The company is aiming to bring a site for serious collectors and sports fans and offer a broad selection from official licensees of the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, and the International Federation of Association Football.

Collectors can now browse collectible items by item type, sport, year, team and price.  The offerings will be from trading cards and ticket stubs to game-used jerseys and autographed sports gear.

For many of these products, the store will display the authentication source and condition rating from authentication service providers like Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT), and other such as James Spence Authentication (JSA) and Beckett Grading Services (BGS).

You will not find that T206 Honus Wagner baseball card for sale that we just discussed.  That is for sale for $775,000 and a higher-grade sample just sold for north of $1.5 million.  More detail on investing in the T206 Honus Wagner is here.

As far as how Amazon will assure authenticity, it noted “The emphasis on authenticated selection, combined with our A-to-z Guarantee protection on purchases, allows customers to shop the new store with confidence.”

Buyers should know that this may distort prices paid in many cases.  If a wife or girlfriend wants to buy an item for an intimate other or if a father or mother want to buy collectibles for their kids, they may not have a firm grasp on the prevailing market price ranges that should be paid.

This will not derail the eBay auction dominance nor will it kill the auction houses which auction off the really high-end items.  What it may skew is all of the items out on the market in the under-$50 to $300 priced items.  The baseball memorabilia store’s top 7 items by price are all Babe Ruth signed baseballs and the rank is from over $46,000 down to $10,950.  Thanks, but no thanks. 

Lastly, keep in mind that Amazon has been selling many collectibles items.  This launch is more of a focused effort and it means that Amazon wants to attract many more sellers. The new launch is here.

JON C. OGG

January 2012 is the first time in memory that two different samples of the T206 Wagner card have been for sale in the same month.  If you have nearly unlimited means, a T206 Wagner can end up in your collection right now.  Another T206 Wagner just sold in early January.

Published reports indicate that there may be 50 to 100 samples of the T206 Honus Wagner that exist, but there may only be around 50 in existence after speaking with industry sources.  A sale of $2.8 million for the “Wayne Gretzky” T206 Honus Wagner in 2007 set a record, and that was after the exact same card had been bought for about $2.35 million earlier that same year. 

The reason this card is so rare is known as Honus Wagner decided to have the American Tobacco Company withdraw his card from the T206 series.  The “why” this card is so rare remains a debate even today.  Only a limited number of this card made it out into the public, or at least only a few which are known to have survived.  In the late 1800s and early 1900s, baseball cards were promotional inserts for cigarettes packs and tobacco packages, as well as made for other products.  They were far from being kids’ bubble gum cards that later generations would come to cherish.

The most common belief is that Wagner was anti-tobacco and did not want his image promoting cigarettes and tobacco products to children.  Maybe, but Maybe not.  This may have simply been a contract dispute over compensation or terms.  Here is the argument for the latter case… Honus Wagner’s image appeared on cigar boxes in some of the same years around the debated time of 1909 to 1911 when the T206 cards were distributed.  Robert Edwards Auctions has auctioned two such cigar boxes in recent years, and the Baseball Almanac shows these images as well.

While most baseball cards rise and fall in value and can be very cyclical, that just has not been the case for a T206 Honus Wagner.  As it turns out, there are millions of people who collect baseball cards and memorabilia or who have collected in their lives.  The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-2011 that there were 3.1 million millionaires in 2010.  And the same report showed over 40,000 in North America worth $30 million or more.  Some of these people are still collectors and there is no greater prize in sports collecting than being able to flaunt a T206 Wagner.

It was not very well covered in the media, but a T206 Honus Wagner from the famed Dreier collection just sold in early January 2012 through Legendary Auctions.  It was graded by PSA, one of the industry-recognized grading services and the grading brand of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT).  It was graded as a “4″ (on a scale of 1 to 10).  This famed T206 Wagner sold for an undisclosed sum.  After speaking with Doug Allen of Legendary, it was a privately negotiated transaction.  Mr. Allen would not disclose the buyer nor could we get an exact price, but he quoted, “The sale was for more than $1.5 million.”  An incredible sum indeed. 

Now there is another sample of the card for sale right now, for a hefty price.  Memory Lane has a “PSA 2″ graded T206 Wagner for sale today for a whopping $775,000.00.  It is even advertised on eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) as item #290661465614.  After speaking with J. P. Cohen of Memory Lane, this is card is on consignment and had previously been for sale at a higher price and the new price is said to be close to where offers came in for this exact card last year.

These two samples are not the only T206 Honus Wagner cards which have been sold in recent times.  A unique sample was a proof strip from the T206 set which actually belonged to Honus Wagner himself.  This was purchased at the Major League Baseball All-Star Auction by SCP Auctions (for an anonymous client) for the sum of $316,250 in 2010.  It was also SCP Auctions Inc. which brokered the record $2.8 million sale mentioned earlier of the prized Gretzky T206 Wagner.

No money was injured while filming

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) has been a phenomenal stock and it is a very well-run company.  It arguably has a brand leadership role, at least for public companies, in its restaurant mix of feel-good food, beer, and a sports bar all rolled into one.  That being said, its current share price does not seem to reflect the risks of a fall season without the NFL and without the NBA.  It is not alone.

There are also risks in shares of BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ: BJRI), Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ), Papa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA), Dreams Inc. (AMEX: DRJ), Collectors Universe Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT), and in Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA).  There are certainly others which would be considered at risk, but these are the most likely to be sports-sensitive out of our current watch-lists.

As of today, the professional football season is still a question mark.  As of today, there is a lock-out in the NBA level for professional basketball that looks certain to delay the season.  It was believed that Buffalo Wild Wings could mitigate one league being on the sidelines.  Now, strikes have the risks being in the August-football and October-basketball being on the sidelines.  Sure, there is the Saturday flurry for college football and through September there will be baseball games on just about every single day.  There are also other sports matches that will be played.

What Buffalo Wild Wings DOES have working in its favor is several key issues.  Gas prices are lower and food prices are falling and expected to fall even more this year.  The really good news is that chicken wing prices in particular will be sharply lower if the NBA and NFL go dark for this season.  The rise in beer prices has also likely peaked.  That means that promotions will vary from wing chain to wing chain, but the idea that Hooters or Buffalo Wild Wings will cut prices deeply (other than the promotions and giveaways) is not something we would expect to see on the full menu day in and day out.  Companies know that raising prices on the full menu is hard to do.

The reality is that Buffalo Wild Wings is not alone in its risks of a seasonal lock-out in two professional sports.  We already noted Hooters, even if it is private.  It is also not just food chains at risk if the NBA and NFL go without a 2011-2012 season.  These are some other observed names with real risk if both the NBA and NFL, and we have tried to list the good news about each as well.  These are as follows:

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (NASDAQ: BJRI) just hit a new 52-week and all-time high of $54.82 today.  It has a high forward P/E of almost 50-times earnings with some 107 owned and/or operated casual dining restaurants.  The good news here is that BJ’s is not just a sports destination.  The bad news is that it feels priced for perfection, even if we ultimately think a private equity group would love to own this chain.

Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) and Papa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) are in the same boat being equally tied to pizza and other comfort foods available for delivery or pick-up.  Papa John’s stock has actually pulled back more (with a downgrade today from SunTrust) at $32.13 from its 52-week highs of $34.75.  Domino’s is getting very close to now being outside of our “value zone” after we picked it out in April when shares were under $19.00.  If NBA games and NFL games are not going to be there this year, Domino’s could easily find its multi-pizza orders suffering from fewer house party events around sports.

Dreams Inc. (AMEX: DRJ) was previously lower on the thought that the NFL no-season was mostly priced into the stock.  At $2.60, its 52-week trading range is $1.17 to $3.18 but it is currently close to 3-month highs.  Sports licensed products and collector case sales are likely to suffer without NBA and NFL seasons combined.

Collectors Universe Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT) is the owner and operator of PSA grading for cards and other memorabilia grading and authentication.  At $15.28, its 52-week range is $11.01 to $17.03 and shares are close to the highest levels of the summer.  What PSA’s owner has going for it that others do not is a dividend yield of between 8% and 9% as of today.

Under Armour, Inc. (NYSE: UA) was bashed over the weekend as being overvalued and trading at multiples that are twice that of rivals, according to Barron’s.  At $79.29, its 52-week range is $32.11 to $80.00 and this is effectively close to all-time highs.  Non-professional athletes are likely to keep buying sportswear even if there is not a pro-season in the NBA and NFL, but this one was singled out in Barron’s this weekend and is one we believe may have more at risk compared to other growth apparel stocks.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) has already gone through a period of some downs.  Still, at $67.00 it is near all-time highs and the official 52-week range is $35.01 to $67.30.  Analysts have not exactly gone out and rushed to cut earnings estimates for the September quarter as of yet because we do not have the June-quarter results nor do we have formal guidance for both leagues being in the dark.

What needs to be considered is simple.  Long-term, sports leagues do not stay on the sidelines endlessly.  Even major wars have not ended play for too long.  It seems unlikely that the leagues and the players will allow a full season to be interrupted, even if the seasons are much shorter and without pre-seasons.

The good news is for price-sensitive consumers looking for deals.  You will likely have less wait times for seating and deliveries, and you can probably expect better promotions by the companies.

JON C. OGG

CKX is far from a normal public company and it was one of several highly unique public companies we have recently featured and most of these could even be classified as cult stocks.  Pinpointing a real value in CKX comes down to “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.”  The company owns the rights to the name, image and likeness of Elvis Presley and Muhammad Ali, the operations of Graceland, and proprietary rights to the IDOLS and So You Think You Can Dance television brands.  Robert F.X. Sillerman resigned as its Chairman and CEO to pursue a possible acquisition of the company but those talks ended in 2010.  The company’s total assets were $460.8 million at the end of 2010 and the buyout is being valued at close to $510 million.

We have highlighted each of these other unique public companies in a brief description below and that full prior article on unique companies goes much deeper into the operations and values of each.  Today we have only a brief description and a market capitalization rate compared to total asset values (not book values).

Collectors Universe Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT) is effectively the last public company out there pertaining to grading and evaluating collectibles and grading other items.  The market cap here is about $120 million and the assets are about $37 million.

Destination Maternity Corporation (NASDAQ: DEST) screens out as a retailer, but it is effectively a pure-play in maternity clothing and apparel, with over 1,700 retail locations.  The market cap here is only about $300 million versus a total asset size of about $200 million.

Lululemon Athletica, Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) has become so large that it will almost be forced to live up to its yoga-monopoly image.  Amazingly, very few ‘knock-off’ imitation companies exist on their own.  Lulu’s market cap is now over $7 billion and its valuations totay are likely to scare away a buyer; its total assets were valued recently a about $500 million.

Madison Square Garden, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSG) fits right in for private equity via sports teams, entertainment, and highly recognized venues.  The Garden has a $2 billion market cap and its total assets were listed as worth close to $2.2 billion.

Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc. (NASDAQ: OMEX) is basically a publicly traded treasure hunting outfit.  Why not get a bunch of billionaires to scuba dive ancient shipwrecks?  Total assets are listed as about $19 million versus a market cap of about $235 million.  That market cap does not really include its potential project values and future finds.

Premier Exhibitions, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRXI) is truly unique, part artifact-owner and part museum. It owns the BODIES exhibit and has the Salvor-In-Possession rights to the shipwreck of HMS Titanic and has the museum exhibit Titanic: The Artifact Exhibition. Its market cap is only about $85 million and its total assets are listed as being about $37 million.

Rick’s Cabaret International Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) is truly unique as it screens out as a “restaurant” in financial screens. It is America’s broadest play on “adult nightclubs for businessmen and professionals.”  Its market cap is just over $100 million with a total asset valuation of close to $150 million.  Obviously, the big question will be if a private equity firm wants to explain why it suddenly owns strip clubs.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is not your normal gold stock as it is involved in royalty acquisitions.  Amazingly, it has only about 20 employees and commands a market cap of $3.25 billion with a total asset valuation of $1.86 billion.

Maybe some of these companies can fit into a private equity portfolio. Keep in mind that some may be too unique or may be in industries which private equity firms choose to avoid.

That more detailed review of very unique public companies is here.

JON C. OGG

If you haven’t heard of Odyssey Marine Exploration Inc. (OMR-AMEX), you either haven’t watch treasure ship shows on television or haven’t seen some wild occasional stock moves.  Today shares of Odyssey Marine Exploration are up a whopping 60% to a multi-year high of $7.38 and this is not because of a takeover.

The company has completed a pre-disturbance archaelogical survey and preliminary excavation of a Colonial-period shipwreck in an "undiclosed location in the Atlantic Ocean."  The artifacts include more than 500,000 silver coins that are said to weigh more than 17 tons.  There are also gold coins and other precious artifacts.  These are said to be legally imported into the United States and are undergoing documentation and conservation.

This is the same outfit that uncovered the gold coins from the SS Republic, an 1865 Civil War era shipwreck that yielded over 50,000 coins with a retail value said to be over $75 million.  If you have ever been channel surfing on television late at night you have probably seen those coins. 

The company has a market cap of some $347 million after today’s massive run.  The question now is "what is the value of the other potential ships in the area?".  There is also the ongoing turf wars that exist in every offshore treasure hunt because every nation around wants their cut, and depending on how old the shipwrecks are, there may actually stilll be some ‘salvage and ownership claims’ from either government or individuals or insurance companies that paid loss claims once upon a time.  This one is now an even more active speculator’s stock if you ever saw one.

There are some other stocks that get tied in to this sort of stock whenever there is news.  Gallery of History (HIST-NASDAQ) is a micro-cap that has some overlaps.  Collector’s Universe (CLCT-NASDAQ) is a coin grading and certification service, although they are probably more known for their PSA sportscard and memorabilia grading and authentication services.  There is lastly the company Premier Exhibitions Inc. (PRXI-NASDAQ), which owns of all things the RMS Titanic Inc. (yes, the famed shipwreck) salvage and artifact company. 

Jon C. Ogg
May 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.