Posts for Ticker ‘COP’

The More Focused, and More Opaque, Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A, BRK-B, BNI, UNP, NSC, GS, GE, TIF, HOG, WMT, COP, XOM, WFC, RSG, DOW, ETN, WBC, MCO, WLP, UNH, GSK, SNY, GCI, WPO)

This was an important week for investment guru and billionaire watchers to see which gurus were holding which stocks.  The full public equity holdings of Warren Buffett via Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) were particularly of note, particularly with those B shares under “BRK-B” soon to split and giving a chance for even the less astute ranks of Joe Public to own a piece of the Berkshire dream.  Obviously the huge change is via the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) buyout.  As part of this deal, Buffett is exiting Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and exiting Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) stakes of about $600 million and $100 million, respectively, to avoid duplication and internal competition.  The rail transport play now accounts for about one-quarter of the total Berkshire Hathaway entity upon closing. But the less obvious position in that Warren Buffett in 2009 has made it clear that there will be a simpler and probably less “stock-hound” version of Berkshire Hathaway ahead.

Buffett has gone higher up the food chain and is likely to be a creditor now inside or to large institutions.  We have seen this during the crisis.  Buffett negotiated a better deal for Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) than the US Government was able to get.  Buffett’s preferred stock in Goldman Sachs has a dividend of 10% and is callable at any time at a 10% premium; but Buffett also got warrants to purchase $5 billion of common stock with a strike price of $115.00 per share, exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now), and Buffett would effectively get to pocket $61 per share if he exercised those all today at the market (and with a $2.6 billion warrant profit alone).

The General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stake was listed only as 7.77 million shares of common stock (about $125 million now), the same as it has been for quarters.  Yet last year Buffett came to the rescue with a $3 billion of perpetual preferred stock in a private offering with a dividend of 10% and warrants to purchase $3 billion of common stock.  The preferred is callable after 3-years (2 years now) at a 10% premium; the warrants have a strike price of $22.25 and are exercisable for a five-year term (4 years now).
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Posted on: November 19, 2009 – 8:59 am in Activist Investor, Bonds, Buffett, Conglomerates, Dividend, Editor's Picks, Infrastructure, Large Cap Stocks, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Private Equity, Transports, Value Investing, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Q3-2009 Holdings A to F (BRK-A, AXP, BAC, BDX, BNI, KMX, KO, CMCSA, CDCO, COP, COST, XOM, ETN)

BuffettImage gates foundation Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) has shown its Q3-2009 holdings as of September 30, 2009.  We had already seen how his securities holdings were up on the books in the holdings with earnings.  There are also some portfolio changes that have taken place since the September 30 cut-off date.  These have been broken down into 3 groups of ‘A to F’ and ‘G to O’ and ‘P to Z’ so it is more concise and clear.  Here are Warren Buffett’s holdings and accompanying notes for the group ‘A ot F.’

  • American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, same as last quarter.
  • Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; same as last quarter.
  • Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) 1.2 million shares, same as last quarter.
  • Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) was reported as 76.77 million shares but frankly it does not really matter as BNSF is becoming part of Berkshire.
  • Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) 9 million shares is same as last quarter.
  • Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, still same as before.
  • Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, same as before.
  • Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, same as before.
  • ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) 57.43 million shares, DOWN FROM 62.485 million at the end of June.
  • Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 5.254 million shares, same as before.
  • Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is a NEW HOLDING of 1.276 million shares.

Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) was NOT LISTED ANY LONGER, so sold from holdings.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS G to O

BUFFETT HOLDINGS P to Z

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: November 16, 2009 – 4:33 pm in Activist Investor, Buffett, Buffett Holdings, Conglomerates, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Next Week’s Top 10 Earnings (VZ, APOL, VLO, V, WYNN, COP, FSLR, CME, XOM, PG)

NYSE Floor ImageThis week was the crest of 2009 third quarter earnings season.  We still have a flood of reports next week and picking a mere top ten earnings to watch was very unfair to many key stocks.  But the ten earnings we have flagged as the top ten for next week are Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME), ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG).  We have included Thomson Reuters consensus data for earnings and revenue estimates and added color on each where applicable.
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Posted on: October 23, 2009 – 1:21 pm in Alternative Energy, Calendar, Earnings, Oil & Gas, , , , , , , , , ,

ConocoPhillips Gets More Shareholder-Friendly (COP, XOM, CVX)

Conoco LogoConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is trying to further adopt shareholder-friendly strategies with a higher payout and lower expenses.  With as much as this stock has lagged some peers until recently, that should be of little surprise.  It was back in early March when we listed ConocoPhillips as one our picks in the energy sector which might double from their lows.  Shares were around $37 at the time and we noted that they would have to hit $68 for that double to hold true.  And now shares are up close to $49 and look as though that they want to challenge the $50 mark.

In order to generate more cash, the company cut its cap-ex budget for next year to about $11 billion for exploration and production and to replace reserves.  It will also sell what is said to be about $10 billion in assets.  To entice shareholders, it also lifted its quarterly dividend 6.4% to $0.50. This puts it above a 4% yield, which looks on the surface to be the highest of the major US-based integrated oil players such as Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM).  It also marks what appears to be the 7th year in a row to boost its dividend.

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Posted on: October 7, 2009 – 12:36 pm in Commodities, Dividend, Oil & Gas, Shareholder Issues, , ,

Conoco Issues Cautious Update, While Exxon CEO Calls for More Taxes (COP, CVX, XOM)

oil
Oil major ConocoPhillips Corp. (NYSE:COP) released its third quarter 2009 interim update this morning, and while the news was not altogether positive, the company’s share price is up nearly 2.5% in early trading on heavy volume. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) are not following suit, with both down less than 1%. Read More »

Posted on: October 2, 2009 – 12:00 pm in Oil & Gas, , ,

Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Q2-2009 Holdings A to F (BRK-A, AXP, BAC, BDX, BNI, KMX, KO, CMCSA, CDCO, COP, COST, ETN, CEG)

Buffett ImageBerkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) has shown its Q2-2009  holdings as of June 30, 2009.  There are some portfolio changes that have been seen here from the end of Q1 and we have broken these down into 3 groups of ‘A to F’ and  ‘G to O’ and ‘P to Z’ so these are easier to see on one page.  Here are Warren Buffett’s holdings and accompanying notes for the group ‘A ot F.’

  • American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, same as  before.
  • Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; same as last quarter.
  • Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) appears to b a new holding over last quarter according to our records.  Berkshire holds 1.2 million shares (listed in SEC filing as Beckton Dickson).
  • Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) 76.77 million shares; same as Q1 after the Q1 position was raised from Q4.
  • Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) 9 million shares is lower than the 12 million in Q1 and marks three straight quarters of declines.
  • Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, still has stayed the same as before.
  • Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, same as before.
  • Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, same as before.
  • ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) was listed as 62.485 million, which is officially lower than the Q1 period but we had already been told of cuts after that date so mostly the same.
  • Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 5.254 million shares, same as before.
  • Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) 3.2 million shares; looks like new holding but may have been missed before.
  • Constellation Energy Group (NYSE: CEG) appears to be completely sold off now.,but this was already being cut.

BUFFETT HOLDINGS G o O

BUFFETT HOLDINGS P to Z

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, key analyst calls, and more.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 14, 2009

Posted on: August 14, 2009 – 4:45 pm in Buffett, Buffett Holdings, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Berkshire Hathaway Helped By Derivatives Gains Of $1.53 Billion

Buffett Spit-Shines Berkshire Earnings (BRK-A, BRK-B, COP, GS)

Buffett ImageBerkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A, BRK-B) has just released earnings for its second quarter.  Warren Buffett and friends reported earnings of some $3.3 billion, or $2,123.00 EPS, and revenues were $29.6 billion. Non-GAAP earnings not including gains were $1,147.00 EPS.  Thomson Reuters had a figure of $1,238.00 for the “A” shares, but we’d make note that this is based on a handful of estimates.

During the second quarter of 2009, the company’s book value increased to $73,806 per Class A equivalent share, an increase of 4.6% from year end and 11.4% from the end of the first quarter. In addition, to its  net worth of $114.5 billion, insurance float (the net funds held pursuant to insurance contracts that we can be invested for Berkshire’s benefit) increased from year end by about $3 billion to approximately $61 billion at June 30, 2009.

Berkshire benefited from gains on its derivatives portfolio of $1.53 billion.

Buffett was being sharply criticized earlier this year for falling off the performance rocker, but shares have done well.  They are up over 50% off of the 52-week lows.  Buffett shares fell to $90,100.00 the trading day after his last earnings report in May.  The stock is up right at 20% since then.

Buffett had already tried to tone down expectations when he was calling for a second stimulus package, and we think he was talking down his economically sensitive operating earnings from his wholly owned subsidiary acquisitions.

But Buffett had an amazing quarter.  As we noted a week ago, many of his top non-financial holdings have doubled and more from the lows.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) was noted last quarter as being a source of funds used to lock in losses.

Berkshire’s insurance operations have been believed to be crimped by investment losses and there is still an issue with some of the derivatives exposure that many feel had gotten too high.

Buffett’s bet in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) was criticized for a while when the financial firms were on the ropes, but Buffett is getting the last laugh now with the 10% rate and then with the warrants.

If you like to have regular Buffett updates, you can join our open email distribution list to hear everything Buffett and to hear about mergers, IPOs, secondary offerings, key analyst calls, and major media events.

JON C. OGG
AUGUST 7, 2009

Posted on: August 7, 2009 – 5:43 pm in Buffett, Conglomerates, Earnings, , ,

ConocoPhillips Looking Better or Less-Bad (COP)

conoco-logo1ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has reported earnings.  The Buffett-oil trade posted earnings of $1.298 billion, or $0.87 EPS. As oil price are down significantly over last year, this compares with earnings of $5.439 billion or $3.50 EPS. Revenues were reported for this last quarter as $35.4 billion, down from $71.4 billion for the year-ago period.  This is still better than the Thomson Reuters estimate of $0.85 EPS.  There were less than a handful of estimates for revenues to come in around $39 billion.  If you look through the individual metrics of the business, this is actually not as bad as it could have been.

Posted on: July 29, 2009 – 8:57 am in Earnings, Oil & Gas,

Bracing For Energy Giants’ Earnings (COP, APA, XOM, FSLR, CVX)

Money Stack ImageWe have already seen earnings from Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) and BP Plc (NYSE: BP), and these figures are acting to keep a lid on oil stocks.  There is, of course, the notion of commodity price changes each day, but a key idea here is just how much the CFTC review is going to act against speculators in the near future in the energy and commodity markets.  ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA), ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) are all on deck this week for earning.  We have compiled basic expectations and technical data on what to watch for in these earnings.
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Posted on: July 28, 2009 – 12:55 pm in Alternative Energy, Earnings, Green Biz, Oil & Gas, , , , ,

More Stocks For Buffett To Unload (BRK-A, MCO, COP, CEG, GCI, WPO, MTB, WBC)

Buffett ImageHow frequently has Warren Buffett  been bashed by the media over Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s  (NYSE: BRK-A) lackluster performance ?  What was interesting to see is his stake being lowered in Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO).  The only thing that was surprising to us was that it took the Oracle of Omaha this long to begin selling these shares.  Because Buffett is such a large stakeholder, we do expect that he’ll always hold some shares.  Conversely, we think he’ll continue to lighten up his stake in Moody’s.  Along those lines, we reviewed Buffett’s holdings and found several more stocks that he might want to consider selling some or all of his stake.

Some of these positions could include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE: CEG), Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC).  There are others, such as his stakes in drug and health care sectors that could have been mentioned, but those big directional bets may have to wait until after health care reform is enacted.   As you will see, we listed the reasons that Buffett should or could cut the stakes.
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Posted on: July 27, 2009 – 11:48 am in Activist Investor, Buffett, Insider Activity, Value Investing, , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 7/24/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT. Bloomberg

newspaperReuters: Microsoft’s (MSFT) results and forecast were weak.

Reuters:   CIT (CIT) may sell its aviation finance business.

Reuters:   Fatigue at the Fed is leading to questions about its expanded role.

Reuters:   Twitter will pitch add-on tools to businesses.

Reuters:   Vodafone (VOD) stuck to its full-year forecast.

Reuters:   Amex (AXP) and Capital One (COP) had large cars losses. Read More »

Posted on: July 24, 2009 – 2:54 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Analyst Downgrades (COP, EXBD, GET, NSR, PSA, GOLD)

These are the top pre-market analyst downgrades or cautious research calls we have seen from Wall Street this Thursday morning:

Conoco Philips (COP) Started as Sell at Societe Generale.
Corporate Executive Board (EXBD) Cut to Underperform at Baird.
Gaylord Entertainment Co. (GET) Cut to Underperform at FBR.
Neustar (NSR) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Public Storage (PSA) Started as Underperform at KBW.
Rangold Resources (GOLD) Cut to Hold at Citigroup.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: July 9, 2009 – 6:40 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , ,

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (BHP, BPI, CAG, COP, ETFC, FDX, MRVL, RTP, SONC, SBUX)

These are the top ten early bird analyst upgrades and downgrades from Wall Street early this Tuesday morning with more than two hours until the market opens.

BHP Billiton (BHP) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Bridgepoint Education (BPI) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.
ConAgra (CAG) Raised to Buy at UBS.
ConocoPhillips (COP) Raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
E*TRADE (ETFC) Raised to Outperform at FBR.
FedEx (FDX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
Rio Tinto (RTP) Raised to Buy at ING.
Sonic (SONC) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer.
Starbucks (SBUX) Raised to Outperform at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
June 23, 2009

Posted on: June 23, 2009 – 6:25 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 6/17/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Obama proposed sweeping reform for financial industry.

Reuters:    A number of large banks repaid TARP. (JPM)(GS)(BBT)(COP)(STT)(AXP)(USB)

Reuters:   Consumer prices show inflation is in check.

Reuters:   China could still be a big buyer of US debt.

Reuters:   NYSE will create a derivatives clearing house. Read More »

Posted on: June 18, 2009 – 3:07 am in Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Oil Prices And The Illusion Of New Inflation

oilIt has become commonplace among analysts and oil traders to fear that crude prices are up so much that inflation will have to return the market. A recent piece from Reuters reinforces that sentiment.

But, inflation is based on the ability of businesses and consumers to continue to buy what they buy now and take on spending more on petrochemicals, oil, diesel, and gas. Read More »

Posted on: June 15, 2009 – 3:46 am in Economy, Oil & Gas, , ,

At $70 Oil, Major Oil Stocks Still Look Cheap (COP, XOM, CVX, MUR, PBR, PTR, VLO)

oil-well-image1We keep getting asked a single question from readers and from our own industry and professional contacts: Are Oil Stocks Cheap? There is a very simple answer in today’s markets: Oil stocks look very cheap (if oil is going to stay anywhere near $70.00).  Some of these are our top picks and some are incidental, but the reviewed stocks are ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).  By our measure, some of these major integrated oil and exploration and production stocks are undervalued by 10% to 25%.  Some may be even more undervalued than that in the large-cap and super-cap arenas.

Answering any question of whether a stock or any instrument is cheap does actually require a crystal ball that sees the future for it to be certain beyond a snapshot in time, but if oil stays around these levels then many of the major oil stocks still seem to have more room to run up.  Dare we call this value investing?  This is not a review of every single sector in the oil patch, as we are reviewing these stocks  in groups.
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Posted on: June 12, 2009 – 5:15 am in ADR, Buffett, Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas, Value Investing, , , , , , ,

Exxon May Increase Alaska-US Pipeline Efforts (XOM, TRP, COP, BP)

Exxon LogoExxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) may be getting deeper and deeper in Alaska via a monster pipeline project.  A report from the Houston Chronicle said the oil giant is in discussions with TransCanada Corp. (NYSE: TRP) to assist in building a long pipeline that will transport natural gas from the North Slope of Alaska through Canada to the United States market.  This could have some rather large implications for a project being run by ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and BP plc (NYSE: BP).
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Posted on: June 11, 2009 – 9:25 am in Oil & Gas, , , ,

Media Digest 6/11/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   Fiat closed its deal for control of Chrysler.

Reuters:   California may be hit by an economic “meltdown.”

Reuters:   May foreclosures were third highest month ever recorded.

Reuters:   The US named a “pay czar” to track financial compensation.

Reuters:   May retail sales are forecast to be up .5% due to gas.

Reuters:   The US may crack down on derivatives trading. Read More »

Posted on: June 11, 2009 – 2:59 am in Autos, Banking, Consumer Electronics, Financial Stocks, Housing, Management Change, Oil & Gas, Press Digest, Technology Companies, Turnarounds, Wireless, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Theory The Low Demand Will Moderate Oil Prices Dies

oilThe theory that the recession would mitigate the price of oil had all the trappings of being true. Consumption in the US, UK, EU, and Japan happen to be down substantially. Industrial production has been dropping at a near-record pace. Consumer spending, especially on gas, has dropped. Fewer people are driving and those who are driving drive fewer miles. Read More »

Posted on: June 10, 2009 – 4:40 am in Oil & Gas, , , ,

Oil Will Rise Much Further Says Industry CEO

oilShell is the largest oil company in Europe and one of the biggest in the world. Its assessment of the industry and the direction of the price of oil is probably as accurate as any. The firm sees crude prices rocketing up.

Bloomberg reports that the CEO of Shell believes that “The economy will turn, demand will come back and the overcapacity of supply will disappear.” Read More »

Posted on: June 8, 2009 – 4:42 am in Oil & Gas, , , ,