The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 89 points to 12,801.23 (-0.69%), the NASDAQ fell more than 23 points (-0.8%) to 2,903.88, and the S&P 500 fell -0.69% or more than 9 points to 1,342.64.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) raised to ‘buy’ at Deutsche Bank; Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) started as ‘overweight’ at both Barclays and Morgan Stanley; American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) reiterated as ‘buy’ and target price raised to $450 at Argus; and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) started as ‘buy’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: LinkedIn Corp. (NASDAQ: LNKD) is up more than 18% at $90.44 (more coverage here); Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) is down -2.84% at $12.30; Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) is down -9.8% at $1.26; Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRE) is down -3.5% at $11.20; Kona Grill Inc. (NASDAQ: KONA) is down -3.8% at $6.05; True Religion Apparel Inc. (NASDAQ: TRLG) is down more than -27% at $26.75; Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF) is up 6.5% at $11.73 after posting a new 52-week high of $12.24 earlier today; Move Inc. (NASDAQ: MOVE) is up 14% at $8.65; Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) is down -2.7% at $100.70; Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) is up more than 14% at $22.65 after posting a new 52-week high of $23.57 earlier today; Alcatel Lucent (NYSE: ALU) is up more than 13% at $2.2 (more coverage here); FLIR Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR) is down -3.3% at $24.90; and Ruth’s Hospitality Group Inc. (NASDAQ: RUTH) is up 3.2% at $6.19.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down more than -10% at $43.94. The thin-film solar panel maker is having trouble meeting a financing requirement related to the sale of one of its solar farms to Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC). More coverage here.

Tandy Brands Accessories Inc. (NASDAQ: TBAC) is up nearly 71% at $1.77. The clothing accessories maker announced strong earnings and two new brand licensing agreements today.

Cobalt International Energy Inc. (NYSE: CIE) is up 35% at $32.27 after posting a new 52-week high of $36.51 earlier today. The independent oil & gas producer reported significantly better-than-expected flows from a test well offshore of Angola.

RPX Corp. (NASDAQ: RPXC) is up more than 11% at $19.21. The patent management software maker has a contract with Alcatel Lucent that could be very valuable as the larger company begins more aggressively to license its 29,000 patents.

Amyris Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRS) is down more than -28% at $6.95 after posting a new 52-week low of $6.85 earlier today. The biofuel maker’s stock was downgraded following a negative outlook from the company for 2012.

Stay tuned for Monday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 11:30 a.m. – 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

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Have a great weekend.

Paul Ausick

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Cut to Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
American Superconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: AMSC) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG) Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) Started as Buy at Citigroup.
Coinstar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Neutral at Collins Stewart.
Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) Started as Overweight at Barclays; Started as Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Hain Celestial Group (NASDAQ: HAIN) maintained Outperform and named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $450 at Argus.
Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE: RF) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
True Religion Apparel, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRLG) Cut to Hold at Brean Murray.

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JON C. OGG

High-end US retailers include Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), the Bloomingdale’s stores owned by Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M), Norstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), and Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH). Same-store sales have been good at these retailers and the outlook for the third quarter for all has been very solid.

Tiffany doesn’t report monthly sales, but its second-quarter revenues were 24% higher year-over-year and same-store sales in the quarter rose 22%. Earnings rose 33% and the company posted adjusted EPS of $0.86, more than 20% higher than analysts expected. For the company’s fiscal year, which ends in January 2012, Tiffany expects a sales boost in the high-teens, a rise in operating margin of 1%, and an increase in EPS from a previously guided $3.45-$3.55 to $3.65-$3.75.

For Tiffany’s third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $0.60 on revenues of $806 million, rising to EPS of $1.64 on revenues of $1.27 billion in the fourth quarter. The third quarter revenue estimate is lower than the company’s second-quarter total. That is likely due to an expected drop in sales in emerging countries, particularly China, where growth in the sales of luxury goods is expected to fall as the country’s economy cools off.

Saks Fifth Avenue reported same-store sales growth of 9.3% in September and a two-month jump of 8.0%. For the year-to-date, Saks’ same-store sales are up 11.5%. For the current quarter, which ends this month, Saks is expected to post revenue of $698 million and EPS of $0.09. For its fourth quarter, expectations rise to EPS of $0.16 on revenue of $916 million.

Macy’s reported same-store sales rose 4.9% in September and said that sales for the third and fourth quarters would be at the high-end of guidance at 4%-4.5%. Analysts are forecasting that Macy’s third-quarter EPS will be  $0.16, rising to $1.66 in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the third quarter is forecast at $5.88 billion, rising to $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Nordstrom’s same-store sales jumped 10.7% in September, more than double analysts’ expectations. Third-quarter revenue is expected to reach $2.34 billion with EPS of $0.57. In the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to rise to $3.1 billion and EPS is forecast at $1.11.

Ralph Lauren does not report monthly sales. The company’s revenues are nearly equally split between its retail stores and its wholesale and licensing businesses. For the third quarter, analysts are expecting EPS of $2.23 on revenue of $1.84 billion. For the fourth quarter, EPS is expected to reach $1.74 on revenue of $1.77 billion. Compared with the same periods a year ago, third-quarter EPS is expected to rise nearly 7%, while fourth-quarter EPS is expected to rise by just over 1%.

Coach reported fiscal year 2011 numbers in August, including a jump in same-store sales of 10.6% for the year. For its first fiscal quarter of 2012, the company is expected to post EPS of $0.70 on revenue of $1.02 billion. For the second quarter, ending in December, EPS is expected to reach $1.14 on sales of $1.42 billion.

According to a recent survey, consumers with discretionary incomes above $250,000 plan to spend about 7% more during this year’s holiday season. [http://www.jckonline.com/2011/10/10/only-richest-consumers-spending-more-this-holiday] Those with incomes between $100,000 and $250,000, however, are expecting to spend about 17% less. For those with incomes below $100,000, spending will fall by 28%.

Those with discretionary incomes above $100,000 who say they plan to spend less this year are not worried about the economy. They claim that they already have too much stuff.

At the other end of the spectrum, an indicator of expectations at the lower end of the income distribution is the number of containers arriving at US ports. The Port of Long Beach is expecting a 15% drop year-over-year from last September, and the number of containers coming into New York-New Jersey is only flat with last year.

Jewelry and high-end handbags don’t make up those shipments, but goods headed to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) do. That pretty well sums up the state of the US economy and this year’s outlook for holiday sales.

Paul Ausick

Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) Started as Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) Cut to UNderperform at BNP Paribas.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) STarted as Overweight at Barclays.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: CINF) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Expedia Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: HGSI) Started as Buy at Brean Murray.
Insight Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ: NSIT) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) Started as Outperform with $720 target at Credit Suisse.
Ryland Group Inc. (NYSE: RYL) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Sanderson Farms, Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFM) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

We have given previews using Thomson Reuters Consensus data, shown price ranges, trading ranges, shown a Thomson Reuters analyst consensus price target, and added in color on most companies.

MONDAY

Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) has estimates of $0.15 EPS and $175.58 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.14 EPS and $173.62 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $3.09, the 52-week trading range is $2.62 to $4.36 and the consensus price target from analysts is $4.18.  Chimera is not going to be a market mover, but it will highlight some of the issues facing the leveraged MBS REIT players.  Will it be able to maintain what was recently tallied up as being nearly 17% on an annualized basis.  Per its REIT status, Chimera is required to distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to shareholders.

Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) has estimates of $2.06 EPS and $9.32 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.97 EPS and $9.21 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $74.38, the 52-week trading range is $45.36 to $84.32 and the consensus price target from analysts is $88.22. Humana will follow three other healthcare insurers in earnings, and so far it is UnitedHealth which has hit highs and is so far winning the race this earnings season.

TUESDAY

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) has estimates of $0.85 EPS and $20.43 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.76 EPS and $18.33 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $30.74, the 52-week trading range is $26.50 to $38.02 and the consensus price target from analysts is $38.71. The saga continues for ADM.  With a $20 billion market cap this would still have to run 50% to challenge the old agriculture and energy highs seen in 2008.

Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) has estimates of $0.65 EPS and $1.01 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.69 EPS and $1.00 billion in revenues.  Shares are trading around $64.50, the 52-week trading range is $35.06 to $69.20 and the consensus price target from analysts is $67.52. Coach is one company that investors will use as a proxy for luxury or at least “above the middle of the pack” when it comes to previewing retail earnings that are about two weeks or three weeks out.  The purse and apparel accessories giant is actually worth a whopping $19 billion in market cap now.  Coach’s guidance could signal the trend of things to come in the higher-end and above the middle retail segment.

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) has estimates of $0.18 EPS and $270.74 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.21 EPS and $320.2 million in revenues.  Shares are trading around $3.75, the 52-week trading range is $3.56 to $6.44 and the consensus price target from analysts is $6.25. DryShips does not run the market and it does not even really influence other shippers.  The Greek aspect cannot be helping matters, but it is now in the midst of an acquisition after having been a serial capital raising company.  The concerns actually have this one close to 52-week lows and it is not unusual to see massive volume spikes when DryShips has news.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) Raised to Outperform as Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) Added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs.
Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA) Reiterated Buy as Value at Zacks.
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) Started as Neutral with $18 target at Credit Suisse.
Masco Corporation (NYSE: MAS) Maintained Underperform as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) Maintained Buy but Cut target to $12 at Gleacher & Co.
Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) Reiterated Outperform and $42 target at Credit Suisse.
Pepco Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POM) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT) Raised to Buy at S&P Equity Research (late Thursday).
Southern Company (NYSE: SO) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
VeriSign Inc. (NASDAQ: VRSN) Raised to Hold at S&P Equity Research (late Thursday).

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Richemont is a brand conglomerate, but in high-end products.  Its brands include  Cartier, Alfred Dunhill, Van Cleef & Arpels, Piaget and Montblanc.

Before getting too wrapped up in this near-2% move today, Tiffany is one of those corporate names that has been on a “private equity wish list” for quite some time.  During the recession, Warren Buffett invested in the company’s preferred shares through Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A).

Another focus is that trading volume is not even 1.4 million shares after the half-way point of the trading day. We have seen nothing at all that comes across as being highly unusual in options trading via huge call option volume.  Tiffany also recently hiked its dividend.

There have also been buyout rumors before.  It used to be thrown around that LVMH may want to play Pac-Man.  Any large private equity player might have an interest.  With a market capitalization of about $9.5 billion, lining up a premium buyout might not be too easy.  With shares at $74.15 and a 52-week range of $35.81 to $77.02, the stock has already hit new all-time highs this year.

Our take: All bark, no bite.  If there was real interest then Tiffany would be trading up massively.  In case you hear “another mis-named buyout” target, that might be Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH).  Coach has been one of the private equity wish lists in the past as well.  The problem that it is almost unrealistic with a $17+ billion buyback.  Both stocks also trade with well above their average multiples of earnings.

Whether you are buying Tiffany or Coach as investments, chances are now that you better be buying them because you want to own them for their long-term prospects.  This buyout chatter does not really coincide with any realistic scenarios for affordability.  The Doubting Thomas take would be that the time for a private equity group or a brand conglomerate to acquire Tiffany (and Coach) has come and gone.

JON C. OGG

(20 MAY – 26 MAY) Ticker

Weekly Price Change (%)

Close Price 26May11

Close Price 20May11

Market Cap ($Mil)

9.8

76.04

69.24

9694.0

8.0

5.91

5.47

17680.9

8.0

150.19

139.06

10736.0

7.4

50.66

47.18

46354.6

7.3

263.75

245.90

13844.5

7.2

296.61

276.60

12519.9

7.2

20.78

19.38

15979.1

7.1

72.55

67.76

30694.2

7.1

63.68

59.48

18696.7

6.4

15.04

14.13

1658.3

Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) has over 50 Japan stores and gets nearly one-fifth of its sales there.  The market may have already been in decline but Monday brought a 6.9% decline in the stock.  Shares are now down another 6% at $56.25 in pre-market trading versus a 52-week range of $35.81 to $65.76.

Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) also gets about one-fifth of its sales from Japan and it has closed some of its stores there.  Shares were down about 5.3% to $53.11 yesterday and shares are indicated down another 5.2% at $50.36 in pre-market trading.  Its 52-week trading range is $33.75 to $58.55.

Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) also has Japan exposure and shares fell 2.77% to $123.72 on Monday.  We have indications lower but no pre-market volume has yet been seen.

The old saying is that luxury actually holds up better than the middle-market in retail.  Apparently that isn’t true when there is a major earthquake followed by a potential nuclear disaster.

JON C. OGG

We tracked buybacks from Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP), GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME), Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD), Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP), MedcoHealth Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MHS), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Unum Group (NYSE: UNM), Altria Inc. (NYSE: MO), AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC), Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM), Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX), Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), and from Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC).  We have outlined some basics on each below.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) added to its prior buyout plan with some $5 billion this week.  Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) announced this week that it would buy back up to 40 million shares, which comes to about $375 million or so versus a market cap of $46 billion.  GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) also jumped into the buyback bandwagon and authorized some $500 million for buybacks over the next year and a half.  Not bad at all for a $3 billion market cap.  Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) committed some $600 million over an 18-month period versus a market cap of roughly $600 million.  When video game companies resort to share buybacks, does that sound like great growth?

This week came another plan from General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) after its board approved the repurchase of up to 10 million common shares.  That comes to about $750 million versus a $28 billion market cap.  Tupperware Brands Corporation (NYSE: TUP) reported this week that it was using up to $600 million to expand its prior buyback program.  That is massive in terms of scale if you consider its $3.3 billion market cap.  MedcoHealth Solutions Inc. (NYSE: MHS) added to its buyback plan and the authorization went to $3 billion.  Not bad for a $26 billion company.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) only utilized about 40% of its prior buyback plan, but this week it announced a buyback plan for up to 100 million shares.  That would come to about $3.6 billion or so versus a market cap of about $102 billion.  Unum Group (NYSE: UNM) reported with its earnings that it would buy back up to $1 billion in common stock versus a market cap of roughly $8 billion.

Late in January came announcements of $1 billion from Altria Inc. (NYSE: MO), a doubling in the total buybacks to some $4 billion from AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), and $1 billion from Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC).  Even Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) threw in up to $750 million for buybacks over the next couple of years.  Another buyback plan in late-January came from Quest Diagnostics Inc. (NYSE: DGX) for some $750 million.

Purses, belts, wallets, and even jewelry must translate to buyback.  In late-January came buyback announcements form Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF).  Coach set $1.5 billion versus a market cap of close to $16 billion, while Tiffany & Co. said it would resume share buybacks with some $402 million remaining.

Two weeks ago came the Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) announcement of a $10 billion buyback plan versus close to a $120 billion market cap.

The irony is that we did not even tally up the few dozen that were listed in the $50 to $250 million range in the recent days and weeks.  We tallied over $30 billion by the same method for December.  The buybacks continue…

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG