Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) Cut to Hold at Argus.
Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Alimera Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALIM) Cut to Neutral with $2 target at Credit Suisse.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (NYSE: CNP) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE: CIM) Reiterated Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) Added to Strong Sell List at Zacks.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.
Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) Cut to Sell as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Raised target to $28 from $25 at Argus.
Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) named value stock of the day at Zacks.
Northeast Utilities (NYSE: NU) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
NSTAR (NYSE: NST) Raised to Buy at BofA/ML.
Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM) Reiterated Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sourcefire, Inc. (NASDAQ: FIRE) Initiated as Buy at BofA/ML.

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JON C. OGG

What these companies can do to turn around differs greatly.  Each apparel retailer is a unique situation.  They are also effectively new companies as far as the public is concerned about three times a year on average.

Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE: ARO) is just stuck in the mud, or maybe in quicksand.  The former flying-high retailer has lost its cool and trends keep going south here.  We thought this was looking a bit busted months ago when it was still well above $20 and now shares have been flirting with $11.00.  What this teen apparel retailer can do to get back the cool is hard to predict.  Maybe they need the next teen star endorsement.  This is the strongest of our weakest retail/apparel names today.  At $11.30 the market cap is over $900 million still even with a 52-week range of $10.34 to $27.73.  The company is also expected to keep making money, but with no growth and with no outside enthusiasm.  This one has also not loaded itself with long-term debt, but that is about the only good thing to say right now.

American Apparel, Inc. (AMEX: APP) is in limbo.  The company that was supposed to be ‘the next Gap’ just imploded, management scandal, financial woes, and other irregularities just have this one down and out.  Shares have stayed under $1.00 and it is not even a situation here where a stock market recovery is assured to even bring up any support.  Can Ron Burkle fix this situation?  At $0.91, the market cap is $94 million or so and the 52-week range is $0.66 to $1.90.  American Apparel has almost zero following by Wall Street, but let’s just say that finances have not been pleasant here and the moves by outside holders do not imply that shareholders will be treated well.

Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) has almost been forgotten about and we won’t publish our nickname for this one.  Being the Chico’s-wannabe has done little to drive the company.  SHares began their slide before the recession and the long-term chart just looks like a staircase straight down.  At $1.02, the market cap is $93.5 million and the 52-week range is $0.82 to $5.89.  This one was supposed to be an e-commerce and online winner, but it turns out that this was not the case.  The company is also expected to lose money in 2011 and in 2012.

Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) has lost much of its cool and even the Lucky brand has not come to its rescue as many hoped and its flagship brands have not really helped turn the ship either.  AT $4.31, the 52-week range is $4.02 to $7.90.  Liz got crushed going into the recession and this was above $40 in 2007.  Shares are higher than in early 2009, but to say this has foundered would be an understatement.  The market cap is over $400 million and the company has too much debt and not enough liquidity for safety.  Analysts are expecting -$0.55 EPS in 2011 and are looking for $0.20 EPS in 2012.

Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) has been a shell of its former glory since the peak of the recession.  The performance today after a disappointing back to school season and after having missed prior targets in weeks and months earlier are becoming par for the course.  At $1.47 now, shares hit a 2-year low of $1.26 today.  The balance sheet is going to be a concern if Pac-Sun keeps missing the mark here.  The market cap is just under $100 million here and we are not endorsing anything positive to say at this point with another 30%+ drop on Wednesday.

The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) is in such a strange place that you have to scratch your head.  The upscale womens apparel retailer has faltered at each time it has tried to turn around.  Shares are now close to where they were at the peak selling of the late 2008 to early 2009 recession.  So much for that would be merger helping it out.  It seems nothing is working here.  Even at $2.78 it has a market cap of almost $200 million and the 52-week range is $2.33 to $13.43.  The one thing that may help is that expectations are so low and there still seems to be some hope for a turnaround next year that gets it closer to break-even again.  Liquidity remains a concern for us longer-term.

What makes apparel/retail so interesting is that the consumer can turn on a company extremely fast.  Every one of these companies was formerly something much greater.  But when those same-store sales turn south as customers go look elsewhere for the next cool, look out.

The good news is that the extreme cyclical and seasonal trends can also work for any of these companies.  One great ad campaign and one great product cycle, and any apparel retailer can be cool all over again.

Unfortunately, these companies and stocks are all in the dog house.  Some more than others.  These all share one thing in common: it will take far more than a stock market recovery to turn these companies around and to save their shareholders.

JON C. OGG

We have provided earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters, some general price and value data, and added color on each if applicable.

Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) reports Monday morning and is a rather late come-along technology earnings play in the earnings season wind-down. Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.16 EPS and $421.9 million revenues; estimates ahead for the current quarter are -$0.05 EPS and $438.54 million in revenues.  Shares closed at $28.81 on Friday versus a 2010-end close of $21.05 and the 52-week trading range is $11.86 to $29.24.  Shares are close a high here and 2011 has so far been solid for Ciena.  Chances are that the company can’t be just expected to meet and confirm guidance.  Investors will want to see above-estimate results.

Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is due on Monday after the close and we all know how volatile this stock can be on news historically.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.52 EPS and $674.92 million; estimates ahead for the current quarter are $0.36 EPS and $545.96 million in revenues.  Shares closed at $38.50 on Friday versus a 2010-end close of $35.81 and the 52-week trading range is $29.03 to $40.84.

Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) is one we saw was tentatively due with earnings on Tuesday and should be rather insightful yet again as far as just how dire the Irish banking situation is.  At a recently split adjusted price of $3.55 on Friday, its 52-week trading range (adjusted) is $2.90 to $23.75.

Diamond Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ: DMND) reports earnings after the close Tuesday and it is one of the few food companies which both grew during the recession and it is up well over 200% over the last 3-year period.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.89 EPS and $265.13 million in revenues; estimates ahead for the current quarter are $0.49 EPS and $208.67 million in revenues.  Shares closed at $50.56 on Friday versus a 2010-end close of $53.13 and the 52-week trading range is $36.72 to $55.97.

Dynegy Inc. (NYSE: DYN) is one we saw on the calendar due Tuesday with earnings but there exists an information gap for the most part here.  The problem is that management basically all left and its IEP merger agreement was terminated.  At $5.60, its 52-week range is $2.76 to $8.05.

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR) is due with earnings after the close of trading on Tuesday and shares have risen sharply in the last year.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.47 EPS and $257.93 million in revenues; estimates ahead for the current quarter are $0.48 EPS and $268.55 million revenues.  Shares closed at $43.22 on Friday versus a 2010-end close of $29.69 and the 52-week trading range is $11.98 to $46.09.  This is another one where expectations may be higher than the official consensus.

January saw multiple snow storms in the Northeast, South and Midwest, all a net drag on sales even if the weather did facilitate more close-out sales. Retail Metrics also pointed out that gas prices were up 15% from a year ago and up another 3% from December; food prices have also been climbing.  The most recent months over the last year have seen very easy comparable sales figure bogeys but Retail Metrics pointed out that January likely faces the toughest comparable store sales going all the way back to April of 2008.

The interesting aspect of the holiday season is unlike what we have seen for the last two or three years.  Clearance merchandise was limited in January due to strong Holiday sales and strong sales in December and in November are expecte3d to have pulled out sales from the January component of the fourth quarter.  More good news seems to still be adding support for retail despite the cautious January headline expectations due to higher consumer confidence and strong leading economic indicators.  There is another silver lining here: January is the least important month of the fourth quarter in retail with only 23.5% of the quarter a year ago.

Some of Retail Metrics’ expected key winners for January/Quarter same-store sales are as follows:

• Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) expected at +27.3%;
• Vera Bradley, Inc. (NYSE: VRA) expected at +10.9%;
• Zumiez, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) expected at +8.1%;
• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) expected at +7.4%.

Some of the Retail Metrics’ expected key losers for January/Quarter same-store sales are as follows:

• Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) expected at -17.9%;
• American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) expected at -7.7%;
• The Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) expected at -6.8%;
• Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) expected at -5.7%.

The new Retail Metrics January Same Store Sales Index is down another 1- basis-points and is now expected to come in at roughly +2.6% for the month.

JON C. OGG

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) is down again playing gain ‘give-back’ after last week’s huge run-up on hopes that the foreclosure moratorium and foreclosure sale moratoriums might mean that Ambac and insurers will have lower losses or be able to recoup funds.  Shares are down 3% at $0.89.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is down after beating earnings but having far less margins; the stock is down 3.6% around $306.60 on over a million shares.  Keep in mind that the initial reaction after the halt was lifted was a drop of 7%.

ARM Holdings, plc (NASDAQ: ARMH) is down marginally with Apple as a related play.  Shares are down about 3.25% at $18.49.

Cardiac Science Corporation (NASDAQ: CSCX) is being acquired by Opto Circuit for $2.30 per share.  Shares are up 8.1% at $2.27 this morning.  Keep in mind that the 52-week range is $0.90 to $4.02.

Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTIC), a penny stock, is up almost 10% at $0.45 after a positive opinion from the Pediatric Committee of the European Medicines Agency paves the way to submit for marketing approval.

Coldwater Creek, Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) is getting dunked in the cold water after it warned about lower sales.  Shares are down a sharp 32% at $3.64 on over 400,000 shares.

Infinera Corporation (NASDAQ: INFN) is tanking this morning after beating earnings but giving a soft Q4 outlook.  Shares are down about 28% around $8.88 on more than 400,000 shares.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is down in general with tech but chief architect Ray Ozzie is now out of the company.  Shares are down 2.4% at $25.82 in pre-market trading.

OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: OGXI) is down 16% at $15.75 (versus 52-week range of $11.83 to $35.33).  The company has proposed a common stock and warrant sale to raise capital.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

ACE Limited (NYSE: ACE) is up big after the reinsurer was announced as the replacement for Millipore in the S&P 500 Index.  Shares are up what appears to be almost 5% at $54.79.  With a $17.7 billion market cap, this one will be a decent ‘must buy’ stock for index funds that now have to buy the stock whether they wanted to or not.

Conceptus, Inc. (NASDAQ: CPTS) shares were down over 30% initially after the reproductive medical device company lowered guidance.  On last look shares have come off lows after the 4PM close, but the stock is still down right at 25% at $11.85 on post-4PM volume of 354,000 shares.

Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR) is showing up as a hard one to call on the surface but it may have just been a pick-off trade in the after-hours.  The after-hours drop was down to $3.40 for a 5.5% drop from the $4.60 close.  The after-hours trading volume was enough on the surface at 21,000 shares, but the issue is that this was only 150 shares for the last print and the last bid-ask spread is wide in after-hours.

The Gap, Inc. (NYSE: GPS) looks like one of the best winners in after-hours after a bad day, but it is an off trade above market for 16,000 shares at $19.77 when the bid/ask is now back to $18.20/$18.34 after a $18.22 close.  Same store sales were flat and gave investors pause today, but this print is above the intra-day high of $19.26.  This is either an error trade or a delayed report trade not even from today.

Lawson Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: LWSN) looks and feels like a name change to “Lost One.”  It met earnings expectations, but guidance is soft.  Shares are down 3.5% at $7.35 on about 70,000 shares since the closing bell.

Nanometrics Incorporated (NASDAQ: NANO) did not at all like the price drop today after Oppenheimer cut the shares to Perform with a $10 price target.  Shares fell a sharp 20% to $8.69 today on the news.  After the close, the company issued a statement that it was reaffirming “its positive business outlook for 2010 and 2011″ and the shares have recovered some.  Shares are up over 4% but still only at $9.06 in the after-hours after closing at $10.86 on Wednesday.  There have been over 100,000 shares traded since after the close.

Nu Horizons Electronics Corp. (NASDAQ: NUHC) announced record first quarter net revenues after the close of $211 million, up 42.6% from a year ago and up 12.8% sequentially; excluding Xilinx products, quarterly revenues grew 52.7% from a year ago and 14.1% sequentially.  Shares have thin after-hours trading but the stock is up 9.6% at $3.65 and that is after a gain of 8.8% during normal hours today.

ScanSource, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCSC) guided sales in the range of $573 million to $583 million, compared to $441 million for the same period one year ago and compared to $540.34 million from Thomson Reuters estimates.  Shares closed at $25.10, and shares are up 6.2% at $26.66 on 31,472 shares since the 4 PM close.

JON C. OGG

The womens’ retail outlet now expects a loss of between $0.07 per share and $0.09 per share for the quarter.  Thomson Reuters (First Call) has estimates of profit of $0.03 and $264.9 million in sales.

It also expects to end the quarter with a cashequivalent basis of roughly $70 million and retail store inventory persquare foot to decrease approximately 19% over the third quarter of2007.  The company now plans to only open approximately 15 new storesin 2009, down from our previous plan of approximately 40 new stores.

The company is noting the same issues as other retailers, although theresults sound far worse.  Dan Griesemer,president/CEO said, "Following the recent economic events, weexperienced a significant deterioration in our traffic and salesbeginning the second weekend in October…"

The company anticipates that 2009 capital expenditures will beapproximately half of the amount expected in 2008, and it anticipatesSG&A expenses to be down about $50 million from the prior year.

Coldwater Creek sounds like it is up a creek.  It is also without a paddle.

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2008

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) Started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Started as Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• AnnTaylor Stores (ANN) Started as Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Chico’s FAS (CHS) Started as Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Coldwater Creek (CWTR) Started as Sell at Goldman Sachs.
• Entropic Communications (ENTR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• International Game Technology (IGT) Cut to Market Perform at Wachovia.
• Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) Cut to Neutral at Baird.
• OmniVision Technologies (OVTI) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Cut To Neutral at JP Morgan; Cut to Neutral at Banc of America.

Jon C. Ogg
July 29, 2008

Analysts have an average price target north of $9.00, in-line with the current share price.  Chico’s FAS’ 52-week trading range is $6.70 to $27.94.  This is one that we might not normally cover, but it has been one of the uglier womens retail plays out there.  Even with a near-50% recovery from its 52-week lows, this one is still nearly down by about two-thirds from its highs. 

The short interest on this is huge with roughly 18.8 million shares, so anything looking "not horrible" will probably create a short covering parade.  When this one turns, it will turn fast.  Investors just need to know that they are no longer investing in a growth stock if they are buying stock in Chico’s.  Traders will also be watching Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR) on this news, as these are the two most compared companies after much of the same target market.

Jon C. Ogg
March 1, 2008

• Apple (AAPL) has its Macworld today.
• CECO Environmental (CECE) announced 14 new orders received totaling ~ $7.3 million.
• Charles & Colvard (CTHR) lowered guidance and announced a strategic review.
• Citigroup (C) was trading up but then went negative in early trading: -$1.99 EPS vs -$1.00 estimate, huge charges of $18.1 Billion, 4,200 layoffs included, review divestitures, cut $0.54 dividend down to $0.32.
• Coldwater Creek (CWTR) lowered guidance, again, again. Shares down 15% to new low.
• Converted Organics (COIN) announced its has secured a Rhode Island site for second organic fertilizer facility; stock down 6% pre-market.
• Dendreon (DNDN) received a European patent covering Provenge and its ACI platform technology; shares up 5% pre-market after solid gains yesterday.
• First American Financial (FAF) sees revenues of $1.9 Billion as expected but sees charges and writedowns.
• Forest Labs (FRX) $0.96 EPS vs $0.75 estimate; Revenues $998.2 million versus $946+ million estimate. Raised 2008 guidance.
• Genentech (DNA) trading down 2% pre-market after beating earnings but missing estimates on its top 4 drugs; sees 2008 EPS $3.30-3.45 vs. $3.37 estimate.
• Kellwood (KWD) $21.00 tender from Sun Capital affiliate Cardinal Integrated commences.
• Kosan (KOSN) initiated Phase II trials of alvespimycin, their second-generation inhibitor in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.
• Lifecore Biomedical (LCBM) trading up 29% after it agreed to be acquired by Warburg Pincus for $17.00 per share in cash.
• Merrill Lynch (MER) confirmed that it has agreed to issue $6.6 Billion in preferred stock.
• New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU) $0.10 EPS vs. $0.08 estimate.
• New York & Co. (NWY) lowered guidance.
• OSI Systems (OSIS) received a follow-on order from EDO Corporation for roughly $5.8 million.
• Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) guidance for Q4 EPS at least $0.53, previous guidance was $0.51 to 0.53 and $0.53 First Call; also reaffirmed FY08 EPS of $3.55 to 3.65 vs. $3.55 estimate.
• State Street (STT) issued earnings and is indicated down 1% to 3% on thin volume after noting it sees 2008 at lower end of target.
• Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) raised roughly $212 million in equity and convertible preferred securities sales; stock down 1% pre-market.
• William Sonoma (WSM) lowered guidance; stock down 14% pre-market.

Jon C. Ogg
January 15, 2008