Cadence Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CADX) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) Started as Buy with $19 target at Goldman Sachs.
Harvest Energy (NYSE: HTE) Cut to Neutral at UBS.
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.
Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) Started as Hold, $66 target, at Auriga.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) Raised to Neutral (from Underweight) at HSBC.
United Rentals (NYSE: URI) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ: VRSK) Started as In-Line at Fox-Pitt; Started as Market Perform at KBW.

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JON C. OGG

Brocade Communications (NASDAQ: BRCD) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray; Cut to Hold at ThinkEquity; Cut to Hold at Lazard.
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) Cut to Underweight at Barclays.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Started as Hold at KeyBanc.
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) Started as Buy at Lazard.
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays.
Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) Started as Underweight at KeyBanc.
Quicksilver Resources Inc. (NYSE: KWK) Started as Buy at Lazard.
Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE: MBT) Raised to Buy at UBS.
NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) Raised to Positive at Susquehanna.
SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) put on positive credit watch at S&P late yesterday during trading hours.

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JON C. OGG

Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.
Investment Technology Group (NYSE: ITG) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG) ADR upgraded at both BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse.
MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR) Raised to Buy at Soleil.
SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
VVMware (NYSE: VMW) Cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
Zumiez (NYSE: ZUMZ) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

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JON C. OGG

Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) Cut to Neutral at SunTrust.
Coach (COH) Started as Neutral at UBS.
LDK Solar (LDK) Started as Underperform at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Synaptics (SYNA) Cut to Underperform at Jefferies.
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Started as Neutral at JPMorgan.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 13, 2009

BHP Billiton (BHP) Raised to Buy at UBS.
Coach (COH) Raised to Buy at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Raised to Outperform at William Blair.
Motorola (MOT) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
R-I-M (RIMM) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Companhia Vale do Rio (VALE) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

SPSS Inc (Nasdaq: SPSS) shares are up 41 percent after getting a $1.2 billion takeover offer from IBM.

United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) shares are falling in very active trade after it missed revenue expectations and said its outlook for overall steel demand remains uncertain.

Vical Inc. (Nasdaq: VICL) shares up strongly as one of the most active premarket issues after it received a direct investment.

Amgen Inc. (Nasdaq: AMGN) shares are seeing wishy-washy trading after earnings and a partnership.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ARIA) are among the most active premarket stocks, following positive preliminary clinical data.

Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) shares are down 8 percent in very active premarket trading after reporting a larger provisions for credit losses.

Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) shares are down more than 5 percent in the premarket on reporting earnings that were merely in line.

LaserCard Corp. (Nasdaq: LCRD) is among the biggest premarket percentage gainers after beating earnings expectations by 18 cents a share.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: CHKP) shares are rising in active premarket trade after beating EPS by 2 cents a share.

-The 24/7 Wall St. Team

• Amazon.com (AMZN) Raised to Outperform at Cowen.
• Coach (COH) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
• FedEx (FDX) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.
• Intrepid Potash (IPI) Started as Outperform at RBC.
• Nordstrom (JWN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
• Research in Motion (RIMM) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital Markets.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) Started as Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

Jon C. Ogg

Faced with those statistics,  what do you do if you’re a company like Coach that depends on a wealthy public ready to shell out $250-plus for its accessories?  You turn to Poppy, its lower-priced line of handbags, which officially debuts this week. If you can’t sell expensive totes to the wealthy, it only makes sense to broaden the potential market.

And that’s precisely what Coach has done. So far, pre-orders  are reportedly strong, and early mall uptake has been rapid. Anticipation of its success, along with strict inventory management, has aided Coach’s share ascent over the past three months.

Compare Coach’s approach to that of Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF), the luxury brand to which it is often compared. Tiffany appears to be trying to simply protect margins where it can, as it continues to see declines in same-store sales.

The comparison is admittedly unfair.  It’s much tougher to make big inventory and product changes when you’re in the diamond business. There’s simply no way for the company to revamp quickly to take advantage of market trends the way that Coach can.

But investors might not care about a fair comparison if Tiffany continues to face constrained demand, high input costs, and no easy way out. They’ll simply vote with their shares.

More may be voting “yea” for COH and a “nay” for TIF.

Mike Tarsala
June 24, 2009

The largest fifteen or twenty retailers will chop locations but not go out of business. They have the sales and balance sheets to make it through the next two or three years, unless the recession turns to a depression. But, they won’t be able to keep the doors of all their operations open.

