Posts for Ticker ‘CPB’

Next Week’s Top 10 Earnings on Deck (HPQ, TSN, CPB, LDK, TECD, BKS, BGP, JCG, DLTR, DE)

Earnings season has mostly wound down, but as always at least some major companies are reporting earnings.  Some are actually market-movers as well and it is a short week with earnings out only Monday and Tuesday, with a few on Wednesday.  On deck are Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Tech Data Corp. (NASDAQ: TECD), Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP), J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG), Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), and Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE).

We have included estimates from Thomson Reuters, relative data on peers and recent developments, and relative performance on each where it was applicable.
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Posted on: November 20, 2009 – 1:19 pm in Calendar, Earnings, , , , , , , , , ,

The 100 Hardest Working Brands In The World

hersheyThere are a number of ways to rank brand values. One of the most important is the level at which a brand contributes to the market value of a public company.

24/7 Wall St. asked Corebrand, the brand research and consulting firm, to look at the top 100 brands based their contribution to market capitalizaton. Using this method, the hardest working brand was Hershey (NYSE:HSY), followed  by Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

Corebrand described the process briefly to 24/7 Wall. St.

24/7 Wall St.: Corebard often refers to the brands on this list as the”hardest working brands”. How did you come to that description?

Corebrand: There are a lot of people measuring and examining the “strongest brands” or the “most valuable brands”.  Our opinion is that examining one without the other is somewhat meaningless.  How “strong” a brand is nice to know but not very relevant unless you understand how that strength benefits business.  Similarly, “value” is little more than a measure of corporate size unless you understand the drivers of that value and how to influence it. By examining the strength of the brand and it’s contribution to total market value, we can help companies and their leadership manage that strength and value over time.

24/7 Wall St.: Is there any advantage or disadvantage to having a brand value be a very large percentage of market cap in the present and as an indication of a company’s future performance?

Corebrand: The brand will need to be in balance with the rest of the company’s assets.  A company should strive to have it’s brand strong enough to fend off competitors or changing market conditions but not so strong that it becomes overly dependent on the brand as a single driver of value.  If a company can achieve and maintain its appropriate maximum strength without becoming over-dependent, it will see greater returns in bull markets and retain greater value in bear markets.

The list: Read More »

Posted on: October 20, 2009 – 5:06 pm in Research, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Unusual Suspects (APP, BRK-A, CPB, MTXX, MCO, MHP, RMBS, QQQQ, GDL, UNH)

bull-and-bear-imageIt is the weekend, albeit a long three-day weekend for Labor Day.  Earnings season is done, gone, bye-bye, but this coming week there are going to be some key events and key stocks to watch including American Apparel Inc. (AMEX:APP), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), Matrixx Initiatives Inc. (NASDAQ: MTXX), Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Rambus, Inc. (NASDAQ: RMBS).  On bigger market pundit calls, we want to watch the key ETF and ETN products of PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), the Semiconductor HOLDRS (NYSE: SMH), and Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and the Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL).  Elsewhere, there is the death of the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO).  Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) will also be key to watch because of a response to a nasty Barron’s article.

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Posted on: September 5, 2009 – 8:31 am in Calendar, Charts, Commodities, Labor & Unions, Mergers and Buy Outs, Metals, Rumors, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Offering No Haven (WMT, PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

Burning Money PicWasn’t it just last week that we were up eight days in a row on the DJIA?  And now we have a sell-the-news reaction to the recent growth numbers.  Maybe it is because we ran too far too fast and because we started pricing in robust growth rather than muted growth.  But generally when equities have stayed hot and then start to sell off in profit taking or in case things got too heated, you at least see a migration into some of the defensive stocks.  That is not the case.  In our normal 16 Defensive Go-To Stocks, only ONE was up.  If you throw in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) as the ultimate defensive stock like we usually do, then you have only TWO of 17 trading up on the day….

PEPSICO INC (NYSE: PEP) $56.1805.. Down $0.4895; -0.86%
COCA COLA CO (NYSE: KO) $48.58.. Down $0.19; -0.39%
MOLSON COORS CO. (NYSE: TAP) $47.01.. Down $0.37; -0.78%
KRAFT FOODS INC. (NYSE: KFT) $28.08..  Down $0.27; -0.95%
CONAGRA FOOD INC. (NYSE: CAG) $20.13.. Down $0.40; -1.95%
CAMPBELL SOUP CO. (NYSE: CPB) $30.86.. Down $0.50; -1.59%
HORMEL FOODS CORP. (NYSE: HRL) $37.00..    Up 0.05; +0.14%
MCDONALDS CORP. (NYSE: MCD) $55.72.. Down $0.51; -0.92%
ALTRIA GROUP INC. (NYSE: MO) $18.13.. Down $0.16; -0.83%
VECTOR GROUP LTD. (NYSE: VGR) $15.71.. Down $0.07; -0.44%
REYNOLDS AMERICAN (NYSE: RAI) $45.17.. Down $0.54; -1.18%
PROCTER GAMBLE CO. (NYSE: PG) $53.05.. Down $1.06; -1.96%
COLGATE PALMOLIVE (NYSE: CL) $71.82.. Down $0.89; -1.21%
MERCK CO INC. (NYSE: MRK) $31.79.. Down $0.64; -1.97%
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (NYSE: JNJ) $59.88.. Down $0.56; -0.92%
NOVO NORDISK (NYSE: NVO) $60.024.. Down $0.986; -1.62%

Oddly enough, Wal-Mart is the ONLY one of the DJIA 30 components trading higher this afternoon.

JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 1, 2009

Posted on: September 1, 2009 – 2:31 pm in Defensive Stocks, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades (AFL, CPB, ECL, ISIS, MGM, NE, NSC, PERY, TER, WDC)

These are the ten top Wall Street analyst calls with upgrades, downgrades, and initiations we have this Wednesday morning:

Aflac (AFL) Cut to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
Campbell Soup (CPB) Raised to Sector Perform at RBC.
Ecolab (ECL) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) Started as Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald.
MGM Mirage (MGM) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
Noble Corporation (NE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Norfolk Southern (NSC) Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill.
Perry Ellis (PERY) Cut to Neutral at SunTrust.
Teradyne (TER) Started as Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Western Digital (WDC) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
July 27, 2009

Posted on: July 29, 2009 – 7:53 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

The Trend Toward US Businesses Offering $1 Products Accelerates

bankIt has begun to dawn on more and more large companies that high-priced goods are costing them sales during the recession. Maybe the only way for them to hold onto customers is to offer some products at remarkably low prices, prices as low as $1.

The benefit of $1 items is that it keeps consumers coming back to brands which they have bought for decades but may no longer be able to afford. It also keep sales coming, even if those sales are very modest. Read More »

Posted on: May 21, 2009 – 5:29 am in Consumer Goods, , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Refuse To Participate In Rally (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

Investors flock to defensive stocks in times of trouble and and when they worry, assuming they look to stay in the market when they are worried.  But if the trend here continues, this may be one of the worst times for defensive stocks compared to the overall market.  Our universe of 13 large-cap go-to defensive stocks looks awful in relative performance and it looks like only 1 stock of the 13 has actually outperformed the overall market.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG), and Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) have performed close to the overall markets, but that is almost it.  Forget about Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) as that has been the worst of the lot.  Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) are up double digits from recent lows, but are way behind the market index readings.  Even the high and mighty McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has greatly underperformed.
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Posted on: May 7, 2009 – 5:31 am in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, Index, Technical Analysis, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Just How Bad Are Things At Campbell Soup? (CPB)

campbells-logoAfter perusing the list of 52-week lows this afternoon, there was a surprising name: Campbell Soup Co, (NYSE: CPB).  Shares are trading down over 3% and south of $25.00 late today, and the previous 52-week trading range was $25.50 to $40.85.  When you see stocks hitting 52-week lows, particularly after a 6-week rally and a week of only modest profit taking, you just have to wonder how bad things are.  We would normally consider Campbell Soup as a defensive stock, but it is trading as though it is a luxury brand that the consumer is choosing to live without.
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Posted on: April 24, 2009 – 2:44 pm in Food, HI/LOW, Trading Alert, Value Investing,

Defensive Stocks Hammered Too (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

burning-money-pic4It’s another rough trading day in the stock market.  It is bad enough that the DJIA is down over 3% to decade lows and under 7,000… But even almost all of the defensive stocks are down today.  Many of these have been absolutely bashed in recent days and weeks as you will see compared to their 52-week highs.

Symbol   Last          Change              52WK-HI
PEP    $47.13    (-$1.01; -2.10%)   $75.25
KO      $39.96    (-$0.89; -2.18%)   $61.90
TAP    $35.84    (+$0.61; +1.73%) $59.51
KFT    $22.31    (-$0.47; -2.06%)   $34.97
CAG    $14.93    (-$0.15; -0.99%)   $24.87
CPB    $26.51    (-$0.26; -0.97%)   $40.85
HRL    $31.60    (-$0.23; -0.72%)   $42.77
MCD    $52.55    (+$0.30; +0.57%)  $67.00
MO      $15.31    (-$0.13; -$0.84%)  N/A “PM”
VGR    $11.74    (-$0.67; -5.38%)   $19.45
RAI    $33.57    (-$0.01; -0.03%)   $65.01
PG       $47.40    (-$0.77; -1.60%)   $73.57
CL       $58.47    (-$1.71; -2.84%)   $80.49
MRK   $23.93    (-$0.27; -1.12%)   $45.73
JNJ    $48.39    (-$1.61; -3.22%)   $72.76
NVO   $46.51    (-$1.91; -3.94%)   $73.73

Jon C. Ogg
March 2, 2009

Posted on: March 2, 2009 – 2:15 pm in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

52-Week High Bear Market Surprises (JPM, CPB, CBSH, FFH, THS)

The 52-week lows are full and full of stocks each day lately.  In a bear market it gets harder and harder to find stocks which are on their 52-week highs.  The non-perishable food companies are easy to understand.  But when some of the 52-week highs are FINANCIAL stocks, that made us do a double-take.

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Posted on: October 1, 2008 – 4:26 pm in HI/LOW, , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Only Mixed In Stock Market Turbulence (PE, KO, TAP, KFT, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

You know it’s a rough day in the market when even defensive stocks are weak or mixed.  We are at least seeing a mixed bag from some of these. But the trend is a pretty easy one to see.  Even defensive stocks aren’t acting as a safe haven as they have in prior months.  Beer is up, tobacco is down. Food is up to mixed, but consumer products are mixed.  Below you will see how our list of "go-to defensive stocks" is showing a mixed bag:

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Posted on: September 29, 2008 – 11:45 am in Defensive Stocks, HI/LOW, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

When Defensive Stocks Fail Too (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)

It used to be that DEFENSIVE STOCKS were the way to go during periods of uncertainty and during times of market sell-offs.  But now that isn’t even working out.  After we looked at our first line defensive stocks only a piss poor reading of 3 out of 14 were up on the day.  Sure the DJIA dipped under 12,000 briefly and closed down 131.24 at 12,029.06, and the overall trend of the market is bad and feels like it wants to go worse.  To make matters worse, one of the three that are up was up because it is a takeover play currently.

PepsiCo (PEP)                $65.06    -$0.81 (-1.23%)   
Coca-Cola (KO)               $53.16    -$0.80 (-1.48%)   
Anheuser-Busch (BUD)    $61.90    +$0.70 (+1.14%)   
Molson-Coors (TAP)         $55.53    +$0.70 (+1.28%)   
Kraft (KFT)                       $30.00    -$0.32 (-1.06%)   
ConAgra (CAG)                $22.01    -$0.44 (-1.96%)   
Campbell Soup (CPB)       $33.51    -$0.25 (-0.74%)   
Hormel (HRL)                   $35.75    -$0.41 (-1.13%)   
McDonalds (MCD)            $58.21    -$1.00 (-1.69%)   
A’tria (MO)                       $20.71    -$0.01 (-0.05%)   
P&G (PG)                        $65.00    -$0.80 (-1.22%)   
Colgate Palmolive (CL)      $71.71    -$0.68 (-0.94%)   
Merck (MRK)                    $34.86    +$0.18 (+0.52%)   
J&J (JNJ)                          $64.44    -$1.15 (-1.75%)   

In an environment where consumers are spending less and less it seems that even the safe haven stocks aren’t immune as they once were.  Every one of these operations is suffering from issues that weren’t present, or not as much, in 2007 and 2006 such as a weaker consumer, higher energy costs, higher materials costs, and higher delivery/transport cost.  At a time where the market wants to buy agricultural stocks, energy and alternative energy, and defense/war stocks, the traditional names just aren’t working.  Pity.

Jon C. Ogg
June 18, 2008

Posted on: June 18, 2008 – 3:38 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top 10 Pre-Market Analyst Calls (AFL, AW, CPB, MWV, NYX, ODFL, PDLI, PCZ, SPIL, WDFC)

There are other calls out there, but these are ten of the early morning analyst calls that we are focused on this Friday 13th:

  • Aflac (NYSE: AFL) Started as Buy at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
  • Allied Waste (NYSE: AW) Raised To Buy From Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
  • Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) Raised To Overweight from Equalweight at Lehman.
  • MeadWestvaco (NYSE: MWV) Raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ: ODFL) Raised to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  • PDL Biopharma (NASDAQ: PDLI) Cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) raised to Buy at Banc of America.
  • Siliconware Precision (NASDAQ: SPIL) Raised to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
  • WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) Cut to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.

Jon C. Ogg
June 13, 2008

Posted on: June 13, 2008 – 6:51 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , ,

Investors Searching For Defensive Safe Havens (PEP, MRK, JNJ, KO, BUD, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL)

Investors usually try to find stocks where they run for cover when the stock market is in turmoil.  This Monday is no exception after seeing the Bear Stearns implosion "takeunder" and the related fall in Lehman.  Those are almost never financial stocks, and you can bet those aren’t the case today.  We keep an index of defensive stocks for crummy markets.  Usually these hold up on down days or don’t fall as much as the market in general.  Today there are very few hiding spots out of our normal go-to defensive stocks.

Defensive Stocks Higher:

  • PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) $68.67 (+$0.22; 0.32%)
  • Merck (NYSE: MRK) $41.18 (+$0.21; 0.51%)   
  • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) $63.30 (+$0.65; 1.04%)   

Defensive Stocks Lower:   

  • Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) $57.43 (-$0.10; -0.17%)   
  • Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) $45.68 (-$0.52; -1.13%)   
  • Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT)    $29.79 (-$0.08; -0.27%)   
  • ConAgra (NYSE: CAG) $21.15 (-$0.13; -0.61%)   
  • Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) $31.41 (-$0.28; -0.88%)   
  • Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) $40.16  (-$0.36; -0.89%)   
  • McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) $53.82 (-$0.96; -1.75%)   
  • Altria (NYSE: MO) $70.25 (-$1.53; -2.13%)
  • Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) $66.62 (-$0.12; -0.18%)   
  • Colgate Polmolive (NYSE:CL) $75.99 (-$0.29; -0.38%)   

Sometimes there is just no good place to hide.  The good news is that last night and in the wee hours of this morning things were looking far worse than they are right now.

Read More »

Posted on: March 17, 2008 – 9:28 am in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Show Rotation Out of Tech (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

The markets haven’t fallen apart after yesterday’s 360 point dive on the DJIA, but we are still trading a tad lower today.  Now that Cisco Systems is showing you can’t just automatically hide out in all big technology stocks, it appears that investors who want to keep equity exposure are flocking to the DEFENSIVE STOCK names.  You can see below on our ticker list of defensive stocks that only Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) is not up today out of our 17 go-to defensive stocks.

DJI            13,249.05    -50.97    (-0.38%)   
S&P500    1,473.49     -2.13       (-0.14%)
NASDAQ   2,718.11    -30.65     (-1.12%)

PEP    $60.77    +$0.81 (1.35%)   
BUD    $50.29    +$0.23 (0.46%)   
TAP    $54.25    +$0.36 (0.67%)   
KFT    $33.37    +$0.04 (0.12%)   
CAG    $23.03    +$0.02 (0.09%)   
CPB    $35.50    -$0.08 (0.22%)   
HRL    $35.16    +$0.09 (0.26%)   
MCD    $59.21    +$0.83 (1.42%)   
MO      $72.75    +$0.77 (1.07%)   
VGR    $21.89    +$0.30 (1.39%)   
RAI     $63.71    +$0.64 (1.01%)   
PG     $70.07    +$0.65 (0.94%)   
CL     $75.33    +$0.01 (0.01%)   
MRK   $54.59    +$0.39 (0.72%)   
JNJ    $64.20    +$0.29 (0.45%)   
NVO  $123.41   +$1.72 (1.41%)   

Out of the top 10 holdings in the NASDAQ 100 QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQQ), only Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) are trading up.  Unlike prior cautionary days, technology is giving back at least some of the gains today after the Cisco news last night.  It’s hard to tell a trend reversal if it is only the first or second day, but you can at least see where the money is going today (and it isn’t flocking back into financials yet).

Jon C. Ogg
November 8, 2007

Posted on: November 8, 2007 – 12:08 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stocks Show No Panic Rotation (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

With the markets down so much today on the financial stock fallout after the Citi downgrade/concern and with oil stocks listing lower after the Exxon miss, we wanted to show a brief comparison of DEFENSIVE STOCKS versus the market today.  If the market does start to get shaky, many of these defensive stock names are where traders will look to hide their equity money.  That may be even more-so the case now that the fiscal year-end window dressing trade for mutual funds has played out.

If you look below the top defensive stocks, which are all trading lower today, are by and large not down as much as the broad market but they aren’t showing any massive defensive interest either.  Of the 30 DJIA components, only 3 are positive today and they are all technology related. 

DJIA            13,727.52 (-202.49/-1.45%)
S&P500      1,527.59  (-21.79/-1.41%)
NASDAQ    2,829.27  (-29.85/-1.04%)

PEP    $73.19    (-0.53/-0.72%)   
KO      $61.63    (-0.13/-0.21%)   
BUD   $50.95    (-0.33/-0.64%)   
TAP    $55.83    (-1.40/-2.45%)   
KFT    $32.98    (-0.43/-1.29%)   
CAG    $23.50    (-0.23/-0.97%)   
CPB    $36.51    (-0.47/-1.27%)   
HRL    $36.21    (-0.27/-0.74%)   
MCD   $59.29    (-0.46/-0.77%)   
MO      $72.63    (-0.30/-0.41%)   
VGR    $21.62    (-0.26/-1.19%)
RAI      $63.49    (-0.94/-1.46%)   
PG       $69.44    (-0.08/-0.12%)   
CL       $75.03    (-1.24/-1.63%)   
MRK    $57.93    (-0.33/-0.57%)   
JNJ      $64.91    (-0.26/-0.40%)   
NVO    $122.55   (-2.14/-1.72%)

So today may be a bad day and decliners may be greatly higher than advancers, but there is not any major fear going on even if the VIX is back over 21.0 right now. Of course that can change, but that isn’t the case so far.

Jon C. Ogg
November 1, 2007

Posted on: November 1, 2007 – 12:30 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 9/14/2007 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Barron’s

According to Reuters, Intel (INTC) received antitrust charges from a branch of the South Korean government.

Reuters writes that Campbell (CPB) is seeking over $1 billion for its Godiva chocolate business.

Reuters writes that as Microsoft (MSFT) prepares for an antitrust decision for the EU, its rivals insist that the company has not changed its ways.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Goldman Sachs (GS) huge Global Alpha fund declined almost 23% in August.

The Wall Street Journal writees that the UAW picked GM (GM) as its laed negotiator meaning it will try to cur a deal with the car companies before moving to its rivals.

The Wall Street Journal writes that a group lead by the Royal Bank of Scotland is likely to win ABN Amro (ABN) over a bid from Barclays (BCS).

The Wall Street Journal reports that Verizon (VZ) has gone to court to challenege the right of the FCC to mandate that the new radio spectrum it will auction must be open to use by any device or cellphone applications.

The Wall Street Journal says Wal-Mart (WMT)  is using Subway to offer fast good in many of its stores and pushing out McDonald’s (MCD).

The Wall Street Journal reports that stents from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) work better than products from Boston Scientific (BSX).

The Wall Street Journal wirtes that Exxon (XOP) will go to arbitration to get some of its assets out of Venezuela.

The union representing writers at Dow Jones (DJ) says it a  near a deal with the publisher.

The FT reports that Google (GOOG) will call for a global web privacy policy.

Barron’s writes that Dell (DELL) will delay its quarterly filing while it finishes work on restatements.

Barron’s writes that PC shipments are rising but sales of computers to consumers is pushing pricer per units down sharply.

CNNMoney writes that Hovnanian (HOV) will offer huge discounts to sell some of its home inventory.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: September 14, 2007 – 3:22 am in Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Defensive Stock Picks Better Than The Market (September 7, 2007)

We are frequently asked about how certain basket picks perform compared to the overall market.  It has been years since anyone has claimed their stocks should gain regardless of the market because most people have smartened up to that nonsense.  But "Defensive Stocks" do perform better in general on a relative basis in down markets.  That isn’t a guarantee and that isn’t an absolute, but at least they did today.

Out of the 30 DJIA components, only J&J was up on the day.  Out of the 17 defensive stocks we gave earlier this morning, 3 of the 17 closed up.  On average of the 17 defensive stocks, if you invested in each one equally the picks would have ‘only’ been down 0.85% out of the basket.  That is better than the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. 

For whatever it is worth, it’s worth noting that ‘relative performance’ doesn’t necessarily pay bills if the market heads too far south.  Here is how the markets fared compared to the defensive stock picks:

                  CLOSE      CHANGE    PERCENT
DJIA         13113.38    -249.97     -1.87%
NASDAQ    2565.7      -48.62       -1.86%
S&P500    1453.55     -25.00       -1.69%

Tick     Close       Change   Percent
PEP     $67.98      $(0.58)    -0.85%
KO       $54.59      $(0.07)    -0.13%
BUD     $49.84      $0.14       0.28%
TAP      $89.24      $0.56        0.63%
KFT      $32.89      $(0.50)    -1.50%
CAG     $25.52      $(0.06)    -0.23%
CPB     $35.54      $(1.14)    -3.11%
HRL     $34.99      $(0.81)    -2.26%
MCD     $49.24      $(0.52)    -1.05%
MO        $67.39      $(0.88)    -1.29%
VGR     $22.98      $(0.09)    -0.39%
RAI       $63.77      $(0.36)    -0.56%
PG        $65.47      $(0.64)    -0.97%
CL        $65.43      $(0.57)    -0.86%
MRK     $49.57      $(0.90)    -1.78%
JNJ      $61.68      $0.02         0.04%
NVO     $113.00    $(0.47)     -0.40%

Jon C. Ogg
September 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 7, 2007 – 3:32 pm in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Time To Go Defensive, Again?” (PEP, KO, BUD, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, VGR, RAI, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ, NVO)

If you ever heard the old saying "Be careful what you wish for, you may get it!" it sure seems like we are there.  It also makes you wonder if it is time to go back into Defensive Stocks.  The defensive stock plays are where investors plunk their money when they are less optimistic but still want exposure to stocks.  The DJIA is down over 150 points on the day so far, yet some of these defensive stock plays are barely down. 

Today and this week is the perfect storm for what the stock market was hoping for to deliver a rate cut:

  • Job creations negative for the first time in four years
  • Alan Greenspan says this is similar to 1987 and 1998
  • Weak as could be auto sales
  • Weak home sales
  • Credit woes and delinquencies spilling over
  • mixed retail picture 

These are the ones you eat, drink, and smoke,and they tend to be around medicines and personal products. Here are the basics for defensive stock plays:

  • You have to drink. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Pepsi (NYSE:PEP) are usually a coin toss over performance versus relative value in the beverage plays.  Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD) is supposed to win because people drink more beer when they are miserable; or if you don’t mind crossing the northern border a tad you can always look at Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE:TAP). 
  • You have to eat.  Kraft (NYSE:KFT) maybe too tied to activists, Buffett, Phillip Morris, or whatever, but it’s monster play in the sector.  ConAgra (NYSE:CAG), a food giant that is fairly valued.  You can always look at Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) or even Spam-maker Hormel (NYSE:HRL).
  • McDonalds (NYSE:MCD) is deemed the best fast food play off the mid to lower income, as supposedly people will still eat out somewhere.
  • Smokers sometimes do rule.  Altria (NYSE:MO) is supposed to win since history has dictated that people don’t quit smoking when they are stressed out over job security and money.  Cramer had this as one of the TOP 2007 PICKS, but for different reasons.  You can always pick Vector Group (NYSE:VGR), or Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) as well.
  • In personal products, Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Colgate-Polmolive (NYSE:CL) tend to get into your pocketbook unless you stop shaving, washing hands, and brushing your teeth.  The choice of the two usually boils down to relative value and performance.
  • Go-to names in drug and medicine stocks are Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).  A good runner up is Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), even if it is and ADR lower in market cap and based in Denmark, as they are the major insulin play for diabetes treatments.

These are far from great exciting tech plays, but this is the strategy that traditional investors have used whenever it is time to go defensive.  As a reminder, if the stock market is going to really slide then almost everything falls with it.  Defensive stocks in theory are supposed to fall less and are the ones that traditional investors usually start tip-toeing back into first.

Jon C. Ogg
September 7, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 7, 2007 – 9:46 am in Defensive Stocks, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Pre-Market Analyst calls (July 18, 2007)

ACI cut to Hold at Citigroup.
AKAM started as Outperform at FBR.
BAGL started as Outperform at Piper Jaffray.
BTU cut to Hold at Citigroup.
CPB raised to Outperform at Bernstein.
DAC started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
DSX started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
DVA cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.
FBCM started as Buy at Jefferies.
FCL cut to Hold at Citigroup.
IMB cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
INTC cut to Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
KEYS cut to Hold at BB&T.
KEYS cut to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan.
KND cut to Underperform at Wachovia.
LDK started as Outperform at CIBC.
LLNW started as Hold at Jefferies.
LLNW started as Mkt Perform at Piper jaffray.
MBRX cut to Hold at Jefferies.
OSG started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
PX started as Outperform at CIBC.
QMAR started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
RE cut to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
RSG cut to Mkt Perform at FBR.
SNDK raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
SNY raised to Overweight at HSBC.
SSW started as neutral at Credit Suisse.
TK started as neutral at Credit Suisse.
TNP started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
TOT cut to Neutral at JP Morgan.
WLL raised to Buy at KeyBanc/McDonald.

Jon C. Ogg
July 18, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: July 18, 2007 – 6:47 am in Analyst Calls, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,