24/7 Wall St. » COP

Big Changes to Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Stock Holdings, A to Z

Administrator — Tue, 15 May 2012 21:05:01 +0000

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B, BRK-A) and Warren Buffett have just released their most recent U.S.-listed equity holdings for the Berkshire Hathaway empire. This cut off date is as of March 31, 2012 and Mr. Buffett has already said that he was buying some shares since the end of the quarter on weakness.

Also, keep in mind that portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler are still new and those new positions of under $200 million $300 million are likely tied to them.

24/7 Wall St. has gone through line by line of each position to see which stocks have been bought and sold as new positions, as well as having added in whether or not the number of shares grew or shrank on each since the prior quarter. We had added some color in on some of the positions if applicable.

Be advised that the number of subsidiaries that this filing covers is 14 entities rather than 18 entities in the prior quarter. There is also a note in the 13F filing showing that the SEC has granted “Confidential Treatment” on some Berkshire stock holdings and that likely suggests that Buffett is still acquiring a position he does not want the public to know about yet. This filing does not signal the half-dozen or more European shares that Buffett said he bought so that remains an outstanding issue as well.

The value of the stock portfolio was $66,151,587,000 at the end of 2011 and this was listed as $75,300,250,000 at the end of March 2012.

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) was over 151.6 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) is now 5.6 million shares, HIGHER THAN the 1,793,915 shares last quarter.

CVS Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) is the SAME SIZE at 7.106 million shares after having been a new holding in a recent quarter and having been raised one quarter ago.

Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) was right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, roughly the SAME AS BEFORE but it is still lower than previous quarters in past reports.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME AS last quarter after having lowered it before.

Da Vita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) is now 6 million shares worth $541 million and that LARGER THAN BEFORE after having been a new position of 2.684 million shares.

DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) is a LARGER POSITION listed at 22.999 million worth over $1.13 billion. This one had been 20.348 million shares worth $870 million one quarter earlier and it had been a new position just two quarters ago at 4.249 million shares.

Filed under: Activist Investor, Buffett, Buffett Holdings, Compensation, Conglomerates, Insider Activity, Mutual Funds Tagged: AXP, BK, BRK-A, BRK-B, CDCO, COP, COST, CVS, DG, DVA, featured, GCI, GE, GM, GSK, IBM, INTC, IR, JNJ, KFT, KO, LMCA, MA, MCO, MTB, PG, SNY, TMK, UPS, USB, USG, V, VIA, VRSK, WFC, WMT, WPO

Fitch Reviews Oil & Gas Operations and Reserves

Paul Ausick — Fri, 11 May 2012 17:34:44 +0000

Fitch Ratings is out with a statistical review of operational metrics at a number of oil & gas companies. The review notes a handful of emerging trends:

Finding, development, and acquisition (FD&A) costs are rising.
Reserves are growing.
Proved, developed reserves are shrinking.
Reserve additions are not well matched to production.
Liquids are in every E&P company’s sights.

To even out the changes a bit, Fitch computed a three-year average as well as a year-over-year average change.

FD&A costs for the entire group of companies fell by an average of -14% over three years, but the variation was large. The three-year average cost of a barrel in 2008 was $20.76, falling to $16.46 in 2011. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) posted an increase of 45% in FD&A costs over three years, while Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) lowered its costs by -41% and ConocoPhillips lowered its costs by -36%. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) showed a 1% increase in FD&A costs over the three years and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) paid 60% more per barrel in FD&A costs. FD&A costs for SandRidge Energy Corp. (NYSE: SD) rose 42%, while the largest drop in costs came at Range Resources Inc. (NYSE: RRC), at -65%.

Total proved reserves posted median gains of 4.8% year-over-year and 24% since 2008. Some of the largest reserves gains came from additions of natural gas, which drove up the reserve equivalent barrels count, but weighed on valuations due to the low prices for natural gas. Among the bigger companies, Exxon increased its reserves by 14.1% over the three-year span, while Chevron’s reserves grew by just 0.4% and Conoco’s fell by -18%.