These are some of the nation’s largest retailers and estimates of what they will have to do to cut their total numbers of outlets as revenues fall.

Sears (SHLD) owns K-Mart and Sears stores. In December, K-Mart reported relatively flat sales, but same-store sales for Sears were off almost 13%. If Sears wants to have positive earnings, it can’t carry that kind of baggage. The company has nearly 4,000 full-line and special item outlets. Sears has 337,000 employees worldwide. It is certainly possible that Sears would cut 200 or 300 locations which could mean the loss of 7,000 or more jobs.

Gap (GPS) turned in stunningly poor holiday results. Same-store sales were off 14% for December. The company cut earnings forecasts. The firm’s Old Navy brand was hit hard as it has been all year. Same-store sales at the unit were off 16%. Gap has 3,100 stores worldwide. Closing Old Navy is still a real option, especially if the retail environment gets worse. Old Navy accounts for a about a third of Gap’s sales. If it is closed 30,000 people could lose their jobs.

Macy’s (M) recently closed ten stores. For the November/December holiday season, same-store sales fell over 7%. Macy’s still has more than 340 stores and more than 175,000 employees. The retailer will probably need to cut another ten to twenty stores if the first quarter is worse than the holidays.

Nordstrom (JWN) has about as bad a December as any other large retailer. Same-store sales were down almost 11%. Nordstrom said it would not hit its earnings guidance. The firm has 166 stores and 55,000 workers. If same-store sales drop 15% this quarter, it is not hard imagining that twenty stores would close and 5,000 people could be laid off.

Abercrombie & Fitch (AFN) same-store sales were off 24% in December. If the number begins to run above 30%, Wall St. has to ask if the company is even viable. AFN has 1,000 stores and an extended bad period would certainly mean 100 or more of those would be shuttered.

Zale (ZLC) same-store sales dropped 22% in December. That drop was more extreme than November’s which was 13%. Zale trades at $3 and has lost 90% of its market cap over the last year. The stock trades at a level where a number of investors believe it will go bankrupt. That would put more than 1,000 stores and over 15,000 jobs at risk.

Tiffany (TIF) is having a harder time than many retailers because sales of luxury goods tend to be hit hard in a deep recession.  Fourth quarter domestic same-store sales are expected to be down as much as 35%. International sales are also expected to drop. The company has 184 stores almost 9,000 people. Could Tiffany have to cut stores and personnel by 15%? Definitely.

Signet Jewelers (SIG) had a same-store sales drop of almost 16% in the fourth quarter. Signet announced it would suspend its dividend to preserve cash. For the firm’s fiscal quarter which ended November 1, revenue fell 7% to $629 million. Signet had a modest operating loss of $14 million. The firm’s balance sheet is in relatively good shape. Signet has about 2,000 outlets operating under a variety of names. It has more than 17,000 employees. Right now, Signet might get by with a modest downsizing of 5% or 10%.

Coach (COH) recently dropped it profit outlook and said same-store sales for December were down 13%. The rich are not getting richer. But, the market has not entirely turned away from the company. Shares trade at almost $18, down from a 52-week high of just over $37. That may seem awful, but it the stock is not off as much as some others in the sector. Coach has over 500 stores and specialty outlets and 5,600 workers. Its finances are considered solid so it might get away with cutting 10% of its locations, or 50 outlets..

Best Buy (BBY) is big enough and financially strong enough to be out of harm’s way. Same-store sales for December dropped just over 6% and revenue ticked up a bit. With Circuit City in bankruptcy, Best Buy’s only real competition is from Wal-Mart (WMT). Best Buy might be the only retailer of size that does not cut anyone or close any stores.

Douglas A. McIntrye

The handbag and accessories maker lowered its Q4 quarterly guidance to $0.67 EPS, which is under estimates and under its priorguidance of $0.77 EPS.  It is also under the $0.69 reported in theprior year’s comparable period.  Sales were down 2% to $960 million andwere under prior targets of roughly $1.05 billion.

The same-store sales figures are pretty atrocious as well.  Those fellby 13% for the Q4 period in North America.  It is of little surprisethat Coach has decided not to offer guidance.

Shares closed down 3% at $20.90 in regular trading, and fell about 4% more to $19.98 in the after-hours session.  The 52-weektrading range is $13.19 to $37.64.  Two years ago this stock was north of$50.00.

This was a great success story for some time.  You just have towonder now if the company can retain its top status when the economyeventually recovers. Even at the close, Coach still has a market cap north of $6 billion.

Jon C. Ogg
January 8, 2009