Strong attendance at Barcelona was a sign to the Merrill Lynch analysts that the sector is not dead, but risks after the Chinese-fueled commodity super cycle leave higher, fixed-cost producers vulnerable. They prefer stocks with some element of “self-help,” which they define as evidence the company is controlling its destiny beyond simply waiting around for improving market conditions. They used that criteria when creating their list of stocks to buy.

Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NU) leads off the list of stocks to buy at Merrill Lynch. Nucor, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products in North America and internationally. It operates through three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products and Raw Materials. The Merrill Lynch price objective is $49. The Thomson/First Call consensus estimate is higher at $52. Investors are paid a solid 3.20% dividend.

Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU) is one of the top metals stock picks on Wall Street. When the company reported earnings last month, management was optimistic that 2013 revenues would exceed 2012. Merrill Lynch has a $72 price target. The consensus is at $74. The stock pays a 1.90% dividend.

Suncoke Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE: SXCP) has a large investor in Kayne Anderson Capital, which holds a 10.27% stake in the coking company. Merrill Lynch has a $24 target. The consensus target is at $22.50.

TMS International Corp. (NYSE: TMS) is a solid small-cap name to make the Merrill Lynch list of stocks to buy. It provides outsourced industrial services to steel mills in North America and internationally, and its earnings have been strong in the past two quarters. Merrill Lynch has a $16 price objective, and the consensus for the stock is at $16.50. Investors receive a 2.60% annual dividend.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (NYSE: RS) has provided investors with a solid 16.2% return, nearly three times that of the metal fabrication industry’s average over the past year. Merrill Lynch has a $70 price target. The consensus for the stock is at $71. Investors receive a 1.80% dividend.

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) has benefited from the boom in hydraulic fracturing techniques used in unconventional oil and gas plays. Allegheny also recently bought its way into the aerospace industry, where it hopes to grow alongside global air traffic. While Merrill Lynch has a $46 target on the stock, the consensus target is much lower at $34.50. Shareholders are paid a 2.40% dividend. Merrill Lynch has the highest price target on the stock on Wall Street.

RTI International Metals Inc. (NYSE: RTI)  produces and supplies titanium mill products worldwide and posted second-quarter revenues that were up 21%. Merrill Lynch has a $34 target. The consensus is higher at $35.

CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) rounds out the list of specialty metals and mining stocks to buy. The company’s coal operations mine both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for use in the production of steel. CONSOL explores and produces natural gas in the Marcellus Shale and the Utica Shale. Merrill Lynch has a $36 price target, and the consensus for the stock is at $40. Investors receive a 1.50% dividend.

The companies to buy on the Merrill Lynch list have lagged some of the other sectors on Wall Street over the past year. A rebound in domestic and global growth over the next 12 to 18 months could provide the spark for this sector to become a market leader. Investors may want to take some profit on current winners and move some of the gains to specialty metals and mining names.

The firm chose companies in the following segments: Aerospace & Defense; Auto, Auto Parts and Auto Retailers; Coal & Precious Metals; Engineering & Construction; Construction Materials & Diversified Industrials; Oil & Gas; Services; and Shipping & Transportation Equipment. We included a street-consensus target from Thomson Reuters and put in firm data specific to these calls today.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) was the top pick for Aerospace & Defense “given our updated commercial aircraft forecast coupled with our view that Boeing’s gross order book will be >1.0x in 2013/2014. Longer-term, given the cash flow dynamics with ramping production and improving 787 cost curve, a 50% move in Boeing shares is achievable before the peak of the cycle in 2015.” Boeing’s $120 price target at Stern Agee compares to a current price of $98.92 and compares to a consensus price target of $103.90. BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) was also shown as a top pick after Boeing with big upside. BE Aero trades at $62.95 and Stern Agee’s $72 target compares to $69.17 from Wall Street.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) and TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (NYSE: TRW) led in the Auto, Auto Parts and Auto Retailers. The firm said, “We believe all three companies are well positioned to benefit from the global demand trends, as well as the likelihood of company specific actions to enhance shareholder value.” Ford is the only one of these three with a dividend.

Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) was Stern Agee’s Coal & Precious Metals top pick as the low-cost provider with a solid balance sheet. The firm said, “We note the solid potential of upside to Northern Appalachian thermal margins as scrubbed utilities and international power companies seek out high heat coals, with enhanced met coal margins once pricing recovers and added shale exploitation success. We believe the market will accelerate its appreciation of the asset value compiled at Consol, especially with an overcapitalized balance sheet.” Shares closed at $33.97 recently, way under the $60 target price from Stern Agee. That implies almost a double your money call, but we would caution that Wall Street’s consensus price target was $42.22 per share on last look.

Fluor Corp. (NYSE: FLR) was the top pick in Engineering & Construction and Stern Agee said, “We expect continued strong cash generation, balance sheet strength and margin expansion as the current cycle evolves. With the approval of the second U.S. LNG export facility last week, we believe these opportunities continue to become more tangible providing further catalysts for Fluor.” Stern Agee see Fluor going to $80 and Wall Street has a consensus of $75 on the stock versus $64.57 recently.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (NYSE: MLM) is the top pick for Construction Materials & Diversified Industrials as the number-two producer of construction aggregates with a strong balance sheet and significant operating leverage of over 60% to a volume recovery. The firm said, “For investors in housing-related stocks looking for what’s next, we think MLM is it.” At $110.91 now, the consensus target is actually under the current price at $110.67. Stern Agee has the street-high target of $128 for this stock.

Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL) was the top exploration and production pick in Oil & Gas. Stern Agee said, “Given increasing activity in the Permian Basin and Niobrara this year, we see upside to 2013E production of 94.8 mboe/d. With a possible monetization of the mature Postle field and/or a joint venture in an emerging basin as 2013 catalysts, we believe shares remain attractively valued relative to our $62 price target.” Whiting’s current price is $46.54 against a consensus price target of $60.50 on the stock.

Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN) was said to remain as a top pick in the Services sector which should post strong earnings and cash flow growth in 2014-15. Stern Agee likes its improving U.S. land market and rising Gulf of Mexico activity coming with strong international growth initiatives. The price of $28.44 compares to a Stern Agee target of $34.00 and a consensus target price of $32.93.

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE: GBX) is Stern Agee’s top pick in Shipping & Transportation Equipment. The firm said. “We believe GBX is poised to benefit from continued strong order flow for tank cars, a re-acceleration in non-tank car backlog growth, and robust margin expansion over the next two years as more higher margin tank and automotive cars are delivered out of the backlog.” Shares trade at $24.45 and hit a new 52-week high of $24.45 today, and Stern Agee sees the stock going up to $28 versus a $26 consensus price target.

Eagle Materials Inc. (NYSE: EXP) was also given a positive reiterated Buy rating. Stern Agee said that the construction recovery remains on track, as does the company’s frac sand business. Both are expected to be strong drivers over the next few years. At about $77 now, Stern Agee has a target price of $85.00 and the consensus price target is $83.50.

As you can see, some of these picks are very aggressive while others are very much in-line with Wall Street consensus target price expectations.

As the first of the U.S. coal miners to report — and the largest — Peabody’s results offer an opportunity to look at Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR), Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI), CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC), Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD). All these stocks are getting a boost today from Peabody’s results.

In its press release, Peabody noted a decline in Australian pricing in the quarter, but a rise in shipments. U.S. revenues were down 12% on a 6% drop in shipments. But Peabody expects a change going forward.

For the remainder of 2013, Peabody expects coal to recapture the “majority” of the demand it lost to natural gas in 2012. Rising U.S. prices for natural gas have returned coal to is low-cost status as a fuel for power generation. Demand from coal-fired plants rose 15% in March, while natural gas demand fell by 16%.

Given Peabody’s surprising results, a look at the other coal miners might provide some insight into the sector ahead of more earnings reports. Unlike Peabody, none of these firms has Australian operations to figure into the equation.

Alpha Natural Resources is expected to post an EPS loss of $0.59 on revenues of$1.32 billion. The company’s expected loss has narrowed from $0.67 three months ago, but given Peabody’s drop in shipments, Alpha’s revenue, projected to drop more than 30% year-over-year in the first quarter, could be weaker than expected. Alpha reports earnings on May 1.