Proved, developed reserves declined for all the companies in the sample by -3.5% over the three-year period. Fitch defined proved, developed reserves as “proved reserves that can be expected to be recovered through existing wells with existing equipment and operating methods, or through relatively minor expenditures.” Essentially that means that the companies are increasing production from existing wells and driving down the amount that’s left to get out of a producing well. As a percentage of total reserves, proved, developed reserves rose the most at Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), a total of 8% in the three-year period. Proved, developed reserves fell the most at Plains Exploration & Production Co. (NYSE: PXP), a total of -16.4%.

The mismatch between production and reserves replacement is described as “lumpy” by Fitch. The problem is mainly one of timing. A project with a long startup cycle, like Chevron’s liquefied natural gas project offshore of Australia, delays reserves booking well past the time the company spent billions of dollars to develop the project. This effect will become a bigger issue as new projects are developed in ultra-deepwater and other difficult environments by smaller companies.

Finally, the push to develop liquids production has been well-documented over the past couple of years. With natural gas prices near historic lows, liquids development is critically important to companies that once focussed almost exclusively on dry natural gas. The largest three-year average gain in liquids reserves was 40% at SandRidge, followed by 12% gains at Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) and Newfield Exploration Co. (NYSE: NFX). Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) grew its liquids reserves by 11% over the three years.

Fitch notes that what it calls ‘efficiency’ — which is essentially the sum of all the factors it looked at in this operational review — “helps determine the relative credit quality and competitiveness of a firm when indexed against its peers … [B]eing a low-cost, efficient producer remains a key credit protection in the event of lower oil prices.”

The full report from FitchRatings is available here.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Oil & Gas, Research Tagged: CHK, COP, CVX, HES, MRO, NFX, OXY, PXD, PXP, RRC, SD, XOM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (AIG, COP, HSY, PSX, DMD, AOL, AGU, DTG, M, MPEL, TM, SODA, AMCX, MT, ESRX, MCP, JWN, NUAN, HNR, KSS, PEIX, CPWM, AMRS, ACI)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 09 May 2012 20:06:42 +0000

The major US stock indexes opened sharply lower again this morning as investors consider Greece’s commitment to the austerity measures it had previously agreed to. Renegotiating the deal seems out of the question (more coverage here) and there is even the threat that the EU will not pay the first tranche of the bailout deal when it is due tomorrow (more coverage here). US oil inventories rose last week, putting more pressure on prices today (more coverage here).The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.43% at 80.077. The GSCI commodity index is down -0.5% at 648.60, with commodities mixed on the stronger dollar. WTI crude oil closed down -0.5% at $96.71/barrel and Brent crude trades up 0.02% at $112.75/barrel. Gold settled down -0.6% today, at $1,594.20/ounce, the yellow metal’s first sub-$1,600/ounce closing since December.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 97 points to 12,835.44 (-0.75%), the NASDAQ fell more than11 points (-0.39%) to 2,934.71, and the S&P 500 fell 0.67% or more than 9 points to 1,354.61.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) resumed as ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse; The Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) raised to ‘buy’ at Argus; Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) started as ‘outperform’ at Credit Suisse; and Demand Media Inc. (NYSE: DMD) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) is up 3.8% at $26.55; Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) is down -2.2% at $82.69 (more coverage here); Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: DTG) is up 0.2% at $80.68; Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is down -3.6% at $38.07 (more coverage here); Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL) is down -0.2% at $13.96; Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is up 3.1% at $80.58; and SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) is up 28% at $37.35.

On Wednesday we are scheduled to get earnings from AMC Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: AMCX), ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT), Express Scripts Holding Co. (NASDAQ: ESRX), Molycorp Inc. (NYSE: MCP); Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN); Nuance Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: NUAN); Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: HNR); Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS); and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX).

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Cost Plus Inc. (NASDAQ: CPWM) is up 21.9% at $21.92 after posting a new 52-week high earlier today. The company is being acquired by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) for $495 million.

Amyris Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRS) is down -21.7% at $1.98 after posting a new 52-week low of $1.89 earlier today. The biofuels and biotech company posted much higher-than-expected shortfalls in both EPS and revenues.

Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) is up 10.1% at $8.37. The coal miner had no news today, but investors are piling in at a very low price. Volume today topped 25 million shares, more than double Arch’s daily average.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Minneapolis Fed President Naryana Kocherlakota are giving speeches. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – International trade report
8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
1:00 p.m. – 30-year note auction
2:00 p.m. – Treasury budget
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: General Tagged: ACI, AGU, AIG, AMCX, AMRS, AOL, BBBY, COP, CPWM, DMD, DTG, ESRX, HNR, HSY, JWN, KSS, M, MCP, MPEL, MT, NUAN, PEIX, PSX, SODA, TM

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AIG, ADI, ARNA, COP, DMD, DOW, FOSL, HSY, JIVE, MRVL, MELI, PSX, QIHU, UBNT, YOKU)

Administrator — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:24:41 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls this Wednesday.

American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs.

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) Raised to Outperform at BMO.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Resumed as Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE: DMD) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.

The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) Raised to Buy at Argus.

Jive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: JIVE) Started as Hold at Needham

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL) Cut to Neutral at UBS.

Mercadolibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James.

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd (NYSE: QIHU) Started as Buy at ThinkEquity.

Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: UBNT) Started as Outperform at Wedbush (late Tuesday call).

Youku Inc. (NYSE: YOKU) Started as Hold at ThinkEquity.

If you enjoyed the top analyst upgrades and downgrades, you can join our free email newsletter that includes analyst summaries each morning sent right to your inbox. We also cover top issues such as IPOs, special financial exclusives, mergers and more. Sign up in the box below.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: ADI, AIG, ARNA, COP, DMD, DOW, FOSL, HSY, JIVE, MELI, MRVL, PSX, QIHU, UBNT, YOKU

$100/barrel Crude Good for OPEC, Not So Good for Supermajors (XOM, CVX, COP, TOT, BP, BX)

Paul Ausick — Thu, 03 May 2012 12:01:52 +0000

At an energy conference in Paris today, the secretary general of OPEC, Abdalla Salem el-Badri, said that the cartel is “not happy” with crude oil prices in the $110-$130/barrel range and that OPEC is trying to bring the price down. OPEC’s target price, according to el-Badri, is $100/barrel, “which is good for producers and consumers.”

But if prices fall that low, the big integrated oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Total SA (NYSE: TOT), and BP plc (NYSE: BP) are going to be pinched. Exxon, for example, has based its 2012 budget on an average Brent crude price of $111/barrel. The company’s average production cost for a barrel of oil in 2011 was just under $101/barrel. Chevron’s average production cost for a barrel of liquids was nearly $103/barrel in 2011.

Bloomberg today cites Byron Wien of The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) with a forecast that crude prices will drop this year. Production is up in the Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US, which should lead to lower prices. Bloomberg’s survey of 30 analysts puts a median price of $115.50/barrel on Brent for this quarter, but 6 of the analysts predicted prices at or below $100/barrel.

The fear premium that pushed Brent prices to more than $125/barrel earlier this year is being wrung out of the price now as the possibility recedes of a military confrontation with Iran. Demand in the developed world is falling, and China, the world’s largest consumer of crude after the US, has slowed both its economy and its oil imports.

These two factors are combining to push crude prices down at a pretty good rate. But a price of $100/barrel would mean that Exxon and Chevron would lose money on every barrel they produce. A $100/barrel price would also mean that all the supermajors would very likely have to scale back their plans for capex spending, which would significantly reduce exploration and future supply. That in turn would likely produce a supply shortfall which could easily cause a spike in crude prices if and when demand picks up.

It’s often said that the best cure for high prices is high prices. OPEC may get its target price, but that won’t cure the underlying cause for high crude prices. The stuff is scarce, even when it seems that there’s a lot of it available.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Commodities, Economy, Oil & Gas Tagged: BP, COP, CVX, TOT, XOM

24/7 Wall St. Closing Bell (CHK, COP, RSH, STM, AIZ, ABX, MRO, MA, AGN, AUY, TWX, CLX, RDC, RRD, MSO, IACI, FSLR, DSX, COCO, APA, OWW, WNR, CMCSA, SVNT)

Paul Ausick — Wed, 02 May 2012 20:09:45 +0000

The major US stock indexes opened lower this morning following dismal reports from Europe on manufacturing (our coverage here) and unemployment (more coverage here). The ADP report on US unemployment provided more gloomy news ahead of Friday’s official unemployment numbers (more coverage here). The US EIA petroleum inventory report helped push oil prices down (more coverage here), but the weak economic news ruled the day. Only the Nasdaq index has managed to pull into positive territory at all today, and that by less than 0.2% about an hour before closing. The US dollar index rose today, now up 0.39% at 79.130. The GSCI commodity index is up fractionally at 687.61, with commodities mostly lower on the rising dollar. Chicago wheat fell more than -4.5% to post the biggest loss of the day. WTI crude oil closed down -0.9% at $105.22/barrel, and Brent crude trades down -1.23% at $1118.19/barrel. Gold settled down -0.5% today, at $1,654.00/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down nearly 11 points to 13,268.65 (-0.08%), the NASDAQ rose more than 9 points (0.31%) to 3,059.85, and the S&P 500 fell -0.25% or more than 3 points to 1,402.31.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘neutral’ at R.W. Baird; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML and started as ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan; RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) raised to ‘buy’ at Auriga; STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) raised to ‘buy’ at Goldman Sachs and raised to ‘neutral’ at Citigroup; and Assurant Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) cut to ‘underperform’ at BofA/ML.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is down -2.8% at $39.30 (more coverage here); Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) is down -4.4% at $28.85; Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is down -0.8% at $452.14; Allergan Inc. (NYSE: AGN) is down -4.3% at $92.29; Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is down -2.6% at $14.36; Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is down -1.6% at $37.30; The Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) is down -3.3% at $67.74; Rowan Companies Inc. (NYSE: RDC) is up 1.3% at $34.97; R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (NASDAQ: RRD) is down -7% at $11.79; Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO) is down -1.2% at $3.41; and IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) is up 3.3% at $50.34 after posting a new 52-week high of $52.77 earlier today.

Tomorrow we get earnings from First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX), Corinthian Colleges Inc. (NASDAQ: COCO), Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA), Orbitz Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: OWW), and Western Refining Inc. (NYSE: WNR) among many others.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Chesapeake Energy is down -13.5% at $16.95 after posting a new 52-week low of $15.86 earlier today. The natural gas producer reported weak results and more troubles for CEO Aubrey McClendon. More coverage here.

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is down -1% at $30.29. The cable company reported good earnings this morning. More coverage here.

Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) is down -18.8% at $1.51. An analyst has said that the company insolvent. More coverage here.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are speaking at a conference. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

7:30 a.m. – Challenger job cut report
8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
8:30 a.m. – Productivity and costs report
10:00 a.m. – ISM non-manufacturing index
10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
4:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve balance sheet and money supply

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: ABX, AGN, AIZ, APA, AUY, CHK, CLX, CMCSA, COCO, COP, DSX, FSLR, IACI, MA, MRO, MSO, OWW, RDC, RRD, RSH, STM, SVNT, TWX, WNR

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (AIZ, CERN, CHK, LFC, COP, FLEX, GNW, HLF, RSH, STM, TEX)

Administrator — Wed, 02 May 2012 12:10:29 +0000

These are some of the top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen in Wall Street research calls this Wednesday.

Assurant Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML.

Cerner Corporation (NASDAQ: CERN) named as Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) Cut to Neutral at R.W. Baird.

China Life Insurance (NYSE: LFC) named Bear of the Day at Zacks.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Cut to Underperform at BofA/ML; Started as Overweight at JPMorgan.

Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW) Raised to Neutral at BofA/ML.

Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) Raised to Buy at Auriga.

RadioShack (NYSE: RSH) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE: STM) Raised to Buy at Goldman Sachs; Raised to Neutral at Citigroup.

Terex Corporation (NYSE: TEX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.

JON C. OGG

Filed under: Analyst Calls Tagged: AIZ, CERN, CHK, COP, FLEX, GNW, HLF, LFC, RSH, STM, TEX

Does Delta Make Sense as an Oil Refiner?

Paul Ausick — Tue, 01 May 2012 12:04:50 +0000

A deal that first made it into public view less than a month ago has now been completed. Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL), through its wholly-owned Monroe Energy LLC subsidiary, has acquired the 185,000-barrel/day Trainer, Pennsylvania, refinery from Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), the refining company spin-off from ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) that officially begins trading today.

Delta will pay $150 million for the refinery and expects to spend another $100 million to boost the plant’s capacity to make jet fuel, which is the reason Delta bought the refinery in the first place. The deal follows yesterday’s $5.3 billion acquisition by Energy Transfer Partners L.P. (NYSE: ETP) of downstream company Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN).

A couple of interesting questions follow Delta’s entry into the refining business. First, will other airlines follow? United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL), US Airways Group Inc. (NYSE: LCC), and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV), like other large carriers, follow a hedging strategy that tries to even out the ups-and-downs of crude prices. When it works, as it did for Southwest in 2006 and 2007, management looks like geniuses and the airlines makes a ton of profit. When it doesn’t work, as it didn’t for Southwest a few years later, the less said the better.

The only reason to buy a refinery is to mitigate price risk on crude oil. Delta claims the cost of the refinery is equivalent to the price it would pay for one widebody jet. The company expects to save twice that much annually on fuel costs going forward. Before United and the other carriers jump into the refining business they will want to see if Delta can actually realize its projected savings.

Which brings us to the second question: how does Delta expect to mitigate crude oil price risk? When the possible refinery acquisition first became known, there were reports that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) would take on the crude oil trading that would be needed to supply the refinery. As announced today:

[Delta subsidiary] Monroe is partnering with leading energy companies to supply crude oil and receive jet fuel in exchange for Trainer’s non-jet fuel outputs. Under a three-year agreement, BP will supply the crude oil to be refined at the facility. Monroe Energy will exchange gasoline and other refined products from Trainer for jet fuel from Phillips 66 and BP elsewhere in the country through multi-year agreements.

The “leading energy companies” are ConocoPhillips and BP plc (NYSE: BP). If BP is supplying the crude, the price will be set at or very near Brent crude prices. Jet fuel is generally more expensive than gasoline and other refined products. As Brent prices rise, jet fuel prices will also rise and probably rise faster than gasoline or diesel prices. Thus, Monroe/Delta will be trading lower-priced products for a higher-priced product. No savings there.

The only way for Delta to make sure it saves money is to source its crude more cheaply. In the US, that means getting crude from North Dakota’s Bakken field to the East Coast. There’s no pipeline (yet) to do that. Surely the lack of cheap crude is why JPMorgan is no longer in the picture. The proposed sale of Sunoco’s 335,000-barrel/day Philadelphia refinery to The Carlyle Group will not be concluded if the private equity firm cannot find a source of cheaper crude.

Delta apparently believes that by sourcing crude from BP the airlines has insulated itself from crude price risk. Not having seen details of the contract it’s hard to say. But oil companies are not charitable organizations and BP won’t have made any big concession on price.

Shares of Delta are up about 2.2% in the pre-market at $11.20 in a 52-week range of $6.21-$11.60. A new annual high is certainly within reach today.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Airlines, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas Tagged: BP, COP, DAL, ETP, featured, JPM, LCC, LUV, PSX, SUN, UAL

Chevron Follows Conoco, Exxon on Production Declines (CVX, COP, XOM)

Paul Ausick — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 14:02:26 +0000

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is the last of the big three US integrated oil companies to report first quarter earnings, and the first to show a profit gain compared with the same period last year. Both ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) earlier reported a -3% and a -11% profit decline, respectively. Chevron’s EPS rose 4.2% to $3.27, a penny better than the consensus estimate, on revenue of $60.71 billion, far below the consensus estimate of $72.42 billion.

Chevron said that net oil-equivalent production fell -6% to 651,000 barrels/day in its US upstream segment. The liquids portion of production fell -5% to 456,000 barrels/day and net natural gas production fell -8% to 1.17 billion cubic feet/day. The average sales price for crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) rose from $89/barrel a year ago to $102/barrel. Natural gas prices fell from $4.04/thousand cubic feet a year ago to $2.48/thousand cubic feet this year.

Internationally, Chevron’s production fell -86,000 barrels/day to 1.98 million barrels/day of oil equivalent production. Crude oil and NGL prices rose from $95/barrel a year ago to $110/barrel this year, and natural gas prices also rose from $5.03/thousand cubic feet to $5.88 this year. Net liquids production fell -6% to 1.34 million barrels/day and natural gas production rose 1% to 3.85 billion cubic feet/day.

US refining profits rose 3.8% to $459 million and refinery input rose 47,000 barrels/day to 926,000. Product sales fell 41,000 barrels/day due to lower fuel oil and gasoline sales. International refining profits nearly doubled to $345 million, mostly due to the sale of the Chevron’s Spanish fuels and finished lubricants business. International refinery inputs fell by -253,000 barrels/day due to the sale of the company’s Pembroke refinery, and product sales fell by -15%. Excluding the impact of asset sales, international refining sales fell -2%.

Higher realized prices for crude oil made up for lower production. Chevron, unlike Conoco and Exxon, was able to tease out a profit on the strength of its international natural gas sales. Refining profits in the US couldn’t overcome international refining losses, but Chevron has made no noise about dumping its refining business. At least not yet.

Chevron’s shares are down -0.1% at $106.10 in the first half-hour of trading this morning. The stock’s 52-week range is $86.68-$112.28.

Paul Ausick

Filed under: Earnings, International Markets, Oil & Gas Tagged: COP, CVX, XOM

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Paul Ausick — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 20:06:31 +0000

Markets opened a few ticks lower this morning after a poor report on new claims for unemployment benefits in the US (our coverage here). The report that pending home sales jumped 4.1% lit a fire under investors and pushed equities higher (our coverage here). The EIA report on natural gas supplies held gas prices higher although they’ve dropped back by late afternoon (our coverage here). Yields on 7-year US Treasury notes were at a record low following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s clarification of what “exceptionally low” interest rates mean (our coverage here). The US dollar index fell today, now down -0.17% at 78.932. The GSCI commodity index is up 0.04% at 677.57, with commodities mixed on the slightly weaker dollar. WTI crude oil closed up 0.4% at $104.55/barrel, and Brent crude trades up 0.65% at $119.89/barrel. Gold settled up 1.1% today, at $1,660.50/ounce.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up nearly 114 points to 13,204.70 (0.87%), the NASDAQ rose nearly 21 points (0.69%) to 3,050.61, and the S&P 500 rose 0.67% or more than 9 points to 1,399.99.

There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) cut to ‘equal-weight’ at Morgan Stanley; ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB) cut to ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan; Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) raised to ‘overweight’ at Barclays; ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) raised to ‘neutral’ at Macquarie; and Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) maintained as ‘hold’ at Argus.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have led to some price changes as of the last half hour of trading today: Alcatel-Lucent S.A. (NYSE: ALU) is down -16.9% at $19.71 (our coverage here); Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO) is up 0.9% at $31.96 (our story here); Pepsico (NYSE: PEP) is down -0.3% at $66.44 (our story here); Tellabs Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) is down -5.1% at $3.83 (our coverage here); Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is down -0.8% at $86.13 (our coverage here); Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) is down -8.4% at $45.22; Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is down -1.7% at $33.72; Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is down -2.6% at $65.69; JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) is down -0.1% at $4.64; Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) is up 9.4% at $13.87; Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. (NYSE: MJN) is up XX% at $XX; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) is up 4% at $86.38 after posting a new 52-week high of $87.26n earlier today; Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is down -2.8% at $21.00; Stillwater Mining Co. (NYSE: SWC) is down -4.6% at $10.69; TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) is up 5.7% at $4.39; United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is down -1.8% at $78.25; and Yandex N.V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) is down -5% at $23.31.

Other standouts from today include the following stocks:

Inergy L.P. (NYSE: NRGY) is up 17% at $19.71. The company is being acquired by Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE: SPH). More coverage here.

Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) is down -20.2% at $6.16. The wireless carrier fell sharply on disappointing quarterly results. More coverage here.

Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is down -14.8% at $33.03. The technology provider beat estimates but issued weak guidance.

Stay tuned for Friday. We have noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 a.m. – GDP report
8:30 a.m. – Employment cost index
9:55 a.m. – Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Paul Ausick

Filed under: HI/LOW, Market Close Tagged: ABB, AET, AKAM, ALU, BG, BMY, COP, GD, HOG, JBLU, LEAP, LIZ, MJN, MO, NRGY, PEP, REGN, S, SPH, SWC, SWY, TASR, TLAB, UPS, XOM, YNDX