We had many key calls that stood out this week in shares of the following: Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU); Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN); Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL); Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO); Computer Sciences Corporation (NYSE: CSC); Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE:CXW); Dean Foods Company (NYSE: DF); Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD); Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE: GNW); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN); The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD); Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (NASDAQ: MPEL); Pier 1 Imports, Inc. (NYSE: PIR); SurModics Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX); Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA); Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX); and YRC Worldwide. Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).

We have broken each of these calls out and added in color where applicable.

Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) can’t get off the floor and it keeps disappointing.  Shares even closed at $1.99 after seeing a year low of $1.92 on Friday.  Alcatel’s chart looks almost the same as the chart of late-2008, but it cannot blame the market this time.  We saw three downgrades worth noting this last week: Cut to Sell at Citigroup; Cut estimates and target at Argus; and Cut to Neutral at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) had two big calls this last week.  The main call was on Friday when Nomura issued a very unenthusiastic NEUTRAL rating.  The other call came on Thursday when Zacks added it to the STRONG SELL list.  With valuations still very high and with profit margins running razor-thin, it seems that at least some caution should prevail unless the holiday season is going to blow the doors of the hinges here.

Aixtron SE (NASDAQ: AIXG) Raised to Equalweight at Morgan Stanley.
Alcatel-Lucent SA (NYSE: ALU) Cut to Neutral at BofA/ML.
AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE: AZN) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE:CXW) named as Value stock of the day at Zacks.
Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE: EMR) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Honeywell International (NYSE: HON) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) Reiterated Buy and raised target to $95 at Argus.
Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) Started as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.
OmniVision Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE: PAA) Raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo.
Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE: RAX) Raised to Buy at Kaufman Bros.
St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) Reinstated as Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Trimble Navigation Limited (NASDAQ: TRMB) Started as Buy at Janney.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ: VRTX) Cut to Neutral at R. W. Baird.
Whole Foods Market Inc. (NYSE: WFM) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

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The Brink’s Company (NYSE: BCO), Command Security Corp. (AMEX: MOC), Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE: CXW), The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO), Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SWHC), Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR), and TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) are just some of the key companies that investors have to choose from when it comes to the safety of America.  We wanted to take a look at where these shares trade, what they are worth, and even if those crazy Wall Street analysts think they are good investments or not based upon consensus Thomson Reuters price target data.  We have not included the Homeland Security winners as those companies are motivated by a different issue.

The Brink’s Company (NYSE: BCO) may be considered more of a transportation company, but if the world was full of a bunch angels then it would not be needed.  The company is perhaps the world’s top provider of secure transportation and cash management services.   Banks and merchants have to secure, cash, jewelry, stones, and other small precious and valuable goods because there is an element of society that will literally kill for those goods.  This armed and secure transportation services operation trades with shares at $27.64 and its market capitalization is close to $1.3 billion.  Its 52-week trading range is $18.30 to $34.46. Sales in 2010 were $3.12 billion and Thomson Reuters sees 2011 revenues of $3.76 billion.  The consensus price target is roughly $36.00.

Command Security Corp. (AMEX: MOC) may have some overlaps that are not solely law enforcement, but this is a private security company with Rodgers Police, with over 6,000 armed and unarmed workers for the Secret Service, Fortune 1000 companies, and other government and/or private entities.  The difference here is that this company is tiny compared to peers/  It sometimes skips trading days.  At $1.59 it has a market cap of about $17.5 million and its 52-week range is $1.45 to $2.47.  Revenues in 2010 (March year-end) were over $145 million.  Unfortunately, this one just lost its CEO. This one is too small for most firms to cover it. 

Corrections Corporation of America (NYSE: CXW) is where you end up after being a bad boy and when you big ambition of life was “three-hots and a cot.”  The company owns and operates privatized correctional and detention facilities  in America. Only the federal government and three states have more facilities than the “Con Hotel” of Corrections Corporation with some 66 facilities that include 45 company-owned facilities with a total design capacity of approximately 90,000 beds in 19 states and the District of Columbia.  At Revenues in 2010 were 1.68 billion and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.73 billion for 2011 sales.  At $22.79, its 52-week trading range is $18.19 to $26.89 and its market capitalization is over $2.4 billion.  The consensus price target is roughly $30.00.

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) competes with Corrections Corp. as it provides outsourced services managing correctional, detention, and mental health and residential treatment facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.  At $24.58, the market capitalization is about $1.58 billion and the 52-week range is $19.01 to $25.95. Sales in 2010 were $1.27 billion and Thomson Reuters expects sales of about $1.64 billion in 2011.  The consensus price target is roughly $31.17.

Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SWHC) and Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) are two of those companies which live on both sides of the ‘crime and defense sector’ when you think about it.  The arguments for and against guns are many, but crime and public-defending cannot go without bringing in the gun manufacturers.  The companies probably do not want this addressed too much, but whether you are cop or a hardened con chances are that you are packing a gun from one of these two companies or from their rivals.  Smith & Wesson trades at $3.45, has a 52-week trading range of $3.27 to $4.60, and has a market cap of about $208 million. S&W’s sales in 2010 (different fiscal year, April) over $406 million and Thomson Reuters sees sales of over $390 million in 2011. Strum Ruger trades at $20.73, and its 52-week range is $12.66 to $24.05 with a market cap of about $395 million.  Sales in 2010 were $255.2 million and Thomson Reuters sees sales of over $278 million in 2011.  Let’s not forget about home security operations as well.  The consensus price target for S&W is roughly $5.02 and the consensus price target for Sturm, Ruger is roughly $25.00.

TASER International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) is a controversial company because its Tasers (stun guns) have been the subject of many wrongful death suits against police departments and around the devices.  What is amazing is that the one feature is rarely addressed publicly… Police sometimes have to use force.  When you are attacking the police, or when you are resisting arrest and cannot be reasoned with that you have to go to the clink, would you rather have your head bashed with a baton, would you rather have a hollow-point-.44 enter your chest and exit your back the size of an orange, or would you rather be tasered?  At $4.48, its 52-week range is $3.52 to $5.17 and its market capitalization is approximately $270 million.  The company is now expected to run at profitability.  Sales in 2010 were $86.9 million and Thomson Reuters expects sales of over $98 million in 2010.  The consensus price target is roughly $5.17 but it is thinly followed.

Not including some of the defense companies and others like Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) and Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) and Diebold, Incorporated (NYSE: DBD) makes this feel very incomplete, but we wanted to focus on pure-plays in security, weapons, prison, and others.  There are also dozens of OTC or Pink Sheet stocks that can fit in the category of crime and punishment, but we usually refrain from covering such small companies.
 
JON C. OGG

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) Raised to Outperform at FBR Capital (new target $130); Raised to Overweight at Barclays; Raised to Buy at Jefferies; Raised to Buy at Janney Montgomery.
Chubb (NYSE: CB) Cut to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
Corrections Corp (NYSE: CXW) Started as Buy at Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) Cut to Hold at Jefferies.
Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) Started as Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse.     Credit Suisse
PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) Cut to Sector Perform at CIBC; targets raised to $125 at RBC and raised to $135 at Canaccord.
Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) Raised to Overweight at Barclays.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 23, 2009

Lions Gate (LFG) US box office numbers drop. Shares down to $3.65 from 52-week high of $10.97.

Capital One Financial  (COF) Market does not like bank rescue package. Dips to $12.63 from 52-week high of $63.50.

MGM Mirage (MGM) Casino stocks downgraded. Falls to $5.47 from 52-week high of $71.96.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Since a large number of business from McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) to Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) to Kraft (NYSE: KFT) have a lot of wheat-based products, inflation in the grain is hardly good news.

In many enterprises, the cost of commodities can be passed on to consumers. In a recession, that becomes somewhat more difficult. Who is willing to buy a $15 Big Mac or $20 box of cake mix? All the money that might go toward those items is already being spent on $4 a gallon gas.

Since the price of wheat is not going to drop, at least not any time soon, it is worth reconsidering investments in fast food chains like Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and Burger King (NYSE: BKS). Supermarkets may see some margin hit as well.

Even prison stocks like Corrections Corp (NYSE: CXW) may be bothered. The cost of bread and water has just gone up.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Quaker Fabric (QFAB) Getting near a liquidation. Down to $.09 against 52-week high of $1.66.

Childrens Place (PLCE) Same store sales off 4%. Drops to $46.13 from 52-week high of $71.81.

Corrections Corp (CXW) Some insider selling. Prison business is not what it used to be. Drops to $32.17 from 52-week high of $66.50. Stock split today.

Douglas A. McIntyre