advanced battery development. For the transportation sector, advanced batteries need to be lighter and last longer. Current lithium-ion technology, though state-of-the-art, is hampered by the rising cost of the raw material and the relatively short life span of Li-ion batteries. Altair Nanotechnologies (NASDAQ:ALTI) and privately-held A123 Systems Inc. are both working on improving Li-ion performance.

By focusing on batteries for transportation applications, the stimulus package ignores a potentially more important use for advanced batteries: storage for electricity generated by wind and solar power plants.

If solar-generated power created during daylight hours could be stored and put on the grid during non-daylight hours, the impact of large solar installations would essentially double. Similarly, if wind-generated power could be stored for use when the wind isn’t blowing its popularity would soar.

Such batteries would need to be very large and able to respond to requests quickly to meet peak generation demand. Much of the development of this type of battery has been in the uninterruptible power supply space. For example, Active Power Inc. (NASDAQ:ACPW) uses a flywheel technology to build systems that provide up to 3600 kVA as a bridge to firing up a stand-alone generator in the event of a power failure. The flywheel technology can be scaled up to 2000 kW of storage, but that’s at least an order of magnitude too small to be useful in wind/solar storage project. Beacon Power Corporation (NASDAQ:BCON) is also a pure-play flywheel company, but its technology is still very much in the development phase.

To reach the scale needed for big wind and solar projects, the old stand-by lead-acid battery probably offers the most potential. The basic technology is more than 100 years old, but it has the advantage of being less expensive and scalable. Companies such as Exide Technologies (NASDAQ:XIDE), EnerSys (NYSE:ENS), C&D Technologies Inc. (NYSE:CHP), and Axion Power International, Inc. (OTCBB:AXPW) are all working on improving lead-acid technology and scalability. Axion has patented lead-carbon technology that significantly decreases the amount of lead needed in a battery and is currently working on a couple of utility-scale demonstration projects.

The $2 billion in the US economic stimulus package is a huge amount by the standards of the battery industry. The interesting thing to watch here will be how the Department of Energy divvies up the money. The battery companies, with a couple of exceptions, are very small with very low share prices. They employ few people, and won’t employ many more even with new federal money.

By virtue of its authority to make grants, the DOE could decide which companies win and which companies lose. That has never proven to be the best way to develop a market. It does, however, have the advantage of making things happen quickly.

Remember the ethanol boom following the government’s requirement for increased ethanol content in gasoline? Fortunes were made off this.  Ethanol promised to be so big that even Bill Gates jumped into the ring very early via an investment in a company no one ever heard of before he got in.  But the winners are not always winners in the end.  Think of where ethanol stocks are now. That kind of market distortion could happen with advanced battery technology as well.

The good news about the sector is that there are very large companies who have their eyes on the arena.  The world’s largest conglomerate has its hands tied right now, but it has shown some interest recently in battery technology.  We all need power.  Whether we all need ethanol is something we don’t care to debate, because we are firmly entrenched in our own thoughts there.

Paul Ausick
February 13, 2009