The U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.28% today, now at 83.5980. The GSCI commodity index is down 0.1% at 624.91. WTI crude oil closed up 0.9%, at $95.16 a barrel. Brent crude trades up 0.2% at $103.93 a barrel. Natural gas is down 3.3% today at about $3.94 per million BTUs following a larger-than-expected addition to U.S. inventories<<LINK>>. Gold settled down 0.7% today at $1,386.90.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA down more than 42 points to 15,233.22 (-0.28%), the NASDAQ fell more than 6 points (-0.18%) to 3,465.24, and the S&P 500 fell 0.50% or more than 8 points to 1,650.47.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including:

• Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE: ABX) was cut to ‘underperform’ at Macquarie;
• Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) cut to ‘neutral’ with a $20 price target at J.P. Morgan;
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) raised to ‘buy’ with a price target of $64 at Stifel Nicolaus;
• Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NYSE: PANW) raised to ‘overweight’ with a price target of $65 at Morgan Stanley; and
• SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) raised to ‘outperform’ at Cowen Securities.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have resulted in some price changes for reporting companies as of the last half hour of trading today:

• Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS) is up 2.6% at $91.36 after posting a new 52-week high of $92.93 earlier today;
• Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK) is down 4.1% at $36.78;
• Skechers USA Inc. (NYSE: SKX) is down 3.6% at $20.64;
• E Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NYSE: DANG) is up 5.3% at $5.20;
• Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS) is up 4.6% at $51.97;
• ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is down 14.5% at $1.89; and
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is down 2.1% at $78.21.

Before markets open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear earnings from Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Stage Stores Inc. (NYSE: SSI).

Some standouts among heavily traded stocks today include:

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is up 13.1% at $23.98, after posting a new 52-week high of $24.24 earlier today. The networking equipment giant posted strong earnings last night.

National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) is up 20.1% at $2.03. The Greek bank’s shares have risen by a third since the country’s sovereign debt rating was upgraded earlier this week.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is down 13.4% at $3.80. The chipmaker’s shares took a beating today after Goldman said that the stock was overpriced.

Stay tuned for Friday. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota is giving a speech. We have (also) noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 9:55 a.m. – University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index
• 10:00 a.m. – Leading indicators

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) releases a streaming music service. (Reuters)

JANA Partners take large stakes in Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) and Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA). (Reuters)

The European recession is the longest since World War II. (WSJ)

The Department of Homeland Security says Bitcoin is part of an unlicensed money business. (WSJ)

Japan’s gross domestic product rises 3.5% in the first quarter. (WSJ)

J.P. Morgan asks Bloomberg for data obtained by the news service from the trading terminal firm. (WSJ)

Gold plunges below $1,400. (WSJ)

Banks successfully fight regulators on whether they can trade certain types of derivatives. (NYT)

Google’s market cap rises above $300 billion. (FT)

Cisco System Inc.’s (NASDAQ: CSCO) forecast helps fuel confidence in an IT recovery. (FT)

George Soros sells much of his gold holdings before the price drop. (Bloomberg)

China is still the largest holder of U.S. debt, though its reserves of American paper fell 0.1% in March to $1.25 trillion, or 11% of the total.

In the same period a year ago, Cisco reported EPS of $0.48 and $11.59 billion in revenues. Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.49 earnings per share (EPS) and $12.18 billion in revenue. The analyst community remains somewhat muted on Cisco, although the consensus price target is up at $23.53, versus a recent pre-earnings price of $21.21 on the stock. Cisco’s 52-week trading range is $14.96 to $21.98.

Before today’s earnings announcement, Cisco’s stock traded within 3% of its 52-week high, but that mark was broached shortly after the results came out. If it holds through the open of regular trading tomorrow, Cisco will set a new high above $22 a share.

Cisco’s shares have faced serious resistance at $21.75 in March and April, and the April and May support has been around $20.25 to $20.40. We would say that Cisco has been in a narrow trading range of $20 to near $22 for all of 2013. Today’s report could easily set the stock up for a new price target.

The company’s CEO commented today:

Cisco is executing at a very high level in a slow, but steady economic environment. We are especially pleased with our ninth consecutive record revenue quarter. We are starting to see some good signs in the US and other parts of the world which are encouraging.

Cisco will offer guidance on its conference call this afternoon, but Thomson Reuters has a fourth-quarter consensus at $0.51 EPS and $12.50 billion in revenue. The year (ending in July) is pegged at $1.99 EPS and $48.67 billion in revenue.

As far as valuations are concerned for this DJIA component, Cisco trades at only about 10.6 times expected earnings, and its dividend yield is 3.2%.

The U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.29% today, now at 83.8370. The GSCI commodity index is down 0.4% at 627.87. WTI crude oil closed up 0.1%, at $94.30 a barrel following the release of the EIA’s inventory data. Brent crude trades 1.1% at $103.72 a barrel. Natural gas is up 1% today at about $4.06 per million BTUs. Gold settled down 2% today at $1,396.20.

The unofficial closing bells put the DJIA up about 60 points to 15,275.15 (0.39%), the NASDAQ rose about 9 points (0.26%) to 3,471.62, and the S&P 500 rose 0.51% or more than 8 points to 1,658.71.

There were a several analyst upgrades and downgrades today, including:

• Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG) cut to ‘sell’ at Goldman Sachs;
• BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) cut to ‘market perform’ at Bernstein;
• Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) reiterated as ‘buy’ and price target raised to $48 at Argus;
• Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) raised to ‘buy’ at Citigroup; and
• Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE: SCHW) cut to ‘underweight’ at Barclays.

Earnings reports since markets closed last night have resulted in some price changes for reporting companies as of the last half hour of trading today:

• Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) is up 3.7% at $45.60 after posting a new 52-week high of $46.49 earlier today;
• Primo Water Corp. (NASDAQ: PRMW) is down 7.2% at $1.42;
• Computer Sciences Corp. (NYSE: CSCO) is down 9.9% at $44.61;
• Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is down 4.6% at $89.46;
• First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG) is down 9.8% at $10.15 after posting a new 52-week low of $10.13 earlier today; and
• Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) is up 2.7% at $48.66 after posting a new 52-week high of $48.91 earlier today.

Before markets open tomorrow morning we are scheduled to hear earnings from Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE: DDS), Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK), Skechers USA Inc. (NYSE: SKX), E Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (NASDAQ: DANG), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).

Some standouts among heavily traded stocks today include:

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) is up 5.2% at $44.40, after posting a new 52-week high of $45.59 earlier today. The biopharmaceutical firm gave an upbeat presentation on its plans for new cancer and heart drugs.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is down 3.6% at $427.92. The PC and consumer electronics product maker is being sued by the U.S. Justice Department for leading a price-fixing scheme in the book publishing business.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is up 3.5% at $3.45. The social games producer got a big boost from a purchase of 25 million of the company’s shares by activist investor Jana Partners.

Stay tuned for Thursday. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are all giving speeches. We have also noted the following events on the schedule (all times Eastern):

• 8:30 a.m. – Consumer price index
• 8:30 a.m. – Housing starts
• 8:30 a.m. – New claims for unemployment benefits
• 10:00 a.m. – Philadelphia Fed survey
• 10:30 a.m. – EIA weekly natural gas storage report
• 4:30 p.m. – Fed balance sheet and money supply

Cisco’s stock chart offers a lot more than you might imagine with the stock within about 3% of its 52-week high. The $21.21 share price today compares to a 50-day moving average of $21.00, and that is only 1% less than the stock price. Cisco’s shares have faced serious resistance at $21.75 in March and April, and the April and May support has been around $20.25 to $20.40. We would say that Cisco has been in a narrow trading range of $20 to almost $23 for all of 2013. This could set the stock up for a new direction if there is a surprise.

Options volume is close enough to even on puts and calls to determine any solid options bias ahead of earnings. Our options review shows that options traders are braced for a share price move of up to about $0.70 to $0.75 in either direction.

Cisco has beat earnings for what may be seven or eight quarters now, but the shares have not always rallied because of guidance or because of other circumstances. Cisco remains somewhat in a turnaround and the concerns are out there that the recent down-talking by Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) will not leave Cisco unscathed from spending sequestration and lower capital spending.

If Cisco offers guidance, it will compare to the Thomson Reuters coming quarterly report consensus at $0.51 EPS and $12.50 billion in revenue. The year (ending in July) is pegged at $1.99 EPS and $48.67 billion in revenue.

As far as valuations are concerned for this DJIA component, Cisco trades at only about 10.6 times expected earnings, and its dividend yield is 3.2%.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) starts to deliver the 787 Dreamliner again. (Reuters)

Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) efforts to get companies to use its cloud computing service begins to use outside consultants to make the case to corporations. (Reuters)

HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) plans to cut another $2 billion to $3 billion in costs by 2016. (Reuters)

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) and Sharp must contend with shareholder and bond holder concerns about their futures. (WSJ)

The U.S. deficit falls below Congressional Budget Office estimates because of tax receipts, lower federal costs and dividends from firms such as Fannie Mae. (WSJ)

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) will start to improve safety at its Bangladesh suppliers. (WSJ)

Votes from shareholders show that Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is likely to hold both the chairman and CEO jobs. (WSJ)

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) will start a streaming music business. (WSJ)

Blackberry (NASDAQ: BBRY) targets emerging markets with its new phones. (WSJ)

T-Mobile US Inc. (NYSE: TMUS) raises the price of the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone 5. (WSJ)

Governor Jerry Brown claims California will have a $1.1 billion surplus this year. (WSJ)

Data from China prompt some economists to cut growth forecasts. (WSJ)

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) CEO Marillyn Hewson presses critics of the F-35, saying many of the development troubles have improved. (WSJ)

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is expected to report lower-than-estimated profits. (WSJ)

The European Union is looking into charges that oil firms set published prices of crude. (WSJ)

Revenue growth at Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) drops sharply recently. (WSJ)

The Justice Department claims Apple was a central player in e-book price fixing. (NYT)

China’s corporate debt market could match that of the United States in size. (FT)

Large Japanese carriers ANA Holdings and Japan Airlines are in talks with Airbus about the A350. (Bloomberg)

HSBC may cut 14,000 jobs. (Bloomberg)

American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE: APO) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette Woods.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital Markets.

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

Franklin Resources Inc. (NYSE: BEN) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Hartford Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Read also: 4 Stocks That Analysts Expect to Double

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

T-Mobile USA Inc. (NYSE: TMUS) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

W.W. Grainger Inc. (NYSE: GWW) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James.

XL Group PLC (NYSE: XL) was named as Bull of the Day at Zacks Investment Research.

Read also: Today’s Top Analyst Downgrades and Cautious Research Calls

Fairway Group Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: FWM) saw its quiet period come to an end and was given mostly positive research calls: started as Outperform at Credit Suisse, started as Buy at BB&T, started as Buy at Jefferies and started as Outperform at Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer strategist raises the firm’s year-end 2013 S&P 500 price and earnings targets to 1,730 for the index and $109.00 for the total earnings per share estimate.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) short interest rose 14% to 94.25 million shares. About 0.9% of GE’s float is now short.

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) saw short interest fall by 20.8% to 206.34 million shares, about 5.5% of the company’s total float.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) short interest fell 2.1% to 164.26 million shares, which represents 1.5% of the company’s float.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) saw a 1.5% rise in short interest to 52.2 million shares, which represents about 1.8% of the firm’s float.

Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: ANR) showed a rise of 13.1% in short interest, to 33.02 million shares, about 13.4% of Alpha’s float.

McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) showed a drop of 2.8% in short interest, to 11 million shares, about 15.1% of the company’s float.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) saw short interest rise by 107.2% to 41.59 million shares, or 2.4% of the company’s float.

BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) saw short interest rise by 0.2% to 164.69 million shares, or 33.3% of the total float.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) posted a 16.3% drop in short interest, to 99.42 million shares, about 1.3% of Microsoft’s float.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) short interest declined by 7.2%, to 22.35 million shares or about 1.5% of the company’s float.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) saw short interest decrease by 2.1% to 31.58 million shares or 26% of the company’s float.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) saw short interest rise by 1.2% to 58.7 million shares or about 1.1% of the company’s float.

The most interesting changes in this two-week period are the declines in short interest in Nokia, BlackBerry and Microsoft, as well as the concomitant doubling of short interest in Apple. That is a pretty clear indication that investors are betting that three players in the mobile sector are about to put more pressure on the sector leader.

Short interest in Dell declined for the third period in a row. It will be interesting to see if today’s offer from Carl Icahn and Southeastern Capital Management moves the needle at all. The new offer is certainly not one that cannot be refused.

This is the 18th year in a row that IBM has increased its quarterly cash dividend, and the 10th year in a row of double-digit percentage increases. IBM has increased its dividend by more than 600 percent since the beginning of 2000. IBM has now paid consecutive quarterly dividends every year since 1916. The dividend is payable June 10, 2013, to stockholders of record May 10, 2013.

IBM’s new share buyback plan is for $5 billion in additional funds, which is actually in addition to approximately $6.2 billion remaining at the end of March from a prior authorization. IBM will have approximately $11.2 billion for its stock repurchase program. You can expect more share buybacks yet again down the road. The company said, “IBM expects to request additional share repurchase authorization at the October 2013 board meeting. IBM has reduced its share count by a third since the beginning of 2000.”

Our problem is not the share buybacks. Big Blue has to keep buying back stock to help it get to that earnings of at least $20.00 per share by 2015. IBM has now returned over $150 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Our take was that we wanted to see at least $1.00 per share. Realistically, we wanted even more. The issue is that IBM is a Dow Jones Industrial Average component and it underyields compared to peers. The dividend from IBM with a $199 stock price will now be 1.90% at the new higher rate. This lags Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) at 2.9%, lags Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) at 3.8%, and even lags the troubled Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) at 2.6%.

IBM even underyields Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) with its 2.9% yield and Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) with its 3.3% yield. Both Apple and Cisco are very new to the dividend game.

With the Thomson Reuters consensus earnings estimates at $16.67 EPS for 2013 and $18.35 EPS for 2014, we are just underwhelmed. The dividend return is a better reward than a share buyback because the dividend is a commitment to years and years of steady predictable earnings. This represents only a 23% payout ratio for 2013 and only about a 21% payout ratio against 2013 earnings. IBM also has close to $141 billion or so in services backlogs for its future orders.

IBM shares are now up 0.4% at $199.90 after the news. Imagine if IBM really went for a peer-driven dividend yield rather than lagging so much. Big Blue just might bring in many more Warren Buffett chasers into the stock.

24/7 Wall St. praises dividends. We also want to call out the myriad of great companies that need to realize that times demand investor payouts. A few companies are still buying growth, and we have identified some of these players as well. The thesis behind offering a solid dividend is that it instills confidence in investors that the company has earnings visibility for years even when the business cycle slows.

Having a real dividend policy may also be the key to keeping nervous investors from fleeing and going into cash or Treasury bonds, which pay almost nothing these days. There are just still too many companies in denial that they are still growth companies when they need to start directly rewarding shareholders. Some companies can get away without paying out a single cent to owners because the value of growth is so strong. That list is shrinking these days. Most companies we identified are in what we would call the “Dividend Sinners” category.

Our review focuses on Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG), Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA), EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), Express Scripts Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX), Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK), Teradyne Inc. (NYSE: TER), United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Zebra Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: ZBRA). We have handicapped whether investors might expect a dividend in the near-term or long-term from each of these as well.

The first order of business is to identify some of the great companies that have started paying a dividend since we (and others) have called for them to act with dividend payments in the past year or two. A few would include Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) and NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ).