Three months ago analysts expected First Solar’s second quarter EPS to come in at $2.01. That estimate is now $0.92. Even if the company beats expectations, the results will be disappointing. So First Solar found some good news to report.

The smaller bit of news is that the company’s cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film modules have been certified as able to withstand the corrosive effects of salty air close to coastlines. This means that First Solar’s modules can be used in a rather nasty environment and that the company’s 25-year guarantee actually means something.

The second bit of news is more interesting, if somewhat longer term in applicability. The company has announced that it has set a new record for CdTe thin-film efficiency of 17.3%. That is, the solar PV cell converts 17.3% of the sunlight that hits it to electricity. This is 0.6% better than the previous efficiency record, which was set 10 years ago. In technology circles, 10 years is about 3 lifetimes.

While First Solar’s achievement is certainly praiseworthy, production of the high-efficiency cells remains well into the future. Currently the company is shipping modules with efficiencies of 11.7%. (Modules, unfortunately, are not as efficient as single cells.) By the end of 2014, First Solar expects to be shipping modules with an efficiency of 13.5%-14.5%.

Compared with crystalline silicon solar PV modules, the efficiency is not as high, but the cost/watt more than makes up the difference. Current modules prices are right around $0.75/watt, the lowest in the entire solar PV industry. If the company can get the higher efficiency cells out at that price, that will be a significant achievement.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) claims to have produced a CdTe module in its laboratories with an efficiency of 12.8% and that it will begin mass producing modules with these high efficiency ratings in 2013. That’s a bit lower than First Solar’s projected efficiency, but the timeline is more aggressive. If GE can make good on its promise First Solar will have some real competition in the thin-film solar PV space.

None of this is likely to sway investors much if First Solar’s earnings are not gargantuan. At around mid-day, shares are trading down about -2%, at $117.89, within a 52-week range of $111.40-$175.45. Any kind of miss or near-miss on expectations could push shares closer to the low end of that range.

Paul Ausick

For those of you who follow alternative energy or follow marketpundits, this is T. Boone Pickens’ natural gas for auto vehiclesstock.  Pelosi clean energy desires make this an interesting play, andit makes one wonder if more legislation along the lines of the Picken Plan is going to really come down the pipe.

Cramer believes this is as big of a ringing endorsement of the highestsort, but because it is thin volume he wants you waiting five daysbefore pulling the trigger.

This was recently downgraded by Broadpoint, and Pickens recently talked it up ahead of his traveling around to discuss the Pickens Plan.  Shares were flat today, but after the Cramer tout this stock traded up 7% to $15.25 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg
August 25, 2008

As far as overall oil and energy, T. Boone Pickens is still very bullish.  He is still not going with formal targets but noted that oil production is now 85M barrels per day and there is a 88M production goal for Q4, "so production is going up."  He also noted that as some fear Oil could go to $100, but he doesn’t think that will happen this year and he thinks that would take a geopolitical event.  T. Boone Pickens created waves and a lot of scurrying when he predicted $80 oil before he’s 80, and that easily came to pass.

Recently we gave an extreme case that some outsiders think could yield oil at $200 per barrel, although keep in mind this is over quite a long time frame.  Goldman Sachs also just lifted its theoretical oil "Super-Spike" band to a higher level of $135 per barrel and even $4.50 per gallon at the pump.  You can also see their comments on individual stocks in the sector here.

Interestingly enough, on the very near term he thinks we should get a pullback here to maybe $78 per barrel.  He still thinks the overall trend is up as demand is up and production is relatively flat.  He noted that there will be less demand in second quarter of 2008, but supply is not going to get better.  As far as where price kills demand, he won’t predict because it hasn’t happened yet at each milestone crossed.

He also noted that America is going green, and his company Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ:CLNE) is a green company that turns compressed and liquefied natural gas to run automobiles and the time has come for this.  He noted that this is domestic, cheap, and clean and that it will happen.

As far as his stance on on gasification of coal, all kinds of alternative energy in coal and natural gas are there with oil at $82.00, but it all depends upon costs.

If you are interested in what goes on the Business World of "Global Warming" or "Climate Change," we now run a daily piece each afternoon on the business developments with public companies titled "The Business Day In Global Warming."  We do not cover this under any political bend.  Every major company out there seems to have some greener initiative, and as far as the Western World is concerned "Green Business Is Now Big Business."

If you would like to set up an RSS feed daily to our ALTERNATIVE ENERGY thread section you can link at the URL here:
http://www.247wallst.com/alternative_energy/index.html

Jon C. Ogg
September 19, 2007

Jon C. Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St., LLC Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.