The consensus first-quarter estimates for Arch Coal calls for an EPS loss of $0.34 on revenues of $912.03 million. The expected loss has widened from $0.30 in the past three months, and the revenue estimate is 12% lower than last year’s first quarter total. Arch reports earnings next week.

CONSOL Energy is expected to post first-quarter EPS of $0.18 on revenues of $1.25 billion. The EPS estimate has come down $0.02 in the past three months, and the estimated EPS is way down from $0.42 in the same period a year ago. CONSOL has been somewhat insulated from the harsh treatment for coal because the company also produces natural gas and some liquids. CONSOL reports results next week.

James River is expected to post an EPS loss of $1.63 on revenues of $192.64 million when it reports earnings on April 29. Revenues are expected to be nearly a third lower than a year ago and EPS is more than three times worse. Analysts expect little from James River this quarter, and it is very likely the company will deliver on those expectations.

Walter Energy is expected to post an EPS loss of $0.88 on revenues of $505.55 million when it reports on earnings on May 1. Expectations have fallen from an EPS loss of $0.48 just three months ago. In the first quarter a year ago, Walter Energy posted EPS of $0.65.

Cloud Peak reports earnings on April 30 and is expected to post EPS of $0.28 on revenues of $353.29 million. Revenues are expected to be down more than 5% year-over-year, and EPS expectations to have fallen from $0.37 just three months ago. Over the past 12 months, however, Cloud Peak is the only one of these companies to put up share price growth. Shares are up about 34%, compared to a drop of 70% at Walter, 64% at James River, 55% at Alpha, 49% at Arch, 27% at Peabody and about 5% at Consol.

Peabody’s shares are up 9% just before noon today, at $20.43 in a 52-week range of $18.56 to $31.97.

Alpha’s shares are up 5.3%, at $7.21 in a 52-week range of $5.28 to $17.30.

Arch’s shares are up 8.8%, at $4.95 in a 52-week range of $4.47 to $10.26.

CONSOL’s shares are up 4.4%, at $32.70 in a 52-week range of $26.41 to $37.39.

James River’s shares are up 6.8%, at $1.74 in a 52-week range of $1.46 to $5.89.

Walter Energy’s shares are up 2.2%, at $18.95 in a 52-week range of $18.21 to $69.41.

Cloud Peak’s shares are up 4.3%, at $18.95 in a 52-week range of $13.65 to $22.31.

Coal is also a highly political issue, and it is no secret that the current administration would rather see solar power or just about anything else but coal be the fuel driving America’s electricity. Given inexpensive shale gas and pending environmental rules, the domestic coal market will probably never be larger than 90% of the levels seen in the past decade.

While this may sound disastrous, the metals and mining team at Jefferies Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF) believe there is a positive investment case to be made for the surviving producers. In a new research report, the analysts highlight the stocks that can be bought and give some reasons why investors may need to take a contrarian stance.

The team at Jefferies cite the fact that all four major coal companies have decades of reserves. As a result, there is little need to spend money on exploration. Plus, much of the needed capital already has been sunk. Therefore, even at current coal prices, they expect the coal industry to generate substantial levels of free cash flow for years to come. In addition they believe there is upside to current coal prices.

In their current report, the analysts at Jefferies recommend the purchase of all four of the following major coal companies. They are trading at levels not seen in years.

Based in Bristol, Va., Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is a leader in metallurgical coal mining. That is the coal that is used in industry to make steel and other products. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $13. Based on current trading levels, that would represent a 50% stock move for investors. The Thomson/First Call price target is close at $12.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is also a stock to buy at Jefferies. With 32 mines in operation, Arch Coal is another large producer of steam and metallurgical coal, and it has an estimated 5.5 billion tons of proven and recoverable reserves. It is trading in the mid $5 range, and the price target is $12. The Wall St. consensus target for Arch Coal is $7.75. Investors may recall that this stock traded as high as the upper 70s in the summer of 2008.

Pennsylvania-based CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) has the distinction of being in both the coal and the natural gas business, a consideration for investors looking to be involved in the coal trade but like diversification. With large coal and natural gas reserves, CONSOL has a price target of $46. The consensus estimate is $40.

Rounding out the four major U.S. coal producers and stocks to buy is another former high flyer, Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU). Trading over $80 back in 2008, Peabody Energy is estimated to have more than 30 years of quality reserves. The price target is $40 at Jefferies,while the consensus target is $33.75.

Investors looking for anecdotal reasons to buy these stocks should recall the horrific Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan two years ago. In the wake of that event, Japan has shut down all but one of its nuclear plants. Germany has announced plans to shut down all of its nuclear plants by 2022. In addition, some aging nuclear plants in the U.S. are expected to be shut down. Some energy source is needed to replace that electricity output. Cheap coal is a huge alternative as natural gas climbs back towards $4.

Large, growing countries like China and India use a tremendous of amount of energy and both rely on thermal coal to produce electricity. In China, more than 70% of domestic electricity generation is from coal-fired power plants, while India uses thermal coal for about 60% of its electric power supply. Economic recovery in Europe and Japan, both of which are large importers of thermal coal, will only increase demand.

Every 10 years or so, investors get to pick through the rubble of a shattered industry. After the tech collapse in 2000, names that had traded over $100 became single-digit stocks and were assumed to be going to zero. One stock that was in the single digits then was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). The stock ultimately went over $705 last summer. There is absolutely no guarantee that will ever happen with coal stocks, but there is also no guarantee they will go out of (or stay in) business.

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR) cut to Neutral at UBS.

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) raised to Buy at UBS.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: AHL) raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) raised to Hold at Soc-Gen.

Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) raised to Overweight at Piper Jaffray.

CONSOL Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) raised to Outperform at BMO.

DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc. (NYSE: DVA) cut to Neutral at SunTrust Robinson Humphreys.

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI) maintained Buy but cut target price to $49 from $53 at Argus.

Mylan Inc. (NASDAQ: MYL) cut to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) cut to Market Perform at BMO.

Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) raised to Neutral at BofA Merrill Lynch.

Veolia Environnement S.A. (NYSE: VE) cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Here are 11 stocks that analysts expect to rise 50% to 100% (or more) over the next year.

We also have the 13 must-read stock stories from the weekend for Monday morning covering M&A, activist investors, Barron’s, Jim Cramer and more.

While James River has tried to talk about 2012 being the toughest year and some stability forming, the long and short of the matter is that restructuring efforts are bringing more layoffs. If you look through this, you will also see that the layoffs in the coal sector go above and beyond this one company.

Charges also impacted that loss, coming from goodwill impairments, a gain from the repurchase of debt, and restructuring. James River said that the markets for domestic thermal coal and met coal were awful in 2012, but the company’s statement shows a belief that both markets are showing some marginal improvement as 2013 is underway with reduced production by the coal industry, slightly better weather and increased demand from Asia. The company closed and idled mines, reduced working hours, reviewed and changed the purchasing process for its expenses and has lowered its headcount and expenses. Here are the mines and units affected:

• Idled five underground mines (Abner Branch, Mine 16, Mine 6A, Mine 31, Jellico).
• Idled two preparation plants (BL1 Plant and Burke).
• Idled one load out (Sunny Knot).
• Reduced production at three surface mines (Frasure, Buckeye, Montgomery Creek).

The efforts taken have cut out its production capacity by 3 million tons. It also has had an impact on about 400 employees and contractors.

Layoffs are being felt elsewhere in the coal sector:

• The Department of Labor recently awarded $5.2 million to help laid-off coal workers in Eastern Kentucky to find new jobs as more than 2,000 of these workers in that area have lost jobs since the start of 2012.
• Another 90 workers were shown to be laid off at a mine in Virgina just in February.
• Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) had 200 layoffs in Kentucky discussed in January.
• Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) said in December that it had laid off 147 workers as it idled a West Virginia plant.

These are just the recent layoffs, and the cuts affected many more workers earlier in 2012.

The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) loss for the quarter was just $0.19, compared with an estimate for a loss of $0.55. Revenues of $1.56 billion were slightly better than the consensus estimate of $1.55 billion.

Investors are taking hope from the company’s statement that it expects to benefit from an “eventual recovery” in the global market for metallurgical coal. And production costs are forecast to fall to an annual range of $71 to $75 per ton for eastern U.S. coal from an average of $75.84 a ton in the fourth quarter of 2012. In the fourth quarter of 2011, average costs were $81.21, but the company has closed several mines in the past year that contributed to the company’s falling costs.

When Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) reported earnings a couple of weeks ago, its poor showing dragged all the bigger coal stocks down. Same thing happened when Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) reported earnings a few days later. Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX), James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC), Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) tagged along for the most part.

This morning, Alpha’s shares are up about 13.7% at $9.65 in a 52-week range of $5.28 to $21.19. Shares of Peabody are up 2.8%, Consol’s shares are up 1.6%, Arch Coal is up 4.1%, Walter Energy shares are up 2.2%, James River is up 6.8% and Cloud Peak is down 0.4%, probably because when the company reported earnings last night they did not quite live up to expectations.

Coal stocks are almost like solar stocks these days. Each reacts to good or bad news about a competitor in the same way they would react if the news was just about itself. If there is money to be made in the sector it is on volatility, not on holding for the long term. In any but the shortest term, coal’s place as a fuel for electricity generation in the United States is on a continual downtrend and should remain there over the long haul.

And when one coal miner coughs, they all catch a cold. Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) dragged the sector down last week when it reported quarterly results, and Arch’s results are having the same effect. Peabody’s shares are down about 2.5% today, Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) is seeing its shares down about 0.3%, and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is down more than 2%. James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is up about 0.7%, while Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) is down about 2.3% and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) is down fractionally.

Demand for Arch’s thermal coal has fallen off the table as mild weather and cheap natural gas continue to throttle demand. The company now expects volume shipments of about 141 million tons in 2013, down from 155 million tons in 2012. Production at Consol has dropped from 62 million tons in 2011 to an estimated 55.5 million to 57.5 million tons for 2013. That’s one reason Consol is putting more effort and investment into its natural gas assets.

Like Peabody, Arch said today that it is “seeing signs” of a possible recovery in the domestic coal market in the second half of 2013. Those signs will evaporate unless natural gas prices move closer to $4 per million BTUs. Today’s price is about $3.34 per million BTUs, and the outlook for the first half of 2013 does not indicate an average price above $4.

After a good night’s sleep, investors have bid the stock down about 4.5% today and the drop has taken the other coal miners along for the ride. Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) is down about 2.9% today, Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is down 3.8%, Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) about 1%, James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) is down about 4.4%, Walter Energy Inc. (NYSE: WLT) about 1.8%, and Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (NYSE: CLD) is down 2.2%.

Peabody forecast higher costs in Australian operations and lower sales and pricing in the U.S. in the first quarter. The company sold 248.5 million tons of coal last year, near the high end of its 2013 forecast of 230 to 250 million tons. Peabody expects U.S. coal shipments to rise as natural gas costs rise and power plants switch back to coal-fired generation. The problem with that conclusion is that natural gas prices have been falling again.

Consol Energy said earlier this month that it would change the focus of its capital investments to natural gas production and will invest twice as much in gas as it will in coal. That news also dragged down coal stocks. Try as it might, the coal sector is still having trouble finding the silver lining.

With crude on the East Coast priced at higher Brent crude levels, the refineries have faced a severe disadvantage compared with mid-continent refineries with access to cheaper West Texas Intermediate crude. As transportation networks for the cheaper crude work their way into the eastern United States, the differential will likely only get worse before it gets better.

The company’s CEO said:

By closing the Port Reading refinery and selling our terminal network, Hess will complete its transformation from an integrated oil and gas company to one that is predominantly an exploration and production company and be able to redeploy substantial additional capital to fund its future growth opportunities.

Maybe, but at least equally likely is an acquisition. Hess is shedding its money-losing operations and the company may end up being too small to make it on its own. The company’s proved reserves at the end of 2011 totaled 1.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and nearly half of those are undeveloped. In 2011, the company produced 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

The good news for Hess is that it holds leases on 900,000 net acres in the Bakken play and more than 100,000 acres in the Eagle Ford play. The company also completed the acquisition of some 85,000 net acres and a 50% interest from Consol Energy Inc. (NYSE: CNX) in another 200,000 acres in the Utica shale play.

Shares in Hess are up 6.2% at $62.50 in a 52-week range of $39.67 to $67.86